X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Power Hitting Risers & Fallers for Week 24 - Buy or Sell?

Home run risers and fallers for Week 24 of fantasy baseball. Nate Green evaluates power increases or decreases, and players who could be buy or sell candidates.

A lot of this week's risers aren't actually too surprising. (We were going to talk about Jurickson Profar but the May 19 game resumption appears to have irreparably damaged the reliability of his two-week splits, which show him hitting .262 in some places and .298 in others. In short, though, you can ride his streak, but don't trust him too much.) None of them will be on waivers in almost any league, but knowing the chances that their power production continues can still help you make decisions on the edges of your roster elsewhere. Also, at this point it can't hurt to start thinking about where player values might be in the 2020 draft season.

Weekly reminders: EVAB (pronounced ee-vab or ev-ab) is simply exit velocity on "air balls" - meaning fly balls and line drives, as shown on Statcast. Isolated power -- ISO -- is slugging percentage minus batting average, and so xISO is xSLG minus xBA. The Statcast Search feature is used to obtain partial season Statcast numbers. The league-wide ratio of barrels to home runs is historically around 67-70%.

Now, for this week's risers and fallers. Stats are through September 2 unless otherwise noted.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Eugenio Suarez (3B, CIN)

Last 14 days: 8 HR, .409/.447/1.000, .779 xSLG, .335 xBA (.444 xISO), 94.9 mph at 17.4 degrees, 8 barrels, 47 PA.

Season Total: 44 HR, .269/.346/.568, .477 xSLG, .244 xBA (.233 xISO), 89.6 mph at 17.5 degrees (93.3 mph EVAB), 47 barrels, 586 PA.

Suarez returns to the column with an impossible-to-ignore eight home runs the last two weeks. Somehow they've come despite 16 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances. Even more amazing is the .779 xSLG despite all those strikeouts. Basically, Suarez these past two weeks has mastered the art of hitting the ball high and hard, with little regard for how often he makes contact.

As impressive as Suarez's recent contact has been, it hasn't brought his full-season power expectation up to what he's produced. In other words, for example, he's exceeded his xSLG by 91 points. But this is a hot streak to ride as he looks to become Cincinnati's second-ever 50-home run hitter (George Foster hit 52 in 1977). To manage a .779 xSLG despite wasting one-third of his plate appearances is pretty impressive.

It's a proper dilemma here: Suarez is undeniably hot right now, but his season contact is wanting. But with so little time left in the season, it becomes likelier that the hot streak can sustain through the rest of the season.

 

Yasmani Grandal (C, MIL)

Last 14 days: 6 HR, .244/.370/.667, .599 xSLG, .250 xBA (.349 xISO), 91.4 mph at 7.7 degrees, 8 barrels, 54 PA.

Season Total: 26 HR, .252/.379/.480, .461 xSLG, .238 xBA (.223 xISO), 90.4 mph at 13.0 degrees (94.9 mph EVAB), 39 barrels, 557 PA.

The main difference between Grandal's two-week run and his full season is a launch angle that has nearly been cut in half. Despite this, his barrel rate has increased. It hasn't made a difference in his batting average, actual or expected, but it has caused a nice power bump.

Grandal has produced a lot of value by walking rather than big hacks, but he's still been the catching position's third-best home run hitter after Gary Sanchez (34) and Mitch Garver (30). There's little reason to think he won't hit at least a couple more before the season is out.

 

Nicholas Castellanos (OF, CHC)

Note: Castellanos also played on May 19 but since he didn't play in the resumption, his stats avoided the fate of Profar's.

Last 14 days: 6 HR, .296/.316/.704, .633 xSLG, .245 xBA (.388 xISO), 89.1 mph at 9.8 degrees, 9 barrels, 57 PA.

Season Total: 25 HR, .293/.340/.528, .504 xSLG, .270 xBA (.234 xISO), 88.7 mph at 13.8 degrees (93.6 mph EVAB), 45 barrels, 597 PA.

Maybe there was something to Castellanos's complaints about Comerica Park. Or maybe Wrigley is just that much better. Either way, Castellanos has turned his season around with the Cubs.

Despite not producing much exit velocity on average, or hitting the ball at a particularly high angle, or hitting his flies and liners very hard, the x-stats indicate that Castellanos has pretty much deserved what he's got this season. In fact, the power output could have been even higher, as his ratio of home runs to barrels is low.

The same is true the past two weeks, which have featured an xISO of nearly .400. You're pretty safe going with the season numbers as your baseline expectation, with anything on top of that a bonus--but a rather unsurprising one if you were to get it.

 

Austin Meadows (OF, TB)

Last 14 days: 5 HR, .360/.418/.760, .582 xSLG, .327 xBA (.255 xISO), 88.8 mph at 14.9 degrees, 6 barrels, 55 PA.

Season Total: 28 HR, .288/.356/.556, .507 xSLG, .273 xBA (.234 xISO), 90.7 mph at 16.6 degrees (95.1 mph EVAB), 42 barrels, 517 PA.

Meadows ran into injury and then slump trouble in the middle of the season, but lately he's been back to his surprising production from earlier in the year, which bodes very well for 2020. While his contact quality the past two weeks doesn't match with his production, it's still bringing his expected stats for the full season up.

Meadows consistently hits the ball high, and that 95 EVAB is what you want to see for a power hitter. The minimum cutoff for a barrel is 95, so averaging that much exit velocity on flies and liners means you are getting plenty of barrels.

Other than hitting .175/.238/.247 from June 7 to July 3, it's been a great year for Meadows, and as with Grandal, the production the rest of the season should be in line with what he's shown in the season as a whole.

 

Peter Alonso (1B, NYM)

Last 14 days: 6 HR, .309/.377/.655, .664 xSLG, .309 xBA (.355 xISO), 88.9 mph at 22.5 degrees, 7 barrels, 61 PA.

Season Total: 47 HR, .270/.369/.599, .538 xSLG, .264 xBA (.274 xISO), 90.8 mph at 14.7 degrees (96.4 mph EVAB), 61 barrels, 613 PA.

Alonso has had the rare hot streak where the production has almost exactly matched the contact. Despite being under 90 mph in exit velocity, his xSLG is actually a notch higher than his SLG.

He has the highest xSLG for the season among this week's risers, which makes sense for the league's home run leader. Compared to all hitters, however, he only ranks 21st in expected slugging. His 61 barrels are tied for second, however, showing the benefits of consistently playing.

So as long as Alonso has his health, you should be able to bank on top-notch power production the last few weeks.

 

Power Fallers

Yoan Moncada (3B, CHW)

Note: Tuesday's home run hitter was Moncada. There continues to seem to always be at least one faller per week who homers on contribution day.

Last 14 days: 0 HR, .275/.345/.353, .367 xSLG, .281 xBA (.086 xISO), 89.1 mph at 8.8 degrees, 1 barrels, 58 PA.

Season Total: 22 HR, .297/.355/.523, .505 xSLG, .283 xBA (.222 xISO), 92.5 mph at 12.6 degrees (95.0 mph EVAB), 38 barrels, 483 PA.

Season as a whole, Moncada is a rising player and power hitter, but the last couple weeks have been rough. His power slump has been fully deserved by xBA, xSLG, and xISO, the last of which is under .100. His exit velocity and launch angle are below season norms as well.

But as Tuesday's home run shows, two bad weeks isn't enough to indicate a coming prolonged slump. That's why the season numbers matter too. And Moncada's remained good despite the two rough weeks.

And so a few more home runs for Moncada before the season expires seems a reasonable enough bet.

 

Kole Calhoun (OF, LAA)

Last 14 days: 0 HR, .154/.283/.231, .296 xSLG, .187 xBA (.109 xISO), 90.7 mph at 16.5 degrees, 1 barrels, 46 PA.

Season Total: 28 HR, .230/.324/.460, .444 xSLG, .236 xBA (.208 xISO), 89.2 mph at 14.6 degrees (94.8 mph EVAB), 38 barrels, 563 PA.

When walks (15.2%) and strikeouts (37.0%) make up over half your plate appearances, there isn't much room left for the third true outcome. That's the situation Calhoun's been in the past two weeks. The lack of power derives more from the lack of contact than the power itself, but both are still at play, with the sub-.300 xSLG and only one barrel.

Then again, the exit velocity and launch angle are up. It just hasn't translated into anything.

Calhoun is what he is: he will hit the ball hard when he hits it, but not necessarily in a way conducive to batting average. That's okay if you just need the home runs, and he should return to the column a few times this season, but it's hard to buy in too much the rest of the way given his shortcomings.

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B, TOR)

Last 14 days: 0 HR, .257/.350/.343, .341 xSLG, .278 xBA (.063 xISO), 86.4 mph at 8.6 degrees, 0 barrels, 40 PA.

Season Total: 15 HR, .276/.351/.458, .443 xSLG, .268 xBA (.175 xISO), 89.6 mph at 7.1 degrees (93.7 mph EVAB), 27 barrels, 450 PA.

Time to check in on Vladdy again, who has been perfectly good at the plate (115 wRC+) for the season as a whole. But just as in his debut in this column back in Week 7, elevating the ball continues to be a roadblock to something more for the 20-year-old.

Given his age and batted ball profile, there is still much to be excited about in Guerrero's future. But it's safe to say he's unlikely to dominate in the last couple weeks of the season.

That said, his barrel rate on the season would justify a few more home runs than he has. But the sub-.200 xISO and sub-95 mph EVAB also show a hitter who isn't a dominant force. Yet.

 

Paul Goldschmidt (1B, ARI)

Last 14 days: 0 HR, .238/.385/.357, .434 xSLG, .271 xBA (.163 xISO), 89.8 mph at 16.4 degrees, 3 barrels, 52 PA.

Season Total: 29 HR, .259/.341/.463, .505 xSLG, .266 xBA (.239 xISO), 90.0 mph at 15.0 degrees (94.7 mph EVAB), 43 barrels, 600 PA.

Worried about Goldschmidt's recent power outage? Don't be too worried. He's got a 106 wRC+ in that time because he's walked a lot, and his xSLG indicates a lack of luck -- that .163 xISO may be the largest we've seen this season in this column in a faller's sample.

Despite all his ups and downs in 2018 and '19 -- and 2019 has been somewhat more down -- this is also still a guy who will run into plenty of bombs. And he's been somewhat unlucky this season, not just the past two weeks, with an expected slugging rate 42 points above his actual.

That, of course, doesn't mean he won't continue to under-perform his contact the last couple weeks, but he certainly has the Statcast data to recover as the season winds down.

 

Jonathan Villar (2B, BAL)

Last 14 days: 0 HR, .283/.314/.326, .354 xSLG, .251 xBA (.103 xISO), 87.3 mph at 6.3 degrees, 1 barrels, 51 PA.

Season Total: 20 HR, .277/.344/.453, .390 xSLG, .248 xBA (.142 xISO), 87.7 mph at 6.4 degrees (92.5 mph EVAB), 26 barrels, 624 PA.

A riser only two weeks ago, it did not look at all like Villar's power run was sustainable. And it wasn't.

That said, his contact the past two weeks by most measures -- including exit velocity, launch angle, and xBA -- isn't too far off from his season marks. But it's noticeable in places, like his xISO. And the low exit velocity and low launch angle is not a good combination.

Just getting to 20 home runs is an accomplishment for Villar, although it does very much seem like a 20-homer season borne of the bouncy baseballs this season. Don't expect much more power from Villar this season or next.

 

Last Week's Risers

Player Last Week Update (8/27-9/2)
Starlin Castro 34 PA, 2 HR, .321/.441/.679 - So maybe there was something to his spike
Anthony Santander 26 PA, 2 HR, .192/.192/.423 - All or nothing week but power sticks around
Jake Cave 14 PA, 0 HR, .154/.214/.308 - Playing time not quite there, nor the power
Ronny Rodriguez 16 PA, 0 HR, .143/.250/.143 - No surprise there
Aaron Judge 27 PA, 2 HR, .240/.296/.520 - No surprise there, at least in the home runs; OBP a touch low

 

Last Week's Fallers

Player Last Week Update (8/27-9/2)
Eloy Jimenez 27 PA, 2 HR, .280/.333/.680 - A fine recovery
Trea Turner 26 PA, 0 HR, .385/.385/.500 - BABIP helps with the power still missing
Eddie Rosario 21 PA, 1 HR, .143/.143/.286 - I guess with a slash line like that you'll take it coming with a homer
Yasiel Puig 28 PA, 0 HR, .320 .357 .400 - As for Turner, BABIP keeps afloat during the power outage
Wilson Ramos 23 PA, 1 HR, .350/.435/.650 - A pretty standard and useful week despite the Thor drama

More 20 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF