Players With Misleading Numbers Worth Reconsidering in 2021

August 6, 2021

Antonio Losada highlights three players with misleading stats in 2020 worth reconsidering in 2021 fantasy football drafts as great value at their ADP.

When it comes down to facing a fantasy draft, two numbers are often the most sought after by fantasy GMs: current ADP and overall rank from the prior season. No matter how experienced fantasy players are, those two numbers are thought of as the ultimate all-encompassing representations of every football player's value. Knowing what he did in the league the last year and where he is getting drafted this season should be more than enough to make a reasonably good projection going forward, isn't it?

Turns out, those two numbers can be way misleading. Today, I'm here to focus on last season's overall rank of players, that is, where they ranked among peers in 2020. The fact that someone finished the year as a second-tier (RB13 to RB24) running back in total points doesn't mean he wasn't better than players at the first tier in the position. What if that player missed some games, getting fewer chances to rack up points? What if he had played a full 16-game schedule? Questions, questions, questions...

Up next, I will point out some players that experienced this in 2020 and how to assess their fantasy upside for 2021, this time for the good (worth drafting now even if they looked bad!). Let's get to it!

Players Worth Drafting

QB Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos

I'm writing this in the second third of the month of July, and at this point, there is still nothing clear about who will start the year in Denver's pocket--Teddy B or Aaron Rodgers. Now seriously, Drew Lock should make a push for that QB1 role, but I have to assume it's Teddy who starts the year in the pocket given his past and higher floor/ceiling, at least to my eyes.

Bridgewater is already a six-year veteran with three seasons playing the QB1 role throughout his career, the last one taking place last year in Carolina. Even without the Panthers' best playmaker around for most of the season (no matter he's an RB, folks), Teddy did enough to finish as the QB18 in fantasy leagues and 41st-best player overall in the PPR format thanks to his 241.2 total FP and 16.1 FPPG. Now in Denver, Bridgewater will have a similar set of tools to the one he had to work with last season.

The Broncos are welcoming Courtland Sutton back after he could only play a few snaps in 2020. Remember, Sutton's first fully-played season ended with him ranking WR19 in 2019. Add TE Noah Fant (entering his third season), the pairing of Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams at the RB position, and a few other capable receivers still improving, and Bridgewater's 2020 numbers look highly replicable--at the very least. If he ends up starting all games, PFF would project him to a top-end QB2 finish with upside for more if he can air it out a bit more than he did last season.

RB Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

A lot of folks are saying Mike Davis will regress a lot in Atlanta because he's now a true RB1 compared to last season's RB2-stepping-up he was forced to play given Christian McCaffrey injury woes. Bullcrap. Mike played to RB1 levels in 2020, whether he was backing up CMC or not, and he is now in that same role--only without a single man projecting to become a threat to eat from his chances in the Falcons' backfield.

Davis can definitely do it by himself out there on a football field, my men, so you better start drafting him this very day before fantasy GMs realize this and his ADP skyrockets as we get closer to Week 1. Davis' ups and downs last season were absolutely tied to CMC's presence on the field. Isn't that reasonable? Flip the roles/opportunities/touches, and that'd have happened to McCaffrey--or any player in that situation, for that matter.

Another important thing to consider here is how the Falcons aren't exactly on a surplus of talent when it comes to their offense. Sure, there are a couple of good/great WRs out there, and they just brought the most hyped TE to town, but Davis will prove critical for Atlanta's chances at one last postseason berth under Matt Ryan.

Don't be fooled by the narrative. Davis had to wait six years to finally breakthrough, but the minute he was given the chance, he took it and ran with it (no pun intended), finishing RB12 in PPR leagues last season. And I see no reason he can't put up such numbers once more come 2021.

WR Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills

Beasley has forced his name into head coaches' plans throughout his whole career, making it appear more and more times in play calls on a yearly basis. As ridiculous as it sounds, Beasley never got to log 100+ opportunities while playing for the Cowboys (seven seasons), topping at 99 and catching as many as 76 passes in a single season once (that very same year, in 2016). He went from being targeted 24 times as a rookie to 54, 49, 75, 98, 63, and finally 87 before he moved to Buffalo.

Once he became a Bill, though, things changed for good for him. It's been two seasons in Buffalo, and he's logged 106 and 107 targets while catching a career-high six touchdowns in 2019 and four touchdowns last season. He had an even more impressive career mark last year: a 76.5% Catch Rate and an even better 81.2% Contested Catch Rate that led the league by a mile (the second-highest mark was already at 72.7%).

There is nothing stopping Beasley from repeating such performance over the full 2021 season. Josh Allen is trusting him as he trusts anybody. Beasley is a pure Slot receiver (84% of his routes came from that spot), his aDOT (7.9) is so low that he's turned into Allen's safety valve, and he surely knows how to create from nothing with 3.3 YAC/Target to rank inside the 72nd percentile in 2020 (min. 500 snaps).

Beasley might not go another 1-for-1, 20 yards, one passing touchdown line as a QB in 2021. But you can safely draft Cole Beasley at a discount (as has always been the case), and then proceed to reap the rewards of such a steal at the wideout position.

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