X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pull%: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Mookie Betts - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

We have previously determined that fantasy managers generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air.

One way to illustrate this is to look at league-wide HR/FB by batted ball direction. Flies to the opposite field seldom found the cheap seats in 2023, posting a HR/FB of just 3.9%. Flies to dead center fared slightly better (8.4% HR/FB), but pulled fly balls were clearly the most productive (32.6% HR/FB). The exact numbers vary from year to year, but every season illustrates this trend.

Raw Pull% is found on the Batted Ball graph on a player's FanGraphs page fifth from the top, but that number is virtually useless. As we will see below, Pull% has to be considered by batted ball type (grounder, fly, or liner) to be a useful fantasy tool, forcing managers to turn to the second of three tables under the Splits tab at the top. Let's take a closer look at how Pull% can help you win your fantasy leagues in 2024!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

How to Interpret Pull%

In 2023, there were a total of 5,868 homers hit. Of those, 3,750 went to the batter's pull side (about 64%), 1,421 went to center field (24%), and the remaining 697 were opposite-field shots (12%). This distribution is fairly consistent year-to-year, so it's safe to count on something similar going forward.

This makes intuitive sense. Pulled baseballs tend to be hit with the highest exit velocity, making it easier for them to leave the stadium. The power alleys next to the foul poles on either side of the ballpark also present the shortest distance to a HR. If a player's HR/FB dramatically improves, a change in approach involving more pulled baseballs could help explain why.

Mookie Betts provides a good illustration of this kind of change. Betts set personal full-season bests with 39 HR and a 16.7% HR/FB last year. An increased Pull% on fly balls helps explain this change as he pulled 32.1% of them against a career rate of 27.5.

To be clear, the number of fly balls pulled by a batter is prone to random fluctuations and may not indicate anything with predictive value. Boston's Xander Bogaerts appeared in this space in the past, and his Pull% on fly balls is pretty much a random number generator. Still, a higher Pull% on fly balls can help explain why a power outbreak happened and could prove sustainable if the batter continues to pull flies.

 

Did the 2023 Shift Ban Work?

Pulled flies are good, but many fantasy managers cringe when they hear the word "pull" because they envision infield shifts eating their batting average alive. Rob Manfred banned shifts before the 2023 campaign, and now it's time to quantify what that did.

At first glance, Manfred won. MLB hitters hit .300 against the shift last season, up from .288 in 2022. MLB hitters hit .299 without a shift in 2023, down from .303 in 2022. It didn't matter if teams shifted or not as the resulting batting average was virtually the same. The shift is dead!

Except it isn't. FanGraphs always categorized shifts as "traditional" or "non-traditional." Traditional shifts limited MLB hitters to a .282 average over 66,942 PAs in 2022. The new rules reduced their effectiveness, and hitters hit .294 in 65,786 PAs against traditional shifts in 2023. There were slightly fewer of them, but they still shaved five points of batting average compared to straight-up defenses.

Non-traditional shifts were never particularly effective as batters hit .348 against them across 7,725 PAs in 2022. The new rules rendered them even less effective, with 2023 batters hitting .375 in 6,631 PAs against non-traditional shifts. The overall shift numbers are skewed by these wildly ineffective non-traditional shifts, masking the fact that traditional shifts still work.

The days of every player seeing a shift are likely over, but extreme-pull guys will still lose hits to infield shifts going forward. Furthermore, production against the shift is likely to decline from 2023 levels as teams realize some players shouldn't be shifted while non-traditional shifts should be abandoned. Shifts should still be a consideration in batting average forecasts.

 

The Problem with Raw Pull%

Of all pulled baseballs in 2023, 57.4% were grounders. Pulled grounders might have a higher average exit velocity than other ground balls, but they will never turn into home runs. In contrast, only 22.7% of pulled baseballs were classified as fly balls last season. Ideally, fantasy managers want their hitters to pull fly balls while limiting how often they roll grounders to their pull side.

This is much easier said than done, as all players pull many more grounders than flies. Let's consider Freddie Freeman as an example. His raw 2023 Pull% of 36.5 was much lower than the league-average 41.1, but he pulled 51.6% of his grounders compared to 21.8% of his flies. At first glance, you might think that Freeman was making himself vulnerable to shifting without significantly boosting his power potential.

That assumption would be wrong. The shift was designed for batters who pull roughly 70% of their ground balls, and Freeman scorched it for a .388 batting average in 374 PAs last year. He "only" hit .327 in 113 PAs without a shift, making Freeman a guy who should see fewer shifts in the future.

Freeman's Pull% on fly balls was slightly lower than the league's mark of 22.7%, but he has enough raw power to overcome that. Pulling more grounders than flies is far from a death sentence.

 

Conclusion

To sum up, pulled fly balls tend to perform better than other fly balls. This means that pulling more flies can produce an increased HR/FB, but you should never use raw Pull% to determine this. Most pulled balls are hit on the ground, where all of the exit velocity in the world cannot turn them into home runs.

Therefore, you should filter a player's Pull% by batted ball type to produce the most reliable results. If you're interested in learning more about the role of advanced analytics in today's fantasy environment, stay tuned!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

J.T. Realmuto1 hour ago

Exits With Foot Contusion On Saturday
Cody Poteet1 hour ago

Orioles Acquire Cody Poteet From Cubs
Oneil Cruz2 hours ago

Draws Four Walks, Steals Two Bases In Loss
Josh Berry2 hours ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Adolis García2 hours ago

Adolis Garcia Homers, Tallies Three RBI In Three-Hit Day
Joey Logano2 hours ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece2 hours ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Roki Sasaki2 hours ago

Struggles With Command Again On Saturday
Chase Elliott2 hours ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Ryan Pressly3 hours ago

Secures Save Despite Shaky Ninth
Christopher Bell3 hours ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 hours ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Leon Draisaitl3 hours ago

Leads The Way In Return
Artemi Panarin3 hours ago

Scores Twice On Saturday
Jake Oettinger3 hours ago

Earns Fifth Straight Victory
Mikko Rantanen3 hours ago

Tallies Three Points On Saturday
SJ4 hours ago

Jimmy Schuldt Injured On Saturday
Colton Sissons4 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Kyle Tucker4 hours ago

Launches First Long Ball As A Cub
Denny Hamlin4 hours ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Austin Cindric4 hours ago

Martinsville Is Austin Cindric's Best Short Track
Eugenio Suárez4 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Extends Home Run Streak To Three Games
Kyle Busch4 hours ago

Short-Track Performance At Richard Childress Racing Is Pretty Dire
Brad Keselowski4 hours ago

If Brad Keselowski Has Any Speed Whatsoever, He's A Killer DFS Option
Noah Gragson4 hours ago

Teammates Will Likely Outrun Him On Sunday
Michael McDowell4 hours ago

Martinsville One Of Michael McDowell's Worst Tracks
Ricky Stenhouse Jr4 hours ago

. Consistently Slow At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 hours ago

Has Worst Qualifying Run At A Track That Already Wasn't His Best
John Hunter Nemechek4 hours ago

Has Fastest Legacy Car, But That's Not Saying A Lot
Riley Herbst4 hours ago

Unlikely To Gain Enough Positions To Justify DFS Play
Cody Ware4 hours ago

Unlikely To Contend At Martinsville
Burt Myers4 hours ago

Southern Modified Legend Burt Myers Makes Cup Series Debut At Martinsville
Jesús Luzardo4 hours ago

Jesus Luzardo Strikes Out 11 In Philadelphia Debut
Brandon Marsh4 hours ago

Hits Three-Run Shot On Saturday
Andrés Giménez5 hours ago

Andres Gimenez Launches Second Long Ball Of The Season
Jazz Chisholm Jr.5 hours ago

Goes Deep On Saturday
NASCAR8 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Has Speed At Martinsville This Weekend
Kyle Larson8 hours ago

Should Kyle Larson Be Underestimated As A Favorite At Martinsville?
William Byron8 hours ago

Is Likely To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Kenley Jansen12 hours ago

Picks Up First Save With The Angels
Chris Martin12 hours ago

Secures First Save Of The Season
Kristian Campbell12 hours ago

Red Sox Are In Deep Talks About Contract Extension
Seth Halvorsen13 hours ago

Notches First Save Of The Year
Sean Murphy13 hours ago

Set For Rehab Assignment With High-A Rome
José Soriano13 hours ago

Jose Soriano Tosses Seven Shutout Innings
Anthony Volpe13 hours ago

Hits Three-Run Blast
Josh Smith13 hours ago

Exits Saturday's Game Early With Quad Contusion
Brice Turang13 hours ago

Belts Two-Run Homer
Dereck Lively II16 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus Chicago
Daniel Gafford16 hours ago

Officially Out On Saturday
P.J. Washington16 hours ago

Available Versus Chicago
Anthony Davis16 hours ago

Available On Saturday Night
Chicago Bears16 hours ago

Doug Kramer Jr. Re-Signs With Chicago
Washington Commanders16 hours ago

Foster Sarell Inks One-Year Contract With Washington
Miami Dolphins17 hours ago

Willie Gay Jr. Heading To Miami
Devin Carter17 hours ago

Won't Return On Saturday
Seattle Seahawks17 hours ago

D'Anthony Bell Signs With Seattle
Marcus Smart17 hours ago

Returning On Saturday Night
Noah Clowney17 hours ago

Available On Saturday
Chet Holmgren17 hours ago

Ruled Out On Saturday
Nikita Zadorov18 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Bruins Lineup Saturday
Chandler Stephenson18 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Saturday
Connor Zary18 hours ago

Out Week-To-Week
Stuart Skinner18 hours ago

Remains Out On Saturday, Could Miss A Week
Mattias Ekholm18 hours ago

Out Against Flames
Leon Draisaitl18 hours ago

Could Be Back In Action Saturday
Houston Texans21 hours ago

Texans Sign E.J. Speed To One-Year Deal
Buffalo Bills22 hours ago

Bills, Christian Benford Reach Agreement On Four-Year Extension
D'Angelo Russell23 hours ago

Won't Play Versus Washington
Nicolas Claxton23 hours ago

Resting On Saturday
Ja Morant24 hours ago

Future In Memphis In Doubt?
Detroit Lions2 days ago

Lions Re-Sign Kayode Awosika
Irvin Charles2 days ago

Jets Re-Sign Irvin Charles
Green Bay Packers2 days ago

Kristian Welch Signs With Green Bay
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Jeremiah Moon Heading To Pittsburgh
Teagan Quitoriano2 days ago

Falcons Sign Teagan Quitoriano
2 days ago

Tetairoa McMillan Scheduled To Visit With Panthers
Baltimore Ravens2 days ago

Ravens Reach Three-Year Contract Extension With John Harbaugh
Duncan Robinson2 days ago

To Miss Third Straight Game Due To Back Issue
Andrew Wiggins2 days ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Cole Anthony2 days ago

Doubtful To Play On Saturday
Walker Kessler2 days ago

Misses Friday's Game
Payton Pritchard2 days ago

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum2 days ago

Ready To Return To Action Saturday
Tyrese Maxey2 days ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Giannis Antetokounmpo2 days ago

Available Against Knicks
Stephen Curry2 days ago

Expected To Play Friday
Pavel Buchnevich2 days ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Austin Reaves2 days ago

Listed As Questionable For Saturday
Kaiden Guhle2 days ago

Back In Action Friday
Cole Sillinger2 days ago

Returns To Blue Jackets Lineup
Alex Pietrangelo2 days ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Andrei Svechnikov2 days ago

Returns To Action Against Canadiens
Brad Marchand2 days ago

Ready For Panthers Debut On Friday
Las Vegas Raiders2 days ago

Devin White Signs With Las Vegas
Daniel Jones2 days ago

Gets Vote Of Confidence From Chris Ballard
Stefon Diggs2 days ago

Looking Forward To Playing With Drake Maye
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Jacksonville Jaguars2 days ago

Jaguars Cut Dieter Eiselen
Hunter Renfrow2 days ago

Visits Panthers
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
New England Patriots2 days ago

Patriots Expected To Release Ja'Whaun Bentley
Joe Pyfer2 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum2 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales2 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Kansas City Chiefs2 days ago

Chiefs Re-Sign Nazeeh Johnson
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
David Martinez2 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Set To Open Up UFC Mexico City Main Card
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Hunter Renfrow2 days ago

Meeting With Raiders
Jaden Schwartz2 days ago

Scores Twice On Thursday
Casey DeSmith2 days ago

Stops 46 Shots Against Calgary
Matvei Michkov2 days ago

Scores Twice, Adds Assist On Thursday
Jhonattan Vegas4 days ago

Not A Good Play At Houston Open
Gary Woodland4 days ago

A Dark-Horse Candidate At Houston Open
Nick Taylor4 days ago

Keep An Eye On Nick Taylor At Houston Open
Mackenzie Hughes4 days ago

Avoid Mackenzie Hughes At Houston Open
Nicolai Hojgaard4 days ago

Looking To Rebound At Houston Open
Scottie Scheffler4 days ago

Returns To Houston Looking For Year's First Victory
Rory McIlroy4 days ago

Making Additional Start At Houston Open To Prepare For Augusta
Doug Ghim4 days ago

Looking For Iron Form In Houston
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Keep An Eye On Aaron Rai At Houston Open
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

Looks To Build On Recent History At Memorial Park
Harry Hall4 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Harris English4 days ago

Looking To Build Off Solid Finish At The PLAYERS
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

A Risky Option At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Alex Smalley5 days ago

A Strong Play At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Michael Kim5 days ago

Bounces Back At Valspar Championship
PGA5 days ago

Sungjae Im Looking For Bounce-Back Performance At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Austin Eckroat5 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Texas Children's Houston Open
PGA5 days ago

Nico Echavarria A Volatile Option At Texas Children's Houston Open
Joe Highsmith5 days ago

Continues Post-Win Success And Is Looking For More In Houston
Adam Hadwin5 days ago

Far From Good Form As He Heads To Texas
Ben Griffin5 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Houston Open
Sean Brady6 days ago

Dominates At UFC London
MMA6 days ago

Leon Edward Dominated At UFC London
Carlos Ulberg6 days ago

Extends His Win Streak
Jan Blachowicz6 days ago

Outpointed At UFC London
Gunnar Nelson6 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC London
Kevin Holland6 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Molly McCann6 days ago

Retires After UFC London Submission Loss
Alexia Thainara6 days ago

Wins Her UFC Debut
Chris Duncan6 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC London
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF