RADIO
Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose SIERA could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 6.
Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for the 2024 season! Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change. With just about a month of data, it's time to take a first look at one of my favorite advanced metrics; skill-interactive earned run average (SIERA).
SIERA is a great metric for capturing a pitcher's independent performance. It quantifies a pitcher's performance by trying to eliminate factors the pitcher can't control on their own. Fielding-independent pitching (FIP) is a stat that also attempts to do this, but unlike FIP, SIERA considers balls in play and adjusts for the type of ball in play. The formula can be found here for those who want to get into the nitty-gritty.
SIERA is a truer indicator of a pitcher's performance than ERA or FIP and can help predict future success or failure compared to a pitcher’s current ERA. It is one of several great metrics for identifying potential buy-low and sell-high candidates, so this will hopefully be a helpful article for those of you trying to make some moves!
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SIERA Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 28, 2024.
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
2-2, 2.79 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.16 SIERA
Jared Jones has taken the fantasy world by storm, drawing comparisons to Spencer Strider (elbow). The rookie flamethrower has an impressive 2.79 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 34.8% strikeout rate in his first five big-league starts. His 2.16 SIERA is even lower than his ERA and is one of baseball's lowest. Can fantasy managers expect him to continue delivering at such a high level?
Jared Jones has 14 whiffs through 3 innings. He also broke Brice Turang’s ankles in the process.
— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) April 22, 2024
Jones didn't come into the season as a noteworthy prospect but his fastball-slider combination offers a ton of velocity and spin. Surprisingly, he has allowed hard contact with a middling 13-degree launch angle. This batted-ball profile doesn't seem like it would lend itself to a low SIERA.
The good news is that Jones allows very little contact. His 63.6% contact rate is the lowest among qualified pitchers. This explains his low SIERA. His low walk rate also factors into his stellar SIERA.
The 22-year-old has brought electric stuff so far, and his peripherals and underlying metrics justify it. He has allowed hard but almost no contact while striking batters out at an elite clip.
Innings limitations may come into play at some point, although Jones did pitch a combined 126 innings last season in the minors, so it is possible he could reach an almost full-time workload. Overall, Jones provides a lot to be excited about from a fantasy perspective.
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
0-1, 4.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 2.65 SIERA
Jack Flaherty has flashed fantasy greatness in his career but has dealt with injuries and streaks of poor performance. His peripherals present a mixed bag to start 2024, with a 4.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 29.0% strikeout rate. To muddy things further, his 2.65 SIERA is quite strong and is much lower than his ERA. What should fantasy managers make of this?
Like Jones, Flaherty has allowed little contact. His 67.3% contact rate is only second to Jones among qualified pitchers. He also has allowed few walks, although his current 3.2% walk rate is much lower than his 8.9% career mark.
Jack Flaherty's 9th and 10th Ks pic.twitter.com/hs5h2iKHd9
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 20, 2024
Unlike Jones, Flaherty has produced a pretty good batted-ball profile. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the top half of baseball, and his 10.3-degree launch angle is fine. His low SIERA and .329 BABIP suggest that he has gotten unlucky.
Flaherty has had an up-and-down fantasy career, which can make it difficult to put trust in him. His ERA may not show it, but his underlying numbers indicate that he has pitched well this season. He could be a buy-low candidate, although I would like to see a bit more regression towards his underlying numbers before believing in them.
SIERA Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 28, 2024.
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
2-3, 1.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 5.07 SIERA
Tyler Anderson is off to a great start this season with a 1.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 17.2% strikeout rate. He has provided fantasy value sporadically throughout his career but owns a middling 4.27 career ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His current 5.07 SIERA also doesn't help his case. Could Anderson be in line for negative regression?
Anderson's batted-ball profile looks pretty good. He has done a good job avoiding hard contact, which he has done for most of his career. His 15.7-degree launch angle leads to a lot of flyballs, which SIERA negatively takes into account. However, those flyballs haven't led to damaging contact because they are softly hit.
He has also allowed a mediocre 10.7% walk rate and a low strikeout rate, which negatively affect his SIERA. It is possible to outperform underlying metrics given a pitcher's strategy, and Anderson's current low-strikeout, high-flyball, weak-contact approach could yield better results than his SIERA.
To be clear, I do not think Anderson will finish the season with such stellar peripherals. He has allowed a .181 BABIP compared to a .286 career mark, so I would expect him to allow more base hits despite his batted-ball profile. Also, his career numbers have not been this strong despite pitching with a similar approach.
At this point, Anderson could be considered a sell-high candidate, although I'm not sure if there are many interested parties. Fantasy managers who roster Anderson have been getting a lot of fantasy value, and he could continue to contribute positively even with regression. For now, fantasy managers are likely best sticking with him until he starts significantly regressing.
Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds
1-2, 2.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 5.03 SIERA
Andrew Abbott had an overall successful 2023 rookie season and has built upon it in 2024. The 24-year-old has a 2.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 17.7% strikeout rate in his first five starts. However, his 5.03 SIERA tells a different story. Should fantasy managers be worried?
Abbott has the disadvantage of pitching his home games in Great American Ballpark, and his batted-ball profile does not help. Abbott is a flyball pitcher, allowing a 22.7-degree launch angle. His average exit velocity is only in the 33rd percentile of baseball, but his hard-hit rate is in the 79th. He hasn't allowed many home runs yet with a 0.98 HR/9 rate, but that could come back to bite him given his profile.
Additionally, Abbott's strikeout rate has dipped considerably from 2023 to 2024. He has experienced a drop in swinging-strike rate on all his pitches despite his pitch arsenal remaining similar to last season. Perhaps hitters have more tape to go off of, although I would expect his overall swinging-strike rate to end up higher than 6.6% by the end of the season.
Like Anderson, I still think Abbott can provide fantasy value even if he experiences negative regression. However, his home ballpark makes his margin for error slimmer than Anderson's. I'm not sure there is much to take action on regarding Abbott at this time. Fantasy managers could try to sell high on him, but I'm not sure how hot his market would be.
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