RADIO
Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose WAR could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 11.
Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for the 2024 season! Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change. I have spent most of this series focusing on stats for particular aspects of performance. This week, I'll examine an all-encompassing metric for realized performance: wins above replacement (WAR).
WAR was developed to attempt to measure a player's relative value compared to a replacement-level player, or a readily-available player (think free agent). The calculation is rather complicated and is broken down with further explanation here for those who are interested. The gist of the metric is that the higher a player's WAR is, the more valuable a player they are.
Fantasy managers will need to start assessing strong and weak points on their rosters to plan for impending moves. Identifying buy-low and sell-high trade candidates can sometimes be easier with broader encompassing metrics. As such, WAR is a perfect metric to look at for Week 11!
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WAR Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 2, 2024.
Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox
5-5, 1.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 24.1% Strikeout Rate, 2.7 WAR
After several seasons of promising results early in his career, Tanner Houck has broken out as a fantasy standout this season with a stellar 1.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 6.5 IP/GS. His 2.7 WAR supports his success even further, as it is the highest mark among all qualified starting pitchers this season. How has Houck found his success and can it continue?
Tanner Houck is one of the frontrunners for AL Cy Young and I never thought I'd say that on June 1st.
2 ER or less in 9 of 12 starts
3 ER or less in 11 of 12 starts
2nd in ERA and 5th in WHIP in AL#DirtyWaterpic.twitter.com/TBrRJq6edQ— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) June 1, 2024
Houck has leaned into a groundball approach this season, relying heavily on a slider, sinker, and split-finger fastball. This has resulted in a 5.1-degree launch angle and a 54.2% groundball rate which is in the 91st percentile of baseball. He has allowed relatively hard contact with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 23rd and 21st percentiles of baseball. However, he has avoided damaging contact with a .274 BABIP because he has kept the ball on the ground.
He has focused on throwing the ball in the strike zone more, which has resulted in more contact but fewer walks. Houck's 77.2% contact rate is a career-high and is a jump above his 73.5% career mark. One good thing is it hasn't negatively impacted him because of his batted-ball profile. The other is that he has significantly cut his walks. His 4.8% walk rate is almost half of his career's 7.9% mark.
Houck's underlying numbers are all great, although there are some reasons to suspect he won't maintain such excellent numbers. He has kept the ball on the ground and has gotten a minuscule 2.0% HR/FB%. He has kept the ball on the ground throughout his career but has never gotten such a low HR/FB%. Additionally, his 3.01 SIERA and 3.36 xERA, while solid, are a good deal higher than his ERA.
Overall, Houck has gotten the most out of his pitch arsenal. He has increased the use of his splitter and has gotten a ton of groundballs. He has also thrown the ball in the strike zone more frequently, cutting his walk rate significantly. He may not end up with such stellar numbers, but he should continue to be a high-impact fantasy option.
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
6-3, 3.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 33.2% Strikeout Rate, 2.1 WAR
Tyler Glasnow has been a high-end fantasy starter on a start-by-start basis throughout his career but has never made more than 21 starts in a season. He is over halfway there and has looked as good as ever with a 3.04 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 33.2% strikeout rate in 12 starts and 74 IP. His 2.1 WAR reflects his success and shows he is still one of fantasy's highest-impact starters. Should fantasy managers be worried about him other than injuries?
A quick look through his Statcast profile shows that everything is in line for him. His expected stats are all excellent, his walk rate is above average, and his strikeout rate is top-notch. He has relied on his four-seam fastball more this season, which gets a ton of spin and has plenty of velocity at 96.3 MPH. He accompanies that with a pair of excellent breaking pitches, a curveball, and a slider with swinging-strike rates of 18.9% and 21.0%.
His batted-ball profile is slightly below average, but it hasn't impacted him since he allows such little contact at 72.2%. His .239 BABIP is much lower than his .285 career mark and slightly contradicts his batted-ball profile, so there could be some regression in that department. On the positive side, his 2.41 xERA and 2.71 SIERA suggest that he has some room to drop his peripherals.
Glasnow turned in his most complete season in 2023 and has already improved on it. He is over the 50% mark in starts made and has pitched deep into his games at over six IP/GS. He has a deadly arsenal of four-seamer, curveball, and slider which has allowed him to rack up strikeouts while avoiding contact.
Injuries are always a lingering worry for fantasy managers, so those who are concerned could attempt to sell him. However, they would have to get a great return, as Glasnow should be a top fantasy contributor every time he goes out on the mound.
WAR Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 2, 2024.
Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians
2-3, 3.77 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 21.9% Strikeout Rate, -0.3 WAR
Triston McKenzie has had a fine season on paper after returning from injury with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 21.9% strikeout rate in 11 starts and 57 1/3 IP. His -0.3 WAR tells a different story, as it is the lowest among qualified pitchers. What should fantasy managers make of this contradiction?
For starters, McKenzie's batted-ball profile is not built for success. He has allowed hard contact, with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 18th and 41st percentiles of baseball. The contact he allows is in the air with a 19.7-degree launch angle. Consequently, he has allowed a lackluster 13.9% HR/FB% and a 1.73 HR/9 rate.
His 4.89 SIERA further suggests his batted-ball profile should not yield a 3.77 ERA. It also suggests his .231 BABIP is unsustainable. McKenzie does have a career .233 BABIP, which could partly be due to the strong defense behind him. Either way, I would be surprised if he maintained such a low BABIP while giving up hard contact.
Another notable difference is the performance of his fastball. McKenzie missed most of 2023 with a right elbow sprain. While he is back and healthy, his fastball velocity is down from 92.5 MPH to 90.9 MPH. He has left the pitch in the middle of the plate too often. As such, his realized metrics on the pitch have been poor and his expected stats are even worse.
McKenzie has gotten good enough results to start the season, but he doesn't have a lot under the hood to back them up. He has allowed a lot of hard contact in the air and has seen a dip in the performance of his fastball, which is his main pitch. He is currently rostered in just 60 percent of leagues, but I would try to sell high on him if possible.
Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants
4-2, 4.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 21.3% Strikeout Rate, 0.4 WAR
Kyle Harrison has put together a successful rookie season to this point, going 4-2 with a 4.15 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 21.3% strikeout rate in 12 starts and 65 IP. He has hit a rough patch lately, compiling a 6.30 ERA in his last four starts. This may contribute to his low 0.4 WAR. Harrison is a must-roster player in dynasty leagues and keeper leagues, but what should fantasy managers do with him in re-draft leagues?
The first issue I see is that Harrison has effectively been a one-pitch pitcher. He relies heavily on his fastball at 63.9% but also has a changeup and slurve. His off-speed pitches were highly touted as a top prospect. They have not translated this season, as both pitches have gotten crushed.
His fastball has been fine, but it is not possible for a starter to find success when they only have one reliable pitch option. Harrison's batted-ball profile and expected stats overall have been dragged down because of his secondary pitches.
The other issue is that Harrison has turned in polarizing results. He has turned in four quality starts of 12. All but one of his other eight starts yielded three or four earned runs. This is frustrating for fantasy managers, as he has flashed the skills that made him a top prospect but has not been consistent with them.
“Get to 6.”
-@LoganWebb1053
-Kyle Harrison pic.twitter.com/mgmzLR7e5U— SFGiants (@SFGiants) January 28, 2024
Harrison is a tough player to gauge, as he has shown promise as a fantasy asset but has also turned in plenty of disappointing starts. Still a rookie, I think he has plenty of time to figure out his off-speed pitches, but fantasy managers may not have time to wait for him. Overall, I think Harrison is still worth holding onto in points leagues at least, but fantasy managers may consider cutting ties with him in roto leagues where they need to catch up with their ratios.
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