4 months agoDaniel Suarez enters Satuday's Bristol race in a pretty safe position to advance to the Round of 12 in the NASCAR playoffs, as he sits 36 points above the playoff cut line. However, he'll likely lose a lot of points after qualifying 35th at Bristol, which means he is very unlikely to earn stage points unless he makes a strategy play, particularly when you consider this isn't one of Suarez's best tracks. Despite his strong run at Richmond last August, he has rarely been good at Bristol, where he has only led five laps, has never finished better than eighth, and has never posted an average running position in the top 10. He tends to consistently run in the middle of the pack, but he has also finished every single race. As long as he finishes (which history indicates is likely) he should be safe to advance, but it'll likely get a little tight at times.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 months agoIn his Roush Fenway Racing days, Bristol was one of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s best tracks, with six top-10 finishes in a nine-race span, including two second-place finishes, even though he never led there. But he has only had mid-pack speed since his arrival at JTG-Daugherty Racing and his average running positions were mediocre, too, not to mention that he crashed out of three of six races. He seems to have been both slower and more crash-prone for JTG than for Roush, and he has been both slower and crash-prone than usual, even by his typical standards this year. His seven crash DNFs are tied for the most he's had in a season, and a whopping five of those have happened within the last 10 races. When considering he is also starting 31st and having his slowest season since 2014, he's extremely unlikely to deliver a good result.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 months agoBecause Joey Logano won the Atlanta race that opened the playoffs and Chris Buescher won at Watkins Glen despite missing the playoffs, Logano is the only driver locked into the Round of 12, which is a good thing for him because he has not been very strong at Bristol lately. Since the 2019 spring event, he has never scored a top ten finish there and only led seven laps. Couple that with a 20th-place starting position and it seems unlikely he'll contend, particularly because Logano's team has frequently tended to focus on the next round of the playoffs after winning to advance, which often means they tend to ignore races in the current round after they lock themselves into the next round. Don't expect much from Logano tonight as a result.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 months agoEven though Daniel Hemric has been the second-slowest full-time driver in the NASCAR Cup Series this year ahead of only Harrison Burton, he has been good at finishing races, so he is still ahead of three drivers in points that have been faster, and he does have a knack for usually finishing better than he runs. Hemric qualified substantially better than usual for Saturday evening's race with a 21st-place starting position, his best on a non-drafting oval since Dover 18 races ago. Considering that he usually finishes better than he starts (even in the races this season when he has qualified well), he might earn a finish in the teens, although considering his lack of speed, a top-10 result would still be a stretch unless the race is really wacky like the March race was.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 months agoKaz Grala has only made one Bristol start in the NASCAR Cup Series in this year's March race, where he finished 19th, but it's hard to draw any conclusions from that race since it was unlike any short track race in NASCAR history. It seems unlikely that this evening's race will be similar to the March race, so Grala will more likely run like he does in a more typical non-drafting oval race, especially after qualifying 36th. Grala has done a good job at crash avoidance this year so he'll probably finish a little better, but expect a finish between 25th and 35th.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 months agoAlthough Noah Gragson has won twice at Bristol in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, he finished a mere 34th in his NASCAR Cup Series debut there and didn't run much better with an average running position of 30th. Even though the Stewart-Haas Racing cars have tended to have more speed on short tracks than elsewhere, he was far behind all his teammates, who finished 12th through 14th in that race. Gragson looks poised to have a little more speed in Saturday's event after qualifying 16th, but it stands to reason that SHR will be entirely focused on Chase Briscoe this evening since he is their only driver in the playoffs and he is sitting just inside the playoff bubble. Gragson should run better now that he is seeing the track for a second time, but don't expect him to seriously contend.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 months agoDespite the fact Austin Dillon earned a dubious win at Richmond in August, don't expect a repeat performance at Bristol on Saturday evening, as apart from Dillon's Richmond win, the Richard Childress Racing cars have tended to be very slow on short tracks, and he qualified a miserable 30th, his second-worst starting position at the track after qualifying 31st in March's race. Dillon has never led a lap at the track, even in the years when he was running better, and he has only scored three top-10 finishes and no finishes better than 17th with this car. When considering all of these factors, the probability of Dillon having a good run seems extremely remote.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 months agoAlthough Austin Cindric's last-lap crash across the finish line with A.J. Allmendinger in the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Bristol was one of his most memorable moments, he has seldom contended there at the NASCAR Cup Series level. He has never finished better than five laps down or posted an average running position better than 27th, which is also where he qualified for this race. Since he tends to run poorly even when he qualifies well, even a top twenty seems unlikely but despite that, he is still probably safe to advance to the Round of 12 because he sits 43 points above the playoff cutline. Although he will almost certainly give up points to most of the other playoff drivers currently behind him in points, he probably won't give up enough to fall below the cutline.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 months agoOn Friday, it was announced that Harrison Burton would be driving for AM Racing in the NASCAR Xfinity Series in 2025, so now Burton is officially a lame-duck driver in the NASCAR Cup Series, and it seems unlikely he will race there full time again. Given his lame-duck status and given the fact that his plans for next year are announced, it seems like neither driver nor team really has an incentive to elevate themselves and prove their mettle, so there's little reason to expect Burton to push himself beyond his current performance in an attempt to prove himself for other teams. As a result, his 34th-place starting position, which is his career-worst at Bristol, makes sense. Since Burton has never finished better than 16th and three laps down, it's hard to envision him contending.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 months agoAlthough it initially looked like Chase Briscoe's crash at Atlanta would take him out of contention for making the Round of 12, he unexpectedly got a better finish than any of the other playoff contenders at Watkins Glen while also tying for the most points in that race, which placed him tied for 11th with Ty Gibbs with both drivers six points above the playoff bubble. Despite his team's lack of speed, Briscoe's chances of advancing look pretty good after he qualified fifth and he is greatly aided by the fact that Stewart-Haas Racing got no other cars into the playoffs, which means they can entirely focus on his entry. While Briscoe advancing to the Round of 12 is by no means a guarantee, after his qualifying run, it looks more likely than not.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 months agoIt's not something that is very common in NASCAR, but a trade has been agreed on between Spire Motorsports and Rick Ware Racing. Starting next weekend with the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway, Corey Lajoie and Justin Haley will swap rides, as Lajoie will head to RWR to pilot the No. 51 Ford while Haley will jump over to Spire and get behind the wheel of the No. 7 Chevrolet. It has not yet been confirmed whether or not Lajoie will race for the organization beyond the end of the 2024 season. In 28 starts this year, Lajoie has tied a career-high with three top-10 finishes and has an average result of 22.6. He currently sits 28th in the points standings with eight races to go in the season.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Jayski
4 months agoJustin Haley will be back at Spire Motorsports starting with next weekend's Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. The two have agreed to a multi-year contract and Haley will drive the No. 7 Chevrolet for the foreseeable future. From 2019 through 2021, Haley made 35 Cup Series starts for Spire Motorsports, grabbing on victory and three top-10 finishes along the way. This season, he has been piloting the No. 51 Ford for Rick Ware Racing and Haley has been able to post two top-10 finishes through the first 28 races of the year. Corey Lajoie will move over to the No. 51 car at Kansas next weekend in a trade of sorts between the two organizations. During the press conference announcing this move, Justin Haley stated, "This [Spire Motorsports] is where I got my start in the Cup Series, and I'm excited to go out there and compete with Ryan Sparks and the No. 7 team. The next seven races will give us nice head start and a baseline for next season."
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Spire Motorsports
4 months agoKyle Larson didn't quite have the day he was hoping for at Watkins Glen this past Sunday. The Hendrick Motorsports driver entered the Go Bowling at The Glen as one of the pre-race favorites, but ultimately ended up finishing 12th in a race where the non-playoff drivers shined. Larson did finish eighth in the first Stage but was penalized for equipment interference later in the race. By the end of it, "Yung Money" was able to rally for a 12th-place finish, his second-straight finishes outside of the top 10 at the track after winning back-to-back races there in 2021 and 2022. Larson now enters Bristol next weekend with a 26-point advantage on the cut line for the first round of the playoffs. Although that is a pretty good-sized gap, one early issue for the No. 5 Chevrolet next weekend and we could see Larson exiting this year's postseason extremely early.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Hendrick Motorsports
4 months agoIt wasn't the race Ty Gibbs was hoping to have at Watkins Glen this past weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been one of the strongest on the road course tracks this season, yet he was only able to finish 22nd in the Go Bowling at The Glen and now sits just six points above the cut line as the first round of the playoffs heads to the third and final race at Bristol. If Gibbs falls below the cut line, he will be eliminated from Championship contention. Thankfully, he was able to finish fourth in Stage Two at The Glen, earning valuable points, but it will be no easy task to continue on in the post season for young Gibbs next weekend.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Jayski
4 months agoChris Buescher has long been considered a "surprisingly good" road course racer, especially in the Next Gen era, where he entered last weekend's Go Bowling at the Glen with 12 straight finishes of 11th or better at the track type. Well now Buescher can no longer be considered a surprise when the series visits a road course, because the Roush-Fenway Keselowski driver put on a clinic at Watkins Glen and got to victory lane after an amazing last-lap battle with Shane van Gisbergen. The victory was Buescher's first of the season and sixth of his Cup Series career. Although he's not in the playoffs, Buescher is finishing out this season strong, and now the series heads to Bristol on Saturday night, where he won at in 2022.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Jayski
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