Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets - Buy/Sell for Fantasy Baseball (Week 12)

Trade candidates to buy or sell in fantasy baseball after Week 12 of the 2023 MLB season. Ben Rosener lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball. It's almost as important as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and witness their production improve that can truly tip the scales in your favor in terms of the standings.

The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.

Here are some candidates who are currently undervalued and worth pursuing in trades, as well as some overvalued players who you should consider dealing if they currently occupy a spot on your roster.

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Undervalued Players To Trade For

Keibert Ruiz, C, Washington Nationals

Just like last season, Keibert Ruiz is making a ton of contact at the plate. He's one of the tougher batters in the sport to get to swing and miss. Ruiz has just a 7.7% strikeout rate and a 14.2% whiff rate in 221 plate appearances so far, which both rank in the 97^th percentile or better league-wide. In fact, Ruiz’s strikeout rate is in the 100^th percentile in all of baseball.

The two stats align closely with the performance of the former Dodgers prospect during the 2022 season, where he posted an 11.5% strikeout rate and a 14.9% whiff rate across 433 plate appearances.

In both the current season and the previous one, these numbers didn't always result in a high batting average, despite the expected high batting average (xBA) numbers.

• Keibert Ruiz In 2022: 433 plate appearances, .251 average, .313 on-base percentage, .277 xBA, .271 BABIP
• Keibert Ruiz In 2023: 221 plate appearances, .230 average, .299 on-base percentage, .289 xBA, .220 BABIP

In both instances, Ruiz’s lower BABIP almost certainly was a key factor, especially for a hitter who makes so much contact. However, last season, Ruiz wasn’t making much in the way of loud contact. The catcher logged just a 32.3% hard-hit rate, a .338 xwOBAcon, a .328 xwOBA, and a 9.8% barrel rate.

This season, Ruiz has shown positive regression potential due to his low BABIP and high contact rates. Additionally, he has made significant strides in hitting the ball harder. The 24-year-old has increased his hard-hit rate to 37.5% and is posting a .362 xwOBAcon. But perhaps the biggest differences in Ruiz’s metrics are his xwOBA (.365) and barrel rate (9.8%).

The fact that he’s hitting in the rebuilding Washington Nationals' lineup dulls his fantasy ceiling a bit. But Keibert Ruiz should be considerably more productive as the season goes on. Fantasy managers in need of catching help should consider trading for him now before the increased production starts.

Kyle Schwarber, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Speaking of players with a low BABIP this year, Kyle Schwarber is one of only four qualified hitters out of 162 with a BABIP under the .200 mark. His BABIP is by far the lowest of the bunch at .174. Unfortunately, low BABIPs are nothing new for the veteran slugger.

He owns a lifetime .260 BABIP in the Majors and has finished with a figure below .250 in the category in three of the last four seasons. So far, the 30-year-old is batting .177 with a .325 on-base percentage to go along with 18 home runs in 289 plate appearances this season.

Schwarber has supplied solid fantasy numbers up to this point with the aforementioned 18 home runs, 36 RBI, and 40 runs scored for the Phillies. And while his quality of contact metrics aren’t quite at the elite standard we've seen in the past, they’re still very much above average.

Kyle Schwarber By Season Since 2017:

• 2017: 486 PA, .347 xwOBA, .459 xwOBAcon, 41.5% hard-hit rate
• 2018: 510 PA, .350 xwOBA, .450 xwOBAcon, 45% hard-hit rate
• 2019: 610 PA, .376 xwOBA, .473 xwOBAcon, 51.2% hard-hit rate
• 2020: 224 PA, .340 xwOBA, .429 xwOBAcon, 47.2% hard-hit rate
• 2021: 471 PA, .399 xwOBA, .510 xwOBAcon, 52.2% hard-hit rate
• 2022: 669 PA, .375 xwOBA, .501 xwOBAcon, 54.4% hard-hit rate
• 2023: 289 PA, .372 xwOBA, .461 xwOBAcon, 48.7% hard-hit rate

There’s some potential positive regression on the way obviously. Even a modest raise in batting average would be significant for the slugger’s fantasy ceiling this season. Schwarber has been a fixture in the top half of the Phillies lineup, with 198 of his 289 plate appearances coming in the first, second, or third spot in the batting order. He hit fifth in the order for 87 of his 90 plate appearances when he wasn't batting in the top three. With the Phillies lineup rounding into form – Philadelphia has scored the seventh-most runs in the league since May 20 – the outfielder could be a fantasy difference-maker in the coming months should his BABIP start to turn around.

Overvalued Players To Trade Away

Craig Kimbrel, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

Craig Kimbrel’s 2023 season has been hit-and-miss so far, at least where his metrics have been concerned. He’s striking out 14.04 batters per nine frames across 25 innings of work but is also pitching to a 5.04 ERA and a 4.44 FIP. What's more, the right-hander is allowing 1.80 home runs per nine innings.

Still, the veteran has provided strikeouts and some production in the saves department. He’s logged nine saves so far, including six while Jose Alvarado was on the injured list. Overall, the 35-year-old has been quite good lately, with a 2.23 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 20:4 K/BB ratio, and six saves across 12 innings from May 9 through June 8. All this production occurred with Alvarado sidelined on the injured list.

All of those factors, combined with Alvarado not pitching in the ninth inning in his first two appearances since returning from the IL, could present an opportunity for you to trade Kimbrel to a team in your league in need of saves in the near future. Although this is purely speculative, it appears highly likely that Alvarado will continue to receive the majority of work in the ninth inning this season. He has been outstanding, striking out 28 of the 63 batters he's faced over 16 1/3 innings, while only allowing three walks, two earned runs, and one home run.

Despite missing a little over a month, Alvarado still came into play on Wednesday, June 14, tied for the seventh-highest fWAR among all relievers. It’s possible that Alvarado may still be used in situations prior to the ninth inning, as evidenced by one of his four holds coming after he took over as the primary ninth-inning option for the Phillies. However, it seems unlikely that Kimbrel will contribute more than ancillary saves moving forward. Simply put, the window to trade Kimbrel is closing fast and now is the time to make a move.

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