One More Chance: Pitchers Primed for Comebacks After Injury

March 19, 2020

Michael Simione (SP Streamer) analyzes starting pitchers coming off injury who may be ready to contribute in 2020 for fantasy baseball owners. These SP could be undervalued draft targets.

Too often players come off of seasons riddled with injuries and are forgotten in fantasy drafts. This is something drafters should always look into because forgotten players equal value on draft day.

Not only that but injuries can often frighten people from drafting a player regardless of their skill set. The pitchers below barely played in 2019 due to injuries and could provide a lot of draft day value, especially with the extra time to heal.

One thing to note is always to make sure you have a solid foundation around these players because while their ceilings are high, their floors could be just as low.

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Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros

Lance McCullers was a young pitcher on the rise before getting injured and needing Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, McCullers did not pitch at all in 2019 and he should be limited to around 120 innings pitched, but with his skill set, he could still become a valuable asset for 2020. What makes McCullers so lethal is his impressive arsenal, so let us dive in.

McCullers mainly relies on three pitches which are a curveball, sinker, and changeup. Something to note here is that all of these numbers are from the 2018 season.

Curveball

This is by far McCullers' best pitch and also his most-used pitch. In 2018, the pitch produced a 43.6 O-Swing%, 40.0 Zone%, and 17.6 SwStr%. You might not remember, but in the 2017 playoffs McCullers threw his curveball something like 20 times in a row to the Yankees and they literally couldn’t touch it. This pitch is beyond lethal and one of the best in the league. 

Lance McCullers curveball. Ask the Yankees https://t.co/3PM2HMSUiu pic.twitter.com/tnsWXjdxQN

— #SIUEFA (@RyneNolen12) March 5, 2020

Sinker

This pitch is rather mediocre numbers-wise as it had a .252 batting average against, .347 wOBA, and 132 wRC+. Not terrible but not great either and there is definitely room for some improvement as the pitch has a hard horizontal break to it. This pitch is key to McCullers as he can rely on it to throw for strikes with a 54.6 Zone% and he also knows how to utilize it well (4.8 pVAL).

Changeup

This is McCullers’ main swing-and-miss pitch as he barely throws it in the zone but creates a ton of whiffs putting up a 20.8 SwStr%. Hitters struggled to face this pitch as they only produced a .136 average, .045 ISO, and 21 wRC+ against it. 

McCullers arsenal hits on all avenues, a pitch he can throw for strikes, a pitch to create swings and misses, and a pitch that is devastating all around. If you build a solid high floor rotation early on in drafts you can certainly afford to roster McCullers despite the innings limit. 

ATC Projections: 129 innings pitched, 3.83 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP.

Corey Kluber, Texas Rangers

Corey Kluber had a lost 2019 season due to a broken arm and then with an internal oblique strain. At age 33 and with a diminishing sinker, a lot of fantasy baseball players are shying away from the 2018 CY Young winner. Honestly, you shouldn’t be looking the other way and it all begins with his pitching repertoire.

Corey Kluber has some nasty stuff ? pic.twitter.com/mEQ9zfBQyr

— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) February 19, 2020

Sinker

In 2018, his sinker was by far his worst pitch and it only seemed to be getting worse in his short playing stint in 2019. In 2018, it posted a 2.7 SwStr%, 6.1 Barrel%, and terrible .406 xwOBAcon. The thing is, Kluber’s sinker was never that good and he flourishes off his breaking balls so this shouldn’t be a big worry of ours. 

Cutter

This was Kluber’s second most-used pitch in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, this pitch produced a 45.3 O-Swing%, 51.8 Zone%, and 15.7 SwStr%, hitting every mark you would love to see. The 15.9 pVAL shows how well he utilizes it; he loves to place it high in the zone causing hitters to change eye level compared to his slider. Overall, it's an awesome pitch and hopefully, he uses it more in 2020.

Slider

This is quite an amazing pitch and by far his best pitch in 2018. Just like his cutter, it hits on all cylinders with a 47.0 O-Swing%, 41.5 Zone%, and 19.8 SwStr%.  Two put into perspective how much hitters struggle against this pitch, its wRC+ against in 2018 was negative five, yes negative five. Hitters can’t touch this pitch and it’s what makes Kluber, Kluber. Something to note is his slider has an insane horizontal break and some sites classify it as a curveball while others a slider. 

Four-Seam/Changeup

Kluber also sprinkles in a four-seam fastball and changeup but uses both less than 10% of the time. Both are decent but are not a staple in his pitch mix.

Sure, Kluber is 33 and his sinker isn’t the best but he never needed it in the past. We have to remember we are only one year removed from a Cy Young season where he put up 20 wins with a 2.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Just listen to the clip below where his Jeff Mathis talks about him. Overall, the upside is tremendous here and he is well worth the risk based on his ADP.

ATC Projections: 173 innings pitch, 3.99 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.

#Rangers Jeff Mathis is looking forward to catching Corey Kluber in 2020.@Rangers pic.twitter.com/lpr6Ay0Nn5

— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) January 10, 2020

Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees

With the recent news about Luis Severino and James Paxton, Jordan Montgomery will certainly be in the Yankees rotation for at least half of a season. Montgomery was actually out most of 2018 and 2019 due to Tommy John surgery so we have to look back at 2017 to see what kind of pitcher he is. 

Curveball

This is Montgomery’s bread and butter as it is his most-used pitch in 2018. It held an impressive 42.8 K% and 19.1 SwStr% showing how well he can create strikeouts with his curveball. What about when hitters did connect with the pitch? Hitters had a measly .276 slugging, .104 ISO, and 42 wRC+ when facing this pitch. Expect him to throw this often and to continue having success with it.   

Sinker

In 2017, his sinker was by far his worst pitch as it hitters had a .386 batting average against it., while also producing a .453 wOBA and 200 wRC+ versus this pitch. The good thing is in 2018, in the time he pitched, he lowered its usage from 23.4% in 2017 to 16.11% in 2018. If Montgomery can stay off this pitch it would be ideal.

Four-Seam

The SwStr% was a tad low at 5.6% in 2017 but he really uses this pitch to get strikes when he is behind in the count. It was for the most part average in 2017 but there might be some development here. So far in spring training his four-seam has been sitting at 93/94 MPH while in 2017 it was averaging 91/92 MPH. Velocity does great things to fastballs especially when it comes to movement, this is something we need to keep an eye on.

Changeup

This is Montgomery’s third most used pitch and it has a really nice 10 MPH difference from his four-seam fastball. Back in 2017 his changeup really showed how it can be a great weapon for Montgomery as he utilizes it in counts very well and produced a 5.4 pVAL.   

Slider

The slider is the fifth and final pitch in his arsenal. He uses it to get hitters to chase and to create swings and misses, which shows with the low Zone% of 35.5 and above-average SwStr% of 18.2%. When Montgomery is ahead in the count he loves to go to this pitch and it shows that he really has a great pitch mix going for him.

Montgomery is a pitcher who is going late in drafts with a deep arsenal and has a spot in a rotation backed by one of the best lineups in the league. If you have the chance jump on Montgomery and reap the benefits.

ATC Projections: 126 innings pitched, 4.40 ERA, and 1.34 WHIP.

David Price, Los Angeles Dodgers

David Price only accumulated 107.1 innings in 2019 due to a trip to the injured list. He had an ongoing wrist issue that he just couldn’t seem to shake off. Price was recently traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers who always seem to get the most out of their pitchers. How about we dive into his pitches a little to get an idea of what he brings to the table.

David Price is good. pic.twitter.com/cVsngutLMM

— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) March 7, 2020

Sinker

This pitch doesn’t look great on the surface but was clearly very unlucky last year, something you will see is a trend with his pitches. Price’s sinker last year posted a .282 batting average against but it came with a high .360 BABIP. It also posted a .440 wOBAcon paired with a .402 xwOBAcon, again showing us it was unlucky. Expect the 2018 version of this pitch where it posted a .173 batting average against.

Changeup

Price’s changeup has always been his go-to strikeout pitch. Last year it impressed with a 44.1 O_Swing%, 40.7 Zone%, and 18.9 SwStr%. The only issue with his changeup is when hitters did make contact they hit it hard, in 2019 it had a 9.5 Barrel% while the league average was 5.5%. Something to keep an eye on but not a major concern if he keeps missing bats.

Four-Seam

His four-seam fastball isn’t super flashy but it creates a lot of weak contact. It only gives up a 6.0 Barrel% and 15.0 HR/FB plus a 43.3 GB%, those are all well above average. This pitch is key to Price because he can throw it for strikes when he needs to and he knows if hitters to catch up to it they won’t punish him. 

Cutter

This was another pitch of Price’s that seemed to get unlucky last year. Its wOBAcon of .439 came with an xwOBAcon of .369 while its .250 batting average against was paired with a high .390 BABIP. It would be a safe bet for this pitch to provide better results in 2020.

A fun fact about Price is that he has never had above a four ERA when he has pitched over 150 innings. His ERA of 4.28 last year came with a 3.62 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, and 3.85 SIERA showing that positive regression is coming. With Price now healthy and in a new environment we can expect a major comeback season.

ATC Projections: 150 innings pitched, 3.78 ERA, and 1.20 WHIP.

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