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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Rasmus Ristolainen

Doesn't Finish Wednesday's Loss
Blake Coleman

Out Until Olympic Break
Aaron Gordon

Out Thursday
Isaiah Hartenstein

Available Thursday
Russell Westbrook

Questionable to Play Thursday
Zach LaVine

Returns From Two-Game Absence
Paul George

Expected to Play Against Kings
Joel Embiid

Probable Thursday
Steven Adams

Undergoes Season-Ending Ankle Surgery
Egor Demin

Won't Play Versus Denver
Cam Thomas

Resting on Thursday Night
Aaron Judge

Appears to be Past his Elbow Issues
Bo Nix

Expected to Resume Training in 4-6 Weeks
Dan Vladar

Returns to Flyers Crease
Denton Mateychuk

Back in Action Wednesday
Stephen Halliday

Unavailable Versus Avalanche
Ross Colton

Won't Play Wednesday
Devon Toews

Still Out Wednesday
Simon Holmstrom

Expected to Return Wednesday
Ryan Pulock

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Michael Penix Jr.

Thinks he'll be Ready by April
Evan Carter

Establishes a Goal to Steal 30 Bases
Edouard Julien

Traded to the Rockies
Cleveland Browns

Browns Hiring Todd Monken as Next Head Coach
Jack St. Ivany

to Miss Up to Eight Weeks After Surgery
Cody Glass

Exits Early Tuesday Night
Anton Lundell

Expected to Be Available Thursday
Jordan Kyrou

Jake Neighbours Knocked Out of the Lineup Tuesday
Elias Lindholm

Hurt in Tuesday's Win
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Exits With Injury Tuesday
Ondrej Palat

Devils Send Ondrej Palat to the Islanders
Collin Murray-Boyles

Listed as Questionable for Wednesday's Game
Jock Landale

Available for Wednesday's Tilt
Kel'el Ware

in Danger of Missing Another Game
Sahith Theegala

Off to Much Better 2026 Start
Davion Mitchell

Iffy for Wednesday
Gary Woodland

an Intriguing Option at Torrey Pines This Week
Norman Powell

Questionable Wednesday
Tyler Herro

Remains Out Wednesday
CJ Abrams

Giants Offer "Aggressive Pitch" for CJ Abrams
Andrew Putnam

Hopes to Keep Momentum Rolling This Week
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic to Be Re-Evaluated in One Week
Matthieu Pavon

Seeks to Return to 2024 Form at Torrey Pines
Luke List

Still Looking For Birdies at Torrey Pines
Jake Knapp

Faces Stiff Challenge at Farmers Insurance Open
Rasmus Hojgaard

Needs to Play Better at Torrey Pines
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Could Struggle at Farmers Insurance Open
J.J. Spaun

A Steady Option At Farmers Insurance Open
Andrew Novak

Looking For More Success At Torrey Pines
Denny McCarthy

A Wild Card At Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa

Looks To Keep Resurgence Going At Torrey Pines
Joe Highsmith

Struggling Heading Into Torrey Pines
Wyndham Clark

Looks To Carry Momentum Into Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau

Aims To Turn Things Around At Torrey Pines
Darius Garland

Won't Be Available Wednesday
Akshay Bhatia

Looks to Bounce Back at Torrey Pines
Franz Wagner

Won't Play Wednesday
Draymond Green

Expected to Return Wednesday
Kawhi Leonard

Available Against Jazz
Jordan Goodwin

Starts Against Nets
Paul Goldschmidt

Yankees Expressing Interest in Re-Signing Paul Goldschmidt
Bo Bichette

Won't Play in World Baseball Classic
NFL

Bill Belichick Won't be First-Ballot Hall of Famer
Leo Carlsson

to Miss Olympics
Alex Turcotte

Unavailable Tuesday
Carlos Correa

Won't Play for Puerto Rico in World Baseball Classic
Dylan Holloway

Remains Out Tuesday
Marco Rossi

to Return After Olympics
Thatcher Demko

Won't Return This Season
Si Woo Kim

Looks to Continue Incredible Run at Torrey Pines
Jason Day

has a Good Chance to Keep Momentum This Weekend
Keegan Bradley

has Good Course History at Torrey Pines
Billy Horschel

Isn't a Great DFS Option at Torrey Pines
Aaron Rodgers

Mike McCarthy Says he Wants Aaron Rodgers to Return
Will Zalatoris

Has a Shot to Challenge at the Farmers Insurance Open
Drake Maye

Expected to be Fine for Super Bowl
Tennessee Titans

Titans Set to Hire Brian Daboll as New Offensive Coordinator
Buffalo Bills

Bills Promote Joe Brady to Head Coach
CFB

Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi Signs with Michigan
CFB

Darian Mensah Reaches Settlement with Duke, Expected to Land at Miami
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Not Drawing Interest on Open Market?
Shedeur Sanders

Named as Pro Bowl Replacement
Framber Valdez

Among Many High-End Pitchers on Free-Agent Market
Jose Altuve

Won't Participate in World Baseball Classic
Harrison Bader

Agrees With Giants on Two-Year Deal
Paddy Pimblett

Drops Decision
Justin Gaethje

Becomes the New Interim-Lightweight Champion
Song Yadong

Suffers Unanimous Decision Loss
MMA

Sean O'Malley Gets Back In The Win Column
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Extends His Win Streak
Derrick Lewis

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Officially Hire Mike McDaniel as Offensive Coordinator
Nathan Eovaldi

Doesn't Expect Any Limitations in Spring Training
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Dominates in NFC Championship Game Win
Matthew Stafford

Plans to Return in 2026
CFB

Arthur Smith to Become Ohio State's Offensive Coordinator
Bo Nix

Sidelined for 12 Weeks With Broken Ankle
Jose Altuve

to Mainly Play Second Base
Yu Darvish

Considering Retirement
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Finalizing Deal to Make Mike McCarthy Their Head Coach
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez Signs Seven-Year Extension With Guardians
Gunnar Henderson

is Fully Healthy Heading into Spring Training
Tyreek Hill

Dolphins Expected to Release Tyreek Hill
Paddy Pimblett

Set For Interim Lightweight Title Fight
Justin Gaethje

An Underdog At UFC 324
Song Yadong

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Sean O'Malley Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Derrick Lewis

Returns At UFC 324
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Philip Rivers

Interviewing for Bills Head-Coaching Job
NFL

Fernando Mendoza Officially Declares for NFL Draft
CFB

Arch Manning Undergoes Foot Surgery
Dalton Kincaid

Played Through Torn PCL
CFB

College Football Playoff Expected to Remain a 12-Team Field in 2026

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP