March 30, 2025
Denny Hamlin is one of the greats at Martinsville with five career wins and 2,448 laps led, but his last win here came a decade ago in this race. Nonetheless, even though he hasn't won since, he's been no slouch with ten top fives and 1,136 laps led since his last win. It's a rare race at Martinsville where he doesn't lead and his fifth-place starting position is his second-best at Martinsville with the Next Gen chassis, so he'll probably lead in this one. However, he certainly doesn't yet seem to have the killer speed with Chris Gayle that he had with Chris Gabehart and Gayle's record has been pretty dreadful with no top tens and 0 laps led in 12 starts with Erik Jones and Ty Gibbs, so it seems unlikely that Hamlin will have the setup to win. Since he is likely to perform worse than his expectation and his $10,700 DFS salary for this reason, he is probably overvalued.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 30, 2025
Austin Cindric qualified 20th for Sunday's Martinsville race. Although he seems to be starting to become something of a weekly threat, Martinsville will probably be an exception to that. He did actually finish fourth in last fall's race, but unlike his No. 2 car predecessors Rusty Wallace, Kurt Busch, and Brad Keselowski, short tracks have hardly been his best discipline. That race was his only top-five finish on a short track, although his other top-10 showing also came here in 2023. It's certainly possible that his uptick in speed that we have seen elsewhere will show up here, but his current statistical record at the track suggests it probably won't, therefore he isn't likely one of the best DFS options.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 30, 2025
It took Kyle Busch seemingly forever to finally win his two Martinsville races in 2016 and 2017, but although he managed a remarkable eight straight top-five finishes (including those wins), he hasn't been so hot lately, especially with the Next Gen chassis. In the last 12 races, Busch has only led five laps at Martinsville, with those coming in the 2020 fall race where Kevin Harvick's spinout of him backfired. In the last five races, he has finished 16th or worse, and he hasn't even had any speed -- even his average running positions have never been better than 16th. Busch seems to have recovered from last year, so one can expect some level of regression to the mean, but Austin Dillon's Richmond robbery aside, Richard Childress Racing hasn't seemed to have enough speed on short tracks to contend, and Busch is only starting 12th. He probably won't contend, but don't be shocked if he does.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March
30,
2025
Brad
Keselowski
sits
30th
in
points
and
right
now
stands
as
2025's
biggest
disappointment,
as
he
has
no
top-10
finishes
and
two
crashes
and
he
hasn't
even
seriously
contended
anywhere
with
a
best
average
running
position
this
year
of
20th
in
read more...
March 30, 2025
Noah Gragson qualified 24th at Martinsville. Although he lost positions in both of his first two starts here, he finished better than he qualified in both 2024 races, especially last year's fall race when he drove from 25th to 11th and unexpectedly beat all the other Stewart-Haas Racing cars. However, now he is driving for Front Row Motorsports, which probably is not as fast on short tracks. Gragson and his teammates all qualified pretty close with Zane Smith starting 19th and Todd Gilliland 25th. They'll probably all run rather similarly, but even though Gragson has won here in the Xfinity Series, it seems likely he will run worst of the trio because Smith outqualified and Gilliland has pretty consistently run in the top twenty while the others haven't.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 30, 2025
Martinville is one of Michael McDowell's worst tracks, as he has never finished better than 14th, posted an average running position better than 18th, or led a lap at the paper clip. But now he has left his long-term home at Front Row Motorsports to switch to Spire Motorsports, where he qualified 15th and did significantly outqualify his teammates Carson Hocevar and Justin Haley, who only qualified 29th and 30th, respectively. Then again, at this stage of his career, he's tending to be faster in qualifying than in the race, so it's hard to imagine him picking up many positions at all. In all likelihood, he will backslide since he usually finishes outside the top 20 here, and even in the Las Vegas race where he won the pole, he fell through the pack quickly. Both McDowell's teammates likely have more value for DFS lineups.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 30, 2025
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. qualified 34th at Martinsville, worst of all the established veterans in competitive cars. However, this isn't particularly a good track for him, as he has never led a lap and has only earned three top-10 finishes with an average finish of 24.1 despite only crashing once here. He did earn his best finish here in the 2023 spring race when he finished eighth, but his speed declined significantly in the second half of 2023 and never completely recovered, and his average running position even in that race was only 17th. From where he's starting, he'll probably gain a fair bit of place-differential points, but he won't even sniff the lead, so he won't score nearly enough lap-leader or fastest-lap points to be viable for DFS.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 30, 2025
Erik Jones has never been particularly good at Martinsville, as he has never led a lap and has only earned one top-10 finish in the 2021 fall race. Even in his years with Furniture Row Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing, his best finish was a mere 12th twice, and the only thing anyone remembers about him at Martinsville was when he was ordered not to pass Denny Hamlin in 2020 as a lame-duck JGR driver. Now he is with Legacy Motor Club, a Toyota team that has far less speed on short tracks than JGR did, so it's hard to imagine him contending here, especially since his 31st-place starting position is actually the worst of his career here. He was also far off his teammate John Hunter Nemechek, who hasn't been great here, either. This looks like it will be another slow race for Legacy in general, and Jones probably won't gain enough positions for DFS consideration.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 30, 2025
John Hunter Nemechek earned his best starting position at Martinsville by qualifying 16th on Saturday, but although he definitely looks a little better this year than last year, his Martinsville Cup Series performances have not been inspiring as his finishes and average running positions were actually worse last year for Legacy Motor Club than they were for Front Row Motorsports in his rookie season. He did earn a dominant win in the Xfinity Series here in 2023, but that came for a Joe Gibbs Racing team that has won with all kinds of Cup Series underachievers. He did significantly outqualify his teammate Erik Jones, but the Legacy Motor Club cars rarely look fast on short tracks. Nemechek will likely outrun Jones, but based on how they currently run of late, it's hard to imagine Nemechek not losing positions in the race.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 30, 2025
Riley Herbst qualified 35th at Martinsville, matching his car number in a race where his two 23XI Racing teammates Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick both qualified in the top 10. Herbst has never started a NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville before, but he was fairly consistent in the Xfinity Series despite hardly ever leading with five top-10 finishes, including back-to-back top-fives in the fall 2022 and 2023 races. He's not going to be any sort of serious contender by any means due to his inexperience with the Next Gen chassis and his own history as a fairly slow learner, but he'll probably gain positions throughout the race. It's unlikely he'll gain enough positions to score enough place-differential points to make him valuable for DraftKings fantasy lineups, though.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 30, 2025
Cody Ware qualified 36th at Martinsville on Saturday, beating only Casey Mears, who is returning after a long absence, and Burt Myers, who is making his debut. He has gained a few positions in all his previous Martinsville starts except for the 2019 spring race, when he had a brake failure. But Rick Ware Racing still doesn't have enough speed to contend here, even with a better driver, and it doesn't help that Ware's car is the only RWR car entered in the race in a series where single-car teams continue to have a disadvantage. Ware probably won't gain enough positions to be worthy of consideration for DFS lineups.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 30, 2025
Burt Myers makes his debut in Sunday's Martinsville race for Team AmeriVet. Myers, the grandson of Billy Myers, a two-time Cup Series winner, has been one of the most prolific modified drivers in the South in the 21st century, winning 10 track championships at Bowman Gray Stadium and numerous modified titles -- most notably the 2010 and 2016 NASCAR Whelen Southern Modified Tour titles before that series merged into the Northern Modified Tour in 2017. He also won that series' predecessor series, the SMART Tour in 2002, and won it twice more in 2021 and 2023 after it was revived without NASCAR sanction. Having said that, with his lack of experience in the Cup Series and Team AmeriVet being probably the slowest team in the series, it should come as no surprise that Myers qualified last. Don't expect him to do much more in the race.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 30, 2025
Look for Bubba Wallace to contend for a good finish at Martinsville Speedway this weekend. Over the six races here in the Next Gen era, Bubba hasn't finished worse than 18th, and in four of the last five, he has ended up 11th or better. In the spring race last season, Wallace qualified on the outside pole and finished fourth when the race was all said and done. This weekend, the No. 23 Toyota was fast off the truck, as Bubba put down the fastest single lap in practice on Saturday and ended up qualifying eighth for Sunday's Cook Out 400. At just $7,200 on DraftKings, Bubba is under-priced at one of his best race tracks on the circuit. It's a little risky with his high starting position, but the No. 23 Toyota should contend for a strong, top-10 finish this weekend.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: ifantasyrace
March 30, 2025
Last week's Homestead winner, Kyle Larson, will start Sunday's Cook Out 400 from the fourth position. Larson is one of the three Hendrick drivers to earn a top-5 starting position for this week's race through qualifying. In 20 races at Martinsville, Larson has one win and eight top-10 finishes. The No. 5 Chevrolet driver also placed sixth or better in each of the last five races at the site. Through six races so far this season, Larson has one win, four top-10 finishes, and an average finish of 11.3. In practice, Larson ranked 21st in overall lap averages while ranking as high as 13th in 15 consecutive lap averages. Despite his practice speeds, Larson's track record at Martinsville in recent years still makes him a driver who should not be underestimated. Larson is still one of the top favorites to win based on his equipment and 2025 performance.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 30, 2025
William Byron of Hendrick Motorsports will start 10th for this week's Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway. Byron is the only one of the four Hendrick drivers to start outside the top five for Sunday's race. In 14 races at Martinsville, Byron has two wins, which were scored within the last three Spring Martinsville races. He also has eight top-10 finishes and an average finish of 13.3. After six races completed so far this year, Byron has one win, four top-10 finishes, and leads the regular season standings while having the best average finish of 8.7. In practice, Byron ranked 16th in overall lap averages while displaying top-10 speeds in the 10,15, and 20 consecutive lap average categories. Based on his equipment, practice speeds, and recent Martinsville history, it will not be a shock to see Byron maintain a top-10 finish by the end of Sunday's race.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
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