X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Lauri Markkanen

Back on Saturday Night
Keyonte George

Available Versus Golden State
PJ Hall

Starting Again on Saturday Night
Joel Embiid

Upgraded to Available on Saturday
Karl-Anthony Towns

Returning on Saturday Night
George Kittle

Officially Active for Week 18
Ricky Pearsall

Inactive for Saturday's Game
Joel Kiviranta

Misses Road Trip
Gavin Brindley

Out Saturday
Casey DeSmith

Granted Leave of Absence
Tanner Jeannot

Remains Absent Saturday
Trevor Moore

Won't Play Saturday Night
Shayne Gostisbehere

Set to Return Saturday
William Nylander

Misses Fourth Straight Game
CFB

DJ Lagway Expected To Visit Florida State
Jalen Suggs

to Undergo Further Testing on Knee Injury
Devin Vassell

to Miss "More Than a Few Games"
Davante Adams

Unlikely to Play in Regular-Season Finale
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Dealing with Toe Injury Ahead of Saturday
Lauri Markkanen

Could Miss Second Straight Game
Keyonte George

Could Miss Another Game with Illness
Bam Adebayo

Likely Available Saturday vs. Minnesota
Joel Embiid

Expected to Suit Up Saturday vs. Knicks
Draymond Green

Set to Return Saturday After Rest Day
Cason Wallace

Exits Early with Knee Contusion
Maxime Raynaud

Leaves Game with Apparent Knee Injury
Josh Hart

to Miss at Least Another Week
Ace Bailey

to Miss Another Game Saturday vs. Warriors
Ivica Zubac

Cleared to Play Saturday vs. Celtics
Jake DeBrusk

Records Season-High Three Points Friday
Danila Yurov

Scores Twice in Friday's Win
Alexis Lafrenière

Alexis Lafreniere Sets Up Three Goals in Winter Classic Win
Mika Zibanejad

Produces Historic Winter Classic Performance
Mackenzie Blackwood

Placed on Injured Reserve
Seth Jones

Sustains Upper-Body Injury in Winter Classic Loss
Linus Karlsson

Celebrates New Contract With Goal
Franz Wagner

Expected to Return "Within the Next Week"
T.J. Watt

Cleared to Play in Week 18
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Available Versus Charlotte
Karl-Anthony Towns

Out on Friday Night
Trevor Moore

Likely to Return Saturday
John Klingberg

Doubtful to Play Saturday
Isiah Pacheco

Could be Rested Against Raiders
Radko Gudas

on Track to Return Friday
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Officially Questionable for Week 18
Brayden McNabb

Considered Week-to-Week
De'Von Achane

Doubtful to Face the Patriots
Zach Werenski

Ready to Return Saturday
Ilya Sorokin

Comes Off Injured Reserve
Bo Horvat

Ruled Out for at Least One Week
Aaron Jones Sr.

Won't Play in Week 18
Omarion Hampton

Ruled Out for Week 18
Dallas Goedert

Ruled Out With Knee Injury
J.J. McCarthy

Will Start in Week 18
Javonte Williams

Ruled Out for Sunday
Alvin Kamara

Will Remain Out in Week 18
Davante Adams

Questionable to Play in Week 18
Kyren Williams

Questionable to Play in Week 18
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Questionable for Sunday
Drake London

Questionable for Season Finale
Harold Fannin Jr.

Ruled Out in Week 18
Harold Fannin Jr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 18
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable to Play in Week 18
Josh Allen

"Good to Go" Vs. Jets
CFB

Joey Aguilar Undergoes Surgery to Remove Tumor on Friday
CFB

Texas the "Team to Beat" for Transfer Running Back Isaac Brown
CFB

Rocco Becht to Follow Matt Campbell to Penn State?
CFB

Texas Targeting Cam Coleman in Transfer Portal
CFB

Former Texas Running Back CJ Baxter Visiting Kentucky
CFB

Beau Pribula Visiting Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Bo Bichette

Yankees Showing Interest in Bo Bichette
Houston Astros

Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai to Three-Year Deal
CFB

Lane Kiffin Interested in Sam Leavitt, Brendan Sorsby at LSU
CFB

Deuce Knight Officially Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Kewan Lacy Expected to Be Full-Go Against Georgia
CFB

Chip Kelly Named Northwestern Offensive Coordinator
CFB

Penn State Working to Hire D'Anton Lynn as Next Defensive Coordinator
CFB

Omar Cooper Expected to be Full-Go for Rose Bowl
CFB

Marcus Freeman Staying with Notre Dame for 2026 Season
CFB

Star Wideout Cam Coleman Entering Transfer Portal

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP