Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Pitch Run Values For Week 25

Connelly Doan examines pitchers whose particular run values on particular pitches could make them worth adding or dropping in fantasy baseball for Week 25.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I have selected an advanced stat, chosen two top performers and two under-performers, and analyzed what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. This week I will focus on a stat that describes how particular pitches have performed overall: run value.

Run value is used to establish the run potential of a particular pitch in a given game situation. Ultimately, it can be used to assess how effective a pitcher has been with each of their pitches over the course of a season. In general, pitchers who perform better will have better run values on their pitches, and vice versa. However, it is important for fantasy managers to understand how their rostered pitchers are using their pitch arsenals and whether or not they are implementing them the best they could.   

Fantasy managers have difficult roster decisions to make at this point in the season. The difference between starting or streaming a particular pitcher can determine who advances in the playoffs and who starts the off-season early. As I have done throughout this series, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs for this article. Let's get going with the hopes that this analysis can help you get the edge in the fantasy playoffs!

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Run Value Studs

All stats current as of Sunday, September 12, 2021.

Adrian Houser, Milwaukee Brewers: Sinker

(9-6, 3.25 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, -18 Sinker Run Value)

I wrote about Adrian Houser in my Week 5 launch angle article, stating that he had done a great keeping the ball on the ground but that it would be nice to see a larger sample size before buying into him. Fantasy managers who bought into Houser have been nicely rewarded, as he has gone 9-6 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His launch angle has led to his success, as evidenced by his -19 run value on his sinker, his primary pitch. That being said, he is still rostered in just 38 percent of leagues, so is Houser someone worth streaming down the stretch?

Houser has found such success due to his great sinker. He has thrown the pitch 53.5% of the time and has gotten great results. Pitchers have beat the pitch into the ground with an average launch angle of -6 degrees and have not hit it hard with an average exit velocity of 87 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 38.4%. He has gotten solid results with the pitch to the tune of a .205 batting average and a .270 slugging percentage. Just as important, his expected stats support those numbers at a .223 expected batting average, .307 expected slugging percentage, and .297 expected wOBA. All of this has led to a sinker that is the ninth-best pitch by run value this season.

Houser isn't the most exciting fantasy pitcher given he pitches to contact and doesn't strike many hitters out. However, his approach has been highly successful due to his effective use of his sinker. He pitches deep enough to qualify for wins, has a solid offense backing him up, and won't often blow up due to keeping the ball on the ground. His tentative schedule rest of season looks like one matchup against the Cubs, two against the Cardinals, and potentially one against the Dodgers. Taking all of this in, I recommend picking up Houser and his sinker for his next three matchups.

Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies: Sinker

(6-4, 1.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, -14 Sinker Run Value)

I wrote about this pitcher last week as a wOBA stud and he has continued to deliver in the Phillies' starting rotation. Ranger Suarez has had a very smooth transition to a starting role, going 6-4 with a minuscule 1.38 ERA. Like Houser, Suarez's sinker has been one of his best pitches and one of baseball's best with a run value of -14. He is still available in 27 percent of leagues, so is Suarez a player fantasy managers should go pick up for playoff rotation support?   

Suarez has relied mainly on a sinker (46.1% usage), changeup (24.8% usage), and four-seam fastball (22.7% usage), but he has done well with his limited pitch arsenal. His batted-ball profile is great overall, particularly with his sinker. His 85.2-MPH average exit velocity and 32.3% hard-hit rate are both elite, as is his -2-degree launch angle. He has gotten both great actual results as well as expected results. He also has generated a solid 10.6% overall swinging-strike rate while relying so much on his sinker. This is due to the fact that Suarez's other pitches have also been effective, with a run value of -6 for his four-seamer and -5 for his changeup.

Suarez has continued to do what he was doing out of the bullpen in the rotation, and he has done a great job overall. He has avoided hard contact, kept the ball on the ground, and gotten strikeouts while relying on a solid pitch arsenal led by a great sinker. Suarez has performed too well for fantasy managers to ignore him, even this late in the season. He has a great set up potential matchups, making me even more confident in adding him for the final few important weeks of the fantasy season. I would go after Suarez before Houser if he is available.

Run Value Duds

All stats current as of Sunday, September 12, 2021.

Zach Plesac, Cleveland Indians: Four-Seam Fastball

(10-5, 4.45 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 13 Fastball Run Value)

This pitcher had a fantastic 2020 season, but has been pedestrian at best this season. Zach Plesac has compiled a 4.45 ERA over 22 starts with Cleveland this season. His disappointing performance could be due to the lack of success he has found with his four-seam fastball, his primary pitch. Plesac has managed a 13 run value with the pitch this season. He is still rostered in 82 percent of leagues, but is Plesac a pitcher to avoid for the fantasy playoffs?

Simply put, Plesac's other pitches have been effective but his fastball has been so bad that it has pulled everything down. His fastball has below-average velocity and movement, so he has to locate it effectively. Unfortunately, Plesac has left the pitch mostly right in the middle of the plate. Consequently, he has allowed a poor .310 batting average and .585 slugging percentage with it. Further, his batted-ball profile is what hitters dream of. He has allowed a 93.6-MPH average exit velocity, 52.8% hard-hit-rate, and 17-degree launch angle with the pitch. Plesac's inability to use his fastball has affected most of his Statcast metrics, as he has not struck hitters out and has poor expected stats.

Plesac has not been what he was last season, which has likely been puzzling and frustrating for fantasy managers. As evidenced by his ownership, they have held out hope that he can provide a few solid starts. My concern is that he simply cannot be trusted at this point in the season. There is too much on the line to rely on a pitcher for name value alone.

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds: Sinker

(7-15, 4.24 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 11 Sinker Run Value)

I wrote about Luis Castillo in Week 13 as an ERA-SIERA stud. At that time I called Castillo a buy-low candidate despite his ugly surface numbers. Since then, Castillo has gone 5-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 15 starts. Castillo has certainly turned things around overall, but he still has a 4.24 ERA on the season and has one of baseball's worst pitches with a sinker with an 11 run value. Should Castillo's sinker performance be a concern at this point in the season?

Castillo's sinker is his third pitch behind his changeup and four-seam fastball. That being said, he has thrown his sinker 24.2% of the time, so it is a pitch he often relies on. The pitch itself has plenty of velocity at 97.3 MPH and has slightly above-average vertical and horizontal movement. He also hasn't had awful location with it. For the most part he has kept it under the hands of right-handed hitters. Obviously, he hasn't gotten solid results with it or it wouldn't be in this article. Castillo has given up a bloated .354 batting average and .500 slugging percentage with the pitch. His hard-hit rate hasn't been great at 44.4%, but his 88.6-MPH average exit velocity and -2 degree launch angle are fine. His expected batting average and slugging percentage are also high for the sinker at .295 and .434, but I am surprised that the pitch has been so unsuccessful given its batted-ball profile and success of the rest of his pitches.

Castillo has been a fantasy workhorse since the end of June and has generated solid peripheral numbers. His other pitches have been effective and his sinker profiles as a solid pitch, but he has gotten awful results with it. I am not entirely sure how to reconcile this other than suggest bad luck, but I ultimately don't think it matters much. Castillo has gained my trust and is a pitcher to continue starting with the playoffs on the line, despite the results he has gotten with his sinker.

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