X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Reality Check: Why Your RB Sleepers Won't Wake Up

Pierre Camus challenges fantasy football owners to face reality when it comes to their favorite preseason ADP sleepers that could actually turn out to be busts in 2019.

"Embrace reality, even if it burns you." - Pierre Berge

This quote is ironic for a couple of reasons. First of all, this is a column about fantasy sports. Fantasy - the very definition reads, "the power or process of creating especially unrealistic or improbable mental images in response to psychological need." An escape from reality. That's what we want, isn't it? So why ruin it with a big dose of reality? Because the reality of winning is a lot better than losing. It's also ironic that the man who said this quote spent years trying to suppress a documentary about his life but that's neither here nor there... The point is that we can't let our cognitive biases get the best of us if they blind us to what's truly important.

Perhaps the most poignant quote in this vein came from the great philosopher, Terrell Owens. "Align your expectations with reality and you will never be disappointed." With that, I urge you to lower the bar a few rungs because I'm about to make sure you check yourself before you wreck yourself because some of these takes could be bad for your health. Oh, and I'm not coming real stealth, so be prepared.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Devin Singletary Isn't an RB1

This goes for both fantasy and reality. Guess who the real starter is in Buffalo? That's right, none other than Frank "The Highlander" Gore. Despite Kenyan Drake averaging 5.0 yards per carry and showing great hands as a receiver over his first two seasons, Gore still outrushed him by approximately four carries and 18 yards per game in 2018. That was low for Gore, who had averaged at least 16 rush attempts per game for the past 12 seasons in a row!

I doubt Gore will go much higher than the 10-carry mark in terms of rush attempts this year but let's assume he stays in that range. T.J. Yeldon will also take a few carries away in addition to his work on passing downs. His low mark was 4.9 A/G in 2017 with the Jags. How much is left for Singletary? The Bills averaged 29.25 rushes per game last year. If you follow my complex equation above, 29-10-5=14. That means 14 carries a game for Singletary. He averaged 5.2 Y/A playing in Conference USA last year, so it's safe to assume a small drop-off. If he does well enough to stay at 4.5 Y/A, that would mean 63 rushing yards per game, good for a total of 1,008 for the season.

That's not bad... if you drafted him in the eighth round or later. It's not good if you spent a fifth-rounder on him after the Shady trade and got carried away. The fact is that guys like Phillip Lindsay and Jordan Howard have already proven they can put up better numbers, guys like Derrius Guice and Matt Breida are more talented, and guys like Austin Ekeler and Latavius Murray are in better situations. I'm not buying Singletary as anything more than a Flex play or low-end RB2 in a 14+ team league.

 

Dare Ogunbowale is not the starter in Tampa

Read the following tweet closely...


Yes, Dare Ogunbowale will have a big role on the Bucs this year. On special teams.

Sure, he'll play on third downs, maybe even see a few goal-line carries and rumble in for the occasional score, but if you think that is enough to make him fantasy-relevant, you are either in one of those really deep 32-team leagues or you drafted very, very poorly.

Not convinced? How about this...


Impressive? Yes. Inspiring that a breakout season is about to happen? I don't think so. You can love his story, love his name, love his hair, love his sister but don't love his fantasy value.

Look, I hate Tampa's backfield situation as much as anyone but not enough to convince myself that there is a special teams player who has struggled to stay in the league that can leapfrog Peyton Barber just from showing up. Ronald Jones II, I'm not worried about, but Barber is still the RB to own in Tampa, sadly.

 

Houston's Backfield Belongs to... Nobody

Duke Johnson's days as a top-20 fantasy running back value lasted all of three weeks. The Texans cut their undrafted free agents Karan Higdon and Damarea Crockett in order to sign Carlos Hyde. While I'm not the biggest Hyde fan and realize he has limitations, he wasn't brought in just to watch Duke take every snap. Hyde will get the early-down work while Johnson plays on third down and obvious passing situations.

Some fantasy owners just won't accept this. His ADP in the past week is still in the early fifth round, above Phillip Lindsay, Austin Ekeler, and Derrius Guice! Johnson was never going to be a workhorse back regardless of circumstances. He's not even sure if he would have been capable of doing so. “I’ve always been ready (to be an every down back), especially mentally. Physically, I guess we’ll find out,” Johnson Jr. told reporters on Thursday. No, we won't.

He struggled with injuries (and fumbles) throughout his illustrious college career and has managed to stay fresh in the NFL because of his light workload. For that reason, Johnson will play the same role he did in Cleveland early last year, when he averaged just over three carries and two catches per game, good for a 45.8 yard average. Meanwhile, Hyde averaged 19 carries per game. If anything, Hyde could get even more usage than he did in Cleveland, as Houston runs the ball more frequently.

With this comes some good news: Deshaun Watson and his WR fam should feast this year. In 2018, Houston ran the eighth-fewest passing plays (537) and had the fifth-highest rushing play total (468). If Watson could put up nearly 4,200 yards and 26 TD with that split, imagine if he gets to throw the ball 35-40 times per game as opposed to just 31.6? With an iffy backfield, a lesser defense thanks to the loss of Jadveon Clowney, and a better receiving corps, Watson is a solid top-five QB and all four wideouts could have weekly value, if they manage to actually stay healthy simultaneously.

 

Rashaad Penny Is Not and Will Never Be a Thing

I'm not sure if he qualifies as a sleeper based on the hype he's received the past two draft seasons but given the fact he's never actually produced, he must be considered one. Penny was an eighth-round pick this year, coming off the heels of a rookie campaign in which he averaged 4.93 yards per carry. The problem is he only carried the ball 85 times because Chris Carson was the better runner, as was Mike Davis most of the time. If you pull out the old "take away his best game" trick, Penny's average drops dramatically down to 4.26 yards per carry.

He did show signs of life late in the year but is it enough to think he'll somehow earn a bigger role? Based on what we've seen and heard this preseason, not at all. I don't care how much you think preseason doesn't matter, you can't ignore the fact Penny looked terrible and barely made it past the line of scrimmage most of the time. He carried a total of 20 times for 35 yards, good (bad) for 1.8 Y/A. Chris Carson had no such trouble, averaging six yards a pop. Sure, small sample size, but isn't this just a carryover from what we saw most of last year?

NextGen Stats confirm my take too. Penny spent the third-most time behind the line of scrimmage after hand-off, behind only Carlos Hyde and Tarik Cohen. Any trouble he might have finding holes is inexcusable considering he saw the fifth-lowest amount of stacked boxes (8+ defenders) at 10.59%. By contrast, Carson's rate was double that at 21.86%, yet his rushing average was almost as high despite a much bigger workload in tougher circumstances. Just to drive the final nail in the coffin, Penny saw just nine red zone rushes all last season while Davis took 21 and Carson 41.

Ultimately, Penny will get more opportunities since Mike Davis is gone and the Seahawks will want to prove they didn't waste a first-round pick to acquire a running back they didn't need. More touches will result in slightly higher production but I'm not holding my breath for a second expecting him to break out. That's why instead of fading Carson like others have, I doubled down on him this year and advise you to do the same.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Landon Knack12 mins ago

Could Start On Wednesday Against Nationals
Cristopher Sánchez18 mins ago

Cristopher Sanchez Solid In No-Decision
Jasson Domínguez22 mins ago

Jasson Dominguez Heads To Bench For First Time This Year
Kerry Carpenter27 mins ago

Trey Sweeney Out Versus Lefty
Juaron Watts-Brown30 mins ago

Strikes Out Career-Best 10 Batters
Tyler Glasnow32 mins ago

Hit Hard By Phillies
Jarlin Susana39 mins ago

Tallies Seven Punchouts In Double-A Debut
Corbin Burnes46 mins ago

Handed First Loss
Maikol Escotto52 mins ago

Swipes Four Bags, Tallies Two Doubles
Derlin Figueroa58 mins ago

Goes Deep Twice On Sunday
Griffin Jax1 hour ago

Can't Hold On To Nail Down Save
Cole Carrigg1 hour ago

Launches First Double-A Home Run
Chase Meidroth1 hour ago

Stays Hot With Three-Hit Game
Quinn Priester1 hour ago

Shipped Off To Milwaukee
Lawrence Butler2 hours ago

Hits First Home Run Of 2025 On Sunday
Brenton Doyle2 hours ago

Homers, Drives In Four On Sunday
Yordan Alvarez3 hours ago

Hits Home Run No. 1, Collects Three RBI
Kyren Paris3 hours ago

Homers To Continue Hot Start To 2025
Mike Yastrzemski3 hours ago

Hits A Three-Run Home Run On Sunday
Chase Dollander3 hours ago

Gets A Win In His Debut
Nolan McLean3 hours ago

Strikes Out Eight In Season Debut
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP
10
10
11
11
12
19
13
22
14
24
15
25
16
29
17
39
18
40
19
41

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
1
1
2
3
3
7
4
11
6
14
7
15
8
18
9
19
10
20

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyler Soderstrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Risers, Fallers and Buys/Sells - Chris Clegg's Outlooks for Week 2

Welcome back RotoBallers to my dynasty fantasy baseball risers, fallers and buys/sells for Week 2 of the 2025 MLB season. We are just one week into the MLB season and three games into most minor league levels, but there is still plenty of baseball to talk about. I mean, we have already had some prospects […]


Jordan Lawlar - Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Draft Sleepers, MLB Rookies

Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Prospects to Stash (Redraft): Eric Cross' Rookie Rankings for Week 2

With Low-A, High-A, and Double-A starting this past Friday, we now have all four minor league levels in full swing as thousands of players aim to become fantasy-relevant players. Or just reaching the Majors in general. Same thing. We had several notable prospect promotions last week, including Chase Dollander and Zac Veen getting the call […]


Kodai Senga - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Starts and Sits - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball (April 7 - April 13)

The MLB season is off and running, and so are we with our starting pitcher starts/sits for fantasy baseball Week 2- Monday, April 7 through Sunday, April 13. We've gotten a couple of looks at most pitchers by now, but the sample size remains small, which means we remain diligent! Bookmark us for every start/sit option […]


Corbin Carroll - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB News, Draft Kit

MLB DFS: DraftKings, FanDuel Expert Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks For Today (4/7/25)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! My name is Brandon, and this is my debut with the MLB team! You can find me and my work with the NHL and Soccer teams, respectively! Tonight, we have a seven-game slate, and the currently live top-three highest implied team totals are: San Diego with 4.7, Arizona with 4.5, and New […]


Riley Greene - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB News

Fantasy Baseball Players To Watch For The Week Ahead (April 7 - April 13)

With the first week in the books, welcome back to my weekly Players to Watch for the Week Ahead series for 2025 as we look ahead to the week of April 7 - April 13. In this article, I'll look at players like Logan O'Hoppe, Riley Greene, Spencer Schwellenbach, and others. For those who are not […]


Felix Bautista - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Well-Known Fantasy Baseball Players - Drop, Hold, or Sell Low for Week 2? (2025)

Welcome, RotoBallers, to our weekly article about well-known fantasy baseball players. During each week of the fantasy season, we will identify which big-time players are in a slump and determine what we should do with them in fantasy (drop, hold, or sell low). These difficult decisions could be the difference in winning your matchups every […]


Quinn Mathews - Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Draft Sleepers, MLB Rookie Rankings

Top-5 MLB Pitching Prospects To Stash For Fantasy Baseball Redraft Leagues - Week 2 (2025)

Welcome back to our top starting pitcher fantasy baseball prospects to stash for Week 2 of the 2025 MLB season. Even though the regular season has just started, there is no better time to look ahead and identify high-upside stashes. Last season, we saw several prospect pitchers become league-winners as soon as they reached the […]


Ben Rice - Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Baseball Frauds? Buy/Sell On Standout Performers Including Chris Bassitt, Ben Rice, Kris Bubic, Carson Kelly, more

Welcome, RotoBallers, to our weekly fantasy baseball frauds and buys/sells article. Each Monday, we go through several players coming off a solid week in fantasy. Then, we'll determine if we should be buying or selling these players heading into the following week. The first edition of this article saw several players get off to fast starts, including Wilyer Abreu, Spencer […]


Tommy Edman - MLB DFS, Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Waiver Wire

8 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Tommy Edman, Triston Casas, Luke Jackson, Justin Steele, more

Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 2 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll be taking a look at names like Tommy Edman, Triston Casas, Luke Jackson, Justin Steele, and more. Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a […]


Jhoan Duran fantasy baseball rankings closers saves draft sleepers

Fantasy Baseball Closer Depth Charts - MLB Bullpens and Saves

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. Relief pitchers are becoming increasingly important for […]


Luis Garcia - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who To Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 2)

Welcome back to a new season of The Cut List as we head into Week 2 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those who are not familiar, this is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling […]


Kris Bubic - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

FAAB Waiver Wire Bidding - Fantasy Baseball Pickups to Target for Week 2 (April 7 - April 13)

The baseball season is officially underway, and there is no better time to look to the waiver wire to improve your team. Our series about FAAB fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups continues as we head into Week 2 of the 2025 MLB season -- April 7th through April 13th. This waiver wire article will recommend free […]


Tylor Megill fantasy baseball rankings waiver wire pickups draft sleepers

Week 2 Waiver Wire Rankings - Fantasy Baseball Pickups Include Zac Veen, Jordan Walker, Sean Murphy, Jonathan Aranda, Michael Conforto, more

Fantasy baseball is off to a fast start, and we are already on to Week 2 of the MLB season -- April 7th - April 13th. At RotoBaller HQ, we are back with more waiver wire advice to help your fantasy teams. Today, we review the updated waiver wire rankings for Week 2 of the […]