TAP FOR 6 MONTHS OF PREMIUM FREE 💰
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Poetry in Motion: The Sweet Stroke of Xander Bogaerts

Jackie Bradley Jr. didn't even have the most significant hitting streak on his own team this season. Not hating, just stating. Xander Bogaerts saw his streak end at 26 games last night in Toronto, just short of Bradley's 29, but in reality Bogaerts is the far superior fantasy option in both the short and long term. During Bradley's impressive streak, he notched 44 hits, eight home runs, 30 RBI, 19 R and one steal. Over his past 29 games before Friday's 0-for-4 effort, Bogaerts recorded 46 hits, five home runs, 21 RBI, 24 R, and two steals. Pretty even overall from a fantasy standpoint, but looking back to April we can see that Bogaerts preceded his streak with two separate six-game streaks and an eight-game streak before that. Bradley was hitting a mere. 233 before going on his tear, but Bogaerts was already at .309. Not a big surprise for the 2015 Silver Slugger award winner.

Since the end of his streak, Bradley is down 20 points in AVG and will likely continue to crawl down just below .300, as he was a .294 career hitter in the minors. Remember, just two years ago Bradley only managed a .198 average over 384 at-bats. This made Bradley's streak more newsworthy because it came from an unexpected source. In comparison, Bogaerts' streak shouldn't have been unexpected. In 2014, while Bradley was struggling to stick with the big club, Bogaerts was rated the #2 overall prospect in the minors by multiple publications. He found Major League success pretty quickly, finishing second in the AL with a .320 AVG last season. So, what is the key to his success and can he really sustain his elite production?

Let's start with the obvious. His .401 BABIP is extremely high, but he sustained a .372 BABIP across 613 AB last season, so this isn't uncharacteristically high for him. Bogaerts has dropped his SwStr% each season against MLB pitching, down to 14.5% this season. He has also raised his BB% to 7.3%, up from last year's 4.9%. Basically, he is improving his eye and finding a way to put more balls in play.

Bogaerts lines high strike to center

He knows just where to put 'em (where they ain't).

What's slightly unusual is that Bogaerts is hitting more ground balls and yet increasing his average at the same time. Sabermetricians usually value line drives over ground balls, but Bogaerts has seen his LD% drop to 20% and his ground ball rate increase in 2016, his best season so far. His 1.15 GB/FB actually matches last season's ratio, but those grounders are turning into hits for Bogaerts more than expected. This may regulate itself over time, but it seems his selectivity at the plate and tendency to pull the ball without hitting an abundance of fly balls is resulting in quality hits.

Bogaerts grounder hit

This certainly could have gone for an easy out, but didn't. Sorry, I don't have a more clever explanation than that.

More specifically, Bogaerts is pulling pitches on the inside half of the plate at a much higher rate this year. On pitches down and in, he has a .256 AVG/P with a .410 SLG/P. A quick look at his spray chart shows that Bogaerts is pulling a majority of his ground balls, many of them for hits obviously. We often associate ground ball hitters with weak contact, but Bogaerts again is an exception.

Bogaerts lines double on low fastball

In terms of power, Bogaerts may never be a 20+ HR hitter and may not even come close to the mark. Of his six home runs, all have gone to left field even though his fly balls are evenly distributed across the field. It would seem that Bogaerts does not yet possess opposite field power to the point where that HR/FB rate will spike this year. His 11.8% HR/FB seems sustainable, although it is up from last year's rate of 5.3% and his career rate of 7.3%. At best, he will hit 15 HR which seems perfectly acceptable for fantasy purposes when you hit in the neighborhood of .350.

Bogaerts homers to left

Look, he's already leading the league in average. Asking him to hit more homers just seems greedy.

Pitchers who want to adjust to Bogaerts' tendencies will likely start attacking him down and away. On pitches on the lower outside corner of the strike zone, Bogaerts has a 67% Contact%. He isn't registering lower than 87% on any other region of the strike zone. That figure drops down to 63% when he is behind in the count. This isn't a common occurrence as Bogaerts' 16.2% K% is still fairly good.

Bogaerts strikes out

Oh Sonny Gray, where have you gone?

Xander Bogaerts is more than just a streaky hitter or the latest Boston player to catch fire. He has been known as a top prospect for a while, but has seemingly come under scrutinty for not showing more power or living up to unrealistic expectations. The truth is Bogaerts could lead the league in hitting this year and contend to do so for years to come. At the top of a loaded Red Sox lineup, his run scoring (44 - 3rd in MLB) and batting average (.343 - 3rd in MLB) are both elite. Bogaerts is a keeper in the truest sense and should be treated as a prized asset in all fantasy leagues.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Egor Demin

Won't Play Versus Denver
Cam Thomas

Resting on Thursday Night
Aaron Judge

Appears to be Past his Elbow Issues
Bo Nix

Expected to Resume Training in 4-6 Weeks
Dan Vladar

Returns to Flyers Crease
Denton Mateychuk

Back in Action Wednesday
Stephen Halliday

Unavailable Versus Avalanche
Ross Colton

Won't Play Wednesday
Devon Toews

Still Out Wednesday
Simon Holmstrom

Expected to Return Wednesday
Ryan Pulock

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Michael Penix Jr.

Thinks he'll be Ready by April
Evan Carter

Establishes a Goal to Steal 30 Bases
Edouard Julien

Traded to the Rockies
Cleveland Browns

Browns Hiring Todd Monken as Next Head Coach
Jack St. Ivany

to Miss Up to Eight Weeks After Surgery
Cody Glass

Exits Early Tuesday Night
Anton Lundell

Expected to Be Available Thursday
Jordan Kyrou

Jake Neighbours Knocked Out of the Lineup Tuesday
Elias Lindholm

Hurt in Tuesday's Win
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Exits With Injury Tuesday
Ondrej Palat

Devils Send Ondrej Palat to the Islanders
Collin Murray-Boyles

Listed as Questionable for Wednesday's Game
Jock Landale

Available for Wednesday's Tilt
Kel'el Ware

in Danger of Missing Another Game
Sahith Theegala

Off to Much Better 2026 Start
Davion Mitchell

Iffy for Wednesday
Gary Woodland

an Intriguing Option at Torrey Pines This Week
Norman Powell

Questionable Wednesday
Tyler Herro

Remains Out Wednesday
CJ Abrams

Giants Offer "Aggressive Pitch" for CJ Abrams
Andrew Putnam

Hopes to Keep Momentum Rolling This Week
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic to Be Re-Evaluated in One Week
Matthieu Pavon

Seeks to Return to 2024 Form at Torrey Pines
Luke List

Still Looking For Birdies at Torrey Pines
Jake Knapp

Faces Stiff Challenge at Farmers Insurance Open
Rasmus Hojgaard

Needs to Play Better at Torrey Pines
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Could Struggle at Farmers Insurance Open
J.J. Spaun

A Steady Option At Farmers Insurance Open
Andrew Novak

Looking For More Success At Torrey Pines
Denny McCarthy

A Wild Card At Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa

Looks To Keep Resurgence Going At Torrey Pines
Joe Highsmith

Struggling Heading Into Torrey Pines
Wyndham Clark

Looks To Carry Momentum Into Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau

Aims To Turn Things Around At Torrey Pines
Darius Garland

Won't Be Available Wednesday
Akshay Bhatia

Looks to Bounce Back at Torrey Pines
Franz Wagner

Won't Play Wednesday
Draymond Green

Expected to Return Wednesday
Kawhi Leonard

Available Against Jazz
Jordan Goodwin

Starts Against Nets
Peyton Watson

Back for Nuggets Tuesday
Paul Goldschmidt

Yankees Expressing Interest in Re-Signing Paul Goldschmidt
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Ready to Rock Tuesday Night
Jamal Murray

Active Versus Pistons
Bo Bichette

Won't Play in World Baseball Classic
Aaron Wiggins

Moves to Starting Lineup Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Bobby Portis Replaces Giannis Antetokounmpo in Starting Unit
Joel Embiid

Ready to Take on Bucks
Paul George

Returns to Action Tuesday
NFL

Bill Belichick Won't be First-Ballot Hall of Famer
Leo Carlsson

to Miss Olympics
Alex Turcotte

Unavailable Tuesday
Carlos Correa

Won't Play for Puerto Rico in World Baseball Classic
Dylan Holloway

Remains Out Tuesday
Marco Rossi

to Return After Olympics
Thatcher Demko

Won't Return This Season
Sam Malinski

Inks Four-Year Extension With Avalanche
Bryan Rust

Slapped With Three-Game Suspension
Si Woo Kim

Looks to Continue Incredible Run at Torrey Pines
Jason Day

has a Good Chance to Keep Momentum This Weekend
Keegan Bradley

has Good Course History at Torrey Pines
Billy Horschel

Isn't a Great DFS Option at Torrey Pines
Aaron Rodgers

Mike McCarthy Says he Wants Aaron Rodgers to Return
Will Zalatoris

Has a Shot to Challenge at the Farmers Insurance Open
Drake Maye

Expected to be Fine for Super Bowl
Tennessee Titans

Titans Set to Hire Brian Daboll as New Offensive Coordinator
Buffalo Bills

Bills Promote Joe Brady to Head Coach
CFB

Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi Signs with Michigan
CFB

Darian Mensah Reaches Settlement with Duke, Expected to Land at Miami
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Not Drawing Interest on Open Market?
Shedeur Sanders

Named as Pro Bowl Replacement
Framber Valdez

Among Many High-End Pitchers on Free-Agent Market
Jose Altuve

Won't Participate in World Baseball Classic
Harrison Bader

Agrees With Giants on Two-Year Deal
Paddy Pimblett

Drops Decision
Justin Gaethje

Becomes the New Interim-Lightweight Champion
Song Yadong

Suffers Unanimous Decision Loss
MMA

Sean O'Malley Gets Back In The Win Column
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Extends His Win Streak
Derrick Lewis

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Officially Hire Mike McDaniel as Offensive Coordinator
Nathan Eovaldi

Doesn't Expect Any Limitations in Spring Training
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Dominates in NFC Championship Game Win
Matthew Stafford

Plans to Return in 2026
CFB

Arthur Smith to Become Ohio State's Offensive Coordinator
Bo Nix

Sidelined for 12 Weeks With Broken Ankle
Jose Altuve

to Mainly Play Second Base
Yu Darvish

Considering Retirement
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Finalizing Deal to Make Mike McCarthy Their Head Coach
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez Signs Seven-Year Extension With Guardians
Gunnar Henderson

is Fully Healthy Heading into Spring Training
Tyreek Hill

Dolphins Expected to Release Tyreek Hill
Paddy Pimblett

Set For Interim Lightweight Title Fight
Justin Gaethje

An Underdog At UFC 324
Song Yadong

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Sean O'Malley Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Derrick Lewis

Returns At UFC 324
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Philip Rivers

Interviewing for Bills Head-Coaching Job
NFL

Fernando Mendoza Officially Declares for NFL Draft
CFB

Arch Manning Undergoes Foot Surgery
Dalton Kincaid

Played Through Torn PCL
CFB

College Football Playoff Expected to Remain a 12-Team Field in 2026

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP