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Poetry in Motion: The Sweet Stroke of Xander Bogaerts

Jackie Bradley Jr. didn't even have the most significant hitting streak on his own team this season. Not hating, just stating. Xander Bogaerts saw his streak end at 26 games last night in Toronto, just short of Bradley's 29, but in reality Bogaerts is the far superior fantasy option in both the short and long term. During Bradley's impressive streak, he notched 44 hits, eight home runs, 30 RBI, 19 R and one steal. Over his past 29 games before Friday's 0-for-4 effort, Bogaerts recorded 46 hits, five home runs, 21 RBI, 24 R, and two steals. Pretty even overall from a fantasy standpoint, but looking back to April we can see that Bogaerts preceded his streak with two separate six-game streaks and an eight-game streak before that. Bradley was hitting a mere. 233 before going on his tear, but Bogaerts was already at .309. Not a big surprise for the 2015 Silver Slugger award winner.

Since the end of his streak, Bradley is down 20 points in AVG and will likely continue to crawl down just below .300, as he was a .294 career hitter in the minors. Remember, just two years ago Bradley only managed a .198 average over 384 at-bats. This made Bradley's streak more newsworthy because it came from an unexpected source. In comparison, Bogaerts' streak shouldn't have been unexpected. In 2014, while Bradley was struggling to stick with the big club, Bogaerts was rated the #2 overall prospect in the minors by multiple publications. He found Major League success pretty quickly, finishing second in the AL with a .320 AVG last season. So, what is the key to his success and can he really sustain his elite production?

Let's start with the obvious. His .401 BABIP is extremely high, but he sustained a .372 BABIP across 613 AB last season, so this isn't uncharacteristically high for him. Bogaerts has dropped his SwStr% each season against MLB pitching, down to 14.5% this season. He has also raised his BB% to 7.3%, up from last year's 4.9%. Basically, he is improving his eye and finding a way to put more balls in play.

Bogaerts lines high strike to center

He knows just where to put 'em (where they ain't).

What's slightly unusual is that Bogaerts is hitting more ground balls and yet increasing his average at the same time. Sabermetricians usually value line drives over ground balls, but Bogaerts has seen his LD% drop to 20% and his ground ball rate increase in 2016, his best season so far. His 1.15 GB/FB actually matches last season's ratio, but those grounders are turning into hits for Bogaerts more than expected. This may regulate itself over time, but it seems his selectivity at the plate and tendency to pull the ball without hitting an abundance of fly balls is resulting in quality hits.

Bogaerts grounder hit

This certainly could have gone for an easy out, but didn't. Sorry, I don't have a more clever explanation than that.

More specifically, Bogaerts is pulling pitches on the inside half of the plate at a much higher rate this year. On pitches down and in, he has a .256 AVG/P with a .410 SLG/P. A quick look at his spray chart shows that Bogaerts is pulling a majority of his ground balls, many of them for hits obviously. We often associate ground ball hitters with weak contact, but Bogaerts again is an exception.

Bogaerts lines double on low fastball

In terms of power, Bogaerts may never be a 20+ HR hitter and may not even come close to the mark. Of his six home runs, all have gone to left field even though his fly balls are evenly distributed across the field. It would seem that Bogaerts does not yet possess opposite field power to the point where that HR/FB rate will spike this year. His 11.8% HR/FB seems sustainable, although it is up from last year's rate of 5.3% and his career rate of 7.3%. At best, he will hit 15 HR which seems perfectly acceptable for fantasy purposes when you hit in the neighborhood of .350.

Bogaerts homers to left

Look, he's already leading the league in average. Asking him to hit more homers just seems greedy.

Pitchers who want to adjust to Bogaerts' tendencies will likely start attacking him down and away. On pitches on the lower outside corner of the strike zone, Bogaerts has a 67% Contact%. He isn't registering lower than 87% on any other region of the strike zone. That figure drops down to 63% when he is behind in the count. This isn't a common occurrence as Bogaerts' 16.2% K% is still fairly good.

Bogaerts strikes out

Oh Sonny Gray, where have you gone?

Xander Bogaerts is more than just a streaky hitter or the latest Boston player to catch fire. He has been known as a top prospect for a while, but has seemingly come under scrutinty for not showing more power or living up to unrealistic expectations. The truth is Bogaerts could lead the league in hitting this year and contend to do so for years to come. At the top of a loaded Red Sox lineup, his run scoring (44 - 3rd in MLB) and batting average (.343 - 3rd in MLB) are both elite. Bogaerts is a keeper in the truest sense and should be treated as a prized asset in all fantasy leagues.

 

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Goga Bitadze

Questionable, Could Miss Second Straight Game
CFB

Michigan Targeting Kyle Whittingham as Next Head Coach
CFB

Texas Leading Rusher Quintrevion Wisner Set to Transfer
Tyler Herro

to Miss Sixth Straight Game Friday
Bam Adebayo

Dealing With Back Soreness Ahead of Hawks Game
VJ Edgecombe

Remains Questionable With Illness vs. Bulls
Herbert Jones

Ruled Out Again Friday vs. Suns
Jerami Grant

Remains Out Friday Against Clippers
Joel Embiid

Status in Question Ahead of Bulls Matchup
Cedric Coward

Questionable Friday Against Bucks
Jakob Poeltl

Still Out as Raptors Face Wizards
Grayson Allen

Ruled Out Friday Against Pelicans
Ja Morant

Could Miss Another Game With Ankle Sprain
Jalen Suggs

Not Expected to Face Charlotte
Jordan Walsh

Likely Returning on Friday
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Remains Out on Friday
Rui Hachimura

Back in Action on Christmas
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Cleared to Play on Christmas Night
George Kittle

Remains Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Malik Willis

Carrying Questionable Tag for Week 17 Tilt
Jordan Love

Questionable for Saturday's Contest
Lamar Jackson

Listed as Doubtful for Week 17
Amon-Ra St. Brown

to Suit Up on Christmas Day
Rome Odunze

"Increasing Unlikely to Play" in Week 17
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Carries Questionable Tag on Thursday
David Montgomery

Expected to Play on Christmas Day
Seth Curry

to Remain Sidelined on Christmas Day
Jae'Sean Tate

Questionable Thursday
Dwight Powell

Likely to Return on Christmas
Jaylin Williams

Misses Fifth Straight Game
Ousmane Dieng

Unavailable on Christmas Day
David Montgomery

Questionable to Play With Illness
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Questionable, Expected to Play on Thursday
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Place Rashee Rice on Injured Reserve
T.J. Hockenson

Ruled Out for Week 17
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Josh Johnson

to Start at QB on Thursday Against Dallas
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf
Davante Adams

Could Sit Out Final Two Regular-Season Games
Brock Bowers

Placed on Injured Reserve Due to Lingering Knee Injury
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Expected to Play on Christmas Day Against the Vikings
Connor McDavid

Finishes Battle of Alberta With Five Assists
Karel Vejmelka

Battling Upper-Body Injury
Alexandre Texier

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Against Bruins
Alexander Nikishin

Dealing With Apparent Ankle Injury
Denver Barkey

Exits Early Tuesday
Travis Sanheim

Pulled by Concussion Spotter Tuesday
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal
DK Metcalf

has Two-Game Suspension Upheld
Philip Rivers

to Remain the Starter in Week 17
George Kittle

Dealing With Mid-to-Low Ankle Sprain
Viktor Arvidsson

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Ryan Leonard

Available Tuesday
Tom Wilson

in Danger of Missing First Game of the Season
Phillip Danault

Makes Second Canadiens Debut Tuesday
Collin Graf

Available Against Golden Knights
Jack Eichel

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Vince Dunn

Won't Play Tuesday
Deshaun Watson

Will Not be Activated Off PUP List, 2025 Season is Over
J.J. McCarthy

Ruled Out for Week 17
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach
Timothy Liljegren

to Miss Second Straight Game Tuesday
Will Smith

Out Week-to-Week
Jaccob Slavin

Placed on Injured Reserve, Out Week-to-Week
Seth Jarvis

Considered Week-to-Week
Darren Raddysh

Totals Three Points in Monday's Win
Mason Marchment

Scores Twice Monday
Vince Dunn

Injured in Monday's Win
Ilya Sorokin

to Miss Tuesday's Game
CFB

Byrum Brown Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Bobby Petrino Joining Bill Belichick as North Carolina's Offensive Coordinator
Willson Contreras

Shipped to the Red Sox

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