X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Positions to Prioritize: Statistical Scarcity Breakdown

Rafael Devers - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB DFS Picks, Betting Picks

Jon Anderson's statistical analysis on positional scarcity for 2022 fantasy baseball and advice on which positions to prioritize in drafts.

Position scarcity is a big topic of debate every fantasy baseball season. Not all positions on the baseball diamond are created equal, and they often give us quite different arrays of offensive production for fantasy purposes. In this post, I will take a close look at what's going on at each position by the projections and see if there are any adjustments we should make to our draft strategies because of it.

The first thing to mention is that we have to be careful not to weigh this stuff too heavily. You should not be selecting a wildly inferior player just because he fills a weaker position. The most important thing is still to draft the best statistics. It is completely inevitable that the projection systems will be seriously wrong on lots and lots of players, so at the end of the season, things will not have played out how we were thinking, even in the arena of these positional breakdowns.

Projections are the best things we have to work with right now for this kind of analysis, and this kind of stuff is still useful - you just have to take it with proper weighting. Let's talk about it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Which Stats are Where?

Here's an interactive plot you can use to see which positions are heavier on what statistics. I took the top-300 players by current ADP (197 of them are hitters) along with their primary position (one position per player, so, for example, Trea Turner is a second baseman here, not a shortstop), and then I averaged out the projected stats across the different positions.

Important note, the "UT" spot is utility and it encompasses just three players, Shohei Ohtani, Franmil Reyes, and Nelson Cruz. You can click around on the five different stats here and see the numbers update.

What we find:

  1. Steals are mostly in the middle infield. The top two projected steals sources (Adalberto Mondesi and Starling Marte) play third base and outfield respectively, but after that, we have seven of the next 12 being middle-infielders.
  2. Homers are pretty evenly spread out, except at second base and catcher. That gives you a chance to catch up on the field in homers by taking one of the few second base or catcher eligible players that can hit the long ball.
  3. The catcher is a wasteland for the batting average, with the average catcher projected to hit just .246. Shortstop is the only position above .270, really showing how far the average has slid in that category over the years.

 

Points Leagues Positional Depth

Next, I took the ATC projections and converted the projections into DraftKings points, using their scoring system. Then I found the average total DK projection for each position, here are the results:

The utility spot comes out on top just because it has just three hitters in it, all three of which are pretty good hitters. The true top position here is shortstop, with an average projection of 1,152 DraftKings points for the top-17 shortstops, and that is even with Trea Turner being in the 2B category.

The third base stands out as pretty weak as well, with the top-22 third basemen averaging just 1,063 projected DraftKings points. They are narrowly edged out by outfielders despite there being 70 players in that bin. And catchers remain pathetic, being just three-fourths of second base, the second-worst projection.

 

Players Compared to Positional Average

Now for your feature film. For this, I calculated Z-Scores for the standard 5x5 league type. For more on Z-Scores, you can read this. In short, a z-score is just a number that compares a player's projection in a single category with the overall field in that category. It's a good way to compare the categories against each other. I found each player's z-score in all five categories and averaged them out to get one score for the player. After that, I found the average overall z-score for each position and then compared each player's individual z-score with that.

The full results are in the table below, here's a quick description of each column.

Player Z: The individual player's average Z-Score across the five different categories
Position Z: The average "Player Z" for every player at the given position
Delta: Player Z minus Position Z, the higher the number, the better the player is compared to the rest of his position.

Full results here, you can search a player or position in the search box and you can sort by any column you like.

Some takeaways:

  • We see the lack of depth at the catcher position really showing here as Salvador Perez comes in at #8 overall. By this criterion, that makes him a first-round pick. There are all kinds of reasons not to pick Perez in the first round that outweigh this one reason to do it, but it does make the point that you can really get ahead of your league-mates by having the catcher that has a huge offensive year on your team.
  • While Fernando Tatis Jr. has the highest individual Z-Score by quite a large margin, he comes in behind Trea Turner in the "Delta" column just because of the difference in positional depth between SS and 2B.
  • There is a serious drop-off after the top-eight overall hitters. After Bo Bichette and his 1.37 Z-score, you go the whole way down to 1.26 to Shohei Ohtani. I would not consider taking a pitcher inside the top-eight picks because of this.
  • We also see the stock of Rafael Devers and Manny Machado come up a bit, as they are both in the top-15 players here. After those top three names at 3B, there's a steep drop-off, as you can see if you search the table for "3B".
  • On the flip side of that, you have guys like Xander Bogaerts and Francisco Lindor, who I would downgrade because of the depth of their position. It's pretty easy to find a similar projection to them as the position, so there's no real reason to reach too high for them (although I do believe we see this at least slightly reflected in the ADP).

