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Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL; Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet. FantasyBook is more traditional than what you may be used to from other fantasy sites, offering you Fantasy Point lines for pitchers and hitters. Choose whether you think they will score Over or Under that set line, and choose your bet. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Charlie Morton vs. Madison Bumgarner
While they're both ageless veterans and are gifted with incredible matchups, Morton is the much better pitcher overall and I'm siding with him tonight. Mad-Bum put up -1 and 2.66 FPTS in his two starts, while Morton scored 3 and 6.33 FPTS in his pair of starts.
Manaea opened the season with two rough innings in relief against the White Sox, and while his second start went better against the Royals, he didn't receive the win bonus in that one, either. His advanced metrics are terrible across the board, so I don't even care that he's facing an awful Tigers lineup tonight. Cortes is miles ahead of Manaea in talent, and he'll put up enough points against the Twins to get the job done tonight.
Aaron Judge vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Judge is due for a homer any game now, and what better time to make it happen than tonight? He'll face Louie Varland, the #10 prospect in the Twins system who has five MLB starts to his name. He's a fastball-heavy pitcher, so Judge will have his chances at smacking one out and crush Chisholm Jr.'s score in the process.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Charlie Morton (OVER), Trevor Williams (UNDER), Nestor Cortes (OVER)
RIVAL has a unique scoring format for pitchers. Strikeouts mean nothing except that they aid the IP total. A Win is 4 points, IP is 1 point, and ER is -1 point.
So IP-ER is the baseline. Then determining the possibility of securing the W for the bonus 4 points will almost always catapult a decent pitching line to be over ~6 points.
Morton has been knocked around a little bit in his first two starts, but he faced a few tough lineups in the Cardinals and the Padres. He's still limiting hard contact, and I fully expect his strikeout rate to start moving closer to his 26.8% career average as he accumulates starts. That begins tonight against a terrible Royals lineup that holds a .587 OPS (second-worst), .262 wOBA (second-worst), and 25.1% K% (seventh-highest) against right-handed pitching this season.
Trevor Williams has a 5.16 ERA, doesn't strike anyone out, and has some inferior Statcast metrics. He took advantage of a weak Rockies' lineup and notched a win in his last start, but he's facing the Guardians (5.3-run implied total), and I don't see any way he hits his win bonus and goes over his fantasy scoreline tonight.
"Nasty" Nestor Cortes isn't showing the same level of skill we saw from him last season, but he has been sharp through two starts and holds a 2.61 ERA (3.88 xERA) over 10 and 1/3 innings. Most importantly - at least when it comes to playing on RIVAL - he's 2-0 through his two starts. The Twins hold a low 3.8-run implied total tonight, and with Louie Varland on the mound for the Twins, Cortes should enjoy enough run support to get his W.
Byron Buxton (UNDER), Jake Fraley (UNDER), Masataka Yoshida (UNDER)
Hitting on RIVAL is much more standard. One point for single, four points for a home run, one for a run, and one for an RBI.
Buxton has only hit his OVER once in his last five games, and Nestor Cortes is a top-tier starting pitcher. With the Twins projecting for just 3.8 runs tonight, I'm out on most of Minnesota's bats.
Fraley hasn't been producing lately, either, as he has gone under his RIVALS points line in six of his last seven games. Taijuan Walker isn't the most imposing starting pitcher matchup for him, but I'm siding with him and the Phillies bullpen over a struggling Fraley tonight.
Yoshida holds a .216/.356/.324 line with one homer and six RBI through 37 at-bats this season. Do you trust him to exceed his 3.44 FPTS line against a pitcher in great form (Patrick Sandoval) tonight? I sure don't.
Play the MLB FantasyBook Over/Under and Challenges Contests Now on RIVAL Fantasy
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