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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Sam Merrill

and Craig Porter Jr. Out Monday
RJ Barrett

Sidelined Versus Cleveland
Ridly Greig

Still Out Monday
De'Andre Hunter

Out Versus Raptors
Baker Mayfield

Dealing With Low-Grade Shoulder Sprain
Thomas Chabot

Misses Monday's Matchup
Mitchell Robinson

Under the Weather, Out Versus Brooklyn
Kirill Marchenko

Out Monday
Jarrett Allen

Out of Action Again on Monday
J.T. Miller

Unavailable Monday
Andrew Wiggins

Norman Powell Out on Monday Night
Brayden Point

Out Against Flyers
Darius Garland

Sidelined on Monday
Nikita Kucherov

Good to Go Monday
Chris Godwin

Buccaneers Plan to "Ramp Up" Chris Godwin's Usage
Colorado Rockies

Warren Schaeffer to Stick Around as Rockies Manager in 2026
Ashton Jeanty

Ankle Injury isn't Severe
Jayden Daniels

to Practice This Week, Considered a Long Shot for Week 13
C.J. Stroud

Remains in Concussion Protocol
Mike Evans

Could Return Before End of Regular Season
J.J. McCarthy

in Concussion Protocol
Tyrod Taylor

to Remain the Jets' Starting QB
Shedeur Sanders

to Make Another Start for Browns in Week 13
Tee Higgins

Won't Play on Thanksgiving
Joe Burrow

Bengals Expect Joe Burrow to Play on Thursday
Baker Mayfield

Not Being Ruled Out for Week 13
CFB

Chris Bell Out for Rivalry Matchup Against Kentucky
New York Giants

Giants Fire Defensive Coordinator Shane Bowen
Tee Higgins

in the Concussion Protocol
Scott Wedgewood

Gives Avalanche Second Consecutive Shutout
Macklin Celebrini

Makes History During Multi-Point Performance
Joey Daccord

Posts Shutout in Losing Effort
David Rittich

Keeps Kraken Quiet
Jesper Wallstedt

Picks Up Third Shutout of the Season
Rasmus Andersson

Extends Point Streak With Three Assists
Davante Adams

Catches Two Touchdowns in Sunday Night Win
Baker Mayfield

has Sprained Shoulder, Will Undergo MRI Monday
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Fire Offensive Coordinator Chip Kelly
Ryan Helsley

Tigers Eyeing Ryan Helsley as a Starter
Quinshon Judkins

Salvages his Day With Two Trips to the End Zone
Alvin Kamara

Dealing With MCL Sprain, Timetable Unclear
Michael Wilson

has Double-Digit Catches, Over 100 Yards for Second Straight Week
Baker Mayfield

Doubtful to Return on Sunday Night With Shoulder Injury
Dan Hooker

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Marcus Semien

Shipped to the Mets on Sunday
Arman Tsarukyan

Gets Submission Win
Brandon Nimmo

Traded to Texas
Belal Muhammad

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Aaron Gordon

Sidelined 4-6 Weeks with Hamstring Strain
Belal Muhammad

Ian Machado Garry Outpoints Belal Muhammad
Alonzo Menifield

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Volkan Oezdemir

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jack Hermansson

Gets Knocked Out
Jack Hermansson

Myktybek Orolbai Knocks Out Jack Hermansson
Shamil Gaziev

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Shines At UFC Qatar
Dereck Lively II

Out with Foot Issue Again
Tagir Ulanbekov

Suffers Third-Round Submission Loss
Anthony Davis

Doubtful With Calf Strain Against Miami
Kyoji Horiguchi

Makes Triumphant UFC Return
MON

Alexandre Texier Joins Canadiens
Goga Bitadze

a Very Late Scratch on Sunday Night
Ryan Dunn

Ruled Out with Wrist Sprain
Jason Dickinson

Returns to Action Sunday
Elias Lindholm

Activated From Injured Reserve
Mikko Rantanen

Suspended for One Game
Neal Pionk

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Sunday
Donovan Clingan

Upgraded to Available vs. Thunder
Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Out Week-to-Week
Robert Williams III

Sidelined Against Thunder
Anthony Black

Entering the Starting Lineup Versus Boston
Alexander Romanov

Out 5-6 Months Due to Shoulder Surgery
Goga Bitadze

Getting the Start on Sunday Night
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic Remains Out Sunday
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Sidelined on Sunday Evening
Tre Mann

Returns to Action Sunday
Wendell Carter Jr.

Ruled Out on Sunday Night
Luke Kennard

Misses Sunday's Contest
Sidney Crosby

Records 500th Multi-Point Game
Mackenzie Blackwood

Posts 35-Save Shutout
Adolis García

Rangers Non-Tender Adolis Garcia on Friday
CFB

Beau Pribula Expected to Start Against Oklahoma
Dan Hooker

An Underdog At UFC Qatar
Arman Tsarukyan

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Ian Machado Garry

A Favorite At UFC Qatar
Belal Muhammad

Looks To Bounce Back
Alonzo Menifield

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Volkan Oezdemir

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Myktybek Orolbai

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Jack Hermansson

Makes His Welterweight Debut
Kyoji Horiguchi

Returns To The UFC
Elly De La Cruz

Played Through Partially Torn Quad to End 2025
Tarik Skubal

Tigers "Doubtful" to Trade Tarik Skubal
Raisel Iglesias

Returning to the Braves on One-Year Deal
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Continue Fall Run at RSM Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Looking to Bounce Back at RSM Classic
Tom Hoge

Looking to Regain Form at RSM Classic
Joe Highsmith

Searching for Turnaround at RSM Classic
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Build on T11 Finish in Bermuda
Austin Eckroat

Searching for Momentum at RSM Classic
Joel Dahmen

Trying to Find Form at the RSM Classic
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful to Play Against Western Kentucky
Michael Thorbjornsen

Hopes to End 2025 Campaign With Another Solid Finish
Andrew Novak

Looks to End 2025 Season on High Note at RSM Classic
Harry Higgs

Teetering for PGA Tour Card in 2026
PGA

Nico Echavarria has the Potential to Contend at the RSM Classic
Sam Stevens

Finishing Out Year in Georgia
Seamus Power

Playing Better at the Right Time
Beau Hossler

Roller Coaster Comes to Saint Simons Island
Quade Cummins

The Time is Now for Quade Cummins in Georgia
Austin Cook

Needs a Win at the RSM Classic
Cameron Champ

on the PGA Tour Card Bubble
Grayson Rodriguez

Shipped to Angels
Taylor Ward

Orioles Acquire Taylor Ward From Angels
Shota Imanaga

Accepts Cubs Qualifying Offer
Brandon Woodruff

Returning to Milwaukee in 2026
Denny McCarthy

Looking For Another Solid Finish at RSM Classic
Si Woo Kim

Looking To Use Current Momentum to Flip Script at RSM Classic
Mackenzie Hughes

a Good Bounce-Back Candidate at RSM Classic
Harris English

Making 14th Start at This Week's RSM Classic
Konnor Griffin

Could Compete for Starting Shortstop Job in 2026
Gleyber Torres

Accepts Tigers Qualifying Offer

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP