Relief Pitchers Deeper Dive - Week 3

Today and every Tuesday moving forward throughout the 2018 MLB season, we will take a deep dive into some of the lesser-owned relief pitchers on the market that are worth keeping tabs on.

This can be a good tool for those in deeper holds leagues, although any pitcher in a position to make a move on their respective team's closer job will get priority.

For week three, we will take look at four relievers that may have some sneaky deep-league value, especially in holds leagues.

Under-the-Radar Relievers to Watch in Week 3

Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee Brewers - 1% owned

While Matt Albers and Jacob Barnes have been given the save opportunities thus far following the injury to Corey Knebel, Jeffress has continued to be the teams most underrated reliever to this point. Albers has gotten off to a rocky start as the teams closer, allowing six hits and two earned runs (one HR) in 3.1 innings and is by no means locked into the job. Barnes struggled in his only chance to close out a game, and despite pitching well since, I'd be surprised to see Craig Counsell go back to him in the 9th anytime soon. So why not give Jeffress a shot? He has experience (27 saves for the Brewers in 2016) and while he lacks the swing and miss stuff that Barnes and Josh Hader may have, but he has posted groundball rates over 58% since 2014 and walk rates under 3% in that time span, with last season being the only exception. The jump in that walk rate last season (4.68%) was very uncharacteristic and likely the major factor in his ERA ballooning to 4.68 when he hadn't seen a season over 2.81 since 2012. His HR/9 also skyrocketed to 1.38 last year, with his previous high mark being .66. Basically, it seems like last season could be more of an outlier than a trend, and positive regression is not just a possibility this season, but likely. Factor in that one more Albers meltdown could be the end of him as the teams closer, and we could see Jeffress working the 9th inning in short order, capable of providing you with a sub-three ERA and plenty of saves.

Phil Maton, San Diego Padres - 0% owned

I remember being on the Phil Maton hype train last season when he was called up, expecting him to take over as the teams closer by years end. That obviously didn't happen as Brad Hand ran away with the job and Maton, to put it nicely, go progressively worse. He was trying to get away with his fastball too often, and while a nice offering, it just isn't that overwhelming to MLB hitters. This year though (four innings), he is throwing his slider almost 20% more of the time which is a great trend, hopefully, one he can keep up. Despite beginning the year in AAA, it's nice to see Maton's usage so far, with his last outing coming in the 8th inning with a run one lead. There's probably still going to be some bumps in the road, but Maton can be a nice source of holds and strikeouts for now and also a stash for saves if the Padres were to sell high on Hand.

Shane Carle, Atlanta Braves - 0% owned

Carle won out on the last bullpen spot in the Braves bullpen and has subsequentially rewarded the Braves by being one of if not the most productive member of their pitching staff to date. There's really nothing special about him, his fastball that he throws 50% of the time sits around 94/95  and he mixes in an average slider and changeup about 20% of the time each. He has proven to be a good innings eater, however, and one that can limit hard contact with the best of them. With Arodys Vizcaino struggling mightily right now, it's certainly within reason we see Carle start earning more hold opportunities, which puts him on the radar in deep hold leagues.

Tayron Guerrero, Miami Marlins, 0% owned

Disregard the 7.27 ERA for a second and just hear me out. Yes, even Guerrero's minor league numbers aren't that exciting either, but behind the numbers, there are some things that stand out to me that suggest there is the upside of a dominant reliever here. The most obvious of theses would be how he is 6'8 and can touch 100 with his fastball and a slider that can be filthy at times. Despite being hit around often in the first week, things have quieted down for him this past week, where he had five strikeouts over 3.1 innings, allowing just one hit and one walk while picking up 2 holds. His problem has always been inconsistency, primarily due to his mechanics which has led to absurdly high walk rates, but if he ever does figure it out, there's Dellin Betances-esque upside here. I don't expect him to become that, there's probably about a 1% chance, to be honest, but he is still someone I am keeping a close eye on in deeper/dynasty formats.

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