X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 9: PITCHf/x

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. PITCHf/x is a publicly available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to help fantasy owners make this determination for mound breakouts and busts alike.

The first data point, and the easiest to understand, is velocity. Generally speaking, a pitcher that loses fastball velocity is losing something to either an undisclosed injury or the aging process. Pitchers that gain velocity can expect to increase their production. The average major league heater was 92.4 mph in 2015, though of course a pitcher's established baseline is a better indicator of future performance. Other variables like movement and location also matter, but velocity is a good introduction to using PITCHf/x data.

Slightly more advanced is pitch mix, or what pitches a pitcher throws and how often he throws them. A pitcher may improve his production by abandoning a poor pitch or developing a new, effective one. This is a good stat to consult if a pitcher sees a sharp change in his GB% or K%, as a change in pitch mix could represent the change in approach that justifies the new number. If the change does not have a corresponding pitch mix shift, it may be less sustainable.

For example, consider Detroit's Justin Verlander. His GB% declined last year relative to 2014, 39.6% to 34.6%. His K% spiked in the same time frame, from 17.8% to 21.1%. Are these numbers the result of random fluctuation, or did Verlander change his pitch selection to bring them about?

PITCHf/x tracks each pitch's individual results, so any change in pitch selection can be evaluated by comparing an offering's usage percentage and its performance, in this case GB% and SwStr%. The biggest change in Verlander's pitch selection was that he threw more heaters (37.4% to 49.6%) and fewer changeups (28.5% to 18.3%) in 2015. The fastball had a GB% of 24.9%, while the change offered a 39.1% rate. More fastballs and fewer changeups would be expected to lead to a decline in overall GB%, and that is exactly what happened.

Verlander's heat generated whiffs 9.8% of the time, while the change posted a SwStr% of just 7.6%. We would expect this to lead to an increased K%, and again that is exactly what happened. The same type of analysis may be performed for a number of other stats, including FB%, LD%, BB%, HR/FB and even BABIP. There is no point in looking at a league average pitch mix, as every pitcher owns a different arsenal.

All of these variables may be considered over a pitcher's complete repertoire to determine how good he is (or should be) without relying on any conventional metrics. This can be good for identifying sleepers, pitchers that have one or two stand out pitches that could break out by simply using them more often. Lets have some fun with our example and use Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw threw four different pitches in 2015: a fastball 53.9% of the time, a slider 27.3% of the time, a curve 18.2% of the time, and a change 0.5% of the time. The change was thrown 18 times over the entire season, so it may have been a misrecorded slider or a rare mistake pitch. At any rate, the sample size is too small to consider it in this discussion, leaving three offerings for our analysis.

The fastball averaged 93.6 mph, a couple of ticks better than league average. It spent a good portion of time in the strike zone, registering a Zone% of 57.9%. That may seem low, but remember that a pitcher that throws too many strikes is likely to be hammered. The pitch recorded an above average 10.1% SwStr%, a hair better than the overall league average of 9.9%. It was a good pitch, but does not seem to make Kershaw Kershaw.

That is what the slider is for. It was only a strike 41.1% of the time, but compensated by making hitters chase it at a whopping 46.4% clip. That helped give it a SwStr% of 25.6%, absolutely obliterating the average rate and explaining how Kershaw compiled 300 Ks last year.

Kershaw also has the curveball. It was a strike even less frequently at 38.2%, but also posted an above average O-Swing% of 38.9%. This gave it a SwStr% of 18.8%--very good, but inferior to Kershaw's slider. Why throw it?

Sometimes, hitters actually put the ball in play. Batters managed a triple slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) of only .116/.116/.169 against Kershaw's curveball in 2015, compared to .175/.200/.260 against the slider and .233/.297/.340 against the heat. All three are well above average, and Kershaw's arsenal is an embarrassment of riches if there ever was one. He's fun to look at, but he can't be a baseline.

What is the baseline for this type of analysis? It depends on the observer, as there are almost as many ways to interpret this data as there are data points to consider. The league average O-Swing% was 31.3% in 2015, and most good wipeout-type pitches need to beat that substantially. The overall zone% was 45.3%, including pitches like splitters in the dirt and high fastballs that were never intended as strikes.

The fastball will always be inferior in results to pitches that do not need to live in the strike zone, like Kershaw's slider. Pitches hit outside of the zone also offer better results than offerings in the hitting zone when they are put into play. However, getting ahead in the count is necessary to make those pitches work as intended, making mediocre fastball results a necessity.

It is dangerous to generalize, but 2-seam fastballs and sinkers tend to stink for fantasy purposes. They're usually in the strike zone, but get hit harder than fastballs. They may post strong GB% rates, but also have high BABIPs and scary triple slash lines. Any sinker hit in the air was probably a mistake, so the HR/FB rate is usually high for the limited number of fly balls hit against them. Overall, fantasy owners prefer a fastball or cutter to be the strike zone pitch in a pitcher's repertoire.

Personally, I like a fastball with a SwStr% of around league average and a zone% of around 53%. Many pitchers succeed with a lower zone%, but I can't stand watching walks. I then look for a wipeout pitch that offers a SwStr% of at least 15% and an O-Swing% of 40%. Ideally, there is a secondary K pitch, like Kershaw's curve, that prevents the 0-2 pitch from being too predictable. Only aces really fulfill all of these criteria, but I can dream, right?

To conclude, PITCHf/x tracks a lot of data of interest to fantasy owners, including average velocity, pitch mix and individual pitch results. All of this data may be used to predict who will break out or which breakouts can sustain their current performance. The last entry in this series will discuss how to deal with minor league stats, which do not include all of the advanced metrics discussed thus far. Projecting prospects has increasingly become a part of every fantasy owner's job, and there are ways to analyze them beyond a blind faith in homers and ERA.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

AJ Green16 mins ago

May Miss Another Game Tuesday
Thomas Harrington20 mins ago

Making MLB Debut On Tuesday
Kyle Lowry21 mins ago

Picks Up A Questionable Tag
Tyrese Maxey26 mins ago

Remains Out Against Knicks
Quentin Grimes34 mins ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Teoscar Hernández57 mins ago

Teoscar Hernandez Goes Deep On Monday
Gavin Sheets1 hour ago

Tallies Four RBI In Monday's Victory
Wilmer Flores1 hour ago

Hits Home Run, Tallies Four RBI In Victory
Dansby Swanson1 hour ago

Goes Deep Again On Monday
Christian McGowan1 hour ago

Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Kumar Rocker2 hours ago

Allows Six Runs In Season Debut
Jacob Wilson2 hours ago

Launches First MLB Home Run
Casey DeSmith2 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment2 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka2 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov2 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov2 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes3 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Andrés Giménez3 hours ago

Andres Gimenez Homers, Steals A Base On Monday
Lars Nootbaar3 hours ago

Homers On Monday
Brant Hurter3 hours ago

Picks Up Save On Monday
Otto Lopez3 hours ago

Homers In Loss To Mets
James Wood3 hours ago

Homers Monday
David Peterson3 hours ago

Strikes Out Nine In Win Over Marlins
Pete Alonso3 hours ago

Hits A Grand Slam On Monday
Matt McLain3 hours ago

Homers On Monday
Brady Singer4 hours ago

Strikes Out Eight On Monday
Elly De La Cruz4 hours ago

Homers Twice, Drives In Seven
Jackson Jobe8 hours ago

Inefficient In First Career Start Monday
Tyler Glasnow8 hours ago

Fans Eight, Earns Win In Monday Debut
San Diego Padres8 hours ago

Kash Mayfield Assigned To Single-A
Sam Stevens11 hours ago

Enjoyed Nice Result In Houston
PGA11 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Ochai Agbaji11 hours ago

Resting On Tuesday
RJ Barrett11 hours ago

To Be Rested Tuesday Night
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Returning To Action Against Bulls
Jakob Poeltl12 hours ago

Available On Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga12 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday's Game
Christian Braun12 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Meeting With Timberwolves
Aaron Gordon12 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Tuesday
Jamal Murray12 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday
LeBron James12 hours ago

Ready To Play Against Rockets
Nikola Jokić12 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play Against Timberwolves
Trae Young13 hours ago

Likely To Face Portland
Bradley Beal13 hours ago

Could Return On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Probable For Tuesday's Action
CJ McCollum13 hours ago

Shut Down For The Rest Of The Season
Denny McCarthy13 hours ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Zion Williamson13 hours ago

Won't Play Again This Season
Brian Harman13 hours ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Jaylin Williams13 hours ago

Back In Thunder Lineup Monday
Isaiah Hartenstein13 hours ago

Will Play On Monday
Ilya Samsonov15 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl15 hours ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Garnet Hathaway16 hours ago

Rejoins Flyers Lineup
Erik Johnson16 hours ago

Available Monday
Rasmus Ristolainen16 hours ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Ryan Preece16 hours ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
Colton Sissons16 hours ago

Likely Out For Rest Of The Season
NASCAR16 hours ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Jonathan Marchessault16 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Todd Gilliland16 hours ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno16 hours ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg16 hours ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober17 hours ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres17 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall17 hours ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos17 hours ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara17 hours ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox17 hours ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez17 hours ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton17 hours ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales17 hours ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.17 hours ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
New York Jets17 hours ago

Jets To Wait On Contract Extensions For Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner
Saimon Oliveira18 hours ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez18 hours ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Jameson Williams18 hours ago

Detroit To Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Kevin Borjas18 hours ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Brandon Aiyuk18 hours ago

49ers Expected To Hold Brandon Aiyuk
Ronaldo Rodríguez18 hours ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen18 hours ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman18 hours ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki18 hours ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy18 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim19 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Rickie Fowler19 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 52nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Bud Cauley19 hours ago

Finishes Tied For Fourth At Valspar Championship
Sam Burns19 hours ago

Misses The Cut At Valspar Championship
Daniel Berger19 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 20th At The PLAYERS Championship
Ludvig Aberg19 hours ago

Misses The Cut At The PLAYERS Championship
Treylon Burks20 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Ready For Training Camp
Keenan Allen21 hours ago

Chargers Not Ruling Out Reuniting With Keenan Allen
Breece Hall21 hours ago

Could Be Part Of Committee In 2025
James Cook21 hours ago

Bills Not Close To Extension With James Cook
Tyreek Hill21 hours ago

Dolphins Planning On Tyreek Hill Being Part Of Their Future
Baltimore Ravens21 hours ago

Ravens Expected To Draft A Kicker
Mark Andrews21 hours ago

Ravens Expect Mark Andrews Back In 2025
Lamar Jackson21 hours ago

Ravens Have Had Early Extension Talks With Lamar Jackson
Christopher Bell22 hours ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott22 hours ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson22 hours ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron22 hours ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano23 hours ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick23 hours ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Joseph Woll1 day ago

Stands Tall On Sunday
UTA1 day ago

Alex Kerfoot Leads The Way In Sunday's Victory
Tristan Jarry1 day ago

Shuts The Door On Ottawa On Sunday
Sebastian Aho1 day ago

Busy In Sunday's Victory
Anze Kopitar1 day ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Sunday
Troy Terry1 day ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Denny Hamlin1 day ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs1 day ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain1 day ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe1 day ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones1 day ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Still Views Himself As A Starter
New York Giants2 days ago

Victor Dimukeje Signs With Giants
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Brian Schottenheimer Optimistic About Deal With Micah Parsons
Lane Hutson2 days ago

Continues Special Campaign With Hat Trick Of Assists
Nick Suzuki2 days ago

Notches Three Points In Sunday's Win
Justin Fields2 days ago

Aaron Glenn Thinks Justin Fields Is Ready To Break Out
Dak Prescott2 days ago

"Doing Great" In Rehab From Hamstring Surgery
Jacksonville Jaguars2 days ago

Fred Johnson Signs With Jacksonville
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

Titans Still Entertaining Calls For No. 1 Overall Pick
Brandon Aiyuk2 days ago

Deadline Coming For Brandon Aiyuk
Josh Berry2 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
Jhonattan Vegas6 days ago

Not A Good Play At Houston Open
Gary Woodland6 days ago

A Dark-Horse Candidate At Houston Open
Nick Taylor6 days ago

Keep An Eye On Nick Taylor At Houston Open
Mackenzie Hughes6 days ago

Avoid Mackenzie Hughes At Houston Open
Nicolai Hojgaard6 days ago

Looking To Rebound At Houston Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]