RADIO
Hey there, RotoBallers! Thanks for stopping by my PGA DFS strategy series that focuses on multi-entry GPP strategy for each specific golf tournament on the PGA Tour. If you haven't read any of my pieces yet, my name is Tommy Bell. I go by @BellRoto in the Twitter world, and I've been writing for RotoBaller since my college days back in 2013!
Our fantastic RotoBaller PGA team has pretty much every facet of golf DFS and betting covered, but this might one extra piece I can add to the mix to help put into words what I believe is the most profitable way to approach PGA DFS. That approach is simply max entering the multi-entry GPP tournaments. For context, I will be using DraftKings as my site of reference, and I will refer mainly to the $3 entry, 20-entry max tournament that they host each tournament. That being said, a lot of what I'll cover can be translated to use in lower or higher buy-in tournaments. It can also (with some tweaks) be used in a 50-entry or 150-entry max approach.
I understand everyone uses different lineup-building tools, and that's great! I'll be using our awesome lineup builder/optimizer tool here as reference. Each week I'll provide some reflection on last week's tournament, some generic thoughts on the upcoming approach to building multiple lineups, and lastly a quick peak at which players will make up my core for building GPP lineups this week. Let's get to it!
Reflection: Last Week's Memorial Tournament
There's not a whole lot I have to say about last week that couldn't be obviously taken from my exposures screen-shotted below. Without any Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, and Ryan Palmer, I never really had a chance in week two at Jack's Place. I might've been able to break even had Daniel Berger not gone four-over on his final four holes Friday afternoon. While Chez Reavie and Harris English worked out well as value plays, I had far too many back-end players who burned me and missed the cut. It was a lost week come Friday around 2:00 pm despite what looked like a promising start on Thursday.
When high-profile players like Finau, Rahm, and Gary Woodland take a massive leap above the field on Day 2 of the tournament, you probably need to have at least one to feel good about things. It turns out the crazy difficult conditions really mixed things up before the final putt dropped on Sunday, but I was just hoping for as much of my entry fees back as possible once my best options became English, Reavie, and maybe Cantlay. It never felt like a great week, which can be very frustrating after all the time and effort put into research. In times like that, just check out for a bit, get your mind off things, and try to move on to next week. I've said it before and I'll say it again... You need to be able to take big losses in GPPs if you want a chance at the even bigger payouts.
Approach: 3M Open
This will definitely be a shortened article compared to others in this series, simply because I'm not going crazy with financial investment this week. I almost never do this, because big wins can come at any time, and you don't want to miss out. However, this tournament's weak field and easy course gives it a Rocket Mortgage feel, where we could see the clear star win or the random player who hasn't shown any recent form. With other big events around the corner, we could also see golfers pack it in early if things aren't going their way on Thursday and/or Friday. It seems like a smart week to get back on track in a marginal way before gearing back up for a WGC event and a Major on the horizon.
I should note that I don't LOVE the top of the player pool this week, so my ownership up there will be very concentrated. I also had a tough time finding value plays I truly trust, which is common in weak fields (especially when the field is 150+ players). As such, I'll be throwing my lineups into the $1 GPP this week instead of the $3 GPP that I usually enter. I plan to get back on track at the WGC in Memphis next week.
As for the course this week, it's TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota. It will play as a pretty long Par 71 with plenty of water, but it shouldn't really come unless players REALLY make a mistake. The fairways are huge and the greens are very get-able, so while the iron shots may be a little longer than Detroit Golf Club, it should play similarly to the Rocket Mortgage a few weeks ago. The players at the top of the leaderboard will be the ones who are dialed in with their irons and have gotten red hot with the putter. Around-the-green play means much less this week than last, and there are avenues for success for almost any type of golfer. Let's see who I've come up with the lead the way in my 20 lineups.
Staples Over $8.5K: Memorial Tournament
Tommy Fleetwood: $10,500 - About 50%
I was hesitant on some players who had delayed returns to PGA events due to the Covid layoff. However, I'm very comfortable hopping right back on Fleetwood. The Englishman played loads off golf while back home in Southport, UK, and he comes in having the 5th best Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking numbers of anyone in the field over the past 50 rounds. The kid is a baller, and he's a perfect fit for this course. With all of the question marks surrounding the top of this board, the tournamnet could be Tommy's for the taking.
Paul Casey: $10,100 - About 50%
While Fleetwood is number 5 in SG: Ball-Striking, his fellow countryman is our number one ball-striker in the field over the past 50 rounds. A tough 8 on a Par 3 dashed Casey's hopes to make the cut on Friday at Muirfield Village, but that gave him extra time and motivation to get ready for what should be a very get-able track in TPC Twin Cities. Casey's irons looked sharp outside of that one hole, and he was even rolling some putts. I'm buying in here and hope he starts pin target practice early.
Harris English: $9,000 - About 50%
English looked impressive at the Memorial last week in his quiet T13 finish. After his missed cut at the Schwab to start the second half of the season, he has now logged two Top-20 finishes while gaining nearly four strokes on approach in each of those events. This course should be a breeze after English gained strokes in all categories at Jack's Place, so I'm banking on a Top 5 finish with potential for a win if Fleetwood and Casey falter at all.
Staples Under $8.5K: Memorial Tournament
Luke List: $8,400 - About 40%
His bogey avoidance outside of Saturday last week was extremely impressive, leading to a T10 finish at a VERY tough track. List's ball-striking prowess is well-documented, so I'm definitely willing to hop on while his game looks strong. Putting is always the big question mark with List, so let's hope he builds confidence early and rides it to another Top 10 showing.
Sam Ryder: $7,300 - About 40%
Ryder had a great showing at the Workday Charity Open following two surprising missed cuts at the Rocket Mortgage and Travelers. Losing three strokes putting was his downfall in Connecticut, but he bounced back and gained 4.1 strokes putting in his T7 finish at the first week of Muirfield Village action. Ryder is a very consistent ball-striker, who will find his challenges around the green and occasionally struggle with the putter. The around-the-green woes shouldn't be a problem this week, as the fairways and greens will be extremely attack-able. He also logged a T34 at this event in 2019. This is a very fair price for a talented ball-striker in Sam Ryder.
Will Gordon: $7,700 - About 35%
An already proven grinder who has all the skills to be a mainstay on tour for the next couple of decades. This should be a track he can use to showcase his game, and the nerves should be calmer being a few weeks removed from his big outing at the Travelers. I'm going to get back on Gordon before we get confirmation of the potential we saw in Connecticut.
Troy Merritt: $7,500 - About 35%
Putting extremely well of late, which isn't sustainable for many, but Merritt seems to buck that trend weekly. He logged Top 10 finishes both at this event last year and the Rocket Mortgage Classic a few weeks ago, which sport similar fields and course layout/difficulty. This is a very fair price for a solid player on a course that should allow him to take advantage of his above average putting.
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