A Year To Forget: Pitchers Who Will Rebound In 2022

January 8, 2022

Justin Dunbar examines starting pitchers coming off disappointing seasons that could bounce back strong in 2022 for fantasy baseball.

When you draft a pitcher onto your fantasy baseball team, you are hoping they can be a stable source of production. Unfortunately, for these five pitchers, that was not the case. All of them struggled mightily, with four of the five even being either demoted to the minor leagues or the bullpen at one point of the season.

Fortunately for these five pitchers, 2022 is a new year. Even though their overall ERA from last year wouldn't suggest it, all of them have the potential to bounce back and be the pitchers we thought they would be last season.

So, who are these five pitchers, and why are they going to bounce back? Let us take a closer look!

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Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Dodgers

Considering he had a 5.83 ERA last season, it may have surprised you that Heaney was able to sign for $8.5 million with the Dodgers. However, they clearly see the illustrious potential that has yet to be maximized thus far.

For his career, Heaney's 4.72 ERA vastly exceeds his 3.91 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). The main issues? A batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP) over .300 the past three years in addition to a career 15.9% home run/fly ball rate. By simple regression, you wouldn't expect him to allow 2.01 HR/9 again and an 18.1% home run/fly ball rate.

Based on SIERA (3.84) and K-BB ratio (3.66), which are the most predictive statistics for future ERA, Heaney had a productive year last year. That being said, the problems giving up hard contact, specifically home runs, don't appear to be a complete fluke. That's where Los Angeles can help him. Last year, Heaney threw his fastball 59.4% of the time in addition to his changeup 18% of the time.

Yet, it has been his curveball (.268 wOBA, 35.1% whiff) that has been his top pitch. Meanwhile, he could afford to throw less fastballs over the heart of the plate:

With the Dodgers, I think we see Heaney decrease his fastball usage in addition to shifting towards more of a two-pitch pitcher. Also, I believe he'll be told to throw less fastballs in the zone, minimizing the amount of hard contact he allows. The Dodgers are a progressive organization, so if they are going to guarantee him $8.5 million, they must be very confident last year's struggles are behind him. Even if not, simple regression should allow him to be significantly more effective than last year. When all else fails, trust the K-BB ratio. That is what I am doing there, and I advise you to do the same.

Jose Quintana, Pittsburgh Pirates

Last season, Heaney and Jose Quintana, the latter of whom was signed for $8 million in the previous offseason, were supposed to help provide stability to the Angels' rotation. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Quintana posted an 8.23 ERA in 10 starts as an Angel, and finished with a 6.43 ERA overall for the season. Yet, there is a lot that still has me optimistic.

For starters, Quintana's 28.8% strikeout rate was encouraging; it was a 14.7% walk rate, a .426 BABIP, and a 1.54 HR/9 that did him in. Luckily, all of these numbers can be expected to regress over time. Command can be very fluky, and it's hard to trust walk numbers in just 10 starts. The same goes for the BABIP and HR/9, which are out of line with Quintana's career norms. In fact, with a 3.96 FIP between 2017 and 2019, Quintana's track record suggests he's a relatively steady middle-of-the-rotation starter.

In Pittsburgh, Quintana should be granted the opportunity to be a starter again. If so, it's a nice bounce-back spot for him. The Pirates stadium, PNC Park, is the third-most friendliest park for pitchers when it comes to preventing home runs, and the line drive rate (29%) allowed should regress, leading to more batted-ball success. He's not a pitcher with the highest of ceilings, but as a flyer in one of the last rounds, depending on the length of your draft, he can offer quality production at the cheapest price. If that sounds appealing, go for it!

Jesus Luzardo, Miami Marlins

Heading into the season, Jesus Luzardo was expected to be the next future ace of the Oakland A's. Now, he finds himself as a member of the Marlins. So, what went wrong? After a tough stint in Oakland that included a 6.87 ERA and a demotion to both the minor leagues and the bullpen, Luzardo was traded to Miami for outfielder Starling Marte.

In the eyes of many, this was a nice "fresh beginning" for Luzardo. Unfortunately, it didn't come to fruition immediately with a 6.44 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Yet, Luzardo made some changes in Miami that have him set up for success in the future. See, the 24-year-old's sinker (.421 wOBA) and fastball (.454 wOBA) are both inferior pitches that got absolutely hammered last season. On the other hand, his secondaries - his curveball (42.4% whiff) and changeup (35%) - are much better offerings that he should rely on moving forward. Apparently, the Marlins agreed:

• With Oakland: 59.2% Fastball, 21.1% Breaking Ball, 19.3% Changeup
• With Miami: 46.4% Fastball, 33.4% Breaking Ball, 20.2% Changeup

Immediately, we saw Luzardo's swinging strike rate (13.7%) improve when in Miami. However, he struggled with his command, which led to it not translating to a superb strikeout rate (22%) in addition to posting a poor walk rate (12.1%). Yet, wouldn't you expect that with a notable change in his pitch arsenal? Throughout his professional career, Luzardo has had no trouble walking batters, and with a full offseason to embrace the tweak to his arsenal, I expect improved command next year. If so, the ceiling is through the roof. Right now, there is little risk attached with drafting Luzardo but the upside of a high-end starter. I advise you to take that chance.

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians

Similarly to Jesus Luzardo, Triston McKenzie has been seen as a future frontline starter for some time now. That sentiment only grew stronger after he posted a 3.24 ERA in 33.1 innings in the shortened 2020 season. Since he passed his first test at the major league level, all signs for him would be pointing up, right? Sadly, no.

The first half of the 2021 season was an absolute disaster for McKenzie. Not only did he post a 5.47 ERA, but he experienced a complete lack of command with an 18.9% walk rate, and was demoted to the minor leagues. All in all, it looked like a lost season for the 24-year-old.

Then, McKenzie was recalled back from the minors, and suddenly, found his control. His decrease in walk rate (18.9% to 6.4%) was the greatest of any pitcher from the first half to the second half, while he lowered his SIERA to a very respectable 4.14. The strikeouts weren't quite there, but McKenzie was finally peppering the zone, and as a result, he lowered his WHIP (1.40 to 1.03) significantly.

So, what caused McKenzie's suddenly improved command? In my opinion, this came from an increase in confidence stemming from a velocity increase to his fastball:

• April: 91.2 MPH (42.1% Zone)
• May: 91.5 MPH (44.7% Zone)
• July: 92.8 MPH (54.8% Zone)
• August: 92.8 MPH (59.2% Zone)
• September: 92.4 MPH (59.3% Zone)

As long as McKenzie's velocity sticks as it should, we should continue to see him throw strikes at the efficient rate he was in the second half. If so, he can very well be a pitcher who posts a sub 4.00 ERA in addition to an above-average WHIP and K-BB numbers. That sounds enticing to me!

Eduardo Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers

Changing teams has been a popular theme on this list, and Eduardo Rodriguez is no exception. After signing a five-year, $77 million contract with the Tigers, Rodriguez will be expected to be a frontline starter, a la a "Steady Eddy" for a youthful pitching staff.

At first glance, this contract may seem odd for a pitcher who just posted a 4.74 ERA. However, times have changed. Rodriguez's underlying numbers, such as his 3.32 FIP and 3.65 SIERA, all pointed to him being a very productive pitcher last year, but the ERA does not line up. Why? Good ol' BABIP. Rodriguez's .363 BABIP allowed was a career high by a significant amount, and there's no a true reason for it. His batted-ball data allowed is about standard for the average pitcher, as was his line drive rate (24.9%) allowed.

Moving from Boston, a hitters-friendly park with suspect defense at shortstop with Xander Bogaerts, to Detroit, an incredibly-pitchers friendly ballpark with Javier Baez as his shortstop, will be a very nice transition. Plus, with less baseballs finding holes, Rodriguez's WHIP should decrease, as will the number of pitches he throws per innings. Thus, you should get more volume than the 157.2 innings he threw in 2021. For perspective, he threw 203.1 innings in 2019, and has made over 30 starts in consecutive seasons. Add in the fact that he's further removed from a heart condition related to the COVID-19 virus, and he should be his best self in 2022. The Tigers are paying him to be that, and in my opinion, you should employ the same amount of trust in your fantasy drafts!

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