Pitchers Advanced Metrics Leaders for BABIP - Statcast Studs and Duds (Week 5)

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose BABIP could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 5.

Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for the 2024 season! Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change. Over the last two weeks, I looked at different components of pitchers' batted-ball profiles: exit velocity and launch angle. This week, I investigate an outcome of batted-ball profile: batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

BABIP measures a player's batting average on balls hit into the field of play, removing outcomes the defense cannot affect, such as home runs and strikeouts. BABIP is not something the pitcher completely controls. For instance, faster hitters are likelier to beat out slow ground balls for hits, and better defenses may allow fewer hits than weaker ones. That being said, pitchers who are pitching well will likely have lower BABIPs than those who aren't.

Comparing a pitcher's batted-ball profile to their BABIP can help identify over and underachievers. We expect pitchers with strong batted-ball profiles to have lower BABIPs, and vice versa. Any discrepancies may indicate opportunities to buy low or sell high. For reference, the league-average BABIP is typically around .300. Using underlying metrics can help fantasy managers identify winning moves before their opponents, so let's start looking!

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BABIP Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 21, 2024.

Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros

2-0, 1.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, .149 BABIP

Ronel Blanco has been a surprise anchor to a depleted Astros rotation to start the season. The 30-year-old has a 1.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 21.6% strikeout rate in his first four starts, including a no-hitter. Like many of his metrics, his .149 BABIP is one of the best in baseball. Should fantasy managers believe what they are seeing from him?

Blanco's batted-ball profile supports his low BABIP. Blanco's Statcast profile is littered with red. Specifically, his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the top 10 percent of baseball.

Ronel Blanco with another great performance today:

6 IP | 5 H | 2 ER | 6 K

He has a 1.33 ERA on the season! #Astros pic.twitter.com/ZAAa2VAMbP

— Astros Future (@AstrosFuture) April 20, 2024

Blanco has effectively used his pitch mix and location despite not being an overpowering pitcher. He has worked in the top of the zone with his fastball, inducing a 24-degree launch angle and a .111 batting average. His changeup and slider are complementary, yielding weak contact and low realized and expected batting averages.

Blanco only broke into the big leagues last season, leaving little history for fantasy managers to go off of. His four starts this season have been excellent and his batted-ball profile supports his results, including his BABIP. It is unreasonable to think that any starter can maintain such stellar numbers throughout a season, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Blanco can continue to return high-end results.

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

3-1, 1.85 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, .172 BABIP

Bryce Miller was a fantasy sensation when he was first called up in 2023, and he has gotten off to an equally good start in 2024. The 25-year-old has a 1.85 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 26.1% strikeout rate in his first four starts. His minuscule .172 BABIP has likely played a part in his success. Can he keep it up for an extended period?

Miller's batted-ball profile does not fully support his excellent BABIP. His batted-ball profile hasn't been bad, but it has only been mediocre. His current exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 36th and 58th percentiles, respectively, and his average launch angle sits at 15.2 degrees.

The good news is that his pitch arsenal lends itself to avoiding damaging contact. His four-seamer has generated a launch angle of 29 degrees, which translates to lazy fly balls. Meanwhile, his sinker and splitter have resulted in launch angles of zero and five degrees. The results on each of his pitches individually justify his low BABIP more than his combined averages.

It is unrealistic that Miller's BABIP will remain this low, but there are some encouraging signs in his pitch mix. His main pitches either induce extreme fly balls or grounders with middling velocity, both of which have a lower chance of going for hits. Miller still has a lot to do to prove that he can be a stable fantasy option, but his early results suggest that he could take a developmental step forward in 2024.

BABIP Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 21, 2024.

Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres

2-2, 6.29 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, .397 BABIP

Joe Musgrove is healthy for the 2024 season but has not yet met fantasy expectations. The veteran has struggled with a 6.29 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, and 17.9% strikeout rate. Unsurprisingly, his .397 BABIP is one of the highest among qualified pitchers. Should fantasy managers give up hope on him this early?

From a high level, nothing has gone in Musgrove's favor. His Statcast page is covered in blue, he has allowed career-high hard contact, and his .397 BABIP is not only a career-high but is much higher than his .294 career average.

Digging deeper, Musgrove has only had one pitch to rely on. His slider has gotten good results and he has thrown that pitch the most so far. Unfortunately, his other three main pitches have all yielded awful results. This could partly be due to his poor pitch location, although he has never gotten results nearly this poor.

At this point, there aren't any underlying metrics suggesting that things will get better for Musgrove. However, he has drastically underperformed his career numbers without any significant changes in his game. Until something clear rears its head, I am inclined to trust Musgrove's track record and hope that some natural regression will occur. However, I would like to see some positive results before trying to buy low on him.

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

2-2, 6.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .354 BABIP

George Kirby performed like a fantasy ace in 2023 but has gotten completely different results to start 2024. He has a bloated 6.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .354 BABIP in his first four starts. Fantasy managers are likely concerned given their early investment in Kirby, but should they be?

Kirby's batted-ball profile does not align with his BABIP or peripheral numbers. He has done a good job avoiding contact with an exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 60th and 90th percentiles of baseball, respectively. His 19.3-degree launch angle shouldn't be a problem since he hasn't allowed hard contact.

Additionally, his expected results have been better than his actual results on almost all of his pitches. His 3.43 xERA and 3.66 SIERA are also much lower than his current ERA.

All in all, underlying signs point to bad luck for Kirby through his first four starts. He has allowed less hard contact than his first two seasons, yet his peripherals have been much worse. Kirby has a good chance to rebound throughout the season if he continues to pitch like he's been. I would buy low on him if any fantasy managers are panicking.

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