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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Alvin Kamara

Doesn't Practice on Wednesday
Lukas Dostal

Out Wednesday Night
Sean Durzi

Available Against Canadiens
Thomas Chabot

to Remain Out Wednesday
Jared McCann

Expected to Rejoin Kraken Lineup Wednesday
Andre Burakovsky

a Game-Time Decision Wednesday
Zach Edey

Good to Go Versus New Orleans
Mikko Rantanen

Returns to Stars Lineup Wednesday
J.K. Dobbins

Could Return Later This Season
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Available on Wednesday
Mark Stone

Ready to Return Wednesday
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Good to go on Wednesday
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Norman Powell

Back in Action Wednesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Ruled Out on Wednesday Evening
Andrew Wiggins

Will Suit Up Against Milwaukee
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

a Game-Time Decision on Wednesday
Terry McLaurin

Plans to Play on Sunday Night
Dru Smith

Available Versus Bucks
Miami Heat

Jamie Jaquez Jr. Available for Wednesday's Matchup With Milwaukee
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Upgraded to Probable Against Bucks
Pat Connaughton

Sidelined on Wednesday
Dylan Harper

Set to Suit Up Wednesday
Jonathan Kuminga

Sent to G League on Wednesday
Landry Shamet

Sidelined at Least Four Weeks
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers Won't Open Brandon Aiyuk's Practice Window This Week
Joe Burrow

Bengals Officially Activate Joe Burrow for a Return on Thanksgiving
C.J. Stroud

Practicing Wednesday
Trey Benson

Spotted at Practice on Wednesday
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Back at Practice Wednesday
DeVonta Smith

Missing From Practice Again on Wednesday
Josh Hader

Says his Shoulder is "Back to Normal"
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks "Actively Listening" on Ketel Marte
Jaxson Dart

to be a Full Participant at Wednesday's Practice
Dalton Kincaid

has "a Chance" to Play in Week 13
Drake London

"Doubtful" to Return from Knee Injury in Week 13
Jayden Daniels

Could Return in Week 14
Aaron Rodgers

Slated to Return in Week 13
Baker Mayfield

Could Play This Week
Josh Jacobs

"Good to Go" in Pivotal NFC North Matchup on Thanksgiving
Steven Adams

Ruled Out Wednesday Against Warriors
George Pickens

Expected to Play Thursday Against the Chiefs
J.J. McCarthy

Not Expected to Play Sunday in Seattle
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Questionable With Hip Soreness On Wednesday
Grayson Allen

Sidelined For Sixth Straight Game
Dylan Harper

Nearing Return From Calf Strain
Josh Norris

Nearing Return
Kevin Lankinen

Not Traveling With Canucks
Zach Edey

Status in Doubt Ahead of Pelicans Matchup
Zach Werenski

Escapes Serious Injury, May Play Wednesday
Auston Matthews

Could Be an Option Wednesday
Neemias Queta

Ruled Out For Wednesday's Contest
Jason Robertson

Scores in Seventh Consecutive Game
Wyatt Johnston

Ends Dry Spell With Four-Point Performance
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

May Skip Wednesday's Contest
DeVonta Smith

Listed as DNP on Tuesday
Vinnie Hinostroza

to Miss 4-6 Weeks
Pyotr Kochetkov

Dealing With Undisclosed Injury
Tristan Jarry

Expected to Be Available Wednesday
Evgenii Dadonov

Doubtful for Wednesday
J.T. Miller

Joins Team for Road Trip
Joel Kiviranta

Ready to Return Wednesday
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Expected to Return on Saturday
Jauan Jennings

Won't be Suspended
Omarion Hampton

Chargers Open Omarion Hampton's Practice Window
J.T. Realmuto

Red Sox Showing Interest in J.T. Realmuto
Sonny Gray

Red Sox Acquire Sonny Gray From the Cardinals
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Makai Lemon, Skyler Bell Named Biletnikoff Award Finalists
Sam Reinhart

Extends Scoring Streak With Three-Point Effort
Shohei Ohtani

to Play for Team Japan in 2026 World Baseball Classic
Colorado Rockies

Warren Schaeffer to Stick Around as Rockies Manager in 2026
CFB

Chris Bell Out for Rivalry Matchup Against Kentucky
Ryan Helsley

Tigers Eyeing Ryan Helsley as a Starter
Dan Hooker

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Marcus Semien

Shipped to the Mets on Sunday
Arman Tsarukyan

Gets Submission Win
Brandon Nimmo

Traded to Texas
Belal Muhammad

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Belal Muhammad

Ian Machado Garry Outpoints Belal Muhammad
Alonzo Menifield

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Volkan Oezdemir

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jack Hermansson

Gets Knocked Out
Jack Hermansson

Myktybek Orolbai Knocks Out Jack Hermansson
Shamil Gaziev

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Shines At UFC Qatar
Tagir Ulanbekov

Suffers Third-Round Submission Loss
Kyoji Horiguchi

Makes Triumphant UFC Return
Adolis García

Rangers Non-Tender Adolis Garcia on Friday
CFB

Beau Pribula Expected to Start Against Oklahoma
Dan Hooker

An Underdog At UFC Qatar
Arman Tsarukyan

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Ian Machado Garry

A Favorite At UFC Qatar
Belal Muhammad

Looks To Bounce Back
Alonzo Menifield

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Volkan Oezdemir

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Myktybek Orolbai

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Jack Hermansson

Makes His Welterweight Debut
Kyoji Horiguchi

Returns To The UFC

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP