TAP FOR 6 MONTHS OF PREMIUM FREE 💰
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Poetry in Motion: The Sweet Stroke of Xander Bogaerts

Jackie Bradley Jr. didn't even have the most significant hitting streak on his own team this season. Not hating, just stating. Xander Bogaerts saw his streak end at 26 games last night in Toronto, just short of Bradley's 29, but in reality Bogaerts is the far superior fantasy option in both the short and long term. During Bradley's impressive streak, he notched 44 hits, eight home runs, 30 RBI, 19 R and one steal. Over his past 29 games before Friday's 0-for-4 effort, Bogaerts recorded 46 hits, five home runs, 21 RBI, 24 R, and two steals. Pretty even overall from a fantasy standpoint, but looking back to April we can see that Bogaerts preceded his streak with two separate six-game streaks and an eight-game streak before that. Bradley was hitting a mere. 233 before going on his tear, but Bogaerts was already at .309. Not a big surprise for the 2015 Silver Slugger award winner.

Since the end of his streak, Bradley is down 20 points in AVG and will likely continue to crawl down just below .300, as he was a .294 career hitter in the minors. Remember, just two years ago Bradley only managed a .198 average over 384 at-bats. This made Bradley's streak more newsworthy because it came from an unexpected source. In comparison, Bogaerts' streak shouldn't have been unexpected. In 2014, while Bradley was struggling to stick with the big club, Bogaerts was rated the #2 overall prospect in the minors by multiple publications. He found Major League success pretty quickly, finishing second in the AL with a .320 AVG last season. So, what is the key to his success and can he really sustain his elite production?

Let's start with the obvious. His .401 BABIP is extremely high, but he sustained a .372 BABIP across 613 AB last season, so this isn't uncharacteristically high for him. Bogaerts has dropped his SwStr% each season against MLB pitching, down to 14.5% this season. He has also raised his BB% to 7.3%, up from last year's 4.9%. Basically, he is improving his eye and finding a way to put more balls in play.

Bogaerts lines high strike to center

He knows just where to put 'em (where they ain't).

What's slightly unusual is that Bogaerts is hitting more ground balls and yet increasing his average at the same time. Sabermetricians usually value line drives over ground balls, but Bogaerts has seen his LD% drop to 20% and his ground ball rate increase in 2016, his best season so far. His 1.15 GB/FB actually matches last season's ratio, but those grounders are turning into hits for Bogaerts more than expected. This may regulate itself over time, but it seems his selectivity at the plate and tendency to pull the ball without hitting an abundance of fly balls is resulting in quality hits.

Bogaerts grounder hit

This certainly could have gone for an easy out, but didn't. Sorry, I don't have a more clever explanation than that.

More specifically, Bogaerts is pulling pitches on the inside half of the plate at a much higher rate this year. On pitches down and in, he has a .256 AVG/P with a .410 SLG/P. A quick look at his spray chart shows that Bogaerts is pulling a majority of his ground balls, many of them for hits obviously. We often associate ground ball hitters with weak contact, but Bogaerts again is an exception.

Bogaerts lines double on low fastball

In terms of power, Bogaerts may never be a 20+ HR hitter and may not even come close to the mark. Of his six home runs, all have gone to left field even though his fly balls are evenly distributed across the field. It would seem that Bogaerts does not yet possess opposite field power to the point where that HR/FB rate will spike this year. His 11.8% HR/FB seems sustainable, although it is up from last year's rate of 5.3% and his career rate of 7.3%. At best, he will hit 15 HR which seems perfectly acceptable for fantasy purposes when you hit in the neighborhood of .350.

Bogaerts homers to left

Look, he's already leading the league in average. Asking him to hit more homers just seems greedy.

Pitchers who want to adjust to Bogaerts' tendencies will likely start attacking him down and away. On pitches on the lower outside corner of the strike zone, Bogaerts has a 67% Contact%. He isn't registering lower than 87% on any other region of the strike zone. That figure drops down to 63% when he is behind in the count. This isn't a common occurrence as Bogaerts' 16.2% K% is still fairly good.

Bogaerts strikes out

Oh Sonny Gray, where have you gone?

Xander Bogaerts is more than just a streaky hitter or the latest Boston player to catch fire. He has been known as a top prospect for a while, but has seemingly come under scrutinty for not showing more power or living up to unrealistic expectations. The truth is Bogaerts could lead the league in hitting this year and contend to do so for years to come. At the top of a loaded Red Sox lineup, his run scoring (44 - 3rd in MLB) and batting average (.343 - 3rd in MLB) are both elite. Bogaerts is a keeper in the truest sense and should be treated as a prized asset in all fantasy leagues.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

LeBron James

Available Versus Sacramento
Zion Williamson

Ruled Out Versus Clippers
Shelby Miller

Officially Placed on 60-Day Injured List
Kevin Love

Resting Monday Against Nuggets
Jacob deGrom

is Nearing Spring Debut
Tristan Vukcevic

Could Miss Game Vs. Houston
José Soriano

Jose Soriano has Start Pushed Back
John Collins

Cleared to Play Sunday
Bobby Miller

Being Viewed as Reliever
Brandon Clarke

to be Re-Evaluated in Two Weeks
Walker Jenkins

is Diagnosed with Hamstring Strain
Caleb Martin

Returns Against Thunder
P.J. Washington

Naji Marshall Ruled Out Sunday
Kyshawn George

Could Miss Game Against Houston
Baylor Scheierman

Cleared to Play Sunday
Rui Hachimura

Set to Return Against Kings
LeBron James

Questionable Against Kings
Jonathan Drouin

Unavailable Sunday
Darcy Kuemper

Won't Play Monday Due to Illness
Andrew Mangiapane

Oilers Place Andrew Mangiapane on Waivers
Jabari Smith Jr.

Still Out on Monday
Uvis Balinskis

Out Sunday
Jalen Johnson

Back on Sunday Night
Dmitry Kulikov

Comes Off Injured Reserve
Mark Stone

Exits With Injury Sunday
Deni Avdija

Remains Out on Sunday
Zach Edey

to Undergo Another Ankle Surgery
Merrill Kelly

"Optimistic" About Being Ready by Opening Day
Gabriel Moreno

Can Gabriel Moreno Put Together a Fully Healthy Season in 2026?
Mark Vientos

May Be Limited to Part-Time Role in New York
Kyler Murray

Likely to be Released
Noah Cameron

Can Noah Cameron Repeat His Breakout 2025 Season?
Justin Steele

"Full-Go" on Throwing, Still Eyeing May or June Return
Travis Etienne Jr.

Not Expected to be Franchise-Tagged
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Planning to Release Aaron Jones Sr.?
Samuel Basallo

is Returning on Sunday
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Sign Oliver Marmol to Two-Year Extension
Thomas White

is Diagnosed with Oblique Strain
Carmen Mlodzinski

to Compete for Starting Rotation Spot
Tyler Reddick

Could Make History at COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Still the Favorite at COTA
Christopher Bell

Will Be Tough to Beat at COTA
Jacob Melton

is Returning on Sunday
AJ Allmendinger

Could Contend at COTA
Connor Zilisch

Carries Plenty of Upside for DFS at COTA
Chase Elliott

May be A Strong Contender Again at COTA
Chris Buescher

Is Nothing But Consistent at Road Courses
Ross Chastain

May Be An Underrated Competitor for the Win at COTA
William Byron

Is William Byron a Viable DFS Option for COTA?
Carson Hocevar

Needs Clean Race at COTA
Nick Suzuki

Enjoys Three-Point Night Against Capitals
Rasmus Dahlin

Collects Three Points Saturday
Kyle Larson

Could be A Decent DFS Option for COTA Lineups
Joel Kiviranta

in Concussion Protocol
Joel Eriksson Ek

Available Sunday
Ryan Blaney

Could Ryan Blaney be A Sleeper DFS Option for All Formats for COTA?
Mark Scheifele

Expected to Play Sunday
Chase Briscoe

Should DFS Players Roster Chase Briscoe at COTA?
Adam Wilsby

Exits Early Versus Stars
Gage Goncalves

Hurt in Saturday's Loss
Russell Westbrook

Off Injury Report Sunday
Kawhi Leonard

Set to Play Against Pelicans
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Is A Favorable Value Option for COTA DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs

Could Ty Gibbs Be A Rosterable DFS Play for COTA?
Michael McDowell

Is Michael McDowell A Favorable DFS Option for COTA?
Donovan Mitchell

to Miss Third Straight Game
Joel Embiid

Sidelined Three Games with Oblique Injury
Cooper Flagg

Remains Sidelined Sunday
Cale Makar

Scores Twice Versus Chicago
Connor McDavid

has a Three-Assist Game
Keston Hiura

Exits After Getting Hit by Pitch
Leo De Vries

Exits Early on Saturday
Kyle Stowers

is Dealing with Minor Hamstring Strain
Cody Bellinger

Dealing With Back Injury
Corbin Carroll

Likely to be Ready for Opening Day
Vladislav Namestnikov

Out Week-to-Week
Nino Niederreiter

Recovering From Surgery
Colton Parayko

Doubtful for Sunday
Zach Benson

Activated From Injured Reserve
Anthony Cirelli

a Game-Time Decision Saturday
Roope Hintz

Remains Out Saturday
Starling Marte

Royals Agree With Starling Marte
A.J. Brown

Patriots "Have Explored Trade Talks" Involving A.J. Brown
Lone'er Kavanagh

Set For UFC Mexico City Main Event
Brandon Moreno

Looks To Bounce Back
David Martinez

Set For UFC Mexico City Co-Main Event
Marlon Vera

In Dire Need Of Victory
King Green

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Zellhuber

Aims To Snap Two-Fight Skid
Felipe Bunes

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Édgar Cháirez

Edgar Chairez A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
George Pickens

Cowboys Not Interested in Trading George Pickens
Ashton Jeanty

Not in Line for Workhorse Role in 2026?
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Give Anthony Richardson Sr. Permission to Seek a Trade
Kyler Murray

Prefers to be Released
Derek Carr

"Strong Belief" That Derek Carr is "Very Serious" About Unretiring
Andy Dalton

Is Andy Dalton Available for a Trade?
Keith Mitchell

Making The Comfortable Return to PGA National
CFB

Chandler Morris Suing NCAA for Seventh Year of Eligibility
Chris Kirk

Searching for a Spark at Cognizant Classic
Brooks Koepka

Making Third PGA Tour Start at Cognizant Classic
Mackenzie Hughes

a Steady Option at Cognizant Classic
Seamus Power

Seeking More Green in Florida
PGA

Haotong Li Back From a Break as Florida Stretch Starts
Stephan Jaeger

Trying to Put Four Rounds Together in Florida
PGA

Nico Echavarria Again Attempting to Make the Weekend
Patrick Fishburn

Looking for a Spark at Cognizant Classic
Blades Brown

Set for Cognizant Classic Debut
Michael Thorbjornsen

Looking to Bounce Back at Cognizant Classic
Maxx Crosby

Raiders Expect Maxx Crosby to Return
Billy Horschel

Looks to Improve Season at Cognizant Classic
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Falcons Place Franchise Tag on Kyle Pitts Sr.
Joe Highsmith

Returns to Defend at Cognizant Classic
Quinshon Judkins

Out of Walking Boot, Will be Ready for Training Camp
Breece Hall

Jets Will Use Franchise Tag on Breece Hall if Extension isn't Reached
Joel Dahmen

Needs Better Consistency Heading Into The Florida Swing
Daniel Berger

Looks to Improve Putting as PGA Tour Begins Its Florida Swing
Kirk Cousins

Falcons Plan to Release Kirk Cousins
Zach Ertz

Plans to Return for 14th Season
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF