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Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) evaluates starting pitcher matchups for widely available pitchers that managers can target to boost their staff moving into the fantasy baseball playoffs.
Ah, September. The seasons begin to change, kids are back in school, and football begins to dominate the sports landscape. Despite pigskin news picking up, it is also the best (or worst for those who missed the playoffs) time of year for America's pastime. Fantasy baseball playoffs are here for most leagues, and now more than ever is the time for managers to make key additions to their pitching staffs to fight for a championship.
September represents ample opportunity for savvy fantasy roster additions with MLB rosters expanding. With only a few starts left for pitchers before the end of the fantasy season, not only is a pitcher's performance a key consideration but also each pitcher's matchups to finish the fantasy season. A middling pitcher with great matchups may mitigate risk more than an above-average pitcher who faces tough opponents during the remainder of the year.
Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) takes a look at the current pitchers <40% owned in most leagues, highlighting those who face weaker opponents down the stretch. Depending on league size and format, these pitchers can be targeted as streamers or rostered for the remainder of the season in deeper leagues. These rankings assume a five-man rotation and two more weeks remaining in the fantasy season for predicting the remaining opponents for each pitcher.
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Fantasy Playoff Starting Pitcher Adds
All of the pitchers below profile for three more starts over the next two weeks. Managers should track each start for any pitcher they are targeting and be prepared for any changes to pitching rotations that teams may make down the stretch. The arms highlighted below profile as average to above-average pitchers with a majority of friendly matchups to finish the fantasy season. Most importantly, these are pitchers who are widely available in fantasy leagues.
Kyle Harrison - San Francisco Giants (35% owned)
Kyle Harrison has come out swinging since being promoted to the MLB a few weeks ago. Concerns are evergreen regarding his control given a BB% above 10% throughout his minor league career. However, it is hard to find anyone with greater upside at this point in the season who also remains this widely available.
Harrison faces the Padres next who have a middle-of-the-pack .338 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. This is followed by the Rockies (in San Francisco) and Guardians who hold a .289 and .284 wOBA against lefties, respectively. Those three starts make for the lowest average wOBA of any pitcher on or considered for this list.
Furthermore, Harrison boasts an eye-popping 40.0 K%. While that number is unsustainable, Harrison has been a strikeout-forward pitcher throughout the minor leagues and does back up that number with a dominant 38.5 CSW%. Harrison is going to produce strikeouts.
He is pitching for a competitive Giants club fighting to keep a wildcard spot. He has shown above-average control so far, his only real knock to this point. Managers in most leagues should pick him up, and at most sit him for his Padres matchup, but then watch him dominate two of the worst teams against lefties in the MLB thereafter.
Griffin Canning - Los Angeles Angels (25% owned)
Griffin Canning pitches for a team that went "all in" for about a month this year. With Shohei Ohtani unable to pitch and multiple solid players being put on waivers shortly after acquiring them, the Angels have given up on 2023. This limits Canning's win potential, but this is mitigated to a good extent by his matchups, which are likely to benefit him in all categories.
Canning is lined up to face the lowly Athletics today, who hold a .292 wOBA against right-handed pitchers, followed by the Guardians with a .307 wOBA. He does finish the fantasy season with a matchup against the Mariners, who hold a decent .327 wOBA against righties.
With those weak matchups, Canning is worth a flier for the coming week or so. If he performs and managers are in need, the tougher decision will be that Mariners matchup, informed by how he does in the next two starts. Canning does hold an above-average 26.5 K%, which can add to his upside, particularly in points leagues. Pick him up as a streamer for either of his next two matchups, and those in deeper leagues without other options can start him the rest of the way.
Bryan Woo - Seattle Mariners (35% owned)
How many Ric Flair references can one writer make? The urge was hard to resist. Anyway, Bryan Woo has had a better year and boasts better peripheral stats than Canning, and has less control risk than Harrison. Unfortunately, he has a tough road ahead compared to those guys.
He will face a mediocre Mets squad with a .317 wOBA against righties, but follow that with a tough matchup against the Rays with a .338 wOBA. He finishes against an Angels team with a .326 wOBA. Between those three teams, he faces an average .327 wOBA combined, with only Gavin Williams and Christopher Sanchez facing a tougher stretch.
Woo continues to flash his strikeout potential with a solid 25.3 K% and pitches for a burgeoning Mariners club with solid hype heading into the fantasy and MLB playoffs. His 3.79 FIP leads this list for anyone with a decent sample size; Mason Miller and Kyle Harrison technically have a lower number in a handful of starts. In isolation, Woo might be the best pitcher on this list, but his matchups cause a bit more cause for concern than the two names above.
Kutter Crawford - Boston Red Sox (25% owned)
Kutter Crawford embodies the word "average". Sometimes "average" is a good thing, especially when mitigating risk in fantasy baseball. The fantasy baseball playoffs are no time to take a flier on someone with scary matchups that could blow up ratio categories and ruin a tight weekly competition.
Kutter holds a 4.08 ERA with a 4.07 FIP, so managers can feel confident that what has been seen so far is what we will see moving forward. His 24.0 K% is enough to contribute to the strikeout category and he pitches for a Red Sox club that still has a bit of life left in them for a potential wild card spot.
He will face off against a Rays club next that holds an above-average .338 wOBA against righties. After that, he will finish the fantasy season with the lowly Yankees and a mediocre Blue Jays squad, who hold a .297 and .321 wOBA against righties, both well below average. The start against the Rays is one to watch carefully, but Crawford could be a key addition for those last two starts, lining up to be a two-start pitcher in what is championship week for many leagues.
Reid Detmers - Los Angeles Angels (30% owned)
Reid Detmers boasts a solid 26.2 K%, and that upside is one of the main reasons he is perpetually on lists like this. That number puts him third on this list, behind only Canning and the small sample size of Harrison. His 9.8 BB% belies some control issues, and often Detmers hits a dead end when getting to the third time through the order, sometimes limiting his win upside due to early pulls from the mound.
He lines up to face the Orioles next with an average .329 wOBA against lefties, and after that Detmers will finish the fantasy season against Cleveland and Detroit, both of whom have sub-.300 wOBA. Managers will have a tough decision with the Orioles matchup, but after that, Detmers' schedule is as juicy as any pitcher out there. Managers with an extra bench spot can pick him up now, and if he remains available going into his next start he is definitely worth an add for those final two starts.
Clarke Schmidt - New York Yankees (35% owned)
Clarke Schmidt lines up against Detroit, Boston, and Pittsburgh in his next three starts. The Red Sox are still holding on in the playoff mix and that middle matchup might be worth avoiding. Detroit's .294 wOBA against righties and the Pirates' .308 wOBA are both ripe for exploitation.
Schmidt's 4.27 FIP is unlikely to help managers' ratios in most settings and the Yankees are largely out of playoff contention, but for at least two of his remaining starts, he should be on the streaming radar in deeper leagues and points leagues.
The Other Guys: Best Left on the Waiver Wire
Whether it be tough matchups, poor performance, or both, the hurlers below carry significant risk and should be avoided outside of those in deep leagues or in need of specific categories.
Logan Allen - Cleveland Guardians (35% owned)
Being more than ten games out of a wildcard slot, the Guardians are gearing up for 2024. This will limit the win potential for Logan Allen and his teammate Gavin Williams below. Allen will likely face the Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, and San Francisco Giants to finish the fantasy season, all of whom boast average to above-average wOBA against lefties. His 22.3 K% and 4.11 FIP are mediocre. He is unlikely to damage a fantasy squad's win chances, but equally unlikely to make a positive impact down the stretch.
Christopher Sánchez - Philadelphia Phillies (35% owned)
While Christopher Sánchez's skill is above-average and in isolation he should be an arm to watch, his matchups are just too daunting to really consider him for a playoff push. He will face the Padres, Braves, and Cardinals down the stretch of the fantasy playoffs, who combined hold an average .346 wOBA against lefties like Sanchez.
That is significantly higher than the opponent's wOBA for any other pitcher on this list. Look elsewhere in all but the most dire situations. Managers should not start anyone but their aces against the Braves if they want to preserve ratios. They are having a historic year at the plate.
Gavin Williams - Cleveland Guardians (40% owned)
Gavin Williams suffers from a combination of the two problems mentioned above. He pitches for a Guardians team that is playing for 2024 and he faces three teams that have hit relatively well against righties - the Twins, Angels, and Rangers.
Those three teams produce an average .330 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Further clouding the picture is a leg injury of unclear severity. If managers are solely in need of strikeouts and the injury is resolved, Williams could be used for a spot start in deep leagues. Short of that, he is more likely to hurt than help.
Kyle Hendricks - Chicago Cubs (40% owned)
Kyle Hendricks may score a win here and there simply because the Cubs are fighting to keep their wildcard spot. His 3.87 FIP is good for fourth on this list, and third if Mason Miller is removed due to the small sample size. Unfortunately, Hendricks has a minuscule 16.2 K%, the lowest on this list.
His upcoming start against the Giants may be worth a stream in deeper leagues given their .308 wOBA against righties, but Hendricks finishes the fantasy season with two matchups against the Diamondbacks. The Dbacks are fighting for that same wildcard spot and boast an average .326 wOBA against righties. Without strikeout upside, Hendricks is not worth any sort of risk.
Brandon Williamson - Cincinnati Reds (25% owned)
Brandon Williamson will make what looks like his last start of the fantasy season against a sad Mets squad with a .308 wOBA against lefties. That matchup could be worth a stream, but the Cubs and Cardinals before that carry significant risk. Playing for the Reds creates an opportunity for wins, but 4.51 FIP and 21.3 K% do not provide much upside beyond that.
Josiah Gray - Washington Nationals (30% owned)
Josiah Gray, like Detmers, is a name that seems to pop up in waiver wire and similar articles over and over again, at least in 2022. Gray seems to have taken a bit of a step back this year, with a dip in K% from 23.7% to 19.7%. His 4.94 FIP makes him one of the riskiest names for ratios on this list.
He does have relatively light matchups with the Marlins and the Mets, bookending a tough meeting with the Dodgers in the middle. Those first two matchups could be a streaming opportunity in the deepest points leagues, but the Dodgers are not recommended even for the boldest managers. Managers should avoid Gray if looking to keep their ratios out of the stratosphere.
Jameson Taillon - Chicago Cubs (30% owned)
Like his buddy Hendricks above, the Cubs squad behind him is fighting to retain a wild card spot and thus will be working their hardest to produce wins. Although Jameson Taillon has a 20.3 K%, higher than Hendricks, that is still below average. Couple that with an unsightly 4.68 FIP and Taillon is best avoided for the remainder of the year. A team with something to play for does not outweigh poor pitching performance.
On the Shelf: IL Arms Who Can Make an Impact
These two gentlemen are likely to return in the next couple of weeks and could be sneaky adds if they immediately return to full starting pitcher duties.
Mason Miller - Oakland Athletics (15% owned)
Managers will be hard-pressed to find someone with as much upside as Mason Miller at such low ownership. He has essentially completed his rehab assignment and activation from the IL is imminent. He has yet to fully stretch out in his rehab starts, but there's a fair chance he can qualify for a win in his first outing, and certainly in any outings to follow. Without knowing the exact activation timeline, it is hard to predict his matchups, but the underlying potential outweighs all but the most risky opponents.
The Rangers, Astros, and Padres lie ahead, but of all of the available Athletics pitchers, Miller is the only one to watch. Miller has been topping out over 100mph frequently in his rehab starts and was flashing dominance before injury. Managers with an IL spot should add him now, and even those without should keep an eye on his activation and matchups.
John Means - Baltimore Orioles (15% owned)
The international (or Baltimore) man of mystery, John Means seems primed for an imminent return. However, the trouble is knowing what his role will be. There is mention of a bullpen role to start. While he ultimately will return to a starting role, this could be after the fantasy baseball season, too late to benefit managers. Means is worth keeping on the radar, and if news comes out that he is starting in the next couple of weeks, take a flier on him.
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