July 26, 2017

Michael Swindells recommends players to target in points per reception (PPR) leagues, but fade in standard fantasy football formats for 2017.

PPR is one of the more intriguing fantasy formats, as it rewards players more for real-life value. While standard formats emphasize touchdowns, PPR rewards players who contribute a significant amount to their teams; however, they are hindered by their inability to find the end zone, or negatively impacted due to their role on a lower scoring offense. Although the format isn’t for everyone, it has undeniably grown in popularity as of late.

Individuals in deeper leagues may favor the PPR format, as it increases the value of players getting selected in later rounds. In addition, the predictability of the format allows more knowledgeable football fans to differentiate themselves from the more casual fans. On the other hand, others may lean towards the standard format due to the spontaneity of touchdowns, making the scoring system much more unpredictable and exciting.

In the article provided below, I will analyze players who have historically struggled in standard leagues, while flourishing in PPR formats. Additionally, I will also cover players who find themselves in a change of scenery, whether it is with a new team, or simply a significant role change in their offense.

PPR League Targets (Standard League Fades)

Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins

Entering the 2017 season as arguably one of the best slot receivers in the National Football League, Jarvis Landry has established himself as a PPR gem. Landry has proven continuously he can handle the main role in the Dolphins game plan. Finishing the 2016 season with 94 receptions and a whopping 71.8% catch rate, Landry is the epitome of what you search for in regards to a treasured PPR player. Due to his smaller stature, Landry relies on his elite playmaking capabilities to contribute to the Dolphins offense.

Ryan Tannehill averaged 3.2 passes over 20 yards per game this past season, ranking him 28^th among other quarterbacks. Not the most promising statistic at first glance, but one that caters to Landry’s playing style tremendously. Last year, Golden Tate was the lone receiver with more yards after catch than Jarvis Landry. Worth noting, Landry accomplished this feat with a 4.4% better catch rate, in an offense that had the second least passing attempts this past NFL season. Despite being on a run oriented football team, Landry will still see great volume as a result of his world-class receiving abilities.

The talent is undeniable, but the situation isn’t exactly ideal enough to make Landry a valuable standard format receiver. Tannehill relies on his receivers to utilize their YAC capabilities, finishing with 1574 air yards in 2016. While that is great for Landry’s volume, realistically he isn’t going to take 10 yard passes for 60+ yards consistently. These quarterback tendencies, as well as Ajayi’s emergence last season; all contribute to Landry being rather futile in standard formats.

Jeremy Maclin, Baltimore Ravens

Maclin finds himself in a much more volume driven role, joining an offense that had the 5^th most passing attempts of all time this past season. With 222 targets left unaccounted for, anticipate Maclin to receive a large workload as the Raven’s WR1. Baltimore intends to utilize Maclin in the slot, where historically he has played his most effective football. Dating back to 2012, Maclin has recorded 12 touchdowns from the slot, the fourth most among other receivers in that given time period. In addition, 60% of his touchdown receptions since 2012 have come from routes run out of the slot. However, Joe Flacco’s touchdown totals tend to be relatively underwhelming, considering the amount he throws.

As for now, Maclin is more favorable in PPR formats, attributable to promised volume as the primary receiver.  With injury concerns in the past, expect a smooth transition into the heavily relied-upon Ravens pass offense that could still see plenty of volume after Kenneth Dixon's season-ending injury. Maclin could provide consistent WR2 production in PPR leagues as a result.

Golden Tate, Detroit Lions

Golden Tate exceeded 90 receptions for the third consecutive season with the Detroit Lions, surpassing 1,000 yards for the second time in three seasons. Tate accomplished this while also leading the NFL in yards after catch with 676 yards, approximately 5 yards per target. Tate’s evasiveness and top-notch YAC ability fits hand in hand with Jim Bob Cooter’s offensive game plan of getting the football out quick.

While a screen, slant, or quick hitch may not produce the statistics you’re searching for in a standard league, it definitely carries value in PPR leagues. Historically, Tate has struggled to reach the end zone on a consistent basis. While the departure of Anquan Boldin definitely opens up and extra red zone opportunity here and there, Eric Ebron will likely be the most impacted beneficiary. Essentially a poor man’s Jarvis Landry, owners should still be content having Tate as a WR2 in PPR formats, although the lack of touchdowns will surely be frustrating.

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Zach Ertz was undeniably Carson Wentz’s favourite target this past season, achieving a career best in receptions with a steady 73.6% catch rate. Given his current ADP, Ertz has the opportunity to provide great fantasy production at an affordable price. After an injury plagued first half of the season, Ertz came back strong as the most targeted tight end in the second half; ranking first among other tight ends, with 5.57 receptions per game, and finishing third in targets per game with 7.57. Ertz is statistically a top 10 PPR tight end when healthy, with massive upside.

Unfortunately, Ertz is less valuable in standard leagues by a sizable amount. His longest reception last year was a measly 30 yards, and his touchdown total ranked 14^th in the league in comparison to other tight ends in the NFL. The acquisitions of Torrey Smith and Alshon Jeffrey will surely cause Ertz’s impressive 30.5% target premium to regress. Although the showing from Ertz in the second half of last season is enough evidence to keep fantasy owners intrigued. Assuming Ertz is able to stay healthy, the sky is the limit for his potential output in a full season.

Quincy Enunwa, New York Jets

Enunwa proved he was capable of producing in the abysmal Jets offense last year, leading the team in receptions and touchdown scores, as the WR3 behind Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. Following a change of scenery this offseason, Enunwa is now the solidified WR1. The increase of volume is definitely inevitable, and extremely intriguing.

After finishing 28^th in points against, the Jets addressed their defensive struggles majorly at the NFL draft. Although the acquisitions are promising, it’s difficult to see the moves completely turning around their defense in the span of a year. The Jets will be playing from behind frequently, and will depend on Enunwa greatly as the central point of their offense.  Unfortunately, the poor quarterback situation in New York will most likely hurt scoring opportunities, making Enunwa less appealing in standard formats.

Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers

Pierre Garcon reunites with former Redskins Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan, on a San Francisco team in dire need of a reliable receiving threat. In 2013, Garcon achieved career highs in receptions, yards, and targets with Shanahan. Feats Garcon will be looking to match as the solidified top receiving target with minimal competition. Historically, Garcon has struggled mightily in the red zone, finishing with a disappointing 35.7% catch rate with the Redskins last year. The inept quarterback situation will likely limit touchdown receptions for Garcon; but defensive liabilities will result in the Niners playing from behind more often than not, allowing Garcon to feast in PPR leagues.

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis