March 10, 2025
Tommy Fleetwood finished tied for 11th at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational and is now focusing on preparing for this week's The PLAYERS Championship, which will be held at TPC Sawgrass. He hasn't finished worse than a tie for 22nd in all four of his starts this year, and he aims to maintain that level of play this week. Historically, Fleetwood has performed well at The PLAYERS Championship, finishing tied for 35th in 2024, tied for 27th in 2023, and tied for 22nd in 2022. Over the past 12 months, Fleetwood ranks in the 99th percentile for greens in regulation percentage on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway. This is significant because, at last year's The PLAYERS Championship, over 32% of approach shots came from this distance. Given his strong performance, Fleetwood could be a valuable addition to DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
March 10, 2025
Jason Day finished tied for eighth at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational and aims to maintain his strong play for this week's The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. He hasn't missed the cut in any of his seven starts this year and has three top-10 finishes. Day has had mixed results at The PLAYERS Championship in previous years, finishing T35 in 2024, T19 in 2023, and missing the cut in 2022. Notably, at last year's The PLAYERS Championship, over 32% of approach shots came from 100-150 yards. In the past 12 months, Day has ranked in the 61st percentile for greens in regulation percentage on approach shots from this distance in the fairway. Given his excellent form, he could be a valuable addition to DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
March 10, 2025
Sam Burns finished T48 at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational and is now focusing on preparing for The PLAYERS Championship, which will be held at TPC Sawgrass this week. Burns has not missed the cut in any of his six tournaments this year and has a solid history at The PLAYERS Championship. He finished T45 in 2024, T35 in 2023, and T26 in 2022. In last year's edition, over 32% of approach shots came from 100-150 yards. Over the past 12 months, Burns has ranked in the 58th percentile for greens in regulation percentage on approach shots from this distance in the fairway. Given his recent performance and past success at The PLAYERS Championship, Burns could be a valuable addition to DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
March 10, 2025
Ludvig Aberg finished T22 at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational and is now focusing on preparing for this week's The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. This will mark Aberg's second appearance at The PLAYERS Championship, where he finished eighth last year. Notably, over the past 12 months, Aberg ranks in the 83rd percentile for greens in regulation percentage on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway. This is particularly important because at last year's The PLAYERS Championship, over 32% of approach shots came from this distance. Aberg could be a strong addition to DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
March 5, 2025
After a poor start to the season, it was good to see Sahith Theegala finish T17 at the Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago. He's made every cut over his six starts, but his last outing was the first time DFS players were actually happy to have him in their lineups. The putter seems like the lone bright spot that could be in a position to help him have consistent finishes. He's gained over four and five shots on the greens in two of his last three starts, but the rest of his game hasn't been as fruitful. His work with the driver has helped him tremendously over his three career appearances at Bay Hill, with an average of +0.683 in strokes gained off the tee. However, having lost strokes in that metric in three of his last four starts doesn't do anything to reinforce confidence there. Hopefully, his last outing was a sign of things to come, but it's still too early to tell.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 5, 2025
For the most part, knowing which Robert MacIntyre will be on display each week is the toughest battle in knowing what to do with him in DFS. He's been feast or famine with the flat stick, though the latter is the more dominant trend, ranking 157th in strokes gained putting (-0.487) on the season. What makes him interesting this week is his dominance off the tee (+0.726 strokes gained average: ranked eighth on the season), the typical strength on approach, and his short game. With only one appearance at Bay Hill that resulted in a T36 in 2021, there is still some learning for the Scottish golfer, but there is value here with lower perceived ownership than the more popular players around him.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 5, 2025
Just as much of last season went, 2025 is much of the same for Max Homa. The 34-year-old is coming to Bay Hill having missed his previous two cuts. His woes are pretty cut and dry, with ball striking being the biggest detriment to his game. Over his last four starts, Homa is averaging an abysmal -1.835 strokes gained on approach, which would rank second-to-last for the season. Luckily, he's managing to produce positive metrics in most other areas, but bleeding that many shots with the irons is impossible to overcome. The former CAL golfer has had a successful run at Bay Hill, having never finished outside the top 25 in five career starts. He desperately needs that trend to continue, but for DFS players, it's best to let other suckers take this bait.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
March 5, 2025
Early in his career, the Arnold Palmer Invitational looked like a place itching to award Tommy Fleetwood his first victory on American soil. However, after eight attempts, things have begun to go sideways for the English golfer at Bay Hill in recent years, having shot a second-round 80 last year and being only one of 11 players to miss the cut. 2025 has started well for the 34-year-old, and his most recent T5 finish at the Genesis certainly piques the interest of many DFS players wondering if it's time to jump back on the Fleetwood-Bay Hill bandwagon. Considering that his bad time last year was from losing over four strokes on approach in the two rounds played and the fact that he's currently leading the PGA Tour this season in that same metric (+1.178), the tides certainly seem to be changing. Start Fleetwood with confidence.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 5, 2025
There aren't many players making the start this week who're playing as well as Michael Kim. The 31-year-old has continuously been in contention in his last four starts, gaining over 12 strokes on approach and over 10 strokes around the greens during that span. That has propelled him to a seventh-place ranking on the season in strokes gained tee to green (+1.228). If that trend continues, there are very few places on Tour where he won't find success. Everything is clicking right now, and until the train loses momentum, there is no reason to get off.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
March 5, 2025
After a ho-hum finish at Kapalua to start the year, the golf game has been on the shelf for Xander Schauffele as the reigning PGA and Open Champion has been dealing with a nagging rib injury ever since. Forcing him to miss playing some personally meaningful tournaments, like the two events at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach. It's impossible to dismiss someone of Schauffele's pedigree, but a slow start to ease back into the swing of things would be completely understandable. He's never performed that well at Bay Hill to begin with, averaging -0.119 strokes gained on approach and -0.070 in strokes gained around the green over his last 12 rounds. Both should be equally important this week and will give us a sense of what/how much he's been able to practice during his time off. At $12,000 on FanDuel, the X-man is too expensive to take a chance on until we see where his game is.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 5, 2025
Sepp Straka is a golfer that can be hot when his form is on. The Austrian golfer bounced back from a rough time at The Genesis Invitational last week. At PGA National in Florida, Straka fell out of the Top 10 late but finished T-11 behind a 70. This was after three rounds of 67. A few errant shots and putts did not go Straka's way. Bay Hill penalizes more for errant tee shots and irons so Straka will need to avoid mistakes this week. At Torrey Pines, he did not and paid dearly. Straka ranks inside the Top 10 in some models when combining birdie potential, strokes gained on approach and strokes gained in Florida. Ranking 11th in 2025 in approach to green at 0.867 strokes gained could make him a nice Top 5 or Top 10 betting option this week.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
For a tournament with such a knack for producing leaderboards full of top PGA Tour talent, it has been surprising to see Collin Morikawa struggle in most of his appearances. However, all of it can be linked back to his consistent loss of strokes with his putter and short game. In four career starts, the 28-year-old has averaged -0.758 in strokes gained around the green and -0.706 in strokes gained putting. That certainly won't get things done against the game's best players. Given his hot start to the season, there is optimism that this year's tournament will yield better results, and his talent level undoubtedly deserves it. At $11,400 on FanDuel, using Morikawa or not should realistically come down to ownership projections. The higher it is, the more worrisome his clear uncomfortableness around this property becomes less worth the risk.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 5, 2025
Justin Rose played really well at Pebble Beach in mostly pristine conditions. The English golfer had a much rougher time contending with Torrey Pines and missed the cut twice along the way. Bay Hill can show its teeth at any time. The 11-time PGA Tour winner is 44 not 34 anymore and the long 7,468-yard course might be a little too lengthy. Rose has shown an inability to keep his irons in play and ranks 146th off the tee and 150th approaching the green in 2025. 2024 was equally bad (119th and 157th). When the conditions got somewhat rough last year, Rose withered and shot a 77 to miss the cut. Breezy conditions are expected Thursday which makes the odds to miss the cut again for Rose intriguing.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
Maverick McNealy has had quite the nice start to 2025. The American golfer has three Top 10 results in six events. That includes nearly winning The Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago. McNealy got better each day at the second go with Torrey Pines. This culminated in a Sunday 64 which nearly got him into the win column. That surge pushed his numbers as high as +4500 via DraftKings. McNealy does not fare well in the model rankings and course comparables at Bay Hill. However, the first 24 rounds of 2025 give him a helping hand. Strokes gained overall (1.253) ranks 14th and total birdies (115) rank 6th. If the course plays less windy than expected on Thursday and Sunday, McNealy could be a decent Top 10 or 20 betting option again.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
Shane Lowry keeps getting lots of positive press heading into the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. The Irish golfer likes long but tough golf courses. Bay Hill is almost 7,500 yards in length and has some nasty rough. In breezy conditions, the course can play several strokes above average. The 2019 Open Championship winner only has three PGA Tour wins in his career. However, Lowry figured out something last year at the course and finished third. At PGA National, the golfer almost snagged a Top 10 (T-11) and gained five strokes on approach (5.04) over the weekend. The concern is can he put at least three such rounds together. If he comes close, Lowry can contend and maybe surprise the signature field at Bay Hill.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
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