April 13, 2025
Carson Hocevar of Spire Motorsports will start ninth for Sunday's Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. Hocevar is the top qualifier of the three Spire entries in this week's Cup race at Bristol. In three Cup starts at the site, Hocevar has two top-20 finishes, a best finish of 11th, and scored positive place differential twice. After eight races so far in the 2025 season, Hocevar has three top-20 finishes, with only one inside the top 10. In practice, Hocevar ranked eighth in overall lap averages and displayed top-10 speeds in the five and 10 consecutive lap average categories. Due to his low upside, it is difficult to recommend Hocevar for any lineup outside of tournament lineups, especially when his overall 2025 performance so far has been lackluster.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April 13, 2025
A.J. Allmendinger of Kaulig Racing will start eighth for this week's Cup race at Bristol Motor Speedway, the Food City 500. This marks the first top-10 starting position at the site for the driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet since 2016. In 25 Bristol starts, Allmendinger has 10 top-20 finishes, with only two top-10s. Through eight races so far this season, Allmendinger has four top-20 finishes, including three of the last four Cup events. In practice, Allmendinger ranked 22nd in overall lap averages. Although Allmendinger's recent performance in 2025 has been solid, Allmendinger's practice speeds and overall Bristol history point to him not being one of the top value options available. It is recommended to fade Allmendinger in all lineups outside of tournaments.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April 13, 2025
RFK Racing driver Ryan Preece will start 29th for this week's Cup Series race at Bristol Motor Speedway, the Food City 500. Preece's starting position for this week's race is his second-lowest of the entire 2025 season so far. In nine races at Bristol in his Cup career, Preece has eight top-20 finishes, but the No. 60 Ford driver has earned positive place differential in all of his Cup appearances so far. In the first eight races this season, Preece has five top-20 finishes and an average finish of 17.9. In practice, Preece ranked 37th in overall lap averages and 34th in 10 consecutive lap averages. Despite his slow practice speeds, Preece is a great driver to consider for all formats in DFS this week based on his upside and his Bristol history of obtaining positive PD.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April 13, 2025
Austin Dillon of Richard Childress Racing will start 17th for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. This will be the best starting position of Dillon's Cup career at the Tennessee short track since 2022. In 19 starts at Bristol, Dillon has 12 top-20 finishes and an average finish of 18.2. The No. 3 Chevrolet driver also scored positive place differential in four of his last five appearances at Bristol. With eight races completed so far this season, Dillon has four top-20 finishes and nabbed positive or neutral PD four times. In practice, Dillon ranked ninth in overall lap averages while displaying top-20 speeds in all other categories. Although he does not offer as much upside as others in the value tier, Dillon is still one of the better overall options to consider as he will compete for a top-15 finish based on equipment and practice speeds.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April 13, 2025
Front Row Motorsports driver Noah Gragson will start 31st for this week's Cup race at Bristol Motor Speedway, the Food City 500. Gragson's starting position will be the lowest in his Cup career at the Tennessee short track. In two previous Cup starts at Bristol, Gragson's best finish is 12th. In the Xfinity Series at the site, Gragson is a two-time winner with four top-10 finishes in six starts. After eight races so far this season, Gragson has three top-20 finishes and four finishes with positive place differentials earned. In practice, Gragson ranked 10th in overall lap averages and almost ranked among the top 10 fastest in all other eligible categories. Based on his very high upside, equipment, and practice speeds, Gragson is a playable driver worth consideration for all formats this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April 13, 2025
Cup Series rookie Riley Herbst will start 25th for Sunday's Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway after qualifying. This will be the first ever Cup start for Herbst at Bristol. In six previous races at the site in the Xfinity Series, Herbst has four top-10 finishes and gained positive place differential five times. Through eight races so far in the 2025 Cup Series season, Herbst has four top-20 finishes while collecting positive PD five times. In practice, Herbst ranked 12th in overall lap averages while displaying top-10 speeds in almost all other categories. Despite being a rookie, Herbst is worth consideration for all types of DFS lineups due to his equipment and upside based on his starting position in the back half of the field.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April 13, 2025
Cole Custer of Haas Factory Team will start 33rd for this week's race at Bristol Motor Speedway, the Food City 500. This will be the lowest starting position of Custer's Cup career at Bristol. In four previous starts at the Tennessee short track, Custer's best finish was eighth, his only top-10 finish at the site back in 2022. Custer has yet to score a top-20 finish this season but did earn positive place differential four times through the first eight races. In practice, Custer ranked 25th in overall lap averages and fourth in 10 consecutive lap averages. Considering his equipment and season-wide performance, Custer may not bring top results. Still, he is one of the more playable DFS options available, primarily due to his low salary of $5,900 on DraftKings combined with his incredible upside.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
April
13,
2025
Ty
Gibbs
has
arguably
been
2025's
biggest
disappointment
because
normally
young
drivers
on
top
teams
are
supposed
to
rapidly
progress
while
Gibbs
has
been
significantly
slower
in
2025
since
losing
his
old
crew
chief
Chris
Gayle
to
Denny
Hamlin's
No.
11.
read more...
April 13, 2025
Joey Logano has had a pretty baffling season as he ranks third in laps led this year and ninth in points despite only posting a single top-10 finish. He's had numerous unforced errors that usually resulted in finishes just outside the top 10, and he made another one on Saturday in Bristol qualifying, where he hit the wall and had a half-spin that resulted in a 38th-place starting position, his worst since 2017. Whenever a champion with speed qualifies that poorly, you almost have to jump on that for DFS place-differential points, but despite winning two races at Bristol, Logano has also failed to finish in the top 10 in his last eight Bristol starts and has finished worse than his starting position in each one, which is similar to his trend this season. In a race where other typical contenders like William Byron, Chris Buescher, Chase Elliott, and Ross Chastain qualified poorly, some of them may be better place-differential options.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 13, 2025
Unlike his contemporary Kyle Busch whose speed at Bristol markedly declined after he switched from Joe Gibbs Racing to Richard Childress Racing, Brad Keselowski has retained a lot of his speed there even after switching from Team Penske to RFK Racing. The three-time Bristol winner led 109 laps in the 2022 Bristol Night Race, the first with the Next Gen chassis and he probably would have won had he not blown a tire, then added an eighth and a third in his next two starts but was surprisingly lackluster last time, which eliminated him from the playoffs. The main issue is that Keselowski (who starts 16th today) has run terribly all season since replacing crew chief Matt McCall with Jeremy Bullins; he hasn't had an average running position better than 20th yet. On paper, Keselowski seems like one of the best options for DFS especially at $7,800, but his poor season performance suggests he likely won't have any speed.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 13, 2025
Although Chase Briscoe qualified 14th at Bristol, which doesn't sound terrible when you compare it to how the 23XI Racing Toyotas qualified, he was by far the slowest of the four Joe Gibbs Racing cars as his three teammates all qualified in the top seven. Briscoe is an agent of chaos who seems almost impossible to predict as this ties his worst qualifying run with this car even though he's now driving a JGR car that should by all rights be faster than the Stewart-Haas Racing cars he was driving before where he qualified 6th or better three times. Having said that, Briscoe has never led a lap at Bristol and finished worse than he started in all four races with the Next Gen chassis, so he likely is overvalued and his $9,000 cost on DFS seems to reflect the historical speed of the No. 19 car more than Briscoe's ability. All the other JGR drivers are likely better bets.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 13, 2025
Despite spinning out on his second qualifying lap on Saturday, Kyle Busch qualified 15th at Bristol. He is one of the track's all-time greats with eight wins and 2,598 laps led, but he has fallen on hard times since his arrival at Richard Childress Racing. Although Busch still frequently has speed on superspeedways and road courses at RCR, the team has generally been very lacking in short-track speed -- with Austin Dillon's grotesque win at Richmond serving as a rare exception. In his last five starts, Busch has only led five laps with a best finish of 20th, and he hasn't even run well, as his best average running position with this car is 19th. One would have to except Busch will figure out Bristol setups at some point and have another good run again, but until it actually happens, it's likely too big of a gamble to make.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 13, 2025
Despite only ranking 21st in points, Austin Cindric has looked consistently faster in 2025 than any previous season, so it's certainly plausible that he could get an unexpectedly strong result. However, the former road-course specialist has now steadily turned into a superspeedway specialist, and short tracks are not typically his specialty. He also qualified 21st for Sunday's race, far behind Ryan Blaney but well ahead of his other teammate Joey Logano. Cindric's best Bristol finish came in last year's night race when he finished 13th, but while he seems likely to have a regression to the mean after an unlucky season to date and a 50-point penalty, this seems far more likely to occur on a superspeedway than on any short track where he still lacks speed. He will probably finish around where he starts, and therefore has little DFS value.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 13, 2025
Short tracks have typically been Michael McDowell's Achilles heel throughout his career but he does seem to have figured something out at Bristol recently with the Next Gen chassis. Although he has still never led a lap here, he started 4th and finished 6th in the 2023 Bristol Night Race and ran in the top ten consistently. In his other three starts with this car, he has finished 11th with three top 15 average running positions. Now this time, he has qualified 13th. Although his two Spire Motorsports teammates Carson Hocevar and Justin Haley both outqualified him and Hocevar will likely outrun him, based on his recent history McDowell seems more likely to maintain his position than Haley. However, he's starting too well to earn many Place Differential points and likely won't be fast enough to lead or collect fastest laps, so he has little DFS value.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
April 13, 2025
Justin Haley qualified 10th at Bristol alongside his teammate Carson Hocevar, marking his best starting position ever at the track. This shouldn't come as a huge surprise as his Spire Motorsports cars are probably the fastest he has ever had here and Hocevar and Haley's predecessor Corey LaJoie both qualified in the top ten at the Bristol Night Race as well. Haley has improved his position in all three previous Bristol races in which he did not crash, but it's hard to conceive of him not sliding backward from 10th as he very rarely seems to have top ten speed anywhere, even though he did get a top ten at Homestead. It could help that Haley has crew chief Rodney Childers now who won two Bristol races with Kevin Harvick and Childers did lead 25 laps with Josh Berry last year, but it's hard not to see Haley sliding back to mid-pack as usual.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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