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Michael Simione looks at starting pitchers who will see a fantasy baseball value increase thanks to the delayed start to the 2020 MLB season.
Unfortunately, we all know by now that the MLB season will be delayed or maybe even worse, canceled. There are without a doubt more important things in life than sports and one of them is health. The decision the MLB commissioner made was certainly the right one. But why do we all love baseball and fantasy baseball? Because they are an escape from everything going on in our lives!
That being said this article is meant as a distraction from everything around us. With the delayed season we have to think about who benefits from this when it comes to our fantasy baseball teams.
Below are two sets of pitchers listed who should benefit from the late start. One grouping is the pitchers who had innings limits coming into 2020 and now will pitch as much as everyone else. The second is the pitchers who were injured and now have more time to heal.
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Innings Limits
Jesus Luzardo, Oakland Athletics
Jesús Luzardo, back to back Disgusting Changeups ✝??
[Even more disgusting than this awful camera angle. ?] pic.twitter.com/Qb7nsEBux4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 1, 2020
Before the MLB season delay came to fruition Jesus Luzardo was looking at pitching about 150/160 innings max. Now with the delayed start and likely only half of a season, we will see Luzardo pitch for the entire year. Luzardo has an electric fastball/curveball combination where he throws in the occasional changeup. Albeit on a small sample of 53 pitches last year, his curveball produced sensational numbers putting up a -53 wRC+, .077 batting average against, and 24.5 SwStr%.
The question is how much do you move Luzardo up in your rankings? Luzardo is a highly-touted prospect who has shown a lot of upside potential. It would be smart to now move him in front of low-strikeout pitchers going ahead of him. Some examples are Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka, two pitchers who seem to have limited upside and limited strikeout potential.
A.J. Puk, Oakland Athletics
Much like Jesus Luzardo, Puk was set to make the rotation and put up about 150 innings of work. Puk was injured in spring training due to shoulder issues, which originally would have limited him to even fewer innings. Now with the delayed start, Puk should be able to heal and start once the season begins. Puk features a four-seam fastball that he throws in the high 90s and a slider that will be an elite strikeout pitch.
When it comes to rankings for Puk he certainly moves up slightly but not nearly as much as one would think. Puk still has a lot to prove and needs to grow when it comes to command. He needs to put his fastball in the top of the zone more, as he puts it at the bottom of the zone too often. Puk should be put in the top-70 range when it comes to starting pitchers.
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
Early on it was announced that Urias would make the starting rotation for the Dodgers. The limitation on his innings and what some call “Dodgeritis" was limiting his upside. Now with the shortened season, the Dodgers are going to want to win, which means Urias pitching as much as possible. Urias has a developing four-seamer that can get strikeouts as well as a lethal slider and changeup. He has a legitimate three-pitch mix and is everything you want to see in a young arm.
With the immense upside and talent of Urias, he should be moving up in draft boards. He should be moved up about ten spots and into the top 40 when it comes to pitchers.
Luke Weaver, Arizona Diamondbacks
Luke Weaver seemed to be in the middle of a breakout before an injury halted his season. In 2019 he pitched 64.1 innings in 12 starts with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. To further dive into this potential breakout let’s take a look into some underlying stats. His K-BB% went from 11.0% in 2018 to 21.2% in 2019. This was due to a large spike in strikeouts while also lowering his walk rate. He simply raised his strikeout rate by creating more swing and misses and tricking batters into chasing outside of the zone. Both of his O-swing% and SwStr% were at the highest of his career!
Weaver was projected for around 130/140 innings over a full season. While the Diamondbacks could potentially hold him back early on (maybe five innings max), he should see a good chunk of starts and have no restrictions for the majority of the season. Weaver should be put into your top-50 pitchers for 2020.
Chris Paddack, San Diego Padres
#OTD in 2019, Chris Paddack made his #MLB debut for the San Diego #Padres. He threw 7 strikeouts in 5 innings. pic.twitter.com/0j738wse7u
— PadresOnThisDay (@padresOTD) March 31, 2020
Chris Paddack took the league by storm in 2019 with his electric fastball/changeup combination. In 140.2 innings pitched he provided a 3.33 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 26.9 K%, and 0.98 WHIP. A big question coming into 2020 was how many innings would he pitch? Projections have him around 170 innings which makes sense, but now with the shortened season and with the Padres wanting to contend he should be a full go.
Paddack was already going high in drafts, as he was going as a top-15 pitcher. With a full season that price seemed to be aiming for his ceiling, but now with a likely very shortened season that price seems just about right.
Injuries
Rich Hill, Minnesota Twins
Rich Hill has been somewhat of a conversation centerpiece lately. Originally Hill was going to miss the first half of the season but with the delay, we could be seeing a full season of Hill. Hill has essentially never been a bad pitcher. In any season where he pitches at least 100 innings, his worst ERA was 3.92. That’s amazing for a pitcher who is currently going at pick 379.
Of course, the big caveat here is Hill’s health. Who is to say he will stay healthy even if it is just half a season? While the injury concerns are valid, you still won’t be risking much with a pitcher who is going that late in drafts. Push Hill up your board to around pick 300 and reap the benefits if he stays healthy.
Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians
#FantasyBaseball Spotlight:#Indians SP Mike Clevinger
Age 29 season
- 2019:
13-4
2.71 ERA
1.06 WHIP
169 K in 126 IP
Career-high 12.9 K/9
- Missed time in 2019 to back injury
- Currently rehabbing from 2/14 knee surgery
- Delay to start 2020 should allow for healthy Opening Day pic.twitter.com/OAdVIEdDbs— Corner Sports (@CornerSportsFS) March 27, 2020
Mike Clevinger was being taken as a top-five starter coming into spring training. Unfortunately, he hurt his knee which hurt his draft stock, but now with the delayed start, we will see a full season from Clevinger again. In 2019 Clevinger had increased his velocity and in 126 innings he provided an impressive 2.71 ERA with a 33.9 K%. His four-seam fastball became arguably the best in baseball.
While there is no doubt in skill here, there certainly is some worry. Clevinger seems to keep getting injured because of his violent and aggressive delivery. Will his delivery always create setbacks? This is something to keep an eye on, but everyone has injury risks and you should feel comfortable taking him as a top-10 pitcher for the upcoming shortened season.
Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
The reigning Cy Young winner underwent groin surgery in spring training and it left a lot of question marks for fantasy owners. The delayed start is exactly what Verlander needed in order to be ready for Opening Day.
On the wrong side of 30 (37), a lot of fantasy gamers were suspicious of drafting Verlander, especially as a top-five pitcher. Besides the home run issue, there haven’t been any signs of Verlander falling off that cliff. In 2019 he grabbed 21 wins while putting up a 2.58 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 30.5 K-BB%, and a 0.80 WHIP. Insane. His skill set is just so elite and he continues to have one of the best sliders in the game. Draft Verlander with confidence as a top-five pitcher and never look back.
James Paxton, New York Yankees
Without a doubt, my favorite performance from James Paxton last season pic.twitter.com/CQ1T8UEt9b
— Dillard Barnhart (@BarnHasSpoken) March 27, 2020
James Paxton is a lot like Rich Hill. He always experiences an IL stint but when he is on the mound he will post elite numbers. After a slow start last year Paxton finished the year with a 3.82 ERA in 150.2 innings pitched. On February 5th, Paxton had to have surgery to remove a cyst from his spine. Likely to miss the month of April as a result, he started to fall down draft boards quickly.
Paxton is a stud when on the mound as he sports one of the best cutters in the major leagues. His cutter in 2019 produced a 40.2 O-Swing%, 35.8 Zone%, and 20.4 SwStr%. With the great skill set and prior seasons to back it up, push Paxton back up and take him as a top-30 starter.
