Points League Busts: Outfielders Set to Fall Short of ADP in 2022

This article will examine a few eligible outfielders for the 2022 MLB season that are being selected earlier than their Steamer projections suggest they should in points leagues and H2H points formats. RotoBaller's fantasy baseball points analyst Antonio Losada will be offering a few picks for both potential overperformers (sleepers) and shortcomers (busts) when it comes to the following baseball season at each of the six (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF) rosterable positions through the remainder of the offseason gearing up to training camps and the preseason. ADP figures come from point-format contests over NFBC.

In general, points leagues and H2H points formats are extremely underserved by the fantasy baseball community and fantasy baseball outlets. But in case you weren't aware, here at RotoBaller we really take pride in and specialize in points leagues. All through the preseason and MLB season, we'll be publishing rankings, tools, and analysis articles all geared for fantasy baseball points and H2H points leagues.

Before we get to the players themselves, let's quickly review points leagues and how they are different than other formats. Typically, points leagues have different league settings and scoring formats than other fantasy baseball leagues. Different MLB stats and categories are assigned different point values, and those can vary by individual league settings. Those different point buckets are then added up over the course of a scoring period or season. In many cases, hitters who walk more and strike out less are preferred for points leagues. Also, many league formats tend to give more weight to pitchers than normal as they can easily accrue points through categories like Innings Pitched. Without further ado, let's get it popping!

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Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 66.1 - OVR Rk: 91 - POS Rk: 36

There are 21 outfielders getting drafted inside the top-75 of points league drafts as I'm writing this. Randy Aronzarena is one of them. Randy Arozarena is also the worst of them. No shade thrown, but it is just the truth. Arozarena isn't getting off draft boards as high as other players in that outfielder group are doing, but he's boasting the lowest OVR Rk. finish (per Steamer projections) among them all. He's a borderline OF3 in 12-team leagues, and outside of the top-30 OF for those in 10-team shallower competitions. Not the greatest outlook.

Our pal Randy is just 26 years of age, so we gotta cut him some slack. He's played three MLB seasons and one of those fell right into the forgettable Pandemic 2020 year. Now, if we trust the not-precisely-small sample of 680 PA in the past two seasons, what Arozarena has done in Tampa (he debuted for St. Louis in 2019) isn't that encouraging going forward. The young man has gone from an AVG of .300 to .281 and lastly .274. Same story with the SLG dropping almost two full points between the last two seasons, and the OPS regressing from elite (1.022 in 2020) to only good (0.815 last year).

Yes, there were some positives as his improvement at the plate when it came to seeing it coming and letting it go (from 7.9 BB% to 9.3) and a subtle downtick in K% (28.9 to 28.1, virtually nonexistent change, though), but the story is the same: bad discipline killing half of Randy's upside in points formats. The 172 SO projection is only beaten by those of the following two fadable players highlighted below and is tied for third with Aaron Judge. The difference: Judge projects to 84 walks compared to Arozarena's 59; Judge projects to 40 HRs compared to Randy's 25. On and on and on it goes...

Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 25.8 - OVR Rk: 64 - POS Rk: 20

ESPN is way lower on Teoscar than Steamer, by the looks of the season-end ranking from the latter and the preseason ranking from the former. For ESPN, Hernandez is the 26th-best OF out there in terms of 2022 potential outcome. For Steamer, he's a top-20 outfielder. The gap is substantial, but it makes sense considering ESPN has Teo as the Blue Jays' DH instead of a daily OF'er. Anyway, Teo should rack up his good 600+ PA without much trouble... unless you're one of his fantasy GMs, of course.

See, Teoscar isn't bad! Hernandez has posted 2.68 and 2.77 FPPG in the past two years of play and those average tallies prorated to a full-season basis would have yielded 388 and 399 FP, pretty much top-10 figures at the outfielder position, easily. He's also boasting a two-year average of .350 BABIP that screams nothing but regression (career prior average at a reasonable/average .304).

If and only if we trust the career-lowest 24.9 K% repeating itself next year, then maybe Hernandez hands us some goodies. The problem, though, is that although seemingly impossible (6.8 BB% in 2020), Hernandez found a way to drop his walk rate even more to another career-low with a 6.1%. Jesus Christ. The jump in overall production (skipping Pandemic 2020) is a little fluky and out-of-left-fieldish: Hernandez went from averaging 1.73 FPPG in 2018-19 to a full point above that mark last season. I'm sorry, but I'm not going to be paying top-25 ADP for a regressing-to-2.00-FPPG man.

Tyler O'Neill, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 47.8 - OVR Rk: 86 - POS Rk: 32

O'Neill from 2018-20: 450 PA for a total of 183 FP and a prorated 244 FP per 600 PA. O'Neill last season: 537 PA for 324 FP and a prorated 362 per 600 PA. At the end of the day, this man has gone from averaging 1.08 FPPG to out of nowhere finishing last year at a ridiculous 2.35 mark. I mean, that's surely nothing incredible or unheard of, but the jump was legit insane from a personal perspective.

2021 is the only thing boosting O'Neill's ADP to a top-50 pick while he barely projects to be a top-30 outfielder next season. The problem, though, is that Tyler walked just 38 times (7.1%) while striking out a freakish 168 times (31.3%) for a BB/K ratio of 0.23 over the year. What I'm saying is what Steamer is projecting: 191 (one-ninety-one) strikeouts next season, which is to say almost 20 more than the second-highest projected player on that front. Lord, have mercy.

Only Byron Buxton has a lower OBP among OF with 500+ PA in his 2022 Steamer line. No-freaking-body has a lower AVG, and while the 85+100 R+RBI are fantastic, it's not that they won't get vanished by the ridiculous SO projection to end handing Tyler a negative-6 FP. Sheeeeeesh. Steamer seems to believe the hype, though. The homers are up at 37 after hitting 34 last year. If this guy can keep up his blistering 2021 pace, then that'd be great. Are you betting on that, though, and spending such a high pick on it? You might, I for sure won't.

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