PPR Draft Targets - Undervalued Wide Receivers

Antonio Losada evaluates wide receivers that should become targets in PPR fantasy football drafts due to their low ADP compared to the potential return on investment (ROI) and reception volume.

For fantasy football GMs, draft season is gearing up. Preparing for what is waiting for us in our virtual war rooms is a key part of the process and the first thing to know is the format of the league we're going to be part of. The difference between Standard and PPR (Point-Per-Reception) scoring systems is really simple, with the latter awarding one extra point to players that catch a pass. Standard scoring was a staple in the early days of fantasy football, but PPR has become the most played system lately.

It doesn't take a genius to know who this benefits the most: over-targeted receivers, pass-catching running backs, and reliable tight ends. While some players are good enough to put up good numbers on their pure talent, others might fall shorter on the ability leaderboard. Some of those, though, trump the most talented ones in fantasy leagues due to a heavier usage and racking up receptions that go for extra fantasy points.

Having the PPR scoring system in mind, it's time to discover which players are surefire bets to excel in leagues following that format who are currently being undervalued in drafts by fantasy GMs. Today, I'm highlighting four wide receivers who are primed to become studs in these leagues that have lower ADPs and prices than those they should be attached to.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns

ADP of WR42, Projected to finish WR24

Ah, it's always comfy to find me writing--as I do every year--about tremendously underrated WRs... and Jarvis Landry, which happens every single summer. If you think that's exaggerating: Landry is a seven-year pro already and he's never gotten drafted above the 40th overall pick; yet on the other hand, he's only once finished outside the top-30 players at the position.

Landry will be playing his fourth season in Cleveland come 2021. He has missed one game in his seven-year career, is a lock to make it to the field on a weekly basis, and other than in his rookie year, he's put up at least 12.5 PPR points per game. 2020 saw him fall below 217 PPR points for the first time since 2014. Honestly, I don't think there is a lot to say here that will add to how incredibly underrated this man is every year.

Even if Odell Beckham Jr. finds a way to stay healthy for the full 17-game season, Landry will still be the WR1.5 of the Browns at the very least. PFF has both of these two projected to similar 108-target marks (20% target share) with Landry edging OBJ in receptions and the latter getting the better of the former in yards. Even then, Landry's top-24 (WR2) projection is the least he will accomplish in 2021 and he's way cheaper than Beckham (116th overall compared to OBJ's 84th) these days, making Landry a much more valuable play.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

ADP of WR38, Projected to finish WR26

Moving from QB Teddy Bridgewater (good-not-great) to Sam Darnold (viable-not-good) is an honest and reasonable reason for concern. That being said, though, Teddy B has never been more than a QB2 player... pretty much like three-year-pro Sammy D. Some folks will go to the numbers and tell you that Anderson had two bad seasons playing under Darnold, but the truth is that we couldn't expect a lot from the pair back then. Darnold was a rookie/sophomore, played just 26 games in those two years, and he was just going through the growing pains.

While that doesn't mean he improved in 2020 (he didn't), Darnold is changing scenery and starting anew in Carolina. Anderson, who comes off his best season ever (224 PPR points with a 14 FPPG average), should retain most of that production. The Panthers let Curtis Samuel go and TE Dan Arnold's addition shouldn't hurt Anderson's opportunities that much. Sure, Christian McCaffrey is back healthy and that will see him rack up touches, but it can also help Anderson and Darnold connect by keeping the defenses honest on the ground game.

Anderson projects to a borderline WR2 finish with upside for more. In the past five seasons, players projected to 210-220 PPR points (PFF projects Anderson to 213+) have finished outside the WR2 realm only once, and as WR21 on average. That's Robby Anderson for you in 2021, even though fantasy GMs are valuing him a full round (12-team leagues) below his expected finish.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

ADP of WR37, Projected to finish WR27

Cooks is the ultimate trailblazer. He played three years for the Saints, one for the Pats, two for the Rams, and last season, he donned Texans threads for the first time in his career. He barely misses time (three games in the past six seasons) so that's not a concern for his fantasy GMs and his upside, and he's topped 220 PPR points in all of the last six years except 2019 (crowded Rams outfield; two games missed).

For how great Cooks has been, his ADP is ridiculous. Sure, he won't have Deshaun Watson tossing him the rock in 2021, but even then he should still thrive in an offense that lacks weapons everywhere. PFF has the Texans' skill-position starters (let's say the top-three WR, top-two RB, and top-TE in projected opportunities) projected to an average of 144 PPR points in 2021. Only Cooks tops 200 PPR points in those projections. Talk about a lack of talent...

Cooks has put up numbers all throughout his career and that shouldn't change next season, even with QB Tyrod Taylor manning the offense. All of Brees, Brady, and Goff were better playmakers at the quarterback position, sure, but those three franchises also had Cooks playing a way smaller role in their offenses than the one he will take on next season. That should balance things out and make Cooks one of the most undervalued and wrongly-forgotten wideouts in fantasy football.

Honorable Mentions

Sterling Shepard (WR78 -> WR38): Last year was Shepard's best in terms of efficiency with a 9.94 YPR mark to go with a career-high 73.3% Catch Rate while putting up a 90/66/656/3 receiving yard line to go with 49 yards and a single touchdown on the ground to put the cherry on top of a WR43 season (162.5 PPR points). Had he played the full 16-game schedule at that pace (13.5 FPPG), he would have seen his final rank go all the way up to WR23 and a WR2 finish, more than good for those in either shallow or deeper formats.

Shepard projects to 190+ PPR points (via PFF) in 2021, which is the most by far by a WR with his ADP. In fact, for players projected to finish in the 180-200 FP clip over the season, the average ADP comes out at a rather high 108 compared to Shepard's 202+.

Marvin Jones (WR57 -> WR37): Barring his nine-game 2018 season, the other four campaigns Jones played since debuting (min. 13 games in each of them) saw him reach at least 172 FP, and his FPPG average is all the way up to around 14 PPR points per game in the last three full-seasons he's played. Jones is coming off his best season after scoring a career-high 227+ PPR points last year.

Jones is currently sitting at around 150 ADP. That would be his cheapest price since 2015, his final year in Cincy. Jones has finished as a WR3 in four of the last five seasons, one as a WR2 (2020) and another one as a WR1 (2017). Even if he has to face competition when it comes to targets in Jacksonville, that would most probably only mean that he would be related to a WR2 role slightly below D.J. Chark Jr.

Cole Beasley (WR49 -> WR34): Beasley has always been a little bit underrated; he's never boasted an ADP above 145, and he's been drafted outside of the top-200 overall positions in six of his nine pro seasons. He's always outperformed his draft position with the exception of his rookie season (expected) and 2017 (he only featured in 57% of the Cowboys snaps, though).

It's been two years in a row in which Beasley has finished inside the WR3 realm: WR34, and lastly WR27 to be precise. He's scored at least 150 PPR points in three consecutive seasons and his average FPPG is up to 13.1 fantasy points in the last couple of years playing under QB Josh Allen. Last season, Beasley led the league in Contested Catch Rate, was an 81st-percentile player in Yds/Route Run, and also finished with top-11 marks in both YAC/Target and Fewest Runs b/w Targets.

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