RADIO
Projecting pitching performance is a never-ending cycle that is constantly changing due to a variety of factors. Pitchers are often tinkering with their pitch mix, which can sometimes unlock a new level in performance. Their velocity can go up, which adds some intrigue to their profile; or it could go down, which usually makes them less appealing and could mean an injury is in play.
Another major factor that can drastically affect a pitcher's value is when he changes teams. It's pretty obvious what happens when a pitcher goes to or leaves Colorado, but it's usually not quite that simple. A variety of circumstances come into play, such as park factors, team defense, offensive support, and organizational philosophy.
As always, many players have changed teams this off-season. In this column, we'll take a look at four pitchers that will be sporting new uniforms when play resumes, and what impact that is likely to have on their fantasy value for the 2020 campaign.
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David Price (SP, LAD)
Once a workhorse who topped 208 IP in six of seven seasons from 2010-16, Price has posted totals of 74 2/3, 176, and 107 1/3 in three seasons since. Price put up a 4.28 ERA in 2019, which was his highest of the past decade, but his underlying skills, including a career-best 28% K%, were excellent. He actually had a 3.16 ERA through 17 starts before the wheels fell off. Price made four more appearances before hitting the IL with a cyst on his wrist, and during that time, he allowed 20 earned runs in 17 innings. Perhaps the injury was affecting Price during his rough stretch, and a .469 BABIP definitely contributed to the struggles.
Price was traded from the Red Sox to the Dodgers in early February and should benefit from the move from the AL East to the NL West. He's not the workhorse he used to be- after topping 208 innings in six of seven seasons from 2010-16, Price has posted totals of 74 2/3, 176, and 107 1/3 in three seasons since. He doesn't have to be, though. The season is likely to be shorter than usual, and the Dodgers do a great job of getting the most out of their pitchers, even if it means capping their workload a bit.
Price still owns strong skills, and the move to Los Angeles looks like a great landing spot where he will get plenty of run support. His price is rising in drafts, and rightfully so, as he's a good bet to put up excellent numbers in 2020.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, (SP, TOR)
Ryu is coming off a huge 2019 season in which he posted a 2.32 ERA across 182 2/3 innings, his heaviest workload since 2013. He parlayed that success into a four-year, $80 million deal with Toronto, where he's expected to serve as the ace of the rotation.
There are a few reasons to be wary of Ryu's production carrying over into 2020, though. First of all, he hadn't even reached 130 innings in any of the previous four seasons, so he remains very risky on the health front. Even with the schedules expected to be shortened, Ryu is unlikely to hold up for the duration of the season.
Also, Ryu enjoyed much better results at Dodger Stadium the past three seasons than on the road:
During that span, Ryu's K% dropped five full percentage points in road games, from 25.6% at Dodger Stadium, down to 20.5% in all other parks. The Rogers Centre in Toronto plays more hitter-friendly, so he can't be expected to sustain the home dominance. Currently going off the board at pick 139 in NFBC drafts, as the 40th starting pitcher taken, Ryu is a little over-priced.
Dylan Bundy (SP, LAA)
Bundy has always possessed quality stuff but was never able to put it all together in Baltimore. In his three full seasons as a starter, he struck out 23.2% of the batters he faced, but an ugly 1.7 hr/9 during that time resulted in a 4.84 ERA. Though Bundy pitched half his games in a hitter-friendly park, he was equally bad at home (4.81 ERA) and on the road (4.86).
Bundy's four-seam fastball has been crushed the past two seasons, as 37 of the 70 home runs he's allowed have come off the pitch, with batters putting up a .316 BA and .288 ISO. He did shy away from the four-seamer late in the year, throwing it just 35% of the time over his final nine starts. During that span, he allowed just five home runs in 53 1/3 innings, with a 50% ground ball rate.
Bundy is far from a sure thing, as his velocity has dipped three years in a row, and he has a long history of home run problems. However, he's always missed bats at a decent clip, there's reason to believe the late-season gains can stick, and simply getting out of Baltimore adds to the appeal. With an NFBC ADP of 268, Bundy makes for an intriguing mid-round upside gamble.
Homer Bailey (SP, MIN)
It has appeared for quite some time that Bailey's days of being fantasy relevant were in the rearview, but he went on a nice little run at the end of last season that put him back on the radar. After some initial struggles following a trade to Oakland, he put up a 2.25 ERA across 48 innings in his last eight starts. During that time, he recorded a 24% SwK and 62% ground ball rate on his cutter, and his four-seam fastball was extremely effective as well.
After signing a one-year, $7 million deal with Minnesota, Bailey finds himself in a good situation for 2020. He'll have one of the top offenses in the league supporting him and will pitch roughly one-third of his games against weak AL Central offenses-the Royals, Indians, and Tigers. Bailey can't reasonably be expected to just pick up where he left off at the end of last year, but he can provide decent value at his 492 ADP, especially if you have the roster flexibility to pick your spots with him.
