X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

How Sustainable is High Fastball Usage? Hunter Greene, Justin Steele Analysis

hunter greene fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers pitcher waiver wire

Jon Anderson looks at two young starting pitchers, Hunter Greene and Justin Steele, that are impressing early in 2022, but may have a worrisome pitch usage rate for sustained fantasy baseball success.

Hunter Greene and Justin Steele have looked very sharp to start the 2022 season. They are both trendy waiver wire additions in fantasy leagues right now, but I noticed something very interesting about these two guys. They have both been extremely reliant on their four-seam fastball in their first two outings, and in Greene's case, he's been throwing the ball harder than anybody you'll typically see not coming out of the bullpen.

Greene just set a record for the most 100-plus MPH pitches thrown in a single game (39). Steele only averages 92.4 MPH on his fastball but he's used it 63.4% of the time in his first two starts.

I wanted to dive a bit into the historical data to see how common it is for a pitcher to use a fastball this often, and how that plays out.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

60%+ Fastball Usage

I checked 2018, 2019, and 2021 to see how many pitchers that made at least 20 starts used their four-seam fastball more than 60% of the time. Here is the whole list:

You can see it's a very short list, and not exactly a list of aces. The lone exception here is Verlander, who had tons of success in 2018 despite the heavy fastball usage.

So far in 2022, we have already seen seven starting pitchers throw their four-seam fastball over 60% of the time.

Those names: Triston McKenzie (69.3%), Jake Odorizzi (67.8%), Hunter Greene (65.7%), Justin Steele (63.1%), Joan Adon (62.1%), Michael Kopech (61.8%), Logan Gilbert (60.6%).

It is quite possible that this is just a consequence of the fact that pitchers are just getting going. These guys are still getting stretched out, and it's entirely possible that they're just relying on their heater this much because of that and this trend will not continue.

Staying focused on the young guys, Green and Steele, we find that neither of them seems to have a very deep arsenal. Here are the breakdowns of their pitch usages so far.

Hunter Greene 2022 Pitch Usage

Pitch # Thrown
4-Seam Fastball 113
Slider 41
Changeup 18

Justin Steele 2022 Pitch Usage

Pitch # Thrown
4-Seam Fastball 99
Slider 47
Sinker 5
Curveball 5
Changeup 1

Steele has five different pitches, but you can see he's been very hesitant to use anything but the four-seamer or the slider. As for Greene, he seems to only have three pitches to thrown, and there's not much confidence being shown in the changeup thus far.

I think this is pretty bad news for these two guys. It's not unheard of for a starter with 80%+ of their pitch mix being dedicated to two pitches to have success (Tyler Glasnow is a positive case for this), but it's typically the exception rather than the rule.

The other note to mention on Steele is that his fastball hasn't even been very good in terms of earning strikes. The pitch has just a 25% CSW% and a bad 5% SwStr%. He has yet to allow a barrel on the pitch, which explains a lot of his success, but it seems very unlikely to me that the pitch will continue to have success given its lack of velocity (92.4 average mph) and how often he throws it. It's a different story for Greene, at least in terms of velocity – so let's talk about that.

 

Velocity Sustainability

So far, Hunter Greene has thrown 113 fastballs and they have AVERAGED 100.0 miles per hour. That is incredible stuff. I again looked at every starter with 20+ GS since 2018, but this time I wanted to see who had the highest average velocities on their fastballs. I've included 2022 data here just to show where Greene lines up.

We see Greene towering over the field here, and we also see that usage being way, way above the rest.

So there are two possibilities at hand.

  1. Greene throws the ball way harder than anybody else in recent baseball history.
  2. Greene is maxing out effort-wise early on due to adrenaline and the desire to have early success in his rookie year.

I'm going to go with #2 there. I am fairly certain that most pitchers who average 96 or above in the big leagues COULD average 100 if they really wanted to, but they simply know that it's not safe or sustainable. You do not want to be throwing the ball as hard as you possibly can if your goal is to throw a full season's worth of innings.

Now, I suppose it's possible that Greene isn't doing that. Maybe he could average 103 if he wanted, and he's holding back a bit and just averaging 100. I'm not sure what the limits are on human biology, but I think averaging 103 like that might be past them. I would wager quite a bit of money that Greene's average fastball velocity is going to be around 97-98 as we move forward.

This isn't to say that a 97-mile-per-hour fastball isn't really fast and tough to hit, you can tell above that averaging 97 would put him right with the league leaders over the last three full seasons. I'm not trying to say that his fastball will be a bad one just because he'll lose a couple of ticks on it.

What I am saying is that the fastball will perform worse if/when it comes down a bit in velocity. Right now, the 18.6% SwStr% he's put together on his four-seamer leads the league. It has also gone over the fence three times in two starts and been barreled up four times. I don't think anything above a 16% SwStr% on a four-seam fastball can be sustained. Alek Manoah led the league in SwStr% on the four-seam last season at 15.3%, and only five pitchers even managed above 14%.

 

Conclusion

Both of these pitchers are overly reliant on their four-seam fastball. In the case of Steele, it appears that he has way over-performed on the pitch given its lack of velocity and how often it is thrown at hitters. Louder contact is inevitably coming soon, so I would avoid Steele on waivers in favor of other names.

As for Greene, the velocity and the usage of the four-seamer just have to come down. The big worry with him is that he's only shown us two other pitches so far, which is really limiting his options as far as adjusting goes. Greene is a very talented arm with a bright future, but I think he's going to have a bumpy road ahead of him as Major League hitters get some plate appearances against them. I would be looking to sell Greene in redraft leagues right now.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF