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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Keon Coleman

a Healthy Scratch for Non-Performance Reasons
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate Not Dealing With Long-Term Injuries
Tua Tagovailoa

Future With Dolphins Tied to Mike McDaniel Returning
A.J. Brown

No Change in Philadelphia as A.J. Brown Still Frustrated
Viktor Arvidsson

Injured in Saturday's Win
Nick Foligno

Ruled Out for Four Weeks
Samuel Honzek

Hurt in Collision With Teammate
Drew Doughty

Exits With Lower-Body Injury
Charlie McAvoy

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Against Canadiens
Thomas Harley

Out Week-to-Week
Travis Hunter

to Remain a Two-Way Player in 2026
Bam Knight

is Expected to Play on Sunday
CFB

Virginia Tech Close To Naming James Franklin As Head Coach
C.J. Stroud

Week 12 Status Unclear
Quentin Johnston

Expected to Play in Week 11
Drake London

Should Play Vs. Panthers
Davante Adams

Trending Toward Playing
Brian Thomas Jr.

On the Wrong Side of Questionable
Calvin Ridley

Expected to Play in Week 11
Coby White

Could Make Season Debut Sunday
Josh Giddey

Set to Return Sunday
Zion Williamson

Tagged as Questionable for Sunday
Ja Morant

Exits With Calf Injury Saturday
Alex Caruso

Injures Hand, Won't Return Saturday
Domantas Sabonis

Considered Questionable for Sunday
Paolo Banchero

Out Again on Sunday
Anthony Davis

Listed as Doubtful for Sunday
Aaron Nesmith

Ruled Out for at Least Four Weeks
Victor Wembanyama

Questionable for Sunday
Tari Eason

to Miss 4-6 Weeks
Julian Strawther

Will Play on Saturday Versus the Timberwolves
Marcus Smart

Out With Illness Saturday
Cameron Johnson

Ruled Out on Saturday Evening
Rui Hachimura

Won't Play on Saturday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Officially Available Versus the Lakers
Jeff Skinner

Placed on Injured Reserve
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Available on Saturday Night
Matt Duchene

Continues to Sit Saturday
Thomas Harley

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Kaapo Kakko

Out Week-to-Week
Joseph Woll

Starts on Saturday
John Carlson

Out on Saturday
Rasmus Dahlin

Rejoins Sabres Lineup Saturday
Jack Hughes

to Miss Eight Weeks After Finger Surgery
Luguentz Dort

Will Return Versus Charlotte
Darius Garland

Remains Out on Saturday Night
Zach Edey

Cleared to Make 2025 Debut on Saturday
Cedric Coward

Available Against Cleveland
Sam LaPorta

Placed on Injured Reserve
J.K. Dobbins

Will Undergo Season-Ending Surgery to Repair "Significant" Foot Injury
Tyler Bertuzzi

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Andre Burakovsky

Available Saturday
Alex Nedeljkovic

Available for Saturday's Action
Filip Hronek

Pulled by Concussion Spotter Friday
Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Hurts Ankle in Friday's Win
Seth Jarvis

Not Expected to Be Out for Long
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Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
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Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year
NFL

Bill Belichick Won't Pursue NFL Head-Coaching Vacancies
Khalil Shakir

in the Clear to Play in Week 11
Bam Knight

Considered Questionable for Week 11
Brian Thomas Jr.

Tagged as Questionable for Week 11
Calvin Ridley

Listed as Questionable for Week 11
John Gibson

Fine for Saturday
Justin Thomas

Will Miss Start Of 2026 After Undergoing Back Surgery
J.K. Dobbins

Out in Week 11 and for "Foreseeable Future"
Rashod Bateman

Ruled Out for Week 11
Sam LaPorta

Ruled Out for Week 11 With Back Injury
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

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Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
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Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

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Carlos Prates

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Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

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Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Says There's a "50-50" Chance he Returns to Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year
CFB

Still No Update on Jermod McCoy's Return Timeline
Sami Valimaki

Riding Momentum Into Bermuda
Matthieu Pavon

Struggling Through a Rough Season
Taylor Montgomery

Hopes to Get Back on Track at Port Royal
Ben Martin

a Risky Play at Bermuda Championship
Mark Hubbard

Primed for a Bounce-Back Week in Bermuda
Lee Hodges

Searching for a Spark in Bermuda
Stephen Vogt

Wins Back-to-Back AL Manager of the Year Honors
Milwaukee Brewers

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager of the Year Again
Patrick Fishburn

Looking to Bounce Back in Bermuda
Eric Cole

Carrying Momentum into Bermuda
Tommy Edman

to Have Ankle Surgery Next Week
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Unlikely to Trade Ketel Marte
Roman Anthony

to Have a Normal Offseason
Sahith Theegala

Finishes Tied for 27th at Bank of Utah Championship
Sam Stevens

Finishes Tied for 36th at Baycurrent Classic
Patrick Rodgers

Finishes Tied For Sixth at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke List

Finishes 75th at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied for 63rd at World Wide Technology Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied for 14th at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 46th at World Wide Technology Championship
Blades Brown

Finishes Tied for 18th at Korn Ferry Tour Championship

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP