Questionable Target Hogs in 2022 Fantasy Football

April 12, 2022

Antonio looks at wide receivers who should fall from WR1/WR2 levels of play in fantasy football based on a drop of their target share as they will feature in overloaded offenses. Consider fading these players in 2022 drafts, especially in PPR leagues.

We're talking about fantasy football here, and in fantasy, football volume is the key to rostering and fielding a winning team. While everything boils down to that concept, seeking volume calls for looking deeper than just the name and reputation of players. Put a wide receiver or tight end in a stacked offense (one featuring multiple top-tier pass-catchers and one or two great rushers) and his volume--and thus his fantasy outcome--will drop without question. The opportunities will go down and with them the chances of scoring fantasy points.

With that in mind, it makes sense to chase WRs/TEs with a clear and very well-defined No. 1 role without other receivers threatening their target share. Even if the players in those offenses are not top-tier options, they will get all of the opportunities they can handle, which will ultimately benefit them. Those players might not be that good, but they will compensate for it just on pure volume. And the exact opposite is also true: great pass-catchers can rack up points even on low volume, separating themselves from the pack.

Today, I will explore some offenses that enter the 2022 season with loaded receiving corps featuring multiple high-caliber receivers to throw passes to, making their top options doubtful as fantasy assets to chase for the upcoming year.

Questionable Target Hogs for 2022

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

If you look at the chart above, you'll find something strange about it. Yes, it is that thing you're thinking about; don't overcomplicate things. In which world Adam Thielen (95) gets fewer than 100 targets over a full season while Justin Jefferson (167) gets almost two times that amount of targets? Well, in a world in which Thielen missed four games entirely and therefore had 250 fewer snap-reps than Jefferson to run routes over the 2021 season.

Don't get me wrong, though. Justin Jefferson is a legit WR1 with back-to-back top-six seasons among players at the position and top-24 OVR. Jefferson reached 274+ PPR points as a rookie and was even better last year with a monster 330 PPR points, appearing in all 17 games in 2021. While JJ will keep getting a ridiculous amount of targets, I wouldn't bank on another 165+ target season. He got 125 in his rookie year when Stefon Diggs left Minny for Buffalo, and I think that's the highest projectable figure for him in 2022.

In the four years the Vikings have had Kirk Cousins as the starting QB, at least one player each year got 90+ targets, with two doing so in all but one of those four years (Diggs in 2019 with Thielen missing six games). So while there is a real chance both Thielen and Jefferson get their big tallies, I'd bet on a bump up in Thielen's opportunities while Jefferson's drop a bit--not to mention the fact that Minny still has a top-tier RB in Dalvin Cook racking up touches and a promising returning TE in Irv Smith Jr.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Obviously, Ja'Marr Chase is the one getting all of the hype for himself this offseason after what he did last year as a rookie, helping Cincy reach the SB but ultimately falling short of winning it. But about your boy Waddle!? With Chase already off the board, the Fins had to go Alabama's way and ended up landing Waddle. Talk about stumbling upon greatness, folks. Waddle went on to score 245 PPR points and although Chase's 304 were the most by a rookie-WR in the past 21 years, the pair combined for the highest combined PPR-point tally in that span between two rookies from the same class (above OBJ+Mike Evans in 2014).

Waddle's explosion had a lot to do with his massive 140-target diet. That's no hyperbole. Only Kelvin Benjamin (145) and Anquan Boldin (165) got more targets in their rookie seasons than Waddle did. And while it is true that Waddle deserved all of that workload--and then some--given his ridiculous production (1,015 yards and six TDs on 104 receptions for a 74%+ catch rate), we have yet to see him work at those levels of efficiency going forward and enduring an inevitable drop in targets.

Inevitable, you say!? How dare you!? Well, if you noticed above, I included two charts under Waddle's name instead of just one. That is because of one very simple reason: Miami's trade for WR1 Tyreek Hill, who is absolu-definitely going to out-target Waddle in 2022--barring unpredictable stuff like an injury. Hill cost Miami an eye and even if he had gotten to Florida for peanuts, he'd still command the bulkiest workload because he's just that good. Not saying Waddle's lost all of his appeal (he was a borderline WR1 last year), but tame your expectations because the efficiency was probably unsustainable and the targets will go down a tick (Miami also added WRs Cedrick Wilson and Preston Williams, and RBs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert on top of everything).

Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots

No need to add the Dolphins' target-share chart next to the Patriots one because I already included it in Jaylen Waddle's blurb. Wait, what? I said that because the Pats recently traded for now-former Dolphins exiled receiver DeVante Parker to play (we suppose) the WR1 role in New England's offense starting next season. All the Pats have done this offseason when it comes to skill-position players have been moving every wideout down one depth-chart spot with the addition of Parker. Sadly, that's all it took to impact Meyers' upside entering 2022.

Meyers is coming off his best and first above-81 target season. He got 126 looks (good-not-incredible) from rookie Mac Jones and caught 83 of those passes nearly for a neat 66% catch rate over his 17 games played. He finished as a top-30 WR for the first time in his career too, after upsetting rookie and sophomore seasons in which he could only finish WR98 and WR53. Oh, and he also scored the first (two!) touchdowns of his career. Not bad for a late kinda-breakout, I guess.

Of course, if New England wants to aspire to more than a third/fourth-place finish in its division and a postseason berth--let alone a deep postseason run--things had to change a bit in terms of offensive production. The addition of Parker doesn't move the needle entirely but is a good first step, all things considered. Parker is a veteran, will probably take the reins of the leading-WR role, and the only thing working against him of late were a couple of injuries in 2020 and 2021, limiting him to 14 and 10 games, respectively. Other than that, last season would have been Parker's third year in a row with 100+ targets (assuming he'd had kept the 7+ targets per game pace while appearing in 16 games in 2021). Not liking Meyer's chances at a 115-target campaign next year.

Russell Gage, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Another player to doubt because of him changing team this offseason. Gage definitely filled his bag for good when he signed that three-year deal with Tampa a few weeks ago, and that is something I fully respect. Like, it's not that you can get some cool $30 million every day, so you gotta strike when the iron is hot. And Gage was smart in joining the Bucs because a certain Tom Brady is back unretired and manning TB's pocket, which is great for his chances at winning the SB! Everything is fantastic! The world is wonderful! The skies are bright and blue! Yay!

Or not. Of course, 95% of the NFL wideout men would pay for playing under Tom Brady's command. It's pretty much akin to starting the year with 80% odds of winning the chip, as simple as that. But Gage is joining an offense that already boasts a bonafide WR1 in Mike Evans, has another very legit threat in (currently injured) WR2 Chris Godwin, and could also see an all-timer TE (Rob Gronkowski) returning for another run at glory--as if he needed it.

Gage is a lock to start the year as the Bucs' WR2. That's the true role he played in Atlanta (WR1 though with TE Kyle Pitts pretty much above him in the overall pecking order), so it's not that he will suffer the biggest of bump-downs in targets. Brady has sustained two wide receivers getting 100+ targets in his two years in Tampa Bay (that's false, because Godwin got 84 in 2020 but did so in just 12 games, so he would have broken the 100-mark if fully available). Gage didn't even reach 100 targets in a barren-of-talent Falcons offense, so I'm dubious he can do so in Tampa Bay even given the room/opportunity/role, and much less produce at an impressive level (WR38 last year in 14 games played).

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