👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


Poetry in Motion: The Sweet Stroke of Xander Bogaerts

Jackie Bradley Jr. didn't even have the most significant hitting streak on his own team this season. Not hating, just stating. Xander Bogaerts saw his streak end at 26 games last night in Toronto, just short of Bradley's 29, but in reality Bogaerts is the far superior fantasy option in both the short and long term. During Bradley's impressive streak, he notched 44 hits, eight home runs, 30 RBI, 19 R and one steal. Over his past 29 games before Friday's 0-for-4 effort, Bogaerts recorded 46 hits, five home runs, 21 RBI, 24 R, and two steals. Pretty even overall from a fantasy standpoint, but looking back to April we can see that Bogaerts preceded his streak with two separate six-game streaks and an eight-game streak before that. Bradley was hitting a mere. 233 before going on his tear, but Bogaerts was already at .309. Not a big surprise for the 2015 Silver Slugger award winner.

Since the end of his streak, Bradley is down 20 points in AVG and will likely continue to crawl down just below .300, as he was a .294 career hitter in the minors. Remember, just two years ago Bradley only managed a .198 average over 384 at-bats. This made Bradley's streak more newsworthy because it came from an unexpected source. In comparison, Bogaerts' streak shouldn't have been unexpected. In 2014, while Bradley was struggling to stick with the big club, Bogaerts was rated the #2 overall prospect in the minors by multiple publications. He found Major League success pretty quickly, finishing second in the AL with a .320 AVG last season. So, what is the key to his success and can he really sustain his elite production?

Let's start with the obvious. His .401 BABIP is extremely high, but he sustained a .372 BABIP across 613 AB last season, so this isn't uncharacteristically high for him. Bogaerts has dropped his SwStr% each season against MLB pitching, down to 14.5% this season. He has also raised his BB% to 7.3%, up from last year's 4.9%. Basically, he is improving his eye and finding a way to put more balls in play.

Bogaerts lines high strike to center

He knows just where to put 'em (where they ain't).

What's slightly unusual is that Bogaerts is hitting more ground balls and yet increasing his average at the same time. Sabermetricians usually value line drives over ground balls, but Bogaerts has seen his LD% drop to 20% and his ground ball rate increase in 2016, his best season so far. His 1.15 GB/FB actually matches last season's ratio, but those grounders are turning into hits for Bogaerts more than expected. This may regulate itself over time, but it seems his selectivity at the plate and tendency to pull the ball without hitting an abundance of fly balls is resulting in quality hits.

Bogaerts grounder hit

This certainly could have gone for an easy out, but didn't. Sorry, I don't have a more clever explanation than that.

More specifically, Bogaerts is pulling pitches on the inside half of the plate at a much higher rate this year. On pitches down and in, he has a .256 AVG/P with a .410 SLG/P. A quick look at his spray chart shows that Bogaerts is pulling a majority of his ground balls, many of them for hits obviously. We often associate ground ball hitters with weak contact, but Bogaerts again is an exception.

Bogaerts lines double on low fastball

In terms of power, Bogaerts may never be a 20+ HR hitter and may not even come close to the mark. Of his six home runs, all have gone to left field even though his fly balls are evenly distributed across the field. It would seem that Bogaerts does not yet possess opposite field power to the point where that HR/FB rate will spike this year. His 11.8% HR/FB seems sustainable, although it is up from last year's rate of 5.3% and his career rate of 7.3%. At best, he will hit 15 HR which seems perfectly acceptable for fantasy purposes when you hit in the neighborhood of .350.

Bogaerts homers to left

Look, he's already leading the league in average. Asking him to hit more homers just seems greedy.

Pitchers who want to adjust to Bogaerts' tendencies will likely start attacking him down and away. On pitches on the lower outside corner of the strike zone, Bogaerts has a 67% Contact%. He isn't registering lower than 87% on any other region of the strike zone. That figure drops down to 63% when he is behind in the count. This isn't a common occurrence as Bogaerts' 16.2% K% is still fairly good.

Bogaerts strikes out

Oh Sonny Gray, where have you gone?

Xander Bogaerts is more than just a streaky hitter or the latest Boston player to catch fire. He has been known as a top prospect for a while, but has seemingly come under scrutinty for not showing more power or living up to unrealistic expectations. The truth is Bogaerts could lead the league in hitting this year and contend to do so for years to come. At the top of a loaded Red Sox lineup, his run scoring (44 - 3rd in MLB) and batting average (.343 - 3rd in MLB) are both elite. Bogaerts is a keeper in the truest sense and should be treated as a prized asset in all fantasy leagues.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Comfortably Into His Dynasty Prime
Saquon Barkley

Still a Capable League-Winner at a Sunken Dynasty Cost
Jack Campbell

Signs Four-Year Extension with Lions
Matthew Stafford

Signs One-Year Extension with Rams
Evan Mobley

Fills the Box Score in Game 2 Loss
James Harden

Held to Two Assists Thursday
Donovan Mitchell

Leads Cavaliers in Scoring in Game 2 Defeat
Karl-Anthony Towns

Records Double-Double in Game 2 Win
Sebastian Aho

Picks Up an Assist in Series-Opening Loss
Mikal Bridges

Adds 19 Points as Knicks Grab 2-0 Lead
Jalen Brunson

Hands Out 14 Assists in Game 2 Win
Seth Jarvis

Needs 33 Seconds to Score in Game 1 Loss
Josh Hart

Erupts for Playoff Career-High 26 Points in Game 2
Jaccob Slavin

Struggles in Game 1 Against Canadiens
Jakub Dobes

Sharp in Game 1 Victory
Cole Caufield

Bags Two Points in Impressive Road Win
Juraj Slafkovsky

Opens Conference Finals With Three-Point Performance
Nick Suzuki

Notches Three Assists in Game 1 Win Over Hurricanes
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Exits Early, X-Rays Come Back Negative
Jrue Holiday

Wants to Stay in Portland
Ayo Dosunmu

Timberwolves Hope to Bring Back Ayo Dosunmu
Dylan Harper

Considered Questionable for Friday Night
De'Aaron Fox

Listed as Questionable for Game 3
Jalen Williams

Questionable for Game 3 Against Spurs
Alex Tuch

Hopes to Remain in Buffalo
Sidney Crosby

Wants to Play for "as Many Years as Possible"
Troy Terry

Could Miss Start of Next Season Due to Hip Surgery
Arber Xhekaj

Scratched for Game 1 of Eastern Conference Finals
Jakub Dobes

Seeks More Success Against Hurricanes
Frederik Andersen

Looks to Stay Undefeated Thursday
Calvin Ridley

Not Taking Part in OTAs as Value Continues to Plummet
Carnell Tate

Receiving Early Buzz at OTAs
Ashton Jeanty

Bigger Role Could be Coming for Ashton Jeanty in Year 2
Robby Snelling

Will Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Malik Nabers

' Goal is to be Ready for Start of the Season
De'Von Achane

Dealing With Injury at OTAs?
Dalton Kincaid

Says he Feels "Really Good"
Keenan Allen

Door isn't Closed for Keenan Allen in Los Angeles
Ty Simpson

Does Ty Simpson Have First-Round Appeal in Rookie Drafts?
Fernando Mendoza

Working Behind Other QBs
Cam Ward

is "Perfectly Healthy"
James Cook III

Absent From OTA Practices This Week
Darnell Washington

Is it Time to Drop Darnell Washington in Dynasty Leagues?
Fernando Mendoza

a Top Dynasty Target Even if He Doesn't Start Week 1?
Tyreek Hill

Dynasty Outlook Dependent on Landing Spot
Mack Hollins

Should Managers Trade for Mack Hollins Amid Roster Questions?
Michael Wilson

a Prime Dynasty Sell Candidate
Jake Ferguson

Insurance Upside Makes Him a Borderline TE1 in Dynasty
Devin Vassell

Contributes 22 Points in Wednesday's Loss
Stephon Castle

Tallies Team-High 25 Points in Game 2 Loss
Victor Wembanyama

Records Eighth Postseason Double-Double
Isaiah Hartenstein

Bounces Back With Double-Double
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads Thunder to Game 2 Victory WIth 30 Points
Dylan Harper

Exits Game 2 Early Due to Right-Leg Injury
Jalen Williams

Suffers Another Hamstring Injury
Valeri Nichushkin

Ends Scoring Slump in Game 1 Loss
Nathan MacKinnon

Extends Point Streak With an Assist
Brett Howden

Pots Another Goal in Game 1 Win Against Avalanche
Tomas Hertl

Extends Point Streak to Four Games
Pavel Dorofeyev

Scores in Fourth Straight Outing
Carter Hart

Records Third Consecutive Win
Timothy Liljegren

Capitals Re-Sign Timothy Liljegren to Two-Year Extension
Jackson Merrill

Tweaks his Back on Wednesday, Pulled Early
Chicago Bulls

Jerry Stackhouse Emerges as Bulls Head-Coach Candidate
Cooper Flagg

Kon Knueppel Headline All-Rookie Team
Jiri Kulich

Aims to Return Next Season
CFB

Lincoln Riley Believes USC is Ready for Playoff Run
CFB

Notre Dame-Stanford Rivalry Renewed Through 2028
CFB

Ahmad Hardy Says He's "Back to the Road to Success"
CFB

Texas Tech Graduate Judge Recuses Himself from Brendan Sorsby Case
CFB

UCLA Tackle Jordan Davis Officially Eligible for 2026 Season
CFB

Bret Bielema Supports Significant College Football Playoff Expansion
Michael Thorbjornsen

Brings High Upside to CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Luke List

Carrying Poor Form Into CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Tom Kim

Hoping to Build on Strong Myrtle Beach Finish
PGA

Sungjae Im Brings Upside to TPC Craig Ranch
Billy Horschel

Looking for Turnaround at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Adam Hadwin

Difficult to Trust at TPC Craig Ranch
Tony Finau

Looking for Consistency at TPC Craig Ranch
Luke Clanton

Searching for Form at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Aaron Rai

Withdraws From CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Wyndham Clark

Can Wyndham Clark Find Form at CJ Cup?
Si Woo Kim

Looks To Stay Hot at CJ Cup
Scottie Scheffler

to Defend CJ Cup Byron Nelson Title This Week
Jordan Spieth

Looking For Victory at TPC Craig Ranch
PGA

Matti Schmid Looks to Keep Recent Momentum Going at TPC Craig Ranch
Brooks Koepka

a High-Upside Play at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Exits Early on Tuesday After Being Hit By Pitch
Chris Kirk

Continues Search For Putting Form at TPC Craig Ranch
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking to Shake Off Poor Major Showing at TPC Craig Ranch
Joel Dahmen

is of No DFS Consideration This Week in Dallas
Pierceson Coody

is Not The Fun DFS Play He Used to Be
Gerrit Cole

to Make Season Debut on Friday Against Rays
Drake Baldwin

Braves Place Drake Baldwin on Injured List With Oblique Strain
CFB

Ezavier Crowell has Immediate Opportunity at Alabama
CFB

Mark Bowman a Day 1 Impact Player for USC?
CFB

Bill Belichick Says Relationship with First North Carolina Team "Wasn't Great"
CFB

Kemario Taylor a Breakout Candidate at Quarterback
CFB

Trinidad Chambliss the Undisputed Top SEC Quarterback Entering 2026?
CFB

Rocco Becht The "Unifier" of Penn State's Roster
Jackson Holliday

Orioles Reinstate Jackson Holliday From Injured List on Monday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Braves Reinstate Ronald Acuna Jr. From Injured List on Monday
Jose Altuve

Astros Put Jose Altuve on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Corey Seager

Going on Injured List With Back Injury
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Reinstated and Starting on Monday Against Twins
Melquizael Costa

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 117
Arnold Allen

Bounces Back
Daniel Santos

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
MMA

Dohoo Choi Wins His Third Consecutive Fight
Malcolm Wellmaker

Suffers His Second Loss In A Row
Juan Diaz

Scores Second-Round Submission
Christian Edwards

Defeated At UFC Vegas 117
CFB

Transfer Running Back Arnold Barnes Visiting Iowa State on Monday
Modestas Bukauskas

Gets Split-Decision Win
Jhostynxon Garcia

Expected to Join the Pirates on Tuesday
Colt Emerson

Mariners Promoting Top Prospect Colt Emerson to Major Leagues
Munetaka Murakami

Fantastic First Season Continues With Two More Homers
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Dazzles With 13-Strikeout Complete Game on Saturday
Blake Snell

to Undergo Elbow Surgery on Tuesday
Clay Holmes

Could Miss Around Three Months
Jose Altuve

Exits After Swing
Corey Seager

Absent With Back Spasms on Saturday
Trevor Story

Hits the Injured List With Groin Injury
Blake Snell

Likely to Need Elbow Surgery
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF