2 months agoMichael McDowell's qualifying dominance on drafting tracks continued as he won the pole for this afternoon's YellaWood 500 at Talladega, his fifth straight pole on this track type and sixth this season, the most of any driver. However, he has struggled to maintain his position in those races as his average finish after winning the pole on this track type is 22.75. McDowell made 12 passes for the lead in his previous four drafting track races where he won the pole and was passed 15 times, which means he is more likely to be passed than remain up front. Admittedly, he crashed while making a failed block while leading at both Talladega and Daytona, so he'll probably have the speed to run up front, but given his failed blocks this year, it's hard to imagine him making the right move to actually win.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 months agoJoey Logano qualified 6th for this afternoon's Talladega race and sits four points above the playoff cutline in a tie with Chase Elliott. Although he has not run very well at most tracks this season relative to his usual standard, he has been very strong on drafting tracks as he led the most laps at both Daytona races and won at Atlanta, so one should expect him to be a leading contender to win. Despite how well he has run consistently for years, Logano has eight crash DNFs at Talladega and has only had a single top ten in his last 10 starts. However, the Penske cars are much faster than any other team on this track type and fewer cars have tended to crash at Talladega than at Daytona or Atlanta with this car. Given that Logano tends to overachieve in playoff races, expect him to get a finish.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 months agoErik Jones's season has been one to forget after suffering a fractured vertebra in the spring race at Talladega when his teammate John Hunter Nemechek triggered a multi-car crash. Despite looking like a playoff contender as recently as 2022, Jones has not led a lap this season nor has he finished in the top ten since the Daytona 500 or posted a better average running position than 12th. He was regarded as one of the best drafters in the series rather recently as he led 48 laps and made an astonishing 19 passes for the lead in the two Talladega races in 2022. He also passed a lot of cars on the final lap of the spring 2023 Talladega race. However, his 30th-place starting position is his worst ever here, which combined with his overall poor results suggests that his lack of speed will probably override his drafting ability.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 months agoAlthough Ty Gibbs was eliminated from the playoffs, he can still salvage his season with a win at Talladega, but the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have been slower than you'd expect on drafting tracks lately. Although his teammates Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin have been two of this season's most dominant drivers, three out of four Gibbs drivers including them failed to lead in the last two drafting races at Daytona and Atlanta. However, the exception was Gibbs, who made two passes for the lead at Atlanta and led 37 laps before Joey Logano snookered him. He also made three passes for the lead at Talladega in the spring 2023 race and starts a decent 15th. He seems to be intensely motivated to win, which could benefit him. However, it's more likely that his Toyota won't be able to keep up with Ford's speed.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 months agoChase Elliott starts 11th at Talladega and enters the race in a tie with Joey Logano four points above the playoff cutline to reach the Round of 8. Elliott has consistently had speed at Talladega from the beginning as he won the pole for his first race there and won there twice in 2019 and 2022, which makes him better at this track type than most other playoff contenders. Although he still isn't running as well as he typically did prior to 2023, he has been very good at avoiding crashing out of races despite actually being tied for the fifth most incidents this season. He has his best career average finish to date and he has also failed to crash in his last eight Talladega starts. If these trends continue, he should be fine to advance to the Round of 8.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 months agoAfter winning at Kansas, Ross Chastain looks to become the first back-to-back NASCAR Cup Series winner since Chris Buescher over a year ago at Talladega today. Although he only starts 27th, Chastain has been strong at drafting tracks in the past as he won the spring 2022 Talladega race, but that was mostly because Erik Jones's drafting help crashed behind him. However, Chastain has had speed this season as he attempted to make a final pass for the win in the Daytona 500 on William Byron coming to the white flag before being spun out and he also made passes for the lead in the spring Talladega and summer Daytona races and his teammate Daniel Suarez also won at Atlanta. Trackhouse Racing seems to have drafting track speed, but significantly less than the Fords. However, given the team's speed and his recent momentum, don't be remotely surprised if he wins.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 months agoAfter improbably winning the summer Daytona race in August, Harrison Burton looks to duplicate that performance at Talladega. Since his Wood Brothers car is prepared by Team Penske and Penske and its satellites have been dominating on drafting tracks all season, there is a slight possibility that Burton could win again and his 9th place starting position is his first top ten start in over a year. However, it is unlikely he will outrun the Penske and Front Row Motorsports cars on merit since all five of those drivers are better, so he would likely need to be the last man standing after several of them crashed like what happened at Daytona in order to significantly contend. Since recent Talladega races have not had as many wrecked cars as recent Daytona races, that seems very unlikely to happen.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 months agoAfter his dismal run at Kansas last week, Chase Briscoe is probably doomed in terms of making into the Round of 8 on speed as he sits 25 points below the cutline and qualified 36th, worst of all the Ford drivers on a track type where Fords tend to dominate both in qualifying and in the race. While the Fords have generally been fast, the Stewart-Haas Fords have not tended to be as fast as the Penske-affiliated Fords and Briscoe has led only a whopping five laps on drafting tracks this season, so he is not likely to win and in. Briscoe's best hope is likely for him not to crash while other playoff drivers ahead of him in points do. Given the nature of drafting races, that could certainly happen, but given that fewer drivers have crashed in Talladega races lately compared to years previously, bet against it.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 months agoAlthough Kaulig Racing has not had much speed on most tracks other than road courses this year with any driver in either the NASCAR Cup Series or the Xfinity Series, they have been decent on the drafting tracks in both series as A.J. Allmendinger did finish 6th in the Daytona 500 where he made a pass for the lead and Shane van Gisbergen and Daniel Hemric both made passes for the lead in the spring Talladega race. On the other hand, Allmendinger has only led 11 laps at Talladega in his long career and has crashed out of four of his last six starts, which does not inspire much confidence and he is only starting 25th. However, he did lead 13 laps in yesterday's Xfinity Series race and he won once in 2022 in that division. Expect Allmendinger to lead a couple laps at some point without significantly contending.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 months agoIn qualifying for Sunday's YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, Stewart-Haas Racing driver Noah Gragson nabbed a starting position of 22nd. This is the highest starting position for Gragson at Talladega since October 2022, when he filled in for an injured Alex Bowman at Hendrick Motorsports. In four previous races at the site, Gragson obtained positive Place Differential twice, and his best finish was third, which he scored earlier in the year with Stewart-Haas Racing. After 30 races this season, Gragson has 19 top-20 finishes, including two top-10 finishes at drafting tracks. With solid upside and equipment, Gragson is not a bad choice for DFS lineups in any format this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
2 months agoAustin Dillon of Richard Childress Racing qualified seventh in this week's YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. It will be the sixth race this season where Dillon will start a race inside the Top 10. In 22 starts at Talladega, Dillon has five top-10 finishes, with only one acquired since 2022. In 30 races completed so far in 2024, Dillon has one win and three top-10 finishes. At drafting tracks this year, Dillon's best finish was 20th in the second Atlanta race and he has yet to score a finish with positive Place Differential at the track type. Based on his 2024 performance at superspeedways, recent Talladega history, and low upside, it is recommended that fantasy players do not utilize Dillon in DFS, especially with other options having more upside both around and below his salary.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
2 months agoRFK Racing's Chris Buescher obtained a starting position of 20th for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. This will be the third time since the introduction of the Next-Gen car in 2022 where Buescher will start a race inside the Top 20 at Talladega. In 18 races at the Alabama track, Buescher has eight top-20 finishes, with three of them being collected in his last six appearances. Through 30 races this season, Buescher has one win and 24 top-20 finishes, including 13 inside the Top 10. At superspeedway races this season, Buescher has three top-20 finishes in five events at the track type, including top-10s in both Daytona races. With decent upside and equipment capable of competing for a top-10 finish, Buescher is a driver who is usable in DFS lineups.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
2 months agoHendrick Motorsports driver Alex Bowman will start 23rd in this week's YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. This will be the fourth time in what will be six Talladega races where Bowman will start a race there worse than 20th. In 17 races at the site, Bowman has eight top-20 finishes, including a finish of fifth earlier in the year. With 30 races completed this year, Bowman has one win and 23 top-20 finishes, with 15 inside the Top 10. Bowman has three top-5 finishes at superspeedway events this year and obtained positive Place Differential in four of the five races at the track type. As a solid driver is at superspeedway tracks this year, and because of top-tier equipment from Hendrick, Bowman should not be ignored as a great pick for lineups this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
2 months agoFor Sunday's YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, Christopher Bell will start the race from the 21st position, marking his worst starting position at the site since joining Joe Gibbs Racing in 2021. In nine previous starts at Talladega, Bell has five top-20 finishes, including two inside the Top 10, and scored positive Placed Differential three times. After 30 races this season, Bell has three wins, 18 top-10 finishes, and led the third-most laps (843). At races with the superspeedway rules package this year, Bell has three top-5 finishes and gained positive PD three times. Considering how well Bell has done at superspeedway events and his consistency in recent races (five top-10s in the last six Cup events), the No. 20 Toyota driver is a solid DFS option with upside worth rostering this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
2 months agoJustin Haley has a bunch of place-differential upside this weekend in the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, and because of that, the Spire Motorsports driver will likely be one of the highest-owned on the DFS slate. Haley qualified back in 35th for this weekend's race (out of 40 drivers). However, the question is, will he be able to get up to the front? Finishes haven't been easy to come by for Haley at the drafting superspeedways of late, as he has ended up outside of the top 20 entirely in six of the last nine races at this track type. With that being said, Haley did finish sixth in the fall Talladega race last season, so it's not like he's incapable of putting up a good DFS score this weekend. You should still have plenty of Haley exposure on Sunday afternoon despite his shaky record at this track type.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Driver Averages
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