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Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose zone swing & miss % could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 14.
Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for Week 14 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Today we'll be taking a look at Cole Ragans, Tanner Bibee, Marcus Stroman, and Bailey Falter. Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
Last week, I investigated called + swinging strike rate (CSW%) and I'll follow that up with zone swing & miss rate. Zone swing & miss rate is an interesting metric in that it lends insight into how "overpowering" a pitcher's stuff is. Of course, getting hitters to chase out of the zone is an important skill, but being able to overpower hitters in the zone is a positive base metric for starters to build upon. Being able to do so ensures that pitchers can attack hitters without fear of allowing damaging contact, and the more strikeouts the better for fantasy purposes.
The first half of fantasy seasons is rapidly coming to a close, and some leagues may be nearing trade deadlines. Now is the time to focus on how fantasy managers can make their rotations better, and identifying pitchers who can generate swings and misses is a key way to do that. With that in mind, let's dig into some studs and duds!
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Zone Swing & Miss Rate Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 23, 2024.
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
4-5, 3.13 ERA, 28.9% Strikeout Rate, 23.0% Zone Swing & Miss Rate
Cole Ragans emerged as a potential fantasy ace last season and has continued to display those skills in 2024. The 26-year-old has a 3.13 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 28.9% strikeout rate in 16 starts and 92 innings pitched. Known for his strikeout skills, it is not surprising that his 23.0% zone swing & miss rate is the highest among qualified starters. How has Ragans found his success and can he continue to build on it?
Ragans has a strong four-seam fastball and changeup combo to generate swings and misses. He has plenty of velocity and spin on his four-seamer at 96.1 MPH and over 2,500 rotations per minute. He pairs that with a nasty changeup that has generated a 24.6% overall swinging-strike rate. He also has a useful cutter and slider, each with a swinging strike rate over 10%.
Cole Ragans, Nasty 86mph Changeup. 👌
8th K thru 4 pic.twitter.com/4osxaIJrMn
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 9, 2024
Ragans' zone swing & miss rate is so encouraging because he has gotten more swings and misses while throwing the ball in the strike zone more frequently. Walks were a concern for Ragans, but he has posted a career-high 52.0% zone rate. He has managed this by locating his pitches better within the zone. He has stayed more toward the top of the zone with his four-seamer, kept his changeup in the bottom of the zone, and painted the corners with his cutter and slider.
Ragans showed promising raw stuff last season and has shown growth as a pitcher this season. He has focused on avoiding walks and locating his pitches better when attacking the zone. His strikeout upside was never in doubt, but his focus on pitching better has been a great sign for fantasy managers. Everything points to Ragans continuing to be a top fantasy arm throughout the season.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
5-2, 3.65 ERA, 29.4% Strikeout Rate, 22.4% Zone Swing & Miss Rate
Tanner Bibee has followed up a promising rookie season with solid numbers. His ERA is higher but is still a solid 3.65 to go with an improved 1.13 WHIP and 29.4% strikeout rate in 15 starts and 81 1/3 IP. He has seen a big jump in his strikeout rate and has a 22.4% zone swing & miss rate to show for it. What should fantasy managers make of his new-found strikeout skills?
A few things stand out regarding Bibee's pitch location. First, he has located his fastball more toward the top of the zone, rather than the middle of the plate. This could be because he has gotten roughly 75 more RPM on the pitch. Either way, he has seen his zone swing & miss rate on the pitch jump from 11.2% last season to 16.3%.
He has also experienced much better results with his curveball. He doesn't throw the pitch that much, but Bibee often left the pitch in the middle of the plate last season. He has done a much better job moving the pitch around the zone this season. Consequently, his zone swing & miss rate has improved from just 6.7% to an impressive 21.6%.
Like Ragans, Bibee seems to be making tangible strides as a pitcher. He was a high-end strikeout pitcher through his minor-league career, and he seems to be carrying that over to the majors. He has done a better job locating some of his pitches in the zone and has thrown the ball in the zone more than last season, although walks were never a concern with him. With the Guardians playing surprisingly strong baseball, I like Bibee as a high-floor, high-ceiling fantasy option for the rest of the season.
Zone Swing & Miss % Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 23, 2024.
Marcus Stroman, New York Yankees
7-3, 3.15 ERA, 17.6% Strikeout Rate, 9.5% Zone Swing & Miss Rate
Marcus Stroman has put forth a solid first season with the Yankees, going 7-3 with a 3.15 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 17.6% strikeout rate in 16 starts and 91 1/3 IP. One lackluster stat is his 9.5% zone swing & miss rate, which is one of the lowest marks among qualified pitchers. Stroman has always been a pitch-to-contact pitcher, so is this something fantasy managers should be worried about?
Pitchers do not need to have strong strikeout numbers to be fantasy-relevant, and Stroman has proven that throughout his career. He has never been much of a strikeout pitcher with a career 20.0% strikeout rate and a 9.6% swinging-strike rate. He is primarily a sinker-ball pitcher who relies on contact on the ground. This gives him relatively less room for error, but he has made it work. However, there are a few concerning signs when looking under the hood for this season.
First, Stroman has not kept the ball on the ground as he typically has. His career launch angle is 3.7 degrees, but he currently has a career-high 10.3 degrees. This does not bode well when pitching his home games in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
This has partly been due to his sinker. He has done a decent job keeping the ball in the lower half of the zone, but the pitch has been located up more than it has in previous seasons. Consequently, he has allowed an eight-degree launch angle with the pitch compared to negative-one-degree last season.
He has also thrown his sinker less in favor of a cutter, which he has thrown 19.8% of the time. The peripherals on the pitch are ok, but his expected stats on the pitch are much worse. He has allowed a poor 21-degree launch angle with the pitch and has given up hard contact with it at 90.3 MPH. This seems to scream potential regression.
Overall, Stroman's low zone swing & miss rate and strikeout rate are not concerning on their own. However, the type of contact he has allowed is concerning. Stroman has been unable to keep the ball on the ground as he has for most of his career, and he hasn't allowed soft contact.
His flyball rate is a career-high 34.8%, as is his 4.79 SIERA. Stroman has been able to outperform his SIERA before due to his pitching approach, but I fear he won't be able to if he continues to allow contact in the air. As such, I consider Stroman a sell candidate for fantasy managers who are buying his peripherals at face value.
Bailey Falter, Pittsburgh Pirates
3-5, 3.74 ERA, 16.5% Strikeout Rate, 9.6% Zone Swing & Miss Rate
Bailey Falter emerged as a fantasy-relevant pitcher in 2022, regressed in 2023, and is back to relevancy this season. The 27-year-old is 3-5 with a 3.74 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 16.5% strikeout rate in 14 starts and 79 1/3 IP in his first full season with the Pirates. He has never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but his current strikeout rate is a career-low and his 9.6% zone swing & miss rate aligns with that. Can he still maintain his peripherals with this profile?
Falter's dip in strikeout rate and low zone swing & miss rate make sense given some changes he has made in his pitch usage. He has used his four-seam fastball more than ever at 51.2% and has also used his sinker more at 15.3%. Neither pitch is overpowering but is thrown in the zone often, and each has a respective 9.1% and 4.2% zone swing & miss rate. This means that a high portion of the pitches Falter has thrown are in the strike zone and are being hit.
Falter has allowed a lot of contact, and the type of contact hasn't been great. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom 30 percent of baseball. This is paired with an 18.2-degree launch angle. As such, 4.71 SIERA and 5.11 xERA are both significantly higher than his ERA. This is further reflected in most of his Stacast profile.
Similar to Stroman, Falter does not miss a lot of bats and has allowed contact that should be damaging. He has allowed a lot of hard contact in the air, yet has managed a career-low .242 BABIP and 11.4% HR/FB rate. I don't see him being able to maintain this if he continues to rely so heavily on his four-seamer and sinker. Falter is just 11 percent rostered, so it seems that fantasy managers aren't buying his success. This seems founded given his underlying metrics.
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