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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Dak Prescott

in Full Command Monday Night With Four Touchdown Passes
George Pickens

Erupts for 144 Yards, Touchdown in Monday Night Win
Jrue Holiday

Unlikely to Play Tuesday
CeeDee Lamb

George Pickens Benched for First Drive
LeBron James

Officially Listed as Questionable for Tuesday
Jose Altuve

Undergoes Foot Surgery
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Exits Monday's Game With Groin Injury
Julian Strawther

Out on Monday
Cameron Johnson

Cleared for Action Monday
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Available Against Bulls
Zaccharie Risacher

Considered Questionable for Tuesday's Game
Onyeka Okongwu

Iffy for Tuesday
Kristaps Porzingis

May Miss Another Game Tuesday
Jalen Suggs

Listed as Questionable for Tuesday
Paolo Banchero

to Remain Out Tuesday
Ayo Dosunmu

Playing on Minutes Restriction Monday
Tre Jones

Still Out Monday
Saddiq Bey

Won't Play Against OKC
Zion Williamson

Still Out on Monday Night
Jamison Battle

Available Monday
Ochai Agbaji

Remains Out Monday
Alex Singleton

Broncos Optimistic Patrick Surtain, Alex Singleton Will Return After the Bye
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful Again in Week 12
Ausar Thompson

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Jalen Duren

Returns Against Pacers
Shedeur Sanders

Expected to Make First Career Start in Week 12
Cade Cunningham

Remains Out Monday
Coby White

Sits Out Monday's Game
Josh Jacobs

Dealing With Knee Contusion
Mikael Granlund

Unavailable Monday
Alex Bregman

Red Sox Going for Either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso?
Conor Garland

Misses Monday's Game
Eetu Luostarinen

Out on Monday
Drake London

Considered "Week-to-Week"
Drew Doughty

Listed as Week-to-Week
Ja'Marr Chase

Being Suspended for One Game for Unsportsmanlike Conduct
John Carlson

a Game-Time Call Monday
Viktor Arvidsson

Out Week-to-Week
Charlie McAvoy

Out Against Hurricanes
CFB

James Franklin to be Virginia Tech's Next Head Coach
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers Won't Open Brandon Aiyuk's Practice Window This Week
Joe Burrow

Could Do 11-on-11 Work This Week in Practice
Michael Penix Jr.

Heads to Injured Reserve, Could Need Full Knee Reconstruction
Tyrod Taylor

Taking Over as Jets' Starting QB
Josh Jacobs

' Knee Injury is Not Serious, but he Could Miss Week 12
Lane Johnson

Expected to Miss 4-6 Weeks With Foot Injury
Drake London

Could Miss Extended Time With PCL Sprain
Michael Penix Jr.

Knee Injury is "Potentially Season-Ending"
Jaxson Dart

Remains in Concussion Protocol, Status for Week 12 Unclear
Ja'Marr Chase

NFL Will Review Week 11 Scuffle Between Ja'Marr Chase and Jalen Ramsey
CFB

Fernando Mendoza the Clear Heisman Trophy Favorite?
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Beau Pribula Has Chance to Face Oklahoma on Saturday
Aaron Rodgers

Dealing With a Wrist Fracture, Pushing to Play Sunday
Mitchell Marner

Establishes Vegas Record Sunday
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Logs Two Assists in Overtime Victory
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Limited to Handful of Minutes Sunday
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Suffers Lower-Body Injury
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Agrees to $85 Million Extension With Kings
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Gets Dominated
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Zhang Weili

Gets Outclassed
Valentina Shevchenko

Wins Unanimous Decision At UFC 322
Sean Brady

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
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Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
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Carlos Prates Becomes The First Man To Knock Out Leon Edwards
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Suffers Brutal First-Round Knockout Loss
Beneil Dariush

Benoit Saint Denis Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 16 Seconds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Clears 100-Yard Mark Again in Loss to Rams
Josh Naylor

Mariners Finalizing Five-Year Contract
Scott Mayfield

Available Sunday
NYI

Max Shabanov Returns From 12-Game Absence Sunday
Samuel Honzek

Out Week-to-Week
Kirby Dach

Sidelined for 4-6 Weeks
Thatcher Demko

Considered Week-to-Week
Filip Hronek

Good to Go Sunday
Quinn Hughes

Back in Action Sunday
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate Not Dealing With Long-Term Injuries
CFB

Virginia Tech Close To Naming James Franklin As Head Coach
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Aroldis Chapman

Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year
Justin Thomas

Will Miss Start Of 2026 After Undergoing Back Surgery
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 322 Co-Main Event
Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

Set For Title Eliminator Bout
Carlos Prates

A Favorite At UFC 322
Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set To Open Up UFC 322 Main Card
Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Says There's a "50-50" Chance he Returns to Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year
CFB

Still No Update on Jermod McCoy's Return Timeline
Sami Valimaki

Riding Momentum Into Bermuda
Matthieu Pavon

Struggling Through a Rough Season
Taylor Montgomery

Hopes to Get Back on Track at Port Royal
Ben Martin

a Risky Play at Bermuda Championship
Mark Hubbard

Primed for a Bounce-Back Week in Bermuda
Lee Hodges

Searching for a Spark in Bermuda

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP