X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Power Risers and Fallers for Week 20: Buy or Sell?

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some fantasy baseball bats for week twenty that are hitting either extremely hot or cold in the power department.

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge is strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. We’re approaching the stretch run of the regular season and that means making some bold moves on the waiver wire and some tough calls when it comes to addressing cold streaks.

Identifying top power risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. We'll do the hard work for you, looking at the underlying metrics that influence a hitter's power: fly-ball, pull, hard-hit rates and exit velocity.  Consider buying these week 20 power risers and selling these week 20 power fallers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Eddie Rosario - (MIN, OF):

While he didn’t go deep in Thursday’s doubleheader, Rosario had launched five long balls alongside four doubles in his previous nine games with 12 runs scored and 10 RBIs. Heck, he even swiped a base in there. And it isn’t like he was bad during the doubleheader -- going 3-for-9 combined -- but many will remain skeptical of the 25-year-old. Questioning this surge is both understandable and wise, but do not that this a guy who hit 16 homers combined between the Majors and Minors in 2015 before slugging 17 combined HRs in ’16.

So, now the year is 2017 and Rosario has suddenly turned it on in August. How much are we really buying in here? Comparing his August to July, his fly-ball rate is up 12 percentage points to 47.6 percent with a healthy 18-percentage-point jump in his pull rate to 54.8 percent. Of course, we’re suckers for exit velocity most of all and Rosario doesn’t disappoint, with a 43 percent hard-hit rate and paltry 9.5 percent soft-contact rate thus far. Heck, when he went 3-for-4 with two homers on Aug. 8, all four of the balls he hit into play clocked in at 102.7 mph or faster (including the out he made). He isn’t the next Giancarlo Stanton, but he’s got more pop than you think and is right at the age where the prime form can be found.

C.J. Cron - (LAA, 1B):

Cron has always been a maddening fantasy asset to own because he always seems to get hurt after starting a hot streak. We’ll try to knock on as much wood as we can here because the 27-year-old is hitting .324 since the All-Star break (.340 in August) with seven round-trippers, 18 RBIs and a 1.016 OPS. His hard-hit rate is up over 10 percentage points with his usual fly-ball rate of roughly 48 percent and a lofty 55 percent pull rate.

Not only has Cron bashed 15 balls into play at over 100 mph this month, but six of those have been at over 110 mph -- and none of those six have had a negative launch angle. He’s got the swing to wreck baseballs and has a career .185 ISO despite all of his streaks and the injury-marred at-bats of his past. Don’t throw your wallet at the screen for him, but if you’re debating whether to make the add or not, you probably should.

Zack Cozart - (CIN, SS):

Cozart has a career-high 17 homers this season with an impressive .312 batting average that hasn’t fallen off in the second half. Yes, after hitting just .223 after the All-Star break last season, the 32-year-old is turning in a .300 clip thus far with eight long balls in just 70 ABs after clearing the fence nine times in 247 first-half ABs. Not bad at all.

We can’t expect him to hit fly balls at an insane 64 percent clip the rest of the way, but his pull rate of 59 percent isn’t far off from his norm (52 percent in July), with those first two metrics carrying an average 32.4 percent hard-hit rate for August. Plenty of people seem to be worrying about another dropoff like last season, but my stance is that you only have to worry about durability with Mr. Zack. Outside of that, the performance should be there.

 

Power Fallers

Jackie Bradley Jr. - (BOS, OF):

I relish nearly every opportunity I get to shine light on JBJ, as I think everyone hitches their wagons way too closely to those few hot streaks that elevated him toward the top 100 draft picks heading into 2017 drafts. It shouldn’t come as any surprise to his owners that he’s hitting just .198 with one measly round-tripper since the All-Star break (31 games). That homer came off of James Shields, so I don’t even know if we can count it. He’s also seen his strikeout rate spike to 31 percent after whiffing at a 19.9 percent clip in the first half. So the real question is, “how bad is it, Doc?”

Bad.

Because his hard-hit rate has dropped to 22 percent in August. Because his pull rate has done the exact same thing. Because he’s only hitting fly balls on one of every four batted balls this month. His soft-contact rate is up five percentage points in the second half. Only two of his last 20 batted balls have been struck at over 100 mph, and both of those had negative launch angles. It’s justifiably ugly right now. You can continue hoping for a rebound, but he’s cuttable in nearly all formats.

Brett Gardner - (NYY, OF):

Gardner hit a double on Thursday. It was pretty cool. It was also just his second extra-base hit in 61 August at-bats. I realize that Gardy is a slap-happy hitter who gets to bat leadoff and enjoy the short porch of Yankee Stadium, but there has to be a line drawn somewhere. The guy made do with a poor 23.6 percent hard-hit rate in July and we stomached it, but that mark has fallen to 14 percent in August. That’s the seventh-worst mark out of all qualified hitters! Names worse than him include Jarrod Dyson, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton -- in other words, the “No $&#^, Sherlock” group of zero-power hitters.

We love that Gardner can steal bases, but he won’t steal enough to offset being a total dud in the power department like those other guys. Banking on the raw potential of his hitting environment is fine if you have the room to bench him, but those of you whose trade deadlines haven’t passed can probably still fetch a pretty penny for him based on his overall numbers and the whole “Yankees allure” thing. He’s topped 100 mph on a batted ball just twice this month, and both were singles because there was no lift. This is the time of the season where patience can pay off if you have flexibility, but also bounce you out of contention if you’re stubborn about it.

Mike Zunino - (SEA, C):

But Zunino has two homers in his last six games! Okay, I don’t actually think there’s going to be any push back on this because most of you are rational and can do basic arithmetic. He’s just 7-for-39 (.179) in 13 August contests thus far with a gross 34.8 percent soft-contact rate (21.7 percent hard-hit rate) that has sucked all of the life out of a 39 percent fly-ball rate and 48 percent pull rate. There’s no doubting that his muscle can send a baseball far when he connects, but his timing is verifiably off right now.

What’s interesting is that he’s actually making significantly more raw contact in August than he did in July -- with a 67.8 percent contact rate compared to 56.3 percent in July -- and has brought his swinging-strike rate down from 23 percent to 15.8 percent. This goes with a zone-swing rate of 68 percent compared to 77 percent in July. So, he’s more selective and it’s paying off with some increased plate discipline, yet when he does swing, it’s just not doing nearly as much. He either needs to strike a different balance or get back to his old, more aggressive, ways. This won’t cut it.

 

More Risers and Fallers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Paolo Banchero

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Kawhi Leonard

Remains Out Against Magic
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Ruled Out for Two Weeks
Tyler Herro

Targeting Return on Monday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Limited in Practice on Wednesday
Jerami Grant

Available Wednesday Night
Jalen Brunson

Returns From Two-Game Absence
Jalen Smith

Available to Play Wednesday
Tre Jones

Downgraded to Out
Shaedon Sharpe

Misses Wednesday's Game
Dereck Lively II

Cleared for Action Wednesday
Daniel Gafford

Available Wednesday
Caleb Martin

Won't Play Against Knicks
Raisel Iglesias

Returning to the Braves on One-Year Deal
Lamar Jackson

Absent Due to Ankle Injury
Marvin Bagley III

Starts on Wednesday
Mike Conley

Joins Starting Unit Wednesday
Saddiq Bey

Cleared for Wednesday's Action
Zion Williamson

Returns to Action Wednesday
Aaron Gordon

Out Wednesday
Cooper Flagg

Won't Play Wednesday
Bam Adebayo

Cleared to Play Wednesday
Tre Mann

Ruled Out Wednesday
Sam Merrill

Ruled Out for Wednesday
Conor Garland

to Return on Thursday
Thomas Harley

to Miss Road Trip
Eetu Luostarinen

Out Week-to-Week After Barbecue Accident
Curtis Lazar

to Miss at Least Three Games
Vladimir Tarasenko

Misses Third Consecutive Game
Mikael Granlund

Remains Out Wednesday
Charlie McAvoy

Out Indefinitely After Facial Surgery
Joe Burrow

to Potentially Return in Week 12?
Aaron Rodgers

Out on Wednesday, Hopes to Practice Thursday
Jaylen Warren

Not Seen at Wednesday's Practice
Dak Prescott

Lands on Injury Report Ahead of Week 12 With Hip Injury
Rhamondre Stevenson

Targeting a Return in Week 12?
Isiah Pacheco

Returning to Practice on Wednesday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jaguars "Optimistic" About Brian Thomas Jr.'s Week 12 Status
Josh Jacobs

Will Not Practice on Wednesday
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Continue Fall Run at RSM Classic
Jayden Daniels

Commanders Considering Shutting Down Jayden Daniels?
Stephan Jaeger

Looking to Bounce Back at RSM Classic
Tom Hoge

Looking to Regain Form at RSM Classic
Joe Highsmith

Searching for Turnaround at RSM Classic
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Build on T11 Finish in Bermuda
Austin Eckroat

Searching for Momentum at RSM Classic
Joel Dahmen

Trying to Find Form at the RSM Classic
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ruled Out Again in Week 12
Drake London

Falcons Hoping That Drake London Will Return in Week 13
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful to Play Against Western Kentucky
Michael Penix Jr.

Needs Reconstructive Surgery on Torn ACL
Jaxson Dart

Expected to Return to Practice on Wednesday
Shedeur Sanders

Will Start Against Raiders
Dalton Kincaid

Ruled Out Against Texans
Connor Bedard

Continues Tear With Hat Trick
Macklin Celebrini

Pots Hat Trick in Tuesday's Win
Jake Guentzel

Records Eighth Career Hat Trick
Sammy Blais

Injured Versus Blues
Alexander Romanov

Injured in Tuesday's Win
Ryan Hartman

Considered Week-to-Week
Michael Thorbjornsen

Hopes to End 2025 Campaign With Another Solid Finish
Andrew Novak

Looks to End 2025 Season on High Note at RSM Classic
Harry Higgs

Teetering for PGA Tour Card in 2026
PGA

Nico Echavarria has the Potential to Contend at the RSM Classic
Sam Stevens

Finishing Out Year in Georgia
Seamus Power

Playing Better at the Right Time
Beau Hossler

Roller Coaster Comes to Saint Simons Island
Quade Cummins

The Time is Now for Quade Cummins in Georgia
Austin Cook

Needs a Win at the RSM Classic
Cameron Champ

on the PGA Tour Card Bubble
Grayson Rodriguez

Shipped to Angels
Taylor Ward

Orioles Acquire Taylor Ward From Angels
Shota Imanaga

Accepts Cubs Qualifying Offer
Brandon Woodruff

Returning to Milwaukee in 2026
Denny McCarthy

Looking For Another Solid Finish at RSM Classic
Si Woo Kim

Looking To Use Current Momentum to Flip Script at RSM Classic
Mackenzie Hughes

a Good Bounce-Back Candidate at RSM Classic
Harris English

Making 14th Start at This Week's RSM Classic
Konnor Griffin

Could Compete for Starting Shortstop Job in 2026
Gleyber Torres

Accepts Tigers Qualifying Offer
Odell Beckham Jr.

Officially Reinstated by NFL Commissioner
Matt Murray

to Miss Six Weeks With Lower-Body Injury
Ilya Lyubushkin

Out on Tuesday
Jamie Benn

Makes Season Debut Tuesday
Evgenii Dadonov

on Track to Return Tuesday
Dougie Hamilton

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Anthony Cirelli

Expected to Return Against Devils
Victor Hedman

Questionable for Tuesday
Auston Matthews

to Miss at Least Two More Games
C.J. Stroud

Expected to Return in Week 13 Against Colts
C.J. Stroud

to Miss Another Game
Joe Mixon

Uncertainty Remains Around Joe Mixon's Return Timeline
CFB

Sam Leavitt Set to Enter Transfer Portal?
Jose Altuve

Undergoes Foot Surgery
Alex Bregman

Red Sox Going for Either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso?
CFB

James Franklin to be Virginia Tech's Next Head Coach
CFB

Fernando Mendoza the Clear Heisman Trophy Favorite?
CFB

Beau Pribula Has Chance to Face Oklahoma on Saturday
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated
Islam Makhachev

Claims UFC Welterweight Belt
Zhang Weili

Gets Outclassed
Valentina Shevchenko

Wins Unanimous Decision At UFC 322
Sean Brady

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Michael Morales

Remains Unbeaten
Leon Edwards

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Leon Edwards

Carlos Prates Becomes The First Man To Knock Out Leon Edwards
Beneil Dariush

Suffers Brutal First-Round Knockout Loss
Beneil Dariush

Benoit Saint Denis Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 16 Seconds
Josh Naylor

Mariners Finalizing Five-Year Contract
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate Not Dealing With Long-Term Injuries
CFB

Virginia Tech Close To Naming James Franklin As Head Coach
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Aroldis Chapman

Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 322 Co-Main Event
Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

Set For Title Eliminator Bout
Carlos Prates

A Favorite At UFC 322
Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set To Open Up UFC 322 Main Card
Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP