👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Isaiah Likely

Remains Well-Positioned for Mid-Career Breakout Following NFL Draft
Jauan Jennings

' Dynasty Value Fading Following NFL Draft?
Luther Burden III

Poised for Breakout Season in Chicago?
CFB

Brendan Sorsby Facing Potential Permanent Loss of Eligibility
MarShawn Lloyd

Is MarShawn Lloyd a Dynasty Buy-Low Candidate Following NFL Draft?
Emanuel Wilson

Dynasty Value Fading After Seahawks' Draft Addition
Jalen Nailor

Remains Poised for Prominent Role in Las Vegas Following NFL Draft
Manny Machado

Departs Early With Undisclosed Injury on Monday
Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Fire Manager Rob Thomson
Elmer Rodríguez

Yankees to Promote Top Pitching Prospect Elmer Rodriguez
Pete Fairbanks

Pulled on Monday With "Unusual Sensation" in his Thumb
Jaylin Noel

Could Find Meaningful Role Out of Slot
Dylan Sampson

in a Good Spot After NFL Draft
Kirk Cousins

a Low-Cost Dynasty Add That Could Pay Dividends
Mikhail Sergachev

Has Three Assists in Overtime Loss
George Holani

One of the Draft's Biggest Losers
Brett Howden

Records Three Points in Vital Win
Kendre Miller

Not Guaranteed a Roster Spot with Saints
Rasmus Ristolainen

Registers Two Assists in Game 5 Loss
Arturs Silovs

Helps Penguins Survive for Second Time
Sidney Crosby

Delivers Two Assists in Elimination-Game Win
NAS

Predators Pick Up KHL Standout Vitali Pinchuk
Paolo Banchero

Efficiency Woes Continue in Game 4
Julius Randle

Leads Timberwolves With 27 Points Monday
Rickie Fowler

Rides History into the Blue Monster at Doral
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Records Big Triple-Double as Nuggets Stay Alive
Keegan Bradley

on Good Run Heading into Cadillac Championship
Chet Holmgren

Posts Impressive Double-Double in Game 4 Win
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Notches Efficient 31 Points in Closeout Game
Franz Wagner

Scheduled for MRI on Tuesday
Giancarlo Stanton

Heading to Injured List With Calf Strain
New England Patriots

Mike Vrabel Returns to the Patriots on Monday
Tyree Wilson

Heading into Contract Year With New Team
Calijah Kancey

Buccaneers Pick Up Fifth-Year Option on Calijah Kancey
Jalen Carter

Eagles Exercise Fifth-Year Option on Jalen Carter
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Pick Up Nolan Smith's Fifth-Year Option
Keon Coleman

Bills Aren't Giving Up on Keon Coleman
Aaron Rodgers

Former Steelers Coach Thinks Aaron Rodgers Will Return to Pittsburgh
Chris Gotterup

Looks to Continue Big-Game Hunting at Cadillac Championship
George Pickens

hasn't Signed his Franchise Tag With Dallas
Jason Day

Looks to Bring Experience Back to the Blue Monster
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Remains Highly Rated by Heat
Aaron Gordon

Won't Play Monday Night
Tyler Herro

to Undergo "Preemptive Procedure" on Foot
Cameron Young

Returns to Action For Cadillac Championship
Travis Bazzana

Guardians Calling Up Former First Overall Pick Travis Bazzana
Bam Adebayo

Remains Untouchable for Heat
Sam Burns

Looks to Have Big Impact at PGA Tour's Return to Doral
Anthony Edwards

Officially Listed as Week-to-Week
Jordan Goodwin

Still Out Monday
Cooper Flagg

Wins Rookie of the Year Award
Kevin Huerter

is Available to Play in Game 4
Joel Embiid

is Probable for Game 5
Austin Reaves

Could Return for Game 5
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Officially Won't Play During First-Round Series
Jonathan Isaac

to Remain Out for Game 4
Will Smith

Back in Action in Series Opener Against Marlins
Josh Naylor

Back in Starting Lineup on Monday
Jason Zucker

Probable for Game 5 Against Bruins
Josh Norris

Could Return to Action Tuesday
Nikita Zadorov

Questionable for Game 5
Viktor Arvidsson

Considered Questionable for Tuesday
Nils Lundkvist

Won't Play Tuesday
Yakov Trenin

Could Be an Option Tuesday
Mats Zuccarello

Questionable for Game 5
Carson Hocevar

Scores his First Career NASCAR Cup Series Victory at Talladega
Chris Buescher

Misses out on Winning at Talladega by Finishing Second
Alex Bowman

Earns First Top-Five Finish at Talladega Since Returning From Injury
Chase Elliott

Scores A Fourth-Place Finish at Talladega
Zane Smith

Nabs First Top-Five Finish of the 2026 Season at Talladega
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Does Marvin Harrison Jr. Still Carry High-End Dynasty Upside?
Marquise Brown

Sliding Down Eagles' Depth Chart Following 2026 Draft
CFB

Texas Tech Quarterback Brendan Sorsby Enters Rehab
Youssef Zalal

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Aljamain Sterling

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Norma Dumont

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 116
Joselyne Edwards

Scores Upset Win
Alexander Hernandez

Gets Dominated
Alexander Hernandez

Rafa Garcia Dominates Alexander Hernandez
Adrian Luna Martinetti

Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
Davey Grant

Gets Back In The Win Column
Manny Machado

Clubs Two Homers, Starting to Turn Things Around?
Brandon Hagel

Pops Up With Two Goals in Sunday's Win
Nathan MacKinnon

Records Three Points in Series-Clincher
Bowen Byram

Extends Goal Streak to Three Games
John Carlson

Delivers Two Assists in Game 4 Victory
Connor McDavid

Bags Pair of Power-Play Assists in 100th Playoff Game
Jason Zucker

Makes Early Exit in Blowout Win
De'Aaron Fox

Notches Game-High 28 Points Sunday
Joel Embiid

Returns With Double-Double
Jayson Tatum

Logs 30-Point Double-Double in Sunday's Win
Emil Andrae

Expected to Rejoin Flyers Lineup Monday
Matvei Michkov

Set to Be Scratched for Game 5
Logan O'Hoppe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List Due to Left-Wrist Fracture
Denny Hamlin

Is Denny Hamlin Worth Rostering for Talladega?
NASCAR

Is Bubba Wallace Playable in Talladega DFS Lineups?
Josh Naylor

Absent on Sunday With Quad Tightness
Ryan Helsley

Returns From Bereavement List on Sunday
Steven Kwan

Back in Sunday's Lineup
Brent Rooker

Activated and Starting on Sunday Against Rangers
Roman Anthony

Returns as DH on Sunday
Tyler Reddick

Stay Away From Tyler Reddick at Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Can Ryan Blaney Shake Off The Bad Luck at Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Could Contend For Another Talladega Win
Kyle Busch

an Easy DFS Pick at Talladega
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. a High-Risk, High-Reward Pick at Talladega
Todd Gilliland

a Sleeper to Watch at Talladega
Brad Keselowski

Is Brad Keselowski Worth Rostering for Talladega Lineups?
Chase Briscoe

Could Chase Briscoe be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Talladega Lineups?
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Managers Trust Christopher Bell at Talladega?
Ty Gibbs

Is A DFS Risk for Talladega Lineups
Boston Red Sox

Red Sox Fire Manager Alex Cora and Other Coaches
Steven Kwan

Scratched With Neck Stiffness
Trey Yesavage

Returning From Injured List on Tuesday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Heading to the Injured List With Oblique Strain
MLB

Saturday's Mets-Rockies Game Postponed Due to Weather
Giancarlo Stanton

Exits With Leg Tightness on Friday
Youssef Zalal

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Main Event
Aljamain Sterling

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 116
Joselyne Edwards

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Co-Main Event
Norma Dumont

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Alexander Hernandez

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 116
Rafa Garcia

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Adrian Luna Martinetti

Set For His UFC Debut
Davey Grant

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF