Red Zone Risers, Fallers - Mike Evans, Mike Williams, Josh Jacobs

October 26, 2019

Richard King looks at red zone risers and fallers to identify players with higher fantasy football scoring potential in Week 8, based on touches and opportunity in the red zone.

We are now entering the middle of the season and teams have shown their hand with their play-calling tendencies. In particular, the red-zone usage of most players has taken shape.

RotoBaller's Premium Red Zone Sleepers tool can give you a sense of who is being utilized more in the all-important area of the field to provide more scoring potential. A preview of the tool and the top players in red-zone touches is shown below.

Just like targets are the lifeblood of a receiver's value in PPR leagues, red zone touches are the most relevant factor to consider for standard leagues. Each week, I will identify some risers and fallers based on their red-zone touches, and what that means for your team.

Red Zone Risers

RUNNING BACKS

Aaron Jones (RB, GB) - 32.9% Red-zone touch%

The Green Bay Packers running back is certainly the team's primary option in the red zone this season. Jones has had 23 touches in the red zone with Jimmy Graham second on the team with 10. Equally, Jones has converted around a third of his touches into touchdowns, equaling the contribution of everyone else on the team combined.

With the Packers missing several receiving options through injury, including elite receiver Davante Adams, Jones is likely to continue to be heavily involved in the team's red-zone plans. Even if the team continues to pass in the majority of their red-zone plays (they currently pass on 61.4% of their attempts), Jones should have enough RZ target share to remain a consistent scorer.

Josh Jacobs (RB, OAK) - 41.5% Red-zone touch%

The Oakland Raiders have established themselves as a running offense, and behind their impressive offensive line that I covered in my rankings article recently, there is no reason to change that blueprint. Jacobs is heavily utilized in the red-zone but has been largely inefficient with those touches so far this season. Jacobs has converted his 22 touches into four touchdowns, but with the heavy involvement he has that number should increase.

The Raiders struggled mightily on offense last season and have come a long way. While they aren't one of the most high-powered offenses in the league, they are able to move the chains and get into the red zone. Currently the team ranks 22nd in the league in red-zone plays, but they have been through their bye week already.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Allen Robinson (WR, CHI) - 21.6% Red-zone touch%

Robinson is one of the only players that can be trusted in Chicago at the moment. David Montgomery hasn't been the effective running back that fantasy owners would have hoped for. In fact, the entire Chicago Bears offense isn't the same as it was last year. The Bears offensive line is one of the worst in the league, putting immense pressure on their quarterback and running back contingent.

Despite the struggles of the offense, Robinson has shown himself to be an effective weapon. He is currently leading the league in wide receiver utilization in the red-zone attracting over 20% of his team's plays. However, part of that reason is that the Chicago Bears have only run 37 red-zone plays this season, with only the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets having fewer. If Mitch Trubisky is able to recapture his form, then Robinson is likely to have an opportunity to impress with the team passing the ball on 59.5% of their red-zone plays.

Mike Evans (WR, TB) - 20.0% Red-zone touch%

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense struggled in their last matchup against the Carolina Panthers and are now through their bye week, so now would be a perfect time to buy Mike Evans.

Evans has had 11 red-zone touches this season, which is only bettered on the team by Ronald Jones II, who has 12. That ranks him second at the position for red-zone utilization, behind the aforementioned Allen Robinson. Unlike Robinson, however, Evans does face competition in the red-zone on passing downs with Jameis Winston utilizing Chris Godwin this season, as well as his favorite tight end Cameron Brate. Godwin has had six touches, converting four of them into touchdowns.

If Godwin continues to be effective in the red-zone then it's likely he starts to get more attention from defenders, allowing Evans to utilize his big body.

TIGHT END

Austin Hooper (TE, ATL) - 12.5% Red-zone touch%

The Atlanta Falcons are a team that needs to score multiple touchdowns to have a chance at winning the game- their defense is just not able to keep them in games otherwise. Hooper is now a big part of what the team does on offense and is enjoying a great season this year. The tight end has also enjoyed success in the red-zone this season, with four touchdowns from his seven touches. With Mohamed Sanu traded to New England, that leaves even more targets on the table for Hooper to gobble up.

Red Zone Fallers

RUNNING BACK

David Montgomery (RB, CHI) - 34.5% Red-zone touch%

It feels odd to include a player that has had around 35% of his team's red-zone touches as a faller. However, the biggest red flag for his value is the offense struggling to get into the red-zone at all. Currently, the Chicago Bears rank 30th in the league in red-zone plays. Only the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets rank below them.

The rookie running back has been entrusted with the ball ten times in the red-zone converting two of them for touchdowns, which isn't the most efficient conversion rate. The inability of the team to create red-zone opportunities is likely to limit the ability of the running-back to score touchdowns this season.

WIDE RECEIVER

Mike Williams (WR, LAC) - 12.7% Red-zone touch%

The Los Angeles Chargers offense isn't what it used to be while the team was in San Diego, but it is still effective.

Melvin Gordon has returned to the team and looks to be struggling behind the offensive line, which gives an opportunity for the pass catchers on the team. The Chargers pass on 63.5% of their plays in the red-zone.

All of this is positive for Williams, so why is he in the fallers? The biggest issue is that he primarily lines up on the outside, far away from quarterback Phillip Rivers. With the struggle that the offensive line has, it doesn't give a lot of time to allow plays to develop. That gives an advantage in opportunities to Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry.

Williams is a talented big-bodied receiver but could struggle to get on the scoresheet with the competition for targets.

TIGHT END

Delanie Walker (TE, TEN) - 11.1% Red-zone touch%

The Tennessee Titans continued with what worked for them last season. Play effective defense and give Derrick Henry all the touches he can handle. That is emphasized in the red-zone where Henry has 20 of the available 45 touches for the team.

And that opportunity is part of the problem, the team has only run 45 plays in the red-zone so far this season. Walker is second on the team in touches this season with five. That drop off in touches from Henry and the lack of opportunities in the red-zone is the reason Walker finds himself in the fallers.

Red Zone Sleepers

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