X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Quarterback Fallers for Fantasy Football - ADP Analysis for 2023 Drafts

Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of quarterbacks to assess their situations for fantasy football. Which QBs are falling in ADP and is now the time to pounce?

Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days that are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we check to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks - ADP Fallers

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Although there is nothing to worry about an ADP falling eight picks just a couple of weeks after the NFL draft, the trend speaks a bit about Jacksonville's offseason and the moves they made (or actually, didn't make) through the past few weeks. Lawrence is a loser by default here, although there is also the chance most fantasy GMs are focusing too much on the Jaguars draft in terms of the franchise choosing to go with a RB in Tank Bigsby instead of favoring bolstering the pass-catching corps.

Perhaps those GMs have forgotten about a certain receiver in the returning Calvin Ridley? This could be the case, and if that's in fact the thing causing this drop, then I hope that gets fixed eventually and Lawrence's ADP rises to the blue skies and beyond. Ridley is a top-tier wideout and his last full season in Atlanta (2020) proved so.

Back in 2020, Ridley played 15 games and finished the season as the WR5 in PPR formats. He caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards and 9 TDs. In 2021, he only played five games but still averaged a solid 14.2 FPPG with an average line of 6 receptions for 55+ yards per game that season. He spent 2022 suspended but he'll return hypercharged next season to help Trevor Lawrence.

Speaking of Lawrence... The young man is coming off a top-7 QB season. He was already QB23 in his rookie year and the improvement last season was sizable going from an average of 11.7 FPPG in 2021 to a fantastic 17.4 FPPG in 2022. His passing was much more efficient as a sophomore and his rushing numbers improved all across the board.

Hell, Lawrence even brought Evan Engram back to life after the Jags acquired what seemed to be a near-finished tight end and turned him into a bonafide TE1 last year. Buy while you can because the ADP drop is unreasonable and it will eventually/inevitably bounce back and rise again.

 

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes's ADP falling... I've seen it all! Now, if we're serious, it actually makes sense at the end of the day. It is not that his freakishly high ADP can even rise anymore, so it can only go down if you think about it.

Mahomes is coming off a supremely great season in which he finished QB1 with 417.4 FP through 17 games played. The guy simply mastered this thing we called football through the fall and the winter, full stop. And it's been like that since 2018 when he took charge of the Chiefs' pocket, honestly.

That said, it is also true that Kansas City might be getting a little bit too comfortable when it comes to giving Mahomes some pieces that actually help him when on the field. The Chiefs let Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster (two of their top-4 WRs in total PPR points last year) go this offseason. They only added Rashee Rice with a draft pick while retaining all of their other main pieces.

The Chiefs are basically betting on Mahomes being Mahomes all by himself, in Travis Kelce still being a no. 1 TE (he's been that guy for seven of the last eight seasons in PPR leagues...), and in a weird amalgam of wide receivers that hopefully will find open windows on a play-by-play basis, one player at a time.

You might or might not like a strategy founded on drafting a QB with a second-round pick, but if you're going to walk that path you better put your money (pick) where Mahomes is. Folks keep doubting him and the lad keeps shutting their mouths yearly. Too bad for the haters, that doesn't look like it will be changing in the next two... or eight seasons.

 

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

It took Allen two years (one, maybe?) but after we hit the 2020s, he's been an absolute beast at things we call fantasy football. Allen has finished the last three seasons as the QB1, QB1, and QB2. In the offseasons leading up to those campaigns, his ADP sat at 85th, 25th, and 18th overall. It's now settling around 30th and, truth be told, that's a bargain considering his last two figures on that front and his QB1+QB2 finishes.

All the Bills have lost this offseason are WR3 Isaiah McKenzie and RB1 Devin Singletary. For one, Isaiah McKenzie's production has been replaced by the addition of the pair of Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty along with rookie TE Dalton Kincaid. For two, Singletary was a borderline RB2 in the NFL last season (PPR format) and Josh Allen nearly outrushed him while scoring two more touchdowns through the year.

In a similar situation to that of Mahomes, it is not that Allen's ADP can do anything else other than drop because it's already sky-high. That said, the more it keeps falling, the better Allen will look for those aiming at building their fantasy roster around a legitimate league-winning quarterback with a super early fantasy draft pick this summer.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF