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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Stefon Diggs

Delivers Triple-Digit Yardage in Win
TreVeyon Henderson

Scores Hat Trick in Career-Best Outing
Brenton Strange

Limited Again on Thursday
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Says There's a "50-50" Chance he Returns to Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
KJ Simpson

Probable to Play Friday
Tory Horton

Downgraded to Non-Participant on Thursday
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Ausar Thompson

Unavailable Friday
Isaiah Stewart

in Danger of Missing Fourth Straight Game
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Won't Play Friday
P.J. Washington

Questionable Friday Against Clippers
Calvin Ridley

Limited in Practice on Thursday
Zion Williamson

to Remain Sidelined Friday
Malik Monk

Could Miss Another Game Friday
Dereck Lively II

Questionable Friday Versus Clippers
Brian Thomas Jr.

Limited Again on Thursday
Zach LaVine

Available for NBA Cup Action Friday
Jonathan Kuminga

Listed as Questionable for Friday
Domantas Sabonis

Considered Questionable for Friday
LaMelo Ball

Tagged as Probable for Friday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Expected to Return Friday
Jalen Duren

Listed Questionable For Friday Night, May Miss Second Straight Game
Bam Adebayo

to Remain Out Friday
Cade Cunningham

Listed As Questionable For Friday Night Against Philadelphia
Justin Fields

Playing for his Job on Thursday Night?
Anthony Davis

Listed as Questionable for Friday
LeBron James

Practices Thursday Without Lingering Pain
Joel Embiid

Won't Play on Friday
VJ Edgecombe

Questionable For Friday Night With Back Spasms
Day'Ron Sharpe

Listed as Probable for Friday Against Magic
Dylan Samberg

Makes Season Debut Thursday
Justin Fields

Expected to Start on Thursday Night Against Patriots
Samuel Girard

Available Thursday
Valeri Nichushkin

Considered Week-to-Week
Boone Jenner

Out Long-Term With Upper-Body Injury
Ricky Pearsall

Will Play in Week 11
Mikael Granlund

Returns to Action Thursday
Geno Smith

Not on the Week 11 Injury Report
Anthony Stolarz

Out Day-to-Day
Auston Matthews

Likely to Miss One Week
Brock Purdy

to Start in Week 11 Against Cardinals
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
J.K. Dobbins

Misses Second Straight Practice on Thursday
Xavier Worthy

Added to Thursday's Injury Report With Ankle Injury
Garrett Wilson

Jets Place Garrett Wilson on Injured Reserve Due to Knee Injury
C.J. Stroud

Officially Ruled Out for Sunday
Isiah Pacheco

Absent From Practice, Questionable for Sunday
Dalton Kincaid

Yet to Practice Ahead of Week 11 Matchup
Sam LaPorta

Misses Thursday Practice, Questionable for Week 11?
Lamar Jackson

Returns to Practice Thursday
Khalil Shakir

Dealing With Multiple Injuries
C.J. Stroud

Missing From Practice Again on Thursday
Matt Savoie

Collects Two Assists Wednesday
Artemi Panarin

Delivers Four Assists in Wednesday's Victory
Simon Nemec

Becomes Hat-Trick Hero Wednesday
Zack MacEwen

Exits Early Wednesday
Cody Glass

Exits With Injury Wednesday
Brandon Hagel

Injured in Wednesday's Loss
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year
Zach Hyman

Nearing Season Debut
Colten Ellis

to Make Second Career Start Wednesday
Adam Erne

to Miss "a Few Weeks"
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Return Wednesday
Andre Burakovsky

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Frank Nazar

Out on Wednesday
CFB

Still No Update on Jermod McCoy's Return Timeline
Sami Valimaki

Riding Momentum Into Bermuda
Matthieu Pavon

Struggling Through a Rough Season
Taylor Montgomery

Hopes to Get Back on Track at Port Royal
Ben Martin

a Risky Play at Bermuda Championship
Mark Hubbard

Primed for a Bounce-Back Week in Bermuda
Boone Jenner

Exits Win With Upper-Body Injury
Lee Hodges

Searching for a Spark in Bermuda
Frederik Andersen

Pulled by Concussion Spotter
Stephen Vogt

Wins Back-to-Back AL Manager of the Year Honors
Milwaukee Brewers

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager of the Year Again
Patrick Fishburn

Looking to Bounce Back in Bermuda
Eric Cole

Carrying Momentum into Bermuda
Tommy Edman

to Have Ankle Surgery Next Week
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Unlikely to Trade Ketel Marte
Roman Anthony

to Have a Normal Offseason
Jarren Duran

Red Sox Think Jarren Duran Needs a Fresh Start
MacKenzie Gore

Nationals Expected to Trade MacKenzie Gore?
Sahith Theegala

Finishes Tied for 27th at Bank of Utah Championship
Sam Stevens

Finishes Tied for 36th at Baycurrent Classic
Patrick Rodgers

Finishes Tied For Sixth at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke List

Finishes 75th at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied for 63rd at World Wide Technology Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied for 14th at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 46th at World Wide Technology Championship
Blades Brown

Finishes Tied for 18th at Korn Ferry Tour Championship
Tarik Skubal

Tigers Unlikely to Trade Tarik Skubal
Framber Valdez

Cubs Could Land Framber Valdez in Free Agency
Sandy Alcantara

Marlins Ready to Trade Sandy Alcantara
CFB

Nic Anderson Could Return for LSU this Season
Randy Brown

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Gabriel Bonfim

Extends His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Schnell

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Muslim Salikhov

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Uros Medic

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ismael Bonfim

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Chris Padilla

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Marco Tulio

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christian Leroy Duncan

Scores Second-Round Knockout Victory

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP