High-End Wide Receivers to Fade

Michael Florio evaluates five high-end wide receivers who are overvalued at their current ADP price in fantasy football drafts. Should you avoid picking DeAndre Hopkins and other top WR targets early in 2020 drafts?

There is nothing worse in fantasy football than drafting a bust. Especially if you feel really good about the player heading into the season and use an early-round pick on them. That is one of the easiest ways to ruin your season, which is why we all try so hard to identify the busts before we draft them.

The one thing in identifying a bust that I think too often gets overlooked is the price it costs to acquire a player. Too many times you will hear people speak about a player’s talent and that they are too good to bust. But often what makes a player a bust is the fact that the fantasy community as a whole looks past potential pitfalls and still pulls a player up the board. Players definitely do bust; I am looking at you 2017 Terrelle Pryor! But one thing I have realized in my many years of playing fantasy football is that often the reason we view players as a bust is that they fail to live up to the lofty expectations, we (fantasy football players) put on them.

The next logical question becomes how to avoid these busts. To me, my approach has now become to look at a player’s individual talent, but also the team around him and try to identify what could go wrong and what could go right. You then have to factor in the price to acquire the player, as well as other players you can acquire in that range or later. If you realize that a player has more red flags than others in that range, that player is the most likely to bust and should be avoided. That is exactly what I will be diving into here. Many of these receivers I am writing about are extremely talented, no denying that. They will still put up numbers, but my fear is that they will not put up the numbers necessary to be going as early as they are being drafted. These players will not bust in the sense that they will be useless to your fantasy roster, but they are going off the board higher than they should be given the red flags around them.

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DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals

Hopkins is widely regarded as the best WR in the NFL. I know many will come after me for saying this, but this season, I will likely not have many, if any, shares of DHop. For the first time in years, I think you have to consider the downside when it comes to Hopkins. First, we are all excited to see him with Kyler Murray, but let’s not act like Hopkins hasn’t been surrounded by elite QB play the last two seasons. To me, this is a lateral QB move at best. But what is even more concerning to me is that Hopkins is leaving a system that would force-feed him 150 targets a season. He has seen at least 150 targets in every season since 2015 and has averaged 166 per season in that span. Will Hopkins see that kind of volume again this season? It should certainly be in question.

Last season the Cardinals had both Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk top 100 targets, but neither reached 110. And I know those guys currently can’t hold a candle to DHop’s abilities, but the Kliff Kingsbury offense is one that spreads the ball out. Last season the Cardinals ran 10 personnel (four WR formation) on 32 percent of their plays. No other team did so even 10 percent of the time. That is scary to me because a system that puts more wideouts on the field and spreads the ball is likely going to lead to fewer targets for Hopkins.

Last year he averaged 1.75 fantasy (PPR) points per target. That is on par with his average of 1.73 the past five seasons. That means on average 10 targets are worth roughly 17.3 fantasy points for Hopkins. If his targets settle more in the 130 range, which I think is very much in the realm of possibility, that 20-target loss would lead to just under a 35-point fantasy decrease. That would take Hopkins from the WR5 in 2019 to the WR13. Look, I get it. DHop is extremely talented and could still put up big numbers on a reduced number of targets. But pretending like there is no risk at all here, especially when he goes off the board on average as the WR4 still in the first round at times on FFPC, it is just too rich for my blood. There are WRs who I think can put up close or even similar numbers in the third and fourth rounds.

There are ways Hopkins could overcome a decrease in targets, but they are not ways I feel comfortable risking a top-15 overall pick on. He could be used as more of a downfield threat, but he did already have a 10.5 aDOT last season. He could see his TD rate jump but relying on that is dangerous business. Touchdowns are fluky as we have seen in recent years with DHop himself. Expecting the Cards to run a faster-paced offense and make up for a lack of target share by running more plays is not a wise investment either. Last year the Texans actually averaged one additional offensive play per game than the Cards. And the Cardinals averaged just over one more pass attempt per game.

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys

Cooper finished last season as the WR10, yet he is going off the board as the WR9. People must be expecting him to improve on his numbers from last year, which is a very dangerous expectation in my opinion. First, Cooper finished as the WR15 in PPG, so right there you can see you may be reaching a bit. But you know I came with more than just that! Last season Cooper was not even the top target in his offense when Michael Gallup was healthy. On the season Cooper finished with 19.3 percent target share and a 26.5 percent air yard share. Gallup finished with a 20.8 percent target share and a 27.9 percent air yard share. Gallup did miss two weeks, which is why Cooper finished with more targets and air yards, but when Gallup played, he was actually used more than Cooper.

The Cowboys then went out and replaced Randall Cobb with CeeDee Lamb and Jason Witten with Blake Jarwin. Both of which I think are upgrades at this point in the players' respective careers. That could mean targets could be up for grabs each week. Being inconsistent week to week would be nothing new for Cooper. That was his MO with the Raiders. Last season he had five weeks with less than seven PPR points, including one where he was completely shut out. But to take it a step further, Cooper is the only Cowboys receiver who you need to pay the ceiling price to acquire.

Last year he was the WR9, while Gallup was the WR22 and Cobb the WR44. This season Cooper’s ADP is the WR9, while Gallup is the WR30 and Lamb is the WR40. You are getting a discount on both Gallup and Lamb, likely because many drafters worry about the weekly volume, but no discount at all on Cooper. And the worst part is you are not getting a discount on the asset that already costs the most to acquire. As excited as I am for the Cowboys passing offense this season Cooper simply is too much risk at such an elevated cost. I will gladly wait four rounds or so and nab Gallup. And I will be ecstatic if I can wait seven rounds or so and end up with Lamb.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Kupp looked like a top-five WR for the first half of the season. He averaged 20.95 fantasy PPG in the first half. But in the second half, that number dipped to 12.86 per game. He caught five touchdowns in each half, but those were much more vital in the second half. In the first half, he was averaging 7.3 catches and 99 receiving yards per game. In the second half that dwindled to 4.5 catches and 46.1 yards per game. But what worries me even more is the offensive change the Rams made that led to Kupp’s decreased production. The Rams made a switch from running primarily 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) and ran more 12 personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB). Kupp struggles against man coverage, which led to him playing fewer snaps in the 12 personnel as you can see below:

Additionally, Kupp was really the third option for the Rams in the final five weeks of the season (see below). Kupp right now costs a top-12 WR price in FFPC drafts. I would much rather wait a round or two (depending on the site) and nab his teammate Robert Woods.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

Sutton broke out last season finishing as the WR19 in PPR leagues. He is a great talent and there is no denying that. But his ADP is up to WR19 going in the fourth round on average. That means drafters are expecting similar results as last season. Sutton was the benefactor of having a lack of weapons around him last season. People often think that a lack of other weapons means defenses can key on the top player, but the truth is at most they are seeing a double-team. The player will often see a ton of volume in those circumstances and that is exactly what happened with Sutton last season.

He had a 25.8 percent target share, the fifth-highest in the NFL. He also led the NFL with a 43.1 percent air yard share. Those numbers remained pretty similar with Drew Lock. Sutton posted a 25.4 percent target share and 40.2 percent air yard share with the rookie QB. The Broncos also suddenly have a lot more weapons around Lock. They drafted Jerry Jeudy in the first round. Noah Fant is expected to take a big step forward in year two, plus they have Melvin Gordon III and Phillip Lindsay in the backfield. Given those weapons, it would not be surprising at all to see a dip in both target and air yard share for Sutton.

But a drop in targets and air yard share is not the only concern for Sutton. One fact that definitely gets overlooked is that Sutton, despite such a large workload, did not have much of a high ceiling. I think people perceive him as a high-ceiling receiver because he is a deep threat and a good red zone option, but last season he did not finish a single week as a top-five WR. He only twice finished inside the top 10. He finished as a top-20 WR six times, which equates to 37.5 percent of his games. That was the 24th-highest mark among WRs last season. Despite a top-five WR workload, Sutton was unable to perform as more than a WR2. Now this season he comes with volume concerns and people are still willing to pay full price for last season? I just can’t get behind that, especially given some of the other WRs that go in his range.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

Allen has long been my guy. Ever since he was dubbed as “injury-prone” after tearing his ACL and rupturing his kidney, I saw that there was a buying opportunity with Allen. But for the first time maybe ever, I am out on my guy Keenan Allen. Allen finished as the WR6 last season but if you had him last year like I did you know his season was not nearly as much fun. He averaged 29.23 fantasy PPG in Weeks 1-3, scoring a total of 87.7 fantasy points. That means he scored 34 percent of his season-long fantasy points in those three games. From Week 4 on Allen performed as the WR20. He averaged 13.37 fantasy PPG and topped 20 fantasy points just twice. He was held in single-digits four times. But his numbers being inflated is only a part of the reason I am out on Keenan this season.

The other is the change in QB. Last season the Chargers threw the ball 63.3 percent of the time, the sixth most in the NFL. Tyrod Taylor was the Bills' starting QB from 2015 through 2017. In 2015 the Bills passed the ball a league-low 49.9 percent. In 2016, when now Chargers HC Anthony Lynn was the offensive coordinator for Tyrod and the Bills, they threw the ball 51.4 percent, the second-fewest in the NFL. In 2017 that number was 51.8 percent, the second-lowest again. Perhaps the reason for the lack of passing was because Rex Ryan was the coach and he wanted to “ground and pound.”

The Chargers seem like a team that will try to rely on their defense and run game this season. Additionally, in that time with the Bills only Sammy Watkins (218.8) in 2015 scored over 200 PPR points. Robert Woods twice scored over 100 fantasy points, but no other WR did so with Taylor. The Chargers' weapons are better than the Bills had, but I am not sure Taylor can get the most out of Allen, Hunter Henry, and Mike Williams. I worry even more about his ability to make them consistent weekly options. I think Allen will be inconsistent and I do not trust him to put up the typical numbers he has with Rivers at the helm. I am not willing to pay a top-20 WR price for Keenan. I would much prefer him as a WR3 but that simply doesn’t happen very often.

Here are five big-name WRs that I simply do not feel comfortable paying the asking price to draft them. Who are some WRs you think are overvalued and are fading? Hit me up on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio, and let me know!

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