Emerging Pitchers With New Pitches - Should We Care for Fantasy Baseball? (Part Two)

Eric Samulski evaluates SPs who have developed new pitches for 2023 for Part Two of his FSWA-award-winning series. Will these starting pitchers be fantasy baseball breakouts?

Welcome to the third season of the FSWA-award-winning series Pitchers with New Pitches (and Should We Care) where we take the simple premise that not every new pitch should be greeted with praise. A new pitch, like a shiny new toy, might be exciting on its own, but it also needs to be a complement to what a pitcher already has.

So instead of just celebrating that some pitchers are throwing new pitches, I watched the pitch in action, checked in on its performance, and looked at the Statcast Spin Direction graphics to see if it might actually make the pitcher any more effective. From there, I will try to give you a simple verdict as to whether or not we should care about this new toy or not.

This is one of my favorite things to write, so I hope that you enjoy it. We started last week with four pitchers, and we'll continue this week with four more. It's important to note that this is the first time many of these pitchers have thrown these new pitches in a meaningful game, so the overall quality and consistency may get better over time. I've tried to take that into account in my analysis. We should also note (for the purposes of this article) that I will be including pitchers that have reworked or revamped a pitch to make it "new" even if it was technically a pitch they already threw.

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Kris Bubic - Slider (re-vamped Change-up)

If you were just judging by fantasy baseball Twitter this past weekend, you would have assumed that Kris Bubic had thrown a no-hitter or a perfect game or put together one of the most dominant starts in recent memory. You couldn't click into one conversation without some discussion of how much money people should be spending on Bubic on the waiver wire.

That might surprise you for a pitcher with a 4.78 career ERA, but the six shutout innings against the Giants with nine strikeouts was the second strong start on the season for Bubic and the potential announcement of a 25-year-old former prospect who could be re-inventing himself as a strong MLB starter.

At the core of that re-invention are added velocity, a new slider, and a re-vamped change-up. All of his pitches are up about two mph across the board, and he has more extension on every pitch, thanks to a lower release point, which means he's releasing the ball when his arm is further extended, closer to home plate. That often adds perceived (and sometimes literal) velocity to a pitch since the ball gets on the hitter quicker, but it can also help to improve command and tunneling, depending on the pitcher.

In addition to the new release point and added velocity, Bubic has added a slider to his arsenal. The 85 mph pitch has 8.7 inches of horizontal movement and 38.7 inches of vertical movement, which means it drops 10" less than his curveball while being thrown four mph faster.

Below, you can that the two pitches approach the hitter from a similar release point and also mirror the fastball/change-up pairing relatively well, giving Bubic two pairs of pitches that work well off of one another.

So far, although he's only throwing the slider 10% of the time, it has been a big success, putting up a 126 Stuff+ grade, which makes it the 8th-best slider in baseball by Stuff+ in the early going.  That's incredibly important for him because the curveball registered just a 5.9% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) last year, which means Bubic had no real swing-and-miss pitch other than his change-up, which only posted a 24.8% CSW.

That might also be why Bubic altered his change-up this year, adding almost three mph to it, while increasing the vertical movement slightly in order to create more vertical separation from his four-seam fastball. While the four-seam is still being hit more than his other pitches in 2023, it has a 7% higher whiff rate, and the change-up still continues to miss bats.

You can see a visual representation of his whole arsenal below:

VERDICT: POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL

I hesitate to go higher than "potentially" here because we're only getting the slider 10% of the time right now, which means that a lot of his early results have been fueled by the increased velocity and added extension. While those are strong changes, this article is about the impact of new pitches.

I do believe the slider has a chance to be a clear difference-maker for Bubic because it could give him a legit out pitch, which has been sorely lacking. However, it's also a new pitch for him, and his command of it is spotty. I'd like to see him use the slider more and continue to get a better feel for command of it, but I'd be adding Bubic in most leagues now at least to stash him on my bench and see if the gains continue.

Graham Ashcraft - Slider

We're moving from one Stuff+ leaderboard slider to another as Ashcraft's slider currently ranks 2nd in baseball with a 150 Stuff+ rating through two starts.  That's important for him because Ashcraft has basically become a two-pitch pitcher with his cutter/slider combination.

In order for that to work, the slider needs to miss bats. Last year, it did not with just a 10.3% SwStr%, so Ashcraft not only made the decision to throw the pitch harder – 88.8 mph on average, up from 85.5 mph last year, but he removed almost 5" of vertical drop and added almost 2" of horizontal movement, which, when paired with the added velocity, gives the pitch a lot more bite away from righties.

It has made the pitch unique and perhaps one the best sliders in baseball from a pure velocity/movement standpoint; yet, so far this season, the slider has a 14.7% SwStr%, which is good but actually below the league average for sliders, which is 16.2% SwStr%. So we have a potentially elite slider performing slightly below average. Why?

Well, for starters, it could be Ashcraft's pitch mix. Becoming a two-pitch pitcher with a cutter and slider means that everything moves away from right-handed hitters. You can see in the Statcast heat map that he keeps his cutter up, but he never really throws it in on righties, which makes sense because you don't do that with a cutter as a right-handed pitcher.

It also means that right-handed hitters don't have to look inside when facing Ashcraft. They can look for a pitch on the outside third of the plate and then sit on the cutter and adjust to the slider or vice-versa. Since Ashcraft is not varying many pitch types and also cutting off a whole third of the plate, that makes the hitter's job easier.

This is also why he has career splits of a .327 average and .520 slugging percentage (SLG) to righties and a .213 average and .255 SLG against lefties. This year, it's a .360 average and .480 slugging SLG to righties and a .045 average and .182 SLG.

That's a problem. Now, it's only a small sample size, but while the new slider is missing a few more bats, it's not actually helping Ashcraft get right-handed hitters out and he still has a 9.00 K/9, which is fine but not great.

VERDICT: MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL

I thought this pitch was going to re-make Ashcraft, but it apparently is not. The slider on its own may be a great pitch, but the arsenal leaves a lot to be desired. In my opinion, Ashcraft needs a pitch to back righties off the plate inside. It could be his sinker, but that's not a particularly good pitch and he rarely uses it. Without another swing-and-miss offering or a better pitch to throw inside to righties, I think Ashcraft may continue to struggle a bit versus righties, and given his poor home park, that makes me think his ceiling is capped. 

Tyler Mahle - Re-vamped Slider and Split-Change

Ah, Tyler Mahle and his slider. Back in 2020, we fell in love with the slider when Mahle first re-introduced it, and it registered a .180 average against, a 19.4% SwStr%, and a 41.2% whiff rate. Then he started throwing a harder slider, upping the velocity from 83.1 mph to 87.1 mph and taking away some of the movement, almost making it a cutter or gyro slider.

The pitch struggled with just an 11.3% SwStr%, and he went back to a slower slider in 2022, but he clearly didn't feel comfortable with the pitch, using it only 11.7% of the time and struggling to limit hard contact, allowing a 9.1% barrel rate.

So this offseason, Mahle went to Driveline in order to get back the feel for his slider.

As the tweet above explains, Mahle's goal was to create a version of the slider that was more impactful against right-handed pitchers since, like Ashcraft, he had been a bit of a reverse-splits pitcher.

Mahle added more movement to the slider overall, creating a sharper break down-and-away from righties to make it more of a swing-and-miss pitch. So far this year, he's throwing it almost exclusively to righties (55 of 58 total sliders), but it's registered just a 27.3% whiff rate.

However, it has an improved 15.5% SwStr% and does appear to be limiting hard contact with no barrels allowed and a -17.7 launch angle allowed. It also has a .181 xBA after allowing a .295 xBA in 2022 and a .264 xBA in 2021.

However, if the plan was to create more separation between the slider and four-seam in order to have the four-seam play up, that hasn't worked. Mahle has almost cut out his cutter, which means he's attacking righties with a four-seam/slider combination; yet, the four-seam has just a 17% whiff rate, .259 xBA, and career-low 6.8% SwStr%.

Now it's early for all of this, and the logic of adding movement on the slider to build more separation with the four-seam to fastball-up and slider-down approach makes sense. However, Mahle has never missed many bats with his four-seam, and I'm not sure that's going to change all of the sudden.

However, the changes to the grip of the split-change, as mentioned in the tweet, were designed to give Mahle a bit more drop but a much better feel of the pitch. So far, that has borne out, as the split is posting a career-high 41.7% whiff rate and an improved zone rate.

I like the sweeper itself through two starts, but unless he cuts out more than a few of these other pitches and remakes his arsenal entirely, I'm just not sure you're going to get anything worth chasing here.

VERDICT: NOT IMPACTFUL. Yet.

So far, righties are still hitting .375 off of Mahle with a .531 SLG, while lefties are hitting .100 with a .100 SLG. So the logic of the plan with the slider makes sense, but, in practice, it has not made Mahle better against right-handed hitters or more of a strikeout pitcher through two starts. Of course, it's two starts, and I believe in the thought process that fueled Mahle's offseason work, so I think he should, at worst, be on your bench to see if he starts to get more comfortable with the new slider in his next few starts.

MacKenzie Gore - Curve

We had to stop this from just being the slider article, so we'll end with Gore, who has a new curveball that's over two mph harder and has about seven inches less vertical movement.

With Gore being primarily a fastball, curveball, and changeup pitcher, the curveball having less movement is an interesting decision because it means that Gore essentially works up and down in the zone but not so much in and out.

On the surface, I'm not sure I understand the idea of creating less of a velocity gap with the fastball and ALSO less of a movement gap. However, the results have been there for far for Gore. The curve is allowing just a .111 BAA (.126 xBA) and .111 SLG (.189 xSLG) with no barrels and a 24.5% SwStr%. That's pretty damn good.

And the truth is, Gore needs it because his slider has still been pretty bad. It wasn't a particularly good pitch and it's been rough to start the year with a .333 BAA (.313 xBA), .583 SLG (.628 xSLG), and 12.5% barrels allowed. His 16.4% SwStr% on the slider is about league average (and better than Ashcraft), but when hitters do make contact, it's damaging.

If Gore doesn't have the curve working, he basically has an average fastball and a hittable slider, so there is not much cushion. This is why Gore having just a 35.8% zone rate on the curve is worrisome. How effective can the pitch remain if he can't show that he can consistently throw it for strikes?

VERDICT: IMMENSELY IMPACTFUL

As I just went over, if Gore doesn't have his curve working, he just doesn't seem like a solid MLB pitcher, much less a fantasy baseball asset so this is impactful in the sense that it keeps him in the conversation. The curve has performed great to start the year, despite the issues with control, so if he continues to get comfortable with the pitch and the effectiveness remains, then Gore will likely remain a rosterable pitcher that will be prone to blow-up starts.

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