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Outfield Draft Values for Fantasy Baseball - EDV Finds Undervalued, Overvalued Picks

Steven Kwan fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers waiver wire MLB injury news

Spring Training is flying and we're off to the races with another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered.

It's time to head into the vast outfield and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning January into February, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win

Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, “Player X is a great value at that ADP.” We've taken historical data and come up with a data set that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts: 1) HR+BA+SB 2) HR+BA, 3) SB+HR, 4) SB+BA, 5) HR, 6) SB, 7) BA.

We all know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context if necessary. EDV is not some definitive practice, just as projections are an imperfect science, but it helps sharpen the tools in your kit on draft day. Now, let's move along.

 

Top Outfield Tiers

It isn’t third base, but the outfield is surprisingly top-heavy in 2023. Twitter is alight with Underdog touts pushing OF way up. We aren’t all tournament-driven, but OFs also constitute four of the top six NFBC picks.

Ronald Acuna Jr. is first up and checks in with immense HR+SB upside, sporting a +12 in that category against EDV despite qualifying for its highest point. Aaron Judge boasts such power with modest speed and a healthy average to where he remains a top EDV buy, qualifying for the rarified triple cohort (BA+HR+SB). I’d feel wonderful with either and do a happy dance with a top-two pick.

I won't split hairs over the superstars because I understand that OF is tighter in '23 and they're all worthy cornerstones. Julio Rodriguez brings the volatility of a youngster who can carry all offensive categories so he settles in behind Acuna and Judge, but EDV still says it's a fine pick. Kyle Tucker needs to shake and bake into the top half of Houston's order to unlock the next level, but consistent results are OK here.

Yordan Alvarez now joins Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Trout in the "injury question" bucket. They're true game-breakers when they make it onto the field, but Alvarez's hand is already sore after an entire offseason. How is that going to hold up over a full 162-game season? I've seen him going behind Juan Soto and Mookie Betts now, with good reason. He's still not swinging a bat early a week after the hand report dropped on Feb. 21:

A rebounding average for Soto would make him a slam dunk, but even a lesser AVG still sees his slot in San Diego's order making good on the ADP. Betts reported to Driveline and may hold onto his power gains shown in '22, but the real story is potentially moving off from the leadoff role. That would help his R+RBI balance, while hopefully not burying him on the basepaths behind others.

 

Mid-Round Outfield Tier

While it is all negative values down toward the 60th pick, I once again acknowledge youngsters are typically undersold by projections. We hit the green again starting with Adolis Garcia and Kyle Schwarber.

Garcia’s average might sting but he’s nearly +10 in HR+SB with a hefty RBI profit margin as the heart of Texas’ order is potent. And Schwarber’s power better reflects the third round as many are drooling over his not facing an overhauled shift.

Corbin Carroll should edge his EDV as a speedster. Those looking for some well-rounded pop have the system’s blessing to pick Teoscar Hernandez and Eloy Jimenez. Jimenez does send up injury worries but Starling Marte has active ones to sweat as he recovers from core surgery.

EDV is also a fan of Tyler O'Neill, Byron Buxton, Seiya Suzuki, Jake McCarthy, Amed Rosario, and Steven Kwan. O'Neill is cutting some muscle in an attempt to stay healthy. Luckily, he has plenty to spare. No one will comfortable with Buxton but his peak is undeniably tantalizing.

Suzuki’s batting average could drop 20 points below his projected .272 mark and still meet his EDV. But now we're sweating an oblique issue, stay tuned. McCarthy went 23-of-26 on steal attempts in just 99 games and now the bases get bigger? Neat. Rosario toes the EDV’s HR+SB line but crushes the R+RBI line by ~30 thanks to his batting second.

Kwan is the highlight as a speed-average weapon with a hefty run total thanks to his leadoff slot. He had the second-best strikeout rate among all qualified hitters as a rookie alongside a walk rate near 10%. He gets on base. Despite 19 steals in 147 games and the rule changes benefitting runners, most systems give him between 12-16 for ‘23. I’ll take the over.

Other notable names that pop and/or break the mold are a pair of Yankees in Giancarlo Stanton (health?) and Harrison Bader (mouthguard?). We know the risk-reward with Stanton, but Bader’s five home runs in nine postseason games with his jaw/body tension channeled efficiently. And then Brandon Nimmo and Masataka Yoshida are undervalued avenues toward the hefty runs atop the order.

Okay, I'm cutting the text body of this short to get to the table because it is much larger than the other (infield) positions. Scroll and enjoy!

 

Top 75 Outfield vs. EDV - Full Data Table

We've got players, the cohort they qualify for (if applicable), their HR+SB projection against what EDV demands, same with their R+RBI, a similar batting average score, and notes. Blanks follow those who didn't qualify for a cohort.

Player ADP Cohort HR+SB
v. EDV
R+RBI
v. EDV
AVG Notes
Ronald Acuna Jr. 2.78 HR+SB 12 -18 3 Massive power+speed threat w/ leadoff volume, RBI only "weakness"
Aaron Judge 3.7 BA+HR+SB -2 5 -5.3 Can't project another .310+ BA but it's in his range, no complaints
Julio Rodriguez 4.1 HR+SB 5 -23 4.5 Will he encounter any sophomore slump? Ceiling is worth the top-5 ADP
Kyle Tucker 6.69 HR+SB 1 -21 3 Hurt by lower batting slot for R+RBI but HR+SB tools remain tantalizing
Yordan Alvarez 9.66 BA+HR -1.5 -18.7 -2.6 Early hand soreness a bit frightful, first one without speed element
Juan Soto 10.41 BA+SB 7 26 -3.3 .249 BABIP in '22 (career .309), xwOBA still top 1% of MLB. Trust
Mookie Betts 11.59 HR+SB -8 -6 4.5 Driveline client this offseason, must keep '22 power surge going
Fernando Tatis Jr. 17.62 BA+HR+SB 17.5 -11.3 -2.7 Riskiest high-round pick, HR+SB projection alone underscores reward
Mike Trout 19.95 BA+HR 4.5 -3.7 -4.5 Top-tier power, healthy AVG, no SB but need back to stay healthy
Michael Harris II 27.81 BA+HR+SB 3.9 5.8 -3.5 Flashy tools, power pace will regress, will he grab 2nd spot in order?
Randy Arozarena 37.33 HR+SB 9.4 -12.3 -0.6 Speed hit next gear in '22, lower K% too. Growing lineup may help R+RBI
Daulton Varsho 37.35 You're playing him at catcher 99.99% of the time anyway
Luis Robert 47.17 BA+HR+SB 3.4 -0.2 -3.1 Offseason focused on conditioning/durability, will it pay off?
Cedric Mullins II 49.66 HR+SB 14.2 -12.8 -0.1 Great HR+SB outlook due to wheels, Camden tough on overall R+RBI opps
Kyle Schwarber 51.54 HR 9.6 10.3 -4.9 Enormous pop with sneaky speed, AVG bump w/o shift despite FB ways?
Adolis Garcia 56.83 HR+SB 11.5 16.9 -5.3 EDV says he's a good buy, understand range of outcomes is wider
Teoscar Hernandez 71.45 HR 0.2 -1.7 1.5 ADP & EDV sync up in his new home
Eloy Jimenez 71.66 HR -4.5 -5 5.4 Want power bat to have more HR, R+RBI juice ideally
Corbin Carroll 74.34 SB 4.5 12.9 1.1 Still a good buy despite some recent rise in ADP
George Springer 77.26 HR+SB 0.9 6.5 2.9 Another health risk but TOR environment a nice one to buy into
Starling Marte 80.43 BA+SB 4.2 0.1 -2.6 May be limited early after offseason surgery on both groins, OK buy at risk
Bryan Reynolds 86.03 HR -3.8 -20.8 5.4 PIT will struggle to meet R+RBI projections anywhere, nice AVG base
Byron Buxton 94.97 HR+SB -1.8 2.9 0.3 Medical worries baked into cost, wouldn't pair with Robert and/or Springer!
MJ Melendez 97.75 Again, you're playing him at catcher 99.99% of the time anyway
Tyler O'Neill 100.34 HR+SB 7.5 6.5 -0.1 Tried to lay off the weights for durability, still looks like Wolverine to me
Seiya Suzuki 105.38 HR+SB 1.1 15 5.3 Undergoing MRI for oblique but assuming OK: Great buy, big target
Jake McCarthy 113.96 SB 9.5 12.2 5 If one went lead-footed power early then here's an excellent buy
Taylor Ward 118.28 HR+SB -4.7 7.3 5.2 Leading off is key, how much of pre-wall collision small sample was real?
Steven Kwan 118.61 BA+SB 0.8 32.7 -1.3 Another bat with volume value due to leadoff role
Christian Yelich 123.48 SB -0.4 36.6 2.1 Max EV still elite, but launch angle/barrel rates back to square one
Amed Rosario 124.14 SB -6.5 27.8 5.9 Double-digit HR, SB, and .280+ AVG in last 3 full seasons (no '20, duh)
Nick Castellanos 126.17 First OF-only bat to not qualify for a cohort, haven't been buying
Kris Bryant 126.34 HR -1.6 -5.3 7.3 Should provide solid AVG from Coors but overall lineup ceiling is low
Anthony Santander 128.86 HR -2.6 13.9 -1.9 More walks, fewer Ks, hit well at Camden, solid median-outcome buy
Andrew Vaughn 138.67 Second bat not to qualify, though 1B/OF eligibility helps
Giancarlo Stanton 139.49 HR 5.6 24.1 0.4 Mammoth upside if health holds, even ugly AVG still a buy per EDV
Hunter Renfroe 144.9 HR -2.1 -2.1 1.4 Close to par with EDV, if LAA lineup stays on field then R+RBI could soar
Ian Happ 152.67 HR+SB -3.3 7.2 2.2 More contact, more pulling, fewer Ks for '22 success. Well-rounded option
Brandon Nimmo 167.29 If there was a Runs Cohort, NYM's leadoff man would be in it.
Bryce Harper 168.34 If you haven't taken any risks thus far then be my guest
Mitch Haniger 170.78 Healthy Haniger can maul the ball but SF isn't kind to bats
Thairo Estrada 170.87 SB 3.9 22.1 1.9 Probably has 2B/SS/OF elig. with plus projections across the board
Harrison Bader 172.56 HR+SB 2.7 -16.5 4.4 If you buy the mouthguard effect & postseason surge then price is good
Jeff McNeil 175.97 BA 3.6 13.6 -1.7 BA w/ little category juice but NYM R+RBI opps boost stock
Lars Nootbaar 182.4 Great eye, high-end power. Consistent enough for a breakout?
Cody Bellinger 183.34 HR+SB -4.3 -12.5 -1.4 If you think MVP form returns then mobilize, projections aren't buying in
Oscar Gonzalez 183.85 Only he and Luis Robert had 14%+ SwStr% yet K% under 20%
Whit Merrifield 185.03 SB 0.3 21.1 3.6 Good dart if lacking speed later on w/ TOR aggression comments
Joey Meneses 192.05 HR 0 0.7 5.9 Small-sample basis but can drop for waiver if he flops
Alex Verdugo 197.77 BA 8.8 55.8 -5 Premier target for AVG, should rebound career-worst 6.5% HR/FB in '22
Riley Greene 198.69 New Comerica dimensions will help, please get K% down from ~30%
Seth Brown 205 HR 3.6 -10.2 -3.6 25-HR pop with double-digit steals possible works even with AVG hit
Masataka Yoshida 205.63 BA+HR 2 25.3 -3.6 ADP has not caught up to projections, healthy buy margin w/ Fenway
Andrew Benintendi 214.52 Better discipline '22 but barrel rate slipped. Can we get 150 games?
Ramon Laureano 216.47 HR+SB -3.3 -18.5 0.1 R+RBI suffers on OAK but contributes pop & speed after pick 200
Gavin Lux 222.04 Scary spring knee injury may have ended his 2023, holding breath
Josh Naylor 223.81
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 229.14
Michael Conforto 235
Bryan De La Cruz 237.57
Joc Pederson 238.36
Wil Myers 243.76 Some think he's washed, others also think it but trust GABP more
Randal Grichuk 246.03
Miguel Vargas 249.36 Job security likely increases if Gavin Lux's knee injury proves serious
Christopher Morel 249.83 SB 0.8 -0.4 -1 Fine with later dart, see if he can win adjustment battles thru '23
Esteury Ruiz 253.75 SB 13 -24.4 0.6 Those willing to eat power categories in need of speed must click here
Trey Mancini 260.39
Jesse Winker 260.66
Austin Meadows 268.16
Austin Hays 274.21
Eric Haase 282.78
Nick Gordon 286.76
Lane Thomas 288.87
Jorge Soler 294.22 HR -4.4 3.2 1.4 Beginning to rise more, but everyday power role works even in MIA park
Charlie Blackmon 296.06


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