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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mike Trout

Angels Open to Mike Trout Playing Center Field in 2026
Victor Wembanyama

Coming off the Bench on Tuesday Night
Rudy Gobert

Not on the Injury Report for Wednesday
Anthony Edwards

on the Injury Report Again for Wednesday Night
Ja Morant

Questionable for Wednesday's Meeting With Timberwolves
Saquon Barkley

Misses Practice With Stinger
RJ Harvey

Dealing With Rib Injury
Josh Jacobs

Intends to Play Against Bears on Saturday
Zach Bogosian

Misses Tuesday's Game
Marcus Johansson

Unavailable Tuesday
Artyom Levshunov

Scratched for Tuesday
Mathew Barzal

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Joseph Woll

Returns to Action Tuesday
Mike Matheson

Won't Play on Tuesday
Rasmus Ristolainen

Makes Season Debut Tuesday
Bam Knight

Cardinals Place Bam Knight on Injured Reserve
CFB

Kansas State's Jayce Brown Intends to Transfer
CFB

Nation's Leading Passer Drew Mestemaker to Enter Transfer Portal
Justin Crawford

Phillies Planning to Start Justin Crawford in Center Field
CFB

Jayden Maiava Signs New Deal to Return to USC
CFB

Aidan Mizell Won't Return to Florida, Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

East Carolina Targeting Jordan Davis as Next Offensive Coordinator
Patrick Mahomes

Targeting Week 1 Return in 2026
Cutter Gauthier

Scores Twice at MSG
CFB

Michigan QB Jadyn Davis Set to Enter Transfer Portal
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Travis Williams Joining Texas A&M Defensive Staff
Tim Stützle

Tim Stutzle Records Three Assists in Dramatic Win
Filip Forsberg

Nets 11th Career Hat Trick
Sam Reinhart

Pots Two Goals Against Lightning
Darcy Kuemper

Hurt Versus Stars
Gustav Forsling

Injured in Monday's Win
Brandon Hagel

Makes Early Exit Monday
Cooper Flagg

Becomes Youngest 40-Point Scorer in NBA History
Victor Wembanyama

May Come Off the Bench Again Tuesday
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic to Undergo MRI Tuesday
Sam Hauser

Tweaks Left Ankle Monday
Peyton Watson

Not Expected to Be Out Long-Term
Ja Morant

Injures Ankle in Monday's Win
Darren Waller

Hauls in Two Touchdowns in Monday Night Loss
Brandon Clarke

Still Out Monday
Rome Odunze

Considered Week-to-Week With Foot Injury
James Harden

Officially Active on Monday Night
Ja Morant

to Remain Under Minutes Restriction Monday
James Harden

a Game-Time Call Monday
John Konchar

to Be Re-Evaluated in Three Weeks
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Active on Monday
James Harden

Good to Go Monday
Tari Eason

Remains Out Monday
Daniel Gafford

to Be Limited to 17-20 Minutes Monday
Davante Adams

Considered Week-to-Week With Hamstring Injury
Kyle Filipowski

Starting Against Mavericks
Brandon Williams

Out Monday
Jaylen Warren

to Play Through Illness on Monday Night
Will Smith

Sharks Place Will Smith on Injured Reserve
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Expected to Return Before Christmas
Dylan Holloway

to Miss Six Weeks
Patrick Kane

Expected to Miss at Least Two Games
Quinton Byfield

Ruled Out for Monday
Mika Zibanejad

Won't Play on Monday
Connor Bedard

Out Until 2026
Bhayshