X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Positions to Prioritize: Statistical Scarcity Breakdown

Rafael Devers - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB DFS Picks, Betting Picks

Jon Anderson's statistical analysis on positional scarcity for 2022 fantasy baseball and advice on which positions to prioritize in drafts.

Position scarcity is a big topic of debate every fantasy baseball season. Not all positions on the baseball diamond are created equal, and they often give us quite different arrays of offensive production for fantasy purposes. In this post, I will take a close look at what's going on at each position by the projections and see if there are any adjustments we should make to our draft strategies because of it.

The first thing to mention is that we have to be careful not to weigh this stuff too heavily. You should not be selecting a wildly inferior player just because he fills a weaker position. The most important thing is still to draft the best statistics. It is completely inevitable that the projection systems will be seriously wrong on lots and lots of players, so at the end of the season, things will not have played out how we were thinking, even in the arena of these positional breakdowns.

Projections are the best things we have to work with right now for this kind of analysis, and this kind of stuff is still useful - you just have to take it with proper weighting. Let's talk about it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Which Stats are Where?

Here's an interactive plot you can use to see which positions are heavier on what statistics. I took the top-300 players by current ADP (197 of them are hitters) along with their primary position (one position per player, so, for example, Trea Turner is a second baseman here, not a shortstop), and then I averaged out the projected stats across the different positions.

Important note, the "UT" spot is utility and it encompasses just three players, Shohei Ohtani, Franmil Reyes, and Nelson Cruz. You can click around on the five different stats here and see the numbers update.

What we find:

  1. Steals are mostly in the middle infield. The top two projected steals sources (Adalberto Mondesi and Starling Marte) play third base and outfield respectively, but after that, we have seven of the next 12 being middle-infielders.
  2. Homers are pretty evenly spread out, except at second base and catcher. That gives you a chance to catch up on the field in homers by taking one of the few second base or catcher eligible players that can hit the long ball.
  3. The catcher is a wasteland for the batting average, with the average catcher projected to hit just .246. Shortstop is the only position above .270, really showing how far the average has slid in that category over the years.

 

Points Leagues Positional Depth

Next, I took the ATC projections and converted the projections into DraftKings points, using their scoring system. Then I found the average total DK projection for each position, here are the results:

The utility spot comes out on top just because it has just three hitters in it, all three of which are pretty good hitters. The true top position here is shortstop, with an average projection of 1,152 DraftKings points for the top-17 shortstops, and that is even with Trea Turner being in the 2B category.

The third base stands out as pretty weak as well, with the top-22 third basemen averaging just 1,063 projected DraftKings points. They are narrowly edged out by outfielders despite there being 70 players in that bin. And catchers remain pathetic, being just three-fourths of second base, the second-worst projection.

 

Players Compared to Positional Average

Now for your feature film. For this, I calculated Z-Scores for the standard 5x5 league type. For more on Z-Scores, you can read this. In short, a z-score is just a number that compares a player's projection in a single category with the overall field in that category. It's a good way to compare the categories against each other. I found each player's z-score in all five categories and averaged them out to get one score for the player. After that, I found the average overall z-score for each position and then compared each player's individual z-score with that.

The full results are in the table below, here's a quick description of each column.

Player Z: The individual player's average Z-Score across the five different categories
Position Z: The average "Player Z" for every player at the given position
Delta: Player Z minus Position Z, the higher the number, the better the player is compared to the rest of his position.

Full results here, you can search a player or position in the search box and you can sort by any column you like.

Some takeaways:

  • We see the lack of depth at the catcher position really showing here as Salvador Perez comes in at #8 overall. By this criterion, that makes him a first-round pick. There are all kinds of reasons not to pick Perez in the first round that outweigh this one reason to do it, but it does make the point that you can really get ahead of your league-mates by having the catcher that has a huge offensive year on your team.
  • While Fernando Tatis Jr. has the highest individual Z-Score by quite a large margin, he comes in behind Trea Turner in the "Delta" column just because of the difference in positional depth between SS and 2B.
  • There is a serious drop-off after the top-eight overall hitters. After Bo Bichette and his 1.37 Z-score, you go the whole way down to 1.26 to Shohei Ohtani. I would not consider taking a pitcher inside the top-eight picks because of this.
  • We also see the stock of Rafael Devers and Manny Machado come up a bit, as they are both in the top-15 players here. After those top three names at 3B, there's a steep drop-off, as you can see if you search the table for "3B".
  • On the flip side of that, you have guys like Xander Bogaerts and Francisco Lindor, who I would downgrade because of the depth of their position. It's pretty easy to find a similar projection to them as the position, so there's no real reason to reach too high for them (although I do believe we see this at least slightly reflected in the ADP).

I'll leave it to you to sort through the rest of the table and see what you can find. Reach out to me on Twitter @JonPGH as always with questions or data requests!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jackson Merrill1 hour ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Jrue Holiday1 hour ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 hour ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Luis Castillo1 hour ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Al Horford1 hour ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Seiya Suzuki1 hour ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Kristaps Porzingis2 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet2 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dennis Santana2 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Evan Phillips2 hours ago

Tony Gonsolin, Evan Phillips Starting Rehab Assignments
Dean Wade2 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
George Springer2 hours ago

Hits First Homer In Win Over Nationals
Alex Bregman2 hours ago

Considering Using Torpedo Bat
Trae Young2 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Freddie Freeman2 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Ozzie Albies3 hours ago

Moving To Leadoff Spot On Wednesday
Joel Embiid3 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin3 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Freddy Peralta3 hours ago

Dazzles In No-Decision Against Royals
Filip Chytil3 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Jackson Chourio3 hours ago

Picks Up Three Hits, First Homer In Extra-Innings Win
Declan Chisholm3 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Michael Harris II3 hours ago

Sitting Against Lefty On Wednesday
Keaton Wallace3 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard3 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Gunnar Henderson3 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Appearance On Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta3 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Paul Skenes3 hours ago

Wins His First Game Of The Season
Cole Ragans3 hours ago

Fans 10 In No-Decision On Wednesday
Eeli Tolvanen3 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Ketel Marte4 hours ago

Agrees To Six-Year Extension With Diamondbacks
Jaden Schwartz4 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
Iván Herrera4 hours ago

Ivan Herrera Slugs Three Homers, Drives In Six In Win Over Angels
Brayan Bello5 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Start On Sunday
5 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
5 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Ketel Marte5 hours ago

Diamondbacks Working On Extension For Ketel Marte
5 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams5 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Frankie Montas5 hours ago

Playing Catch From 60 Feet
Trea Turner5 hours ago

Returns To Wednesday's Lineup
Cleveland Browns7 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots7 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
7 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody7 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers8 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers10 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans10 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett10 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns10 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals10 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown10 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Pittsburgh Steelers11 hours ago

All Options On The Table For Steelers At Quarterback
Jordan Mason11 hours ago

To Factor Into Short-Yardage, Goal-Line Situations
Bennedict Mathurin11 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Joe Milton III11 hours ago

Patriots Have Received Multiple Trade Inquiries For Joe Milton III
Myles Turner11 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford12 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday12 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown12 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham12 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis12 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard13 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel14 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko14 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson14 hours ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson14 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin14 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young19 hours ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama19 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim19 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Evan Engram20 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Caleb Williams21 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge21 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick23 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners24 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 day ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele1 day ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry1 day ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud1 day ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba1 day ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry1 day ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault1 day ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere1 day ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro1 day ago

Returns Against Predators
Olli Määttä1 day ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth1 day ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp1 day ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim1 day ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood1 day ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau1 day ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole1 day ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF