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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Jonathan Kuminga

Won't Return on Wednesday Evening
Paolo Banchero

Ruled Out for Remainder of Wednesday's Game
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year
Bilal Coulibaly

Without A Timetable For Return
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Upgraded To Probable For Matchup Versus Kings
Jonathan Kuminga

Active Wednesday, Not In Starting Lineup
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Downgraded to Unavailable on Wednesday
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Misses Practice With Back Injury Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

Sidelined Again on Wednesday
Jalen Duren

Downgraded Versus Chicago
Cade Cunningham

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Available to Suit Up Wednesday
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Won't Play on Wednesday Evening
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Sidelined on Wednesday
J.K. Dobbins

Not Practicing, IR Move Undecided
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Out Wednesday, Expected to Play in Week 11
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to Make Second Career Start Wednesday
Adam Erne

to Miss "a Few Weeks"
Paul George

Moving Closer to Return
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Return Wednesday
Joel Embiid

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Kayshon Boutte

Ruled Out for Thursday Night
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a Game-Time Call Wednesday
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Ruled Out For Thursday
Brock Purdy

Working Toward Starting Sunday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Sidelined on Wednesday
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Will Undergo Season-Ending Hip Surgery
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Not at Practice, Set for Another Missed Game?
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Nursing Hand Injury, Set to Play on Sunday
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"Should be Good to Go" on Sunday
Rico Dowdle

Held Out on Wednesday, Should Fantasy Managers be Worried?
Lamar Jackson

has Knee Soreness, "Should be Good" for Week 11
Garrett Wilson

Officially Ruled Out for Thursday Night
Brian Thomas Jr.

Practicing, on Track to Return in Week 11?
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Looking Sharp at Practice
Isiah Pacheco

Won't Practice on Wednesday
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Back at Wednesday's Practice
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"Making Good Strides" and "Running"
Jaxson Dart

in Concussion Protocol, Won't Start in Week 11
Jameis Winston

Will Start in Week 11 for Giants
Dalton Kincaid

Won't Practice on Wednesday
CFB

Still No Update on Jermod McCoy's Return Timeline
Rhamondre Stevenson

Expected to Reclaim Lead-Back Role When Healthy?
Sami Valimaki

Riding Momentum Into Bermuda
Matthieu Pavon

Struggling Through a Rough Season
Taylor Montgomery

Hopes to Get Back on Track at Port Royal
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a Risky Play at Bermuda Championship
Bradley Beal

Out with Hip Soreness
Mark Hubbard

Primed for a Bounce-Back Week in Bermuda
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Questionable with Back Spasms
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Questionable with Knee Sprain
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Exits Win With Upper-Body Injury
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Bilal Coulibaly

Out with Calf Contusion
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Pulled by Concussion Spotter
Valeri Nichushkin

Sustains Lower-Body Injury in Win
Thatcher Demko

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Tuesday
Thomas Chabot

Injured Versus Stars
Anthony Stolarz

Exits Early Tuesday
Auston Matthews

Hurt in Tuesday's Loss
Stephen Vogt

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Pat Murphy Named NL Manager of the Year Again
Patrick Fishburn

Looking to Bounce Back in Bermuda
Eric Cole

Carrying Momentum into Bermuda
Tommy Edman

to Have Ankle Surgery Next Week
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Unlikely to Trade Ketel Marte
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Jarren Duran

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MacKenzie Gore

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Sahith Theegala

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Finishes Tied For Sixth at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke List

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PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied for 14th at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 46th at World Wide Technology Championship
Blades Brown

Finishes Tied for 18th at Korn Ferry Tour Championship
Victor Hedman

Iffy for Wednesday
Ryan McDonagh

to Sit Out "a Few Games"
Charlie McAvoy

Back in Action Tuesday
Scott Laughton

Unavailable Tuesday
Ryan Strome

Won't Play Tuesday
Shayne Gostisbehere

Ready to Face Capitals
Thatcher Demko

Returns to Canucks Crease Tuesday
Tarik Skubal

Tigers Unlikely to Trade Tarik Skubal
Framber Valdez

Cubs Could Land Framber Valdez in Free Agency
Jake Walman

Plays Key Role in Comeback Victory
Sandy Alcantara

Marlins Ready to Trade Sandy Alcantara
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Motivated to Move Ketel Marte
Hunter Greene

Reds to Listen to Offers on Hunter Greene
Paul Skenes

Pirates Won't Trade Paul Skenes
Pete Alonso

Mets Expected to Let Pete Alonso Walk in Free Agency
Kyle Tucker

to Sign With Yankees, Blue Jays, or Dodgers
CFB

Nic Anderson Could Return for LSU this Season
Randy Brown

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Gabriel Bonfim

Extends His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Schnell

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Muslim Salikhov

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
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Wins Back-To-Back Fights
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Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Chris Padilla

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Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christian Leroy Duncan

Scores Second-Round Knockout Victory
Randy Brown

Set For UFC Vegas 111 Main Event
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Looks To Extend His Win Streak
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A Favorite At UFC Vegas 111
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Set For UFC Vegas 111 Co-Main Event
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Aims To Win Back-To-Back Fights
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Looks For His Fourth Consecutive Win
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Looks To Remain Unbeaten In The UFC
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Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
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Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 111 Main Card

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