Return of the Aces: Are These Big Arms Finally Bouncing Back?

July 29, 2023

Tommy Bell evaluates four veteran starting pitchers who had slow starts to their seasons to help fantasy managers decide if each pitcher has turned the corner for good in 2023.

Hey again, RotoBallers! It's hard to believe we're bringing July to a close, and we're ready to jump into August on Tuesday. I hope this time of year finds you in the top half of your fantasy baseball leagues as we make our way down the home stretch of the season. Inconsistent bats and pitcher injuries have me on the outside looking in, but perhaps these last two months have something special in store.

One trend that has become apparent thus far in 2023 is vast inconsistency among typically trustworthy starting pitchers. Some veterans like Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Cease, and Yu Darvish have left fantasy managers wondering if these high-priced arms will ever get back into their groove.

Well, each one of those aforementioned "studs" is showing life. Can we trust that they'll settle into consistent effectiveness over their next eight to 10 starts in these last two months? Let's take a deeper, analytical look in hopes of taking a stance on that exact question!

Corbin Burnes - Milwaukee Brewers

After elite numbers throughout his 2020 and 2021 seasons, Corbin Burnes saw a bit of a jump in his home run rate in 2022. This was to be expected after hovering in the 0.35 HR/9 range for two seasons in a row. Many fantasy managers came to grips with that becoming more of a norm for the 28-year-old in his third full season with the Brew Crew. However, they likely didn't expect to see a staggeringly low 8.49 K/9 rate through April, May, and June.

An elite strikeout rate (or at least a double-digit K/9) is something Burnes needs to be effective for Milwaukee and for his fantasy managers to get value from his draft position. His xFIP remained relatively stable in the 4.20 range. However, the lack of strikeouts along with his consistent walks and occasional long balls led to Burnes only having three scoreless outings in his first 16 starts of the season. Fortunately, the former fourth-round pick in 2016 figured some things out at the start of July.

In his last five starts this month, Burnes' K/9 rate jumped to a much more recognizable 11.45. This was in large part to a 13-strikeout outing against the Cincinnati Reds. He walked fewer batters this past month as well while allowing just one long ball in the process. Strangely, three of those five starts came against the Reds (thanks to, clustered divisional series and All-Star Break). However, the Reds have been a tough offense to crack this season, so there's nothing to scoff at there.

Burnes has been relying more heavily on his cutter during this stretch (54% usage in July) while mixing in his curveball and changeup as the swing-and-miss finishing pitches. The updated approach has been strong.

I'd be comfortable trusting that Burnes remains in this 10.5-11 K/9 range the rest of the way rather than the sub-9.0 range he was idling in to start the year. A few more homers may creep back in during August and September, but Burnes should remain a top-10 starting pitcher with top-five upside the rest of the way.

Verdict: He's Back!

Gerrit Cole - New York Yankees

The 32-year-old Gerrit Cole boasts a very similar season trajectory as the aforementioned Burnes. In the first three months, Cole also hung out below 10 K/9. He had just two double-digit strikeout performances to his name, one in his debut and the other in mid-April. Just like Burnes, Cole had only one scoreless outing in May and June combined. Yikes!

Home runs plagued Cole in May but didn't cause much issue in April or June. A 3.84 xFIP in the first half of the season showed that despite the low strikeouts, the perennial Cy Young contender was still on his game. So where were the swing-and-misses?

The 2011 first-overall pick finally answered that question in each of his last two starts. He collected 11 strikeouts at Coors Field against the Rockies followed by 10 strikeouts at home against the Royals. Now, these are by no means dangerous lineups, but the back-to-back jump in Ks is enough to get us excited. Cole has shown a willingness to turn to his cutter more often in a few recent starts. This may be the key to keeping hitters off balance for these last two months of 2023.

We'll have to wait and see how Cole fairs against a tough Orioles lineup on the road on Friday to finish off the month of July before we truly come to a verdict. That game begins in 90 minutes as I draft this paragraph. Assuming he can notch at least eight strikeouts in this one, I'm ready to say the steady stud is back in his rhythm. There's rarely a concern when it comes to Gerrit Cole after all. As long as he's not pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Verdict: It appears he's back! (Let's see what happens in a big test on Friday 7/28)

Editors' Note: Cole went seven scoreless innings against the Orioles on Friday night, striking out five without walking anyone.

Dylan Cease - Chicago White Sox

The 27-year-old Dylan Cease, like Burnes, is pitching in his third full season for the Chicago White Sox. A heavy fastball/slider barrage with the occasional curve ball and changeup mixed in has resulted in the 2014 sixth-round pick becoming a reliable innings-eater with a big strikeout upside.

For the first two and a half months of 2023, Cease dropped a 9.85 K/9 rate compared to his rates above 11 K/9 in each of the two seasons prior. That's not a huge red flag for a small sample size, but the 4.14 BB/9 mixed with a 4.34 xFIP was starting to get alarming.

Cease had just one scoreless outing in his first 14 starts, and he only made it six full innings in six of those 14. The walks were killing the young flame-throwers rhythm and longevity. Fantasy managers were getting worried about the lack of quality starts from Cease.

Three massive starts at the end of June saw Cease amass 29 strikeouts over the course of 17.1 innings. On top of that, the walks started to come down, as he has managed to get his BB/9 rate below 3.00 over his last eight outings. While high pitch counts have still kept Cease from eclipsing that six-inning mark, the return of the strikeout upside and the calming of the free passes have alleviated some stress from fantasy managers' shoulders.

Cease has maintained his top-20 status in the starting pitcher ranks with this month-and-a-half bounce back. However, the lack of scoreless outings and inability to pitch deep into games keeps Cease a tier below the first two names on this list. Even so, Cease is a trustworthy arm in a good pitcher's park and division. There's plenty of value there.

Verdict: Teetering between Solid Starter and STUD

Yu Darvish - San Diego Padres

Lastly, the most volatile pitcher of the bunch comes in the form of 36-year-old, softer-throwing Yu Darvish. Coming into his 11th season, there was preseason concern that the veteran was starting to lose his stuff, as evidenced by a 1.66 K/9 drop from 2021 to 2022. A solid 3.58 xFIP paired with a very low 1.71 BB/9 rate kept some fantasy managers optimistic that it was simply a blip on an otherwise rock-solid radar.

Unfortunately, Darvish not only confirmed the strikeout concerns in the first three months of 2023, but he also ballooned his walk rate back up to 2.81 while also seeing his HR/9 rate increase to 1.13 in his first 14 starts. A low left-on-base percentage and a relatively strong xFIP showed some potential regression to come, but an illness in late June put the turnaround on hold.

The 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up returned on July 7th, and his last four starts have been a mixed bag. Darvish followed up a mediocre three-run outing against the Mets with two great outings against the Phillies and Blue Jays. In these outings, he struck out 16 hitters in 12 combined innings while allowing just one run. His most recent start against the Pirates resulted in four long balls though, and the walks have jumped even more in that four-game July stretch.

It appears the command is waning for Darvish, and if he's not going to be missing bats nearly as much as he did during his glory days, then the hard contact will likely increase as well. More walks, fewer strikeouts, and the occasional homer barrage is a bad combination for an aging starter like Darvish.

There's not much you can do except hold on at this point. I'd be hesitant to start him in tough matchups and/or hitter-friendly conditions. It's safe to drop Darvish out of the top 30 starting pitchers at this point until further notice.

Verdict: Still way too inconsistent. Play the matchups.

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