I'll leave it to you to sort through the rest of the table and see what you can find. Reach out to me on Twitter @JonPGH as always with questions or data requests!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jerami Grant15 mins ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal17 mins ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II17 mins ago

Tagged With A One Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons22 mins ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young23 mins ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser32 mins ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo36 mins ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud38 mins ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Edouard Julien44 mins ago

Making First Start Of The Season
Isaiah Stewart46 mins ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba50 mins ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga56 mins ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry57 mins ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Dylan Crews59 mins ago

Not Starting Against Blue Jays
Jaylen Brown1 hour ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault1 hour ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.1 hour ago

Sitting Out In New York
Alex Laferriere1 hour ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Paul Goldschmidt1 hour ago

Hitting Leadoff Again
Donte DiVincenzo1 hour ago

Suspended For One Game
Jonathan Aranda1 hour ago

Christopher Morel Sitting Against Pirates
Miles McBride1 hour ago

Still Out On Tuesday Night
Luke Schenn1 hour ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Jose Siri1 hour ago

Making Another Start In Center Field
Dante Fabbro1 hour ago

Returns Against Predators
Karl-Anthony Towns1 hour ago

Now Questionable Versus Philadelphia
Brett Baty1 hour ago

Sitting Against A Right-Hander
Kyle Higashioka2 hours ago

Back In The Lineup, Jonah Heim Takes A Seat
Naz Reid2 hours ago

Suspended For One Game
Vinnie Pasquantino2 hours ago

Sitting On Tuesday
Clarke Schmidt2 hours ago

Throws Three-Inning Sim Game
Sean Manaea2 hours ago

Shut Down For Two Weeks
David Bednar2 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jake McCarthy2 hours ago

Back In The Lineup Tuesday
Zach Neto2 hours ago

Starting Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Jo Adell3 hours ago

Starting On Tuesday
Nick Robertson3 hours ago

Astros Acquire Nick Robertson From Blue Jays
Iván Herrera3 hours ago

Ivan Herrera Sitting, Pedro Pages Will Start At Catcher Tuesday
Francisco Lindor3 hours ago

Returns To The Lineup On Tuesday
Detroit Lions4 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Christian Encarnacion-Strand4 hours ago

Not In Reds Lineup Tuesday
Jesse Chavez4 hours ago

DFA'd, Braves Select Zach Thompson To MLB Roster
Tennessee Titans4 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders4 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Adam Ottavino4 hours ago

And Yankees Agree On One-Year Deal
Raheem Blackshear4 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins4 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL4 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä4 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway5 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys5 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal5 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy5 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Geno Smith5 hours ago

Raiders Working On Extension With Geno Smith
Chris Godwin5 hours ago

Buccaneers Optimistic Chris Godwin Will Be Ready For Week 1
Josh Norris5 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams5 hours ago

Coleman Shelton Expected To Start Again In 2025
Brady Tkachuk5 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams5 hours ago

Rams Open To Drafting A Quarterback
Kyren Williams5 hours ago

Rams To Discuss Long-Term Deal With Kyren Williams
Aaron Rodgers5 hours ago

Signs "Pointing" Toward Aaron Rodgers Signing With Steelers
Brock Purdy6 hours ago

49ers Optimistic On Getting Extension Done With Brock Purdy
Jordan Spieth7 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp7 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim7 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood7 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau8 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole8 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Cole Anthony9 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Tuesday
Jerami Grant9 hours ago

Likely To Miss Another Game Tuesday
Anfernee Simons9 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday's Game
Scoot Henderson9 hours ago

Unavailable Tuesday
Deandre Ayton10 hours ago

Out Against Hawks
AJ Green10 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Tuesday
Kyle Lowry10 hours ago

Picks Up A Questionable Tag
Casey DeSmith11 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment11 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka12 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov12 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov12 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes12 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens21 hours ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA21 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy22 hours ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman23 hours ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
New York Jets1 day ago

Jets To Wait On Contract Extensions For Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Jameson Williams1 day ago

Detroit To Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Brandon Aiyuk1 day ago

49ers Expected To Hold Brandon Aiyuk
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki1 day ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Rickie Fowler1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 52nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Bud Cauley1 day ago

Finishes Tied For Fourth At Valspar Championship
Sam Burns1 day ago

Misses The Cut At Valspar Championship
Daniel Berger1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 20th At The PLAYERS Championship
Treylon Burks1 day ago

Unlikely To Be Ready For Training Camp
Keenan Allen1 day ago

Chargers Not Ruling Out Reuniting With Keenan Allen
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano1 day ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry2 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF