3 months agoIn one of Toyota's least competitive races of the season, Ty Gibbs was their primary bright spot at Atlanta on Sunday. He vastly outran the other Toyota drivers and scored three of Toyota's six stage points. Gibbs first took the lead when he and Bubba Wallace stayed out of the pits during the caution for John Hunter Nemechek's crash, but both drivers needed to pit again on the following caution. Gibbs then made arguably the race's most brilliant charge from 18th back to the lead in a race where passing the front-row restarters was very difficult, but his inexperience showed at the end as he got shuffled back to 17th. He still outran the other Toyota drivers and posted the best average speed in the race, so his first win is likely inevitable. However, his playoff position is up in the air, as he currently sits on the playoff bubble.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoChase Elliott had a strong but somewhat anonymous run at Atlanta, spending most of the race in the back half of the top 10 on a day when all the Hendrick Motorsports cars were fast, but none of them seemed to have winning speed. Elliott had an extremely consistent run, finishing seventh in Stage 1, eighth in Stage 2, and eighth in the race, but he didn't really battle for the lead in a race where all three of his teammates did. Nonetheless, he did what he needed to do and dodged a major bullet by avoiding the crashes, giving him a 24-point lead over the playoff cut line before the next two races at Watkins Glen and Bristol, where he is typically very strong. While he doesn't seem to have championship speed this year, he shouldn't have to worry about advancing to the Round of 12.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoAlthough Austin Cindric came up short at Atlanta, he had probably his best ever NASCAR Cup Series run on a day that the three Team Penske teammates dominated in general. After finishing second to his teammate Ryan Blaney in the first stage, he outdueled Alex Bowman early in Stage 2 to take the lead, which he held for almost the entirety of the stage. His 92 laps led marked both his personal best in that statistic as well as the first time he led the most laps in a race. However, Cindric burned more fuel resulting in a longer pit stop on the Stage 2 caution, then stalled his car to add insult to injury. Although he only made it back to a tenth-place finish after that, he still scored the fourth-most points to place him 27 points above the cutline, making him likelier to advance than most people expected.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoHarrison Burton's Penske satellite operation at Wood Brothers did benefit somewhat from Penske's unbeatable speed on Sunday at Atlanta with a 16th-place average running position (one of Burton's best of the season), but admittedly he was nowhere near as fast as the three Team Penske drivers, who each won a stage and had three of the four best driver ratings. Considering Burton has still scored fewer overall points than any full-time driver, ignoring the playoff reset, he had virtually no chance of advancing out of the first round to begin with, but that was essentially cemented by his crash in the last-lap Big One. Burton ended up finishing 31st, as he was the only driver involved in that crash who was unable to restart his car to cross the finish line, which cost him a lot of points since he had been running 17th before the crash.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoChase Briscoe was always going to be a playoff longshot because he has below average speed this year and even his rookie teammate Josh Berry has generally been faster. Briscoe likely needed a lot of luck to advance in the playoffs, but he did not get that in yesterday's Atlanta race when Kyle Larson hit the outside wall hard and Briscoe struck his rear bumper as Larson slid down the track, taking both drivers out of the race. Although Briscoe ran pretty well before the crash and ran consistently in the top fifteen in a race his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates did not run well, he now sits last in the playoffs 21 points below the cutline and given his lack of speed in the regular season, he will almost certainly be a first-round exit in the playoffs.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoAlthough Ryan Blaney failed to win Sunday's Quaker State 400 at Atlanta, he ran well there as usual, earning a third-place finish. Blaney was the first driver to make a pass for the lead in the race, overtaking pole-sitter Michael McDowell on Lap 30 and leading the rest of Stage 1. Although he never led again after the pit stop on the Stage 1 caution, he finished second in Stage 2 as well, giving him a race-high 53 points and the lead in the playoff points standings. He suffered one scare when Chris Buescher broke loose and hit Blaney, who slid down the track and collected Martin Truex Jr. However, Blaney was fortunate to only have cosmetic damage in a wreck that ultimately took Buescher and Truex out of the race. His rally to third after the crash was impressive, indicating his championship defense is going quite swimmingly.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoZane Smith will start 34th in this week's race at Atlanta Motor Speedway, the Quaker State 400. This is a worse starting position compared to the February race at the site, where Smith started 29th. February was Smith's only previous race at AMS where he finished 35th after scoring a DNF due to running out of time on the Damaged Vehicle Policy to continue after a crash. Through 26 races completed this year, Smith has nine top-20 finishes, with five of them being scored in the last eight Cup races. At superspeedway events in 2024, Smith has two top-20 finishes and three finishes with positive Place Differential in four races at the track type. As Smith is one of the drivers that starts towards the back and has incredibly high upside, he is a solid option to consider for cap flexibility and easy to recommend for any lineup, especially with his decent results on superspeedways this season.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
3 months agoFor this week's Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Tyler Reddick will start the race from the 23rd position. This is Reddick's lowest starting position ever in the Cup Series at Atlanta since the track was reconfigured in 2022. In five previous races at the site, the No. 45 Toyota driver has one top-10 finish and two DNFs. With 26 races completed this year, Reddick has two wins, 18 top-10 finishes (most of all drivers), and an average finish of 11.2 (best of all drivers). At superspeedways this season, Reddick has been boom or bust with two DNFS, but also one victory at Talladega. Considering his high upside and quality equipment from 23XI Racing, Reddick is still worth taking a shot in all DFS formats this week despite his inconsistency at superspeedways.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
3 months agoKyle Larson will start this week's Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway from the sixth position. This will be the fourth time overall in his Cup career that Larson will start inside the Top 10 at Atlanta since the track was reconfigured in 2022. In the last five races at the site, Larson's best finish is 13th, but he also has four DNFs, including the February race, where he led 17 laps before wrecking. With 26 races completed this year, Larson has four wins, 13 top-10 finishes, and 1,088 laps led (most of all drivers). At superspeedways this season, Larson has largely struggled despite having speed, as he led in three of the four events at the track type, but he failed to score a single top-10 finish. Traditionally, superspeedways are Larson's worst track type, and he does not often have great finishes. With his high starting position, the No. 5 Chevrolet driver is too much of a risk at his salary to recommend for lineups this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
3 months agoAlthough Bubba Wallace narrowly missed the playoffs after Chase Briscoe's win in last week's Southern 500, drafting tracks tend to be his best track type. However, he tends to be better at Daytona and Talladega than at Atlanta, where he never earned a top ten finish until this year's winter race when he finished fifth. The Toyotas have consistently had mediocre speed in qualifying on drafting tracks this year, and this continued with Wallace qualifying 24th for today's race. He has finished fifth or sixth in all three races where he didn't crash, so he should as usual be expected to earn a top ten if he finishes. Now that he no longer has to points race since he missed the playoffs, he might take risks that he was unwilling to earlier in the season, but given his past history, he's probably more likely to win at Talladega.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoRicky Stenhouse, Jr. has been regarded as one of the leading drafting track specialists for many years now, and he did indeed earn a sixth-place finish in the winter race at Atlanta and a fourth at Talladega this year, but his speed decline that has persisted throughout the season has affected him at those tracks as well as he has only led three laps on those tracks this year, his least since 2015. He has crashed in every other race over the last eight races and a crash at Atlanta would continue that cycle, but he has finished the last three Atlanta races and his earlier finish this year was his best ever at the track. If he avoids crashing - which is a big if given his recent form - he has enough racecraft for a good finish, but probably not enough speed to win.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoRyan Preece has not had the speed of any of his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates this season, and that looks likely to continue in this afternoon's Atlanta race. While all three of his teammates have had bursts of speed on drafting tracks, Preece mostly hasn't since his JTG-Daugherty Racing days and his 21st place qualifying run is very poor when considering the Ford dominance in qualifying; the Rick Ware Racing cars were the only Fords that were slower. Preece has also failed to lead a lap all season and hasn't even really contended to as his best average running position was 15th. Although most of the Ford drivers have to be taken seriously considering the Fords seem to have the fastest cars on drafting tracks although they tend not to win, Preece is a Ford driver you can likely write off.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoMichael McDowell won his fifth pole of the season for this afternoon's Quaker State 400, tying Kyle Larson for the most this season. This marked his fourth consecutive pole on a drafting track, the longest such streak since Bill Elliott won six straight poles at Daytona and Talladega in 1985 and 1986. However, while qualifying on drafting tracks tends to reward the same drivers repeatedly, McDowell has not been very successful after winning the pole. Although he led more than 20 laps in all four of the previous races where he won the pole, his average finish of 23.5 has been disappointing. However, his crashes at Talladega and Daytona both came while leading late. If he doesn't crash, he's likely to contend as when he finished in the top ten in his last two starts. However, it's obviously difficult to predict who will crash.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoErik Jones used to be regarded for many years as one of the best superspeedway drivers, but this seems to have faded in recent years. Although he did lead often in drafting races in the first year with the Next Gen chassis in 2022, he has seldom contended at those tracks or anywhere else since Legacy Motor Club switched from Chevrolet to Toyota. He still tends to consistently earn top 20 finishes on superspeedways but rarely contends for top tens and he has not seemed to get his drafting mojo back since he was injured in a crash at Talladega. Although the Toyotas have been faster in drafting races than in qualifying, Jones is starting 33rd and the Legacy cars don't have the speed or resources of the Joe Gibbs Racing or 23XI Racing cars, so despite Jones's historical drafting prowess, it's hard to imagine him seriously contending.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
3 months agoAlthough Carson Hocevar had his first crash DNF since the Daytona 500 in last week's Southern 500, he has been surprisingly good at avoiding crashes despite his overaggressive style, which is the main reason he is beating Josh Berry for Rookie of the Year even though Berry has had more speed. He seems to be driving with a calculated style to run in the back and avoid crashes, as his three worst average running positions have all come on drafting tracks but he did manage to finish 17th at Talladega and 11th at Daytona despite running much worse. Expect him to attempt to repeat this strategy in today's race since he's starting 32nd. However, this strategy is less likely to be effective at Atlanta, which tends to have fewer crashes than Daytona even in drafting races. Hocevar will probably finish but likely won't factor for a top ten.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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