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Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose ERA-xERA could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 19.
Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for Week 19 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Today we'll be taking a look at Blake Snell, Pablo Lopez, Reynaldo Lopez, and Tanner Houck. Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
Fantasy trade deadlines are almost here, so now is the last chance to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates. This week, I will be comparing pitchers' ERA to their expected ERA (xERA). This comparison can generally be used to find pitchers who have gotten lucky or unlucky based on their underlying performance.
Fantasy managers have difficult roster decisions to make at this point in the season and may still have time to make some final trades. Understanding how starters have pitched in comparison to their results can play a role in informing these decisions. With that in mind, let's identify some ERA-xERA Studs and Duds!
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ERA-xERA Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 28, 2024.
Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants
0-3, 5.10 ERA, 3.21 xERA, 1.89 ERA-xERA
On paper, the 2024 season has not gone the way fantasy managers were expecting for Blake Snell. The reigning National League Cy Young winner is 0-3 with a 5.10 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 30.0% strikeout rate in 10 starts and 47 2/3 innings pitched for the Giants. However, his 3.21 xERA is almost two runs lower than his ERA and is much more in line with expectations. Snell's fantasy value has been difficult to assess throughout his career, so what should fantasy managers make of him?
Fortunately, things are looking up for Snell. His Statcast profile is much better than his peripherals, with almost all of his stats better than the league average. He has done a good job limiting hard contact and has an above-average groundball rate. His batted-ball profile does not align with a .304 BABIP, so there are plenty of signs that better days are ahead.
Blake Snell has 15 strikeouts tonight, a new career high! pic.twitter.com/vBVxUiaf7p
— MLB (@MLB) July 28, 2024
Further, it looks like progression is already coming for Snell. He looked like an award winner in July, compiling a 0.75 ERA, a 0.63 WHIP, and a 35.7% strikeout rate in four starts and 24 IP. Three of those starts were quality starts, including a 15-strikeout performance in his last start. It is unreasonable to expect numbers this excellent, but they are certainly more in line with what fantasy managers were expecting.
Snell has always oscillated between a top fantasy starter and a potentially droppable player, even within the same season. This season has been no different, and fortunately, things are looking good under the hood. His underlying performance has finally started to reflect in his peripherals, and there appears to be plenty more to come. Fantasy managers who rostered Snell knew they were in for a roller coaster ride, so they should strap in and try not to react too strongly in either direction.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
9-7, 4.73 ERA, 3.42 xERA, 1.31 ERA-xERA
Pablo Lopez has not had the season fantasy managers were hoping for, compiling a 4.73 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a 27.7% strikeout rate in 21 starts and 118 IP. However, his 3.42 xERA is solid overall and is almost 1.5 runs lower than his current ERA. Will there be enough time for fantasy managers to benefit from potential progression?
Positive regression is something that has been expected of Lopez all season based on his Statcast profile. He has been at least league-average in most underlying categories. This includes both his xERA as well as his expected batting average.
One thing that does stand out is his career-high 1.45 HR/9 rate. Lopez hasn't allowed particularly hard contact, but he has allowed a career-high 15.8-degree launch angle and 38.8% flyball rate. The issue seems to be stemming from his curveball, which he has only thrown 10.7% of the time. Lopez has left the pitch in the middle of the plate too often, leading to a 90.4-MPH average exit velocity, a 50.0% flyball rate, and a massive 33.3% HR/FB rate.
Overall, Lopez has pitched much better than his ERA indicates. His underlying successes conflict with his peripherals for the most part. The one thing that stands out is issues with his curveball, which has yielded a bloated HR/FB rate.
However, even with these issues, it seems that Lopez has gotten unlucky, as his results with the pitch are much worse than his career averages. It doesn't make sense that bad luck on one of his least-thrown pitches would negatively impact him this much, so I would target Lopez as a buy-low candidate.
ERA-xERA Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 28, 2024.
Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves
7-4, 2.12 ERA, 4.32 xERA, -2.19 ERA-xERA
After years of pitching out of the bullpen, Reynaldo Lopez has found amazing success moving into the starting rotation for the Braves. The 30-year-old is 7-4 with a 2.12 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 24.2% strikeout rate in 18 starts and 101 2/3 IP. His first-half performance earned him an All-Star honor, but his 4.32 xERA suggests he could have huge regression coming his way in the second half. What should fantasy managers make of this discrepancy?
"He's the best pitcher in the league right now."
Alex Anthopoulos and the @Braves front office signed Reynaldo López in November and traded for Chris Sale in December.
Seven months later, the duo of Atlanta newcomers are headed to the MLB All-Star Game. pic.twitter.com/RRytA9lxOL
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) July 9, 2024
A few things stand out that indicate good luck for Lopez in the first half of the season. The first is his results on batted balls in contrast to his batted-ball profile. Lopez has allowed a lot of hard contact in the air. His 89.7-MPH average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate, and 9.0% barrel rate are in the 27th, 35th, and 24th percentiles of baseball. His hard contact has come with a 15.0-degree launch angle and a groundball rate in the 24th percentile of baseball.
Despite this, he has not suffered much consequence. His .289 BABIP is below league average and his 0.62 HR/9 rate and 6.5% HR/FB rate are both much lower than his 1.22 HR/9 and 10.8% HR/FB rate career averages.
Overall, Lopez has had a career season while accumulating his most IP since 2019. He has outperformed his batted-ball profile considerably, which is supported by his xERA. Even if signs weren't pointing to regression, it seems unreasonable that Lopez will be able to continue his high performance while taking on a much bigger workload than he has in several seasons. Fantasy managers should be thrilled with what they have gotten from him, but now may be the last chance to sell high.
Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox
8-6, 2.71 ERA, 3.81 xERA, -1.10 ERA-xERA
After several seasons of promising results early in his career, Tanner Houck has put together an All-Star season with a 2.71 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 22.5% strikeout rate in 20 starts and 123 IP. His 3.81 xERA, while still fine, is over one run higher than his current ERA. Should fantasy managers be worried about the second half?
Houck has allowed hard contact this season, with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both in the bottom 15 percent of baseball. However, he has kept the ball on the ground, with a career-low 4.2-degree launch angle and a 55.2% groundball rate which is both a career-high and in the 93rd percentile of baseball.
His .283 BABIP is below league average, and this has been due to keeping the ball on the ground despite hard contact. Groundball, pitch-to-contact pitchers can outperform their expected numbers if they can limit baserunners overall, which Houck has done.
He has allowed a career-high 78.7% contact rate but has such a low WHIP partly because he has avoided damage on balls in play and partly because he has avoided putting runners on for free. Houck's 5.7% walk rate is a career-low and is much lower than his 7.8% career average.
Houck's underlying numbers suggest his excellence may not carry throughout the season, but there are plenty of signs indicating he can pitch well in the second half. He has allowed hard contact but has kept the ball on the ground, limiting damaging contact. He has also stopped putting runners on for free. I think Houck will be a reliable fantasy asset down the stretch even if he does experience some regression.
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