Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - MLB Second-Half Preview

July 26, 2022

Connelly examines first-half fantasy baseball pitcher studs and duds to identify how they may perform in the second half for Week 16.

Welcome back to fantasy baseball and RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I normally select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. As we return from the All-Star break and dive back into fantasy baseball, I want to take the time to analyze a couple of overall Statcast Studs and Duds from the first half of the season.

We now have half a season's worth of data, which may seem like a lot. However, there is still plenty of time for things to change and numbers to regress. This presents excellent opportunities for fantasy managers to take advantage of pivotal buy-low and sell-high trades. Every move counts as the weeks dwindle away leading up to fantasy playoffs.

The slight break was nice, but it's time to dive back into strategizing and analyzing for the second half of the season! Let's take a look at some of the first half's biggest Studs and Duds and try to understand how they may perform in the second half.

First-Half Statcast Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 24, 2022.

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
6-5, 3.13 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 33.9% Strikeout Rate

Cristian Javier has been given the opportunity to serve primarily as a starter this season and has made the most of it. The 25-year-old has gone 6-5 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a stellar 33.9% strikeout rate over 83 1/3 innings pitched.

The majority of his Statcast metrics are at the top among baseball. However, with a potential innings limit on the horizon, is there anything fantasy managers should be worried about?

Javier relies heavily on a fastball at 61.1% usage, followed by a slider at 26%. His fastball doesn't have overpowering velocity but gets a ton of spin in the 82nd percentile.

He also works in the top of the zone with the pitch, which induces a lot of high but weak contact. The location and spin of his fastball have led to an impressive 14% swinging-strike rate, and his sweeping slider has generated a 15.3% swinging-strike rate.

There are a few causes for potential concern. One, despite the fact that Javier has managed to do it for his career so far, I do worry a bit about maintaining such a high strikeout rate while only relying on two pitches.

Further, his current HR/FB rate is roughly half of what it has been in his career, despite having a similar batted-ball profile. Finally, he does have a bit of a walk issue with a 10% walk rate and throws a lot of pitches to get his strikeouts. Consequently, he has only averaged about 5 1/3 IP per start.

Javier has delivered great results for fantasy managers this season, keeping runs off the board while racking up strikeouts. There are some concerns that he can continue to be this good and that the Astros will let him go, but there certainly aren't any underlying red flags.

As such, I would consider trading Javier for a more-established starter or maybe a strong bat if I was in need, but I also have no problem with hanging on to Javier for the second half.

Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants
3-4, 4.09 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 22.8% Strikeout Rate

Alex Cobb's peripheral season numbers aren't awful by any means, but they are still not where fantasy managers were hoping they would be. Cobb has seen some improvement from the beginning of the season, but his 4.09 ERA and 1.29 WHIP are still middling. However, his Statcast profile is red all over. Injury potential aside, is there more for Cobb to improve in the second half?

I think all signs point to yes. Cobb has gotten hitters to beat the ball into the ground with a -1.4-degree launch angle, thanks to relying on a sinker (43.5% usage), split-finger fastball (42.2% usage), and curveball (14.1% usage).

Further, he has induced weak contact, as both his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 67th and 79th percentiles of baseball, respectively. He has a 2.79 xERA and 3.18 SIERA to back up his underlying metrics, in direct contrast to his bloated .324 BABIP.

All of Cobb's underlying numbers indicate that he should be getting better results this season, and his recent performance has started to yield that. There is still room to go, so while Cobb's asking price may be higher now than it was earlier in the season, I still consider him to be a buy-low candidate who could help propel fantasy managers to the playoffs.

First-Half Statcast Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 24, 2022.

Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays
7-4, 5.22 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 21.1% Strikeout Rate

Jose Berrios came into the 2022 season with a track record as an above-average, reliable fantasy option. His performance so far this season has been anything but. Berrios' ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rate have been the worst since his rookie season.

Consequently, his Statcast profile is a sea of blue. Fantasy managers are obviously disappointed with Berrios, but what should they do with him in the second half of the season?

From a high level, fantasy managers have limited options with Berrios. Despite his historical track record, he has performed so poorly that fantasy managers who roster him may have trouble getting much for him. This leaves them with the option of just riding it out and hoping he will pitch more as he has in the past.

On the flip side, this could be a great buy-low opportunity. Digging in, Berrios' batted-ball profile has been poor this season. He has gotten hit very hard with an elevated 15.3-degree launch angle. The specific culprits have been his four-seam fastball and sinker; both pitches have not been spotted well and have very poor results to show for them.

That being said, there are some signs of hope for Berrios. First, his season 3.93 SIERA is much lower than his ERA. Second, Berrios looked much better in the month of July.

Through four starts, he posted a stellar 3.09 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a 29.3% strikeout rate. Coincidentally, Berrios relied primarily on his curveball in July at 35.4%, decreasing the use of his fastballs. His fastball results still weren't great, but their expected stats were, which is a good sign.

If you have stuck it out with Berrios to this point, you may be resigned to the fact that you'll be saddled with him for the rest of the season. You may also be so frustrated that you just trade him for whatever you can get.

Given the underlying numbers lately, I would suggest holding onto him or trying to buy low on him if you don't roster him now. I would expect some regression to his career numbers in general, and his last four starts suggest that this regression may already be on the way.

Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks
6-9, 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 17.3% Strikeout Rate

The days of Madison Bumgarner being a high-end fantasy option are long gone, but this season has been a better version of MadBum than we have seen for several seasons. The lefty veteran has put together a respectable 6-9 record with a 3.71 ERA over 20 starts.

However, fantasy managers aren't buying it, as he is currently just 24 percent rostered. His Statcast profile also leaves much to be desired, as the majority of his marks are at the bottom of baseball. Is there anything for fantasy managers to be excited about in Bumgarner's profile for the second half?

Unfortunately, there isn't much that inspires confidence in Bumgarner beyond his current peripherals. He relies primarily on what is now a mediocre cutter and an underwhelming four-seam fastball.

Consequently, his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom 20 percent of baseball to go with a 15.7-degree launch angle. He can't overpower hitters and has to rely on pitching to the margins.

This leaves very little room for error; at best, he will maintain his current peripherals, but otherwise, some form of regression will occur for the worse.

Bumgarner has pitched well enough to be a fantasy thought at times this season, but there really isn't enough there to garner any trust. At best, Bumgarner could be a risky streamer for the second half, but fantasy managers who are looking for high floors will want to avoid him, especially given that his ceiling is not that high.

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