Pitchers Advanced Metrics Leaders for Statcast Pitch Movement Studs and Duds (Week 20)

August 6, 2024

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose pitch movment could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 20.

Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for Week 20 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Today we'll be taking a look at Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Taj Bradley, and Ronel Blanco. Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.

To this point, I have analyzed pitchers' performances in aggregate; this week, I will drill down into specific pitch movements. Different pitches are successful in different ways, but generally, the more movement a pitcher can get on a pitch, the harder it is to hit.

The fantasy trade deadline may have passed for many leagues, but fantasy managers should always be on the lookout for pitchers to claim off waivers and pitchers to drop before they get burned. Understanding what pitchers are getting out of their arsenals can offer a different perspective. To that end, let's analyze some pitch movement Studs and Duds!

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Pitch Movement Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 4, 2024.

Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (Four-Seam Fastball)

8-7, 3.36 ERA, +0.6 Vertical Inches, +5.4 Horizontal Inches

Cole Ragans burst onto the fantasy scene last season and has picked up right where he left off, going 8-7 with a 3.36 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 28.9% strikeout rate in 23 starts and 134 innings pitched. His high strikeout rate can partly be attributed to his stellar four-seam fastball, which has both above-average vertical movement (or "rise") as well as horizontal movement (or "break"). How has his fastball movement fueled his success?

First, Ragans throws the pitch with high velocity at 95.6 MPH. He also generates high spin velocity on the pitch at 2,546 rotations per minute. For a fastball, the more spin the pitch is thrown with, the flatter vertical plane it stays on. In this case, the fastball appears to "rise" to hitters because of the high spin rate. Ragans does generate above-average vertical movement with his fastball, but it is just six percent more than average.

Cole Ragans, Elevated 97mph ⛽️

5th K pic.twitter.com/jYVMJS7gLg

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 2, 2024

The really impressive part lies in his horizontal fastball movement. Ragans' delivery allows him to generate a ton of arm-side horizontal movement, making the pitch appear to be moving away from right-handed hitters. His 12.5 inches of horizontal break is 76 percent more than the league average.

His fastball has a relatively modest 10.0% swinging-strike rate, but he has gotten an excellent .206 batting average against. Further, his fastball sets up his changeup and slider perfectly (both of which have interesting pitch profiles), as both pitches have at least a 17.3% swinging-strike rate.

There are other interesting facets to Ragans' game, but the bottom line is his raw stuff is overpowering. It starts with his primary pitch, his four-seamer. The pitch is hard to make damaging contact with because it is thrown with high velocity and movement, particularly horizontal break. Ragans can pair this with his devastating off-speed pitches, keeping hitters constantly guessing.

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals (Curveball)

13-5, 2.57 ERA, +6.4 Vertical Inches, +3.8 Horizontal Inches

Seth Lugo found success as a starter with the Padres last season and has been even better this season with the Royals. The 34-year-old veteran is 13-5 with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.02 WIHP, and a 21.3% strikeout rate in 23 starts and 150 1/3 IP. He is primarily a fastball pitcher, but his curveball stands out as his main secondary pitch. He isn't an overpowering pitcher, so how does his curveball movement help him?

Before we dig into his curveball, it is worth calling out that Lugo has registered nine different pitches this season, so he brings plenty of different looks to keep hitters off balance. Unlike a fastball, the more vertical drop on a curveball, the better. Lugo has gotten plenty of vertical and horizontal movement on his curveball, generating 12 percent more drop and 36 percent more break than average.

Seth Lugo brings a scary combo of pitch repertoire and pinpoint location when he's on the bump! 👻@Royals | #Royals pic.twitter.com/zZZNjAKl6I

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 2, 2024

He has allowed hard contact with his curveball at 91.1 MPH, but he has kept the ball on the ground with a three-degree launch angle. This has minimized the damage with a .163 batting average against and a .281 BABIP. He also doesn't allow a lot of contact with the pitch, with a contact rate of just 66.4% and a career-high 16.4% swinging-strike rate.

Lugo is outperforming his overall underlying metrics. Despite mixing in so many pitches, his batted-ball profile is slightly below average and his 3.85 xERA and 3.93 SIERA indicate that he has outperformed his batted-ball profile. His .258 BABIP compared to a .283 career average also suggests he has gotten lucky.

Regardless, fantasy managers have to be thrilled with what they've gotten from Lugo, even if he were to experience some regression. He throws everything and the kitchen sink at hitters, but his curveball has been a successful main secondary pitch thanks to the overall movement it generates. In this case, fantasy managers should ride things out with Lugo and enjoy the unexpected production.

Pitch Momement Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 4, 2024.

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays (Split-Finger Fastball)

6-5, 2.71 ERA, -1.9 Vertical Inches, -0.9 Horizontal Inches

Taj Bradley has pitched like the top fantasy prospect he was a few years ago, going 6-5 with a 2.71 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 30.0% strikeout rate in 15 starts and 86 1/3 IP. One of his main pitches is his split-finger fastball, despite it being an overall "flatter" version of the pitch compared to others throughout the league. How has he found success with the pitch when it has less relative movement?

Relative deception may come into play here. Bradley's four-seam fastball comes in fast at 96.3 MPH, and while it has an above-average rise, it has a below-average break. His splitter is also thrown hard at 90.6 MPH. The deception between the two occurs once the ball leaves his hand.

Statcast's spin movement is not the most intuitive to understand and is explained here. Essentially, the spin-based movement indicates how much of a pitch's spin is coming from the pitcher and what direction that spin is. For Bradley, his four-seamer and splitter have similar spin profiles out of his hand. However, the observed movement shows how the pitch moves after it is released. Any differences between spin-based movement and observed movement can be attributed to aerodynamic forces.

For Bradley, his four-seamer and splitter look similar out of his hand but deviate in movement as they reach home plate. This could explain why Bradley has gotten just a .147 batting average against and a 15.5% swinging-strike rate with his splitter despite it having below-average vertical and horizontal movement.

Bradley presents an interesting case in which three of his four pitches are fastballs, yet he is a power strikeout pitcher. The nuances in movement between his four-seamer and splitter in particular are interesting and seem sustainable. Similar to Ragans, I think Bradley has the makings of a fantasy stud for years to come.

Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros (Slider)

9-6, 2.98 ERA, -5.8 Vertical Inches, -2.4 Horizontal Inches

Ronel Blanco has been a surprise fantasy All-Star this season, going 9-6 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 24.4% strikeout rate in 21 starts and 124 IP. He relies on three main pitches, including his slider at 32.4% usage. This is interesting, as the pitch has significantly less movement compared to the rest of the league's sliders. How has he found his success with a lack of movement?

Blanco may benefit from the same initial vs. perceived spin movement as Bradley. Both his slider and four-seamer have similar spin-based movements, but Blanco's slider has a much different observed movement. This has been enough to make the pitch successful despite a lack of relative movement, as he has generated a 17.5% swinging-strike rate and a .166 batting average against.

Ronel Blanco, White Castle Special. 🤮🍔🍔🍔 pic.twitter.com/5dNOdwsjaJ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 4, 2024

While his slider has been successful, he has certainly benefitted from good luck overall. He is a fly-ball pitcher and has done a decent job of limiting hard contact. Still, his .197 BABIP seems unsustainable. Additionally, he has allowed a lot of hard contact with his fastball and has outperformed both his expected batting average and slugging percentage with the pitch. His 3.93 xERA and 4.15 SIERA support this sentiment overall.

It isn't often that a 30-year-old experiences a breakout, but things have gone that way this season for Blanco. His slider has found great success despite a relative lack of movement and has underlying metrics to support it. His fastball, on the other hand, has conflicting underlying metrics. I do think regression could be in the cards for Blanco, but fantasy managers can't complain to this point, given how successful he has been.

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