X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Poetry in Motion: The Sweet Stroke of Xander Bogaerts

Jackie Bradley Jr. didn't even have the most significant hitting streak on his own team this season. Not hating, just stating. Xander Bogaerts saw his streak end at 26 games last night in Toronto, just short of Bradley's 29, but in reality Bogaerts is the far superior fantasy option in both the short and long term. During Bradley's impressive streak, he notched 44 hits, eight home runs, 30 RBI, 19 R and one steal. Over his past 29 games before Friday's 0-for-4 effort, Bogaerts recorded 46 hits, five home runs, 21 RBI, 24 R, and two steals. Pretty even overall from a fantasy standpoint, but looking back to April we can see that Bogaerts preceded his streak with two separate six-game streaks and an eight-game streak before that. Bradley was hitting a mere. 233 before going on his tear, but Bogaerts was already at .309. Not a big surprise for the 2015 Silver Slugger award winner.

Since the end of his streak, Bradley is down 20 points in AVG and will likely continue to crawl down just below .300, as he was a .294 career hitter in the minors. Remember, just two years ago Bradley only managed a .198 average over 384 at-bats. This made Bradley's streak more newsworthy because it came from an unexpected source. In comparison, Bogaerts' streak shouldn't have been unexpected. In 2014, while Bradley was struggling to stick with the big club, Bogaerts was rated the #2 overall prospect in the minors by multiple publications. He found Major League success pretty quickly, finishing second in the AL with a .320 AVG last season. So, what is the key to his success and can he really sustain his elite production?

Let's start with the obvious. His .401 BABIP is extremely high, but he sustained a .372 BABIP across 613 AB last season, so this isn't uncharacteristically high for him. Bogaerts has dropped his SwStr% each season against MLB pitching, down to 14.5% this season. He has also raised his BB% to 7.3%, up from last year's 4.9%. Basically, he is improving his eye and finding a way to put more balls in play.

Bogaerts lines high strike to center

He knows just where to put 'em (where they ain't).

What's slightly unusual is that Bogaerts is hitting more ground balls and yet increasing his average at the same time. Sabermetricians usually value line drives over ground balls, but Bogaerts has seen his LD% drop to 20% and his ground ball rate increase in 2016, his best season so far. His 1.15 GB/FB actually matches last season's ratio, but those grounders are turning into hits for Bogaerts more than expected. This may regulate itself over time, but it seems his selectivity at the plate and tendency to pull the ball without hitting an abundance of fly balls is resulting in quality hits.

Bogaerts grounder hit

This certainly could have gone for an easy out, but didn't. Sorry, I don't have a more clever explanation than that.

More specifically, Bogaerts is pulling pitches on the inside half of the plate at a much higher rate this year. On pitches down and in, he has a .256 AVG/P with a .410 SLG/P. A quick look at his spray chart shows that Bogaerts is pulling a majority of his ground balls, many of them for hits obviously. We often associate ground ball hitters with weak contact, but Bogaerts again is an exception.

Bogaerts lines double on low fastball

In terms of power, Bogaerts may never be a 20+ HR hitter and may not even come close to the mark. Of his six home runs, all have gone to left field even though his fly balls are evenly distributed across the field. It would seem that Bogaerts does not yet possess opposite field power to the point where that HR/FB rate will spike this year. His 11.8% HR/FB seems sustainable, although it is up from last year's rate of 5.3% and his career rate of 7.3%. At best, he will hit 15 HR which seems perfectly acceptable for fantasy purposes when you hit in the neighborhood of .350.

Bogaerts homers to left

Look, he's already leading the league in average. Asking him to hit more homers just seems greedy.

Pitchers who want to adjust to Bogaerts' tendencies will likely start attacking him down and away. On pitches on the lower outside corner of the strike zone, Bogaerts has a 67% Contact%. He isn't registering lower than 87% on any other region of the strike zone. That figure drops down to 63% when he is behind in the count. This isn't a common occurrence as Bogaerts' 16.2% K% is still fairly good.

Bogaerts strikes out

Oh Sonny Gray, where have you gone?

Xander Bogaerts is more than just a streaky hitter or the latest Boston player to catch fire. He has been known as a top prospect for a while, but has seemingly come under scrutinty for not showing more power or living up to unrealistic expectations. The truth is Bogaerts could lead the league in hitting this year and contend to do so for years to come. At the top of a loaded Red Sox lineup, his run scoring (44 - 3rd in MLB) and batting average (.343 - 3rd in MLB) are both elite. Bogaerts is a keeper in the truest sense and should be treated as a prized asset in all fantasy leagues.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez1 hour ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk1 hour ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Michael King2 hours ago

Fans 11 In Five Shutout Innings Tuesday
Christian Yelich2 hours ago

Hits First Homer Of Season, Steals Base Tuesday
Evan Engram2 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Anthony Bender2 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Robert Hassell III2 hours ago

Has Three-Hit Day At Triple-A
Thomas Harrington2 hours ago

Hit Hard In MLB Debut Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson2 hours ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer2 hours ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams3 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge3 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews3 hours ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones3 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin3 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice3 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep3 hours ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson3 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell3 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao3 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry3 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey4 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt4 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz4 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman5 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford5 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi5 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen5 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick5 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners5 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay6 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López6 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland6 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia6 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti6 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL6 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette6 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus6 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants7 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears7 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Sam Ehlinger7 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Guerschon Yabusele7 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns7 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals7 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Jevon Carter7 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry7 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips7 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith7 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball8 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter8 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey8 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton8 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale8 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant8 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal8 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II8 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons8 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young8 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser8 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo8 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud8 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart8 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba9 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga9 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry9 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown9 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault9 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere9 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn9 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro9 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions11 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans12 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders12 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear12 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins12 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL12 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä12 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway12 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys12 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal13 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy13 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris13 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk13 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth14 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp15 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim15 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood15 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau15 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole16 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith19 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment19 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka19 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov19 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov20 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes20 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF