Justin Herbert - Path to Overall Fantasy Football QB1

August 22, 2023

Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert was 2021's QB2 but slipped to QB11 in 2022. Can he bounce back? Aidin analyzes how Herbert can end the year as the overall fantasy QB1.

With the sixth overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the LA Chargers selected Oregon QB Justin Herbert. This was a pretty polarizing pick at the time, as many thought that Herbert was just a kid with a strong arm but no killer instinct. However, he quickly proved his doubters wrong.

Herbert had a historic rookie season and followed that up with a monster 2021 campaign which saw him throw for over 5,000 yards. He finished the year as the overall QB2, just 21.82 fantasy points behind QB1 Josh Allen. Many thought that Herbert would be the clear-cut QB1 in 2021, but he regressed and finished with 281.3 points. This put him outside of the top-10 QB rankings for the first time in his young career. While Sam Berger and I still prefer Lamar Jackson over him going into 2023, Herbert is still a very good player who can easily bounce back.

With that in mind, this article will look at how Herbert could bounce back and potentially be this year's QB1.

2020-2021: A Historic Start And The Overall QB2

Coming out of high school, Justin Herbert was just a three-star ESPN recruit. He only received two FBS offers: one from Nevada, and the other from his hometown Oregon Ducks. He decided to stay close to home and quickly climbed up the ranks, becoming the team's starter midway through his freshman season as an 18-year-old.

After two more seasons, he was viewed as a potential top-five pick and the best draft-eligible QB in 2019. However, Herbert decided to stay in Oregon for one more year. Despite having his best season ever, he slipped to being the third QB taken in 2020 due to the rise of Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. After being picked by the Chargers as the heir apparent to Philip Rivers, he got his chance when Tyrod Taylor got hurt.

Despite only starting in 15 games, Herbert finished with the second-most rookie passing yards ever (4,336) behind Andrew Luck, and he certainly would have broken the record had he started in Week 1. From Week 4 to Week 11, Herbert threw for 20 touchdowns to just four picks with a 109 passer rating. He also added two touchdowns on the ground.

Herbert was the overall QB2 during that stretch behind Kyler Murray. He was on pace for 397.5 fantasy points if he kept up his hot streak, which would have seen him finish as the QB1 in his rookie season. Although he unfortunately cooled off to end the season, Herbert still finished as the QB9. This was a remarkable achievement for a first-year player.

In his second season, the Chargers moved on from their offensive coordinator (and current Colts head coach) Shane Steichen, and hired Joe Lombardi. Herbert had fun throwing many deep bombs under Steichen, which showcased his enormous arm talent. However, Lombardi employed a very different style. He, along with QB coach Shane Day, emphasized more dropbacks and short passes.

Justin Herbert passes Philip Rivers for the most single-season TDs in Chargers history 🔥

⚡️ Herbert: 35 TD
⚡️ Rivers: 34 TD (2008) pic.twitter.com/wsmz3jJ3gB

— ESPN (@espn) January 2, 2022

Herbert initially found success in 2021 under Lombardi. He threw for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns, finishing as 2021's overall QB2. From Week 9 to the end of the season, he threw for 302 yards a game and was the overall QB1. That season, he became the first player to have over 5,000 passing yards and 300 rushing yards (302), though his numbers have since been bested by 2022 Patrick Mahomes.

2022: Didn't Take The Leap

Herbert carried the 2022 Chargers with his sheer will. With teams having more time to study Lombardi's game film and with his reluctance to change his plays, the Chargers' offense became predictable, both on the ground and through the air. Herbert also suffered a fracture to his rib cartilage in Week 2, which certainly didn't help matters.

The squad struggled mightily on third down and red zone situations due to their redundancy. Despite all of the incompetence, Herbert still threw for 4,739 yards and led the Chargers to a winning record. However, once again, their predictability was in full effect during their playoff showdown against the Jaguars, choking a 27-0 lead.

Watching Justin Herbert attempt to gut out a win each week despite having almost no receivers, no offensive line, no time to throw, no running game and dealing with bad coaching decisions reminds me of a certain QB in NFL history.

Philip Rivers pic.twitter.com/Vb94t8QeJE

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 6, 2022

Herbert settled for short throws more than ever in 2022, which is very disappointing for someone with one of the strongest arms in the league. There were many reasons for this. Despite Lombardi's playcalling, the Chargers' O-Line suffered many injuries and they were one of the most inconsistent units in football.

The team also lacked speed in their receiving core. Keenan Allen is getting up there in age and has never been the fastest WR in the league. Mike Williams is faster and is a pretty solid downfield threat, but he's the clear WR2 behind Allen. Allen and Williams both suffered injuries last year, while Jalen Guyton, one of their fastest WRs, tore his ACL in Week 3. Overcoming all of the adversity, Herbert still broke the record for the most passing yards in a QB's first three seasons, with 14,089 yards. He signed an NFL-record contract extension in the offseason.

2023: Can Justin Herbert Become The Overall QB1?

Joe Lombardi spent many, many years with the Saints and Drew Brees (Brees only played three seasons without Lombardi throughout his tenure with the Saints), and runs the same West Coast offense that New Orleans ran during that time. That offense worked great with Brees, who didn't possess a rocket arm. When used with someone like Herbert, who has an absolute cannon of an arm, it's like owning a Ferrari but driving it like a Fiat.

Last season, Herbert had a lower IAY/PA (intended air yards per pass attempt) average than Tom Brady. His CAY/C (completed air yards per completion) average was lower than that of Matt Ryan. Last season, Brady was 45 and Ryan was 37, and neither of them were considered to have strong arms at any point throughout their careers.

In fact, Herbert's advanced passing numbers look pretty similar to Brees' numbers in 2019 and 2020 when his arm was completely demolished. Herbert also didn't get many YAC/C (yards after the catch per completion) like Patrick Mahomes, so having this scheme without the personnel to pull it off made no sense.

Enter Kellen Moore. Moore has spent his entire coaching career with the Cowboys and Dak Prescott. Prescott has consistently been among one of the best deep throwers in football, finishing in the top five of IAY/PA in 2019 and in the top 10 in 2022, which were Moore's first and last seasons as Cowboys OC, respectively. Herbert's arm and deep-throwing ability are better than Prescott's, so we can expect him to throw deep and utilize his arm this season.

As for his new weapons, they're not as exciting as Lamar Jackson's new pass catchers, but they're still pretty solid. Even if you forget his 40-time, Quentin Johnston has great game speed. Johnston has been showing off his pace recently and could be Herbert's main deep target this season. Guyton is getting ready to return, and Joshua Palmer emerged out of the shadows last season, showing that he can be Keenan Allen lite, possibly even be his future replacement.

(Far Right): You can beat man-press with a step like this at the stem of the route. Great move & gets open. This stuff usually goes unnoticed while watching the game. The Chargers 1st-round pick is a legitimate weapon. Quentin Johnston will only get better from here, too... pic.twitter.com/xrHJwCaOQD

— Ryan DePaul (@RyanDePaul) August 21, 2023

Speaking of Allen, he is looking to bounce back while Williams is trying his best to get his first Pro Bowl nod. Don't forget that "Fantasy King" Austin Ekeler will always be there for Herbert if he needs to dump the ball off quickly. Want a sleeper? Look no further than Derius Davis, Johnston's teammate at TCU. This guy is blazing fast, and even though he's currently a return specialist, he has a lot of potential. If he can refine his game and become a full-time WR in this offense, defenses better watch out.

All this is good, but to be the QB1, Herbert needs to utilize his legs. Some people are concerned with the fact that his 2022 rushing yards were halved from 2021. The simple explanation is that he was playing through painkiller injections all year long due to his injury. His O-line was also inconsistent.

Those problems seem to be fixed now, as his injury is now healed while his OL is greatly improved and healthy. Analysts are even calling them a top-10 offensive line unit in the NFL, especially due to the return of Rashawn Slater. Herbert can rack up passing yards in his sleep, and if he can get back to his pre-injury running ability (and potentially improve on that), he has a shot at being the QB1.

Justin Herbert 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Justin Herbert has the potential to be a Hall of Fame quarterback. We all know this. Some even say that he can become the next Aaron Rodgers, who has four QB1 finishes (and MVPs) on his resume. With a new OC, new weapons, new offensive philosophy, an improved OL, and everyone (including himself) getting healthier, Herbert has the chance to shock the world this season and become the NFL's new "Golden Boy". Someone has to steal Mahomes and the Chiefs' thunder, so why not Herbert?

Los Angeles #Chargers Justin Herbert reportedly has looked like a even better QB in the new offense. #BoltUp

Chargers Kellen Moore is looking to take the offense to the next level. pic.twitter.com/ZitTNYyzKW

— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) August 18, 2023

Once again, I'll go with Lamar over Herbert this season, but only by a hair. Herbert has so many things going for him right now, and can finally unleash his cannon arm on the entire league without any restrictions. If you're unsure due to Lamar's injury history, picking Herbert is easily the next best choice. Herbert has been making history ever since he entered the league, and it won't be crazy to think that he can be the Chargers' first fantasy QB1 since Dan Fouts.