March 9, 2025
Although short tracks have become arguably Bubba Wallace's best track type in terms of finishes, Phoenix isn't a short track and Wallace usually qualifies poorly and runs in the upper midfield here. However, his 19th-place qualifying run yesterday was actually tied for the second-best of his career and he has finished between 7th and 16th in his last four starts, with his best career finish coming in last year's finale. Despite the speed the Toyotas have here Wallace is unlikely to lead as he has only led four laps at the track ever, but he stands a good chance at gaining some positions and collecting a solid finish. He's not likely to be a top ten points scorer on DraftKings, but at $7,300 he is a lot cheaper than most of the drivers who are, so there is some value.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
John Hunter Nemechek of Legacy Motor Club obtained a starting position of 36th after qualifying for this week's Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway. This is the lowest starting position of Nemechek's Cup career to date at Phoenix and the first time he will start outside of the top 30 at the site. In five starts at Phoenix, Nemechek's best finish is 25th, and he also has two finishes with positive Place Differential. In practice, Nemechek ranked 20th in overall lap averages while ranking as high as 31st in 25 consecutive lap averages. Nemechek's practice speeds were not impressive, and his Phoenix history also is not great. Still, his enormous upside from his starting position makes him worth consideration as a safe cash game play, especially for his cheap salary ($5,300).
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 9, 2025
After the embarrassment of crashing himself and his possible replacement, Connor Zilisch, out last week at Austin, Daniel Suárez will be eager to prove himself at Phoenix, but his 31st-place starting position is tied for the second-worst of his career here, and that came when he was driving for Gaunt Brothers Racing. However, his worst starting position came in the last race at Phoenix in last year's finale, where he started 34th and recovered to a 10th-place finish, his third straight top-15 finish and his fourth with the Next Gen car. He has never led a lap here, and he presumably won't on Sunday, but he is likely to finish better than he starts. Since he costs only $7,100 in DFS and is likely to score place-differential points, he's definitely an interesting low-cost option, especially because he really made the option tire work for him last year at Richmond.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Josh Berry has a knack for qualifying in the NASCAR Cup Series although it often escapes notice. After seven top five qualifying runs in his rookie season and another at Atlanta this year, he starts on the outside of Row 2 at Phoenix today, the best starting position on a non-drafting oval for the No. 21 car since Matt DiBenedetto at Michigan in 2021. Since the Wood Brothers is currently a Team Penske satellite and Penske tends to place disproportionate focus on this track because it hosts the championship race, it might not be surprising Berry is fast, but while he sometimes shows the propensity to battle for the lead and could earn some lap leader points for DFS, he's also the most crash-prone driver and hardly consistent enough to be worth betting on. It wouldn't be surprising if he ran well, but he'll likely finish worse than he starts.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Considering Erik Jones has been one of the weakest qualifiers in the NASCAR Cup Series in recent years, the fact that Jones qualified fifth for Sunday's race at Phoenix may come as a surprise. However, he has qualified in the top 10 nine times here, including thrice with Legacy Motor Club. But after being dropped from Joe Gibbs Racing, he has never come close to contending here as his best finish in the No. 43 car has been 14th, although he did have a 10th-place average running position in the 2023 finale. It's possible that his cars are faster since Ben Beshore became his crew chief or he is faster since he has healed from last year's injury, but since he qualified fourth last year and ran poorly, you shouldn't count on him, and Legacy's recent history suggests he won't finish well.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Noah Gragson may fade in the background more than any other NASCAR Cup Series driver lately, but his record at Phoenix is really solid as he finished 12th in both events last year and he was actually by far the highest-placed finisher for Stewart-Haas Racing in their final race in last year's finale. Although he qualified only 33rd in his first Phoenix race for Front Row Motorsports, he'll probably have speed because FRM is a Team Penske satellite and Penske has repeatedly gone on all in on Phoenix. Although the TV coverage won't likely pay much attention, expect him to gain a lot of positions in the race. Since he is only valued at $6,800, he's not only a good option for DFS lineups - he's practically a must-have.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Shane van Gisbergen's season effectively lives or dies based on his road course performances to such an extent where his oval performances are something of an afterthought. He makes his first NASCAR Cup Series start at Phoenix today but he performed decently well here in the Xfinity Series, where he finished 6th and 12th in his two starts; he had a better average finish here than his veteran teammate A.J. Allmendinger. SVG starts 29th but his relative inexperience on non-drafting ovals in the Cup Series suggests that he still needs seat time before he has a lot of value on this track type, and it doesn't help that the Trackhouse Racing cars have very hit-or-miss speed on tracks less than 1.5 miles in length. The option tires may help him since he likely has more experience on them in Supercars, but he's probably not worth starting for DFS.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Phoenix has been a pretty terrible track for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He has only ever placed in the top 10 twice in 24 starts, with both coming in his relative glory days at Roush Fenway Racing in 2017. Since the move to the Next Gen chassis, he has never finished better than 19th and he tends to always finish right around where he starts. Since he is starting 22nd on Sunday, he will likely finish approximately there as well, as he did in both 2023 races and the 2024 winter race. Since he is neither likely to score many place-differential points or score any lap-leader points -- having only led two laps at the track in his career in addition to remaining very crash-prone -- he's pretty much worthless for DFS lineups on Sunday.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Justin Haley seems to have lucked out that the Spire Motorsports cars are significantly faster than they were last season (and even faster than the Rick Ware cars he had last year), but it doesn't seem to have much to do with him. Carson Hocevar and Michael McDowell have looked faster all year, and Saturday was no exception, as he qualified a seemingly impressive eighth until you realize both of his teammates still outqualified him. Haley is good at finishing races, but he doesn't seem to have a very high ceiling. While he's certainly never had a car as fast as this one, and he is usually good at improving through the field, he has also only placed better than 24th once in 2022 and has never led a lap. Haley will likely finish significantly worse than he starts, and therefore is a very weak DFS option.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
After an improbable three straight 17th-place finishes to start the season, Riley Herbst qualified one spot worse than that at Phoenix, which was actually his best qualifying position on a non-drafting oval in his Cup Series career to date. However, don't expect him to extend his streak a fourth week as Herbst developed very lowly in the Xfinity Series, which likely suggests the same will hold true for him in Cup. The first three races on drafting ovals and a road course are the kind of quirky races where an unheralded underdog can place well just by avoiding crashes, but in a more run-of-the-mill race like at Phoenix, he's probably going to be much slower as he learns the ropes and will probably finish worse than he starts. Even though Herbst has a solid projected finish in theory, he's not a good DFS play.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Zane Smith starts 26th at Phoenix and on paper is not expected to do much because his best career finish at the track is 29th. However, he has switched from Spire Motorsports to Front Row Motorsports for 2025 and FRM has arguably been better at the track lately than Spire was last year. Michael McDowell had top fifteens in three of his last four starts while Todd Gilliland posted top 20s in both races. Since Smith was substantially faster in the second half of 2024 than the first, it seems likely that his actual finish will be better than his projected finish at this track, especially since FRM is a Penske satellite and the Penske has obviously put far more emphasis into Phoenix than any other team after winning three straight titles here. He is a lowkey solid choice for place differential.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Cody Ware qualified 35th for Sunday's race at Phoenix. Although Ware has finished better than he has started in every one of his Phoenix starts, except for the 2021 winter race where he crashed, there still isn't enough upside to actually consider him for DFS lineups. He has never finished better than 28th in a race here, nor has he finished less than four laps down. Although his DraftKings salary of $4,800 is the second-cheapest in the field, ahead of only debutant Katherine Legge, there's a reason for that, and he is best avoided.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
William Byron will definitely be a contender in the Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway this weekend. The Hendrick Motorsports driver looked stout in practice on Saturday, ranking second-fastest in 30-lap average, and then Byron went out and followed that up by winning the pole in qualifying later that afternoon. As far as track record goes at Phoenix, Byron has been one of the best in the desert in the Next Gen era. Looking at the last five races here, he's finished sixth or better four times, and got a win in the spring race here two years ago. Byron has also led a combined 178 laps over the last four events at this track. As far as DFS contests go, Byron is a great candidate to grab early dominator points and he should be able to contend for the race win, too. At $10,000 on DraftKings, he has a hefty price tag, but has a good chance of making it into the optimal lineup despite that.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Jayski
March
9,
2025
Fresh
off
of
back-to-back
wins
at
Atlanta
and
COTA,
Christopher
Bell
now
shifts
his
focus
to
Phoenix
Raceway,
a
track
where
he
absolutely
dominated
at
last
season.
Will
the
Joe
Gibbs
Racing
driver
be
able
to
grab
his
third
Cup
Series
read more...
March
9,
2025
If
we
were
to
tell
you
that
there
was
a
driver
who
hasn't
finished
worse
than
fifth
in
the
last
seven
races
at
Phoenix
Raceway,
a
normal
reaction
would
be,
"well
he
has
definitely
won
at
least
one
or
two
of
read more...
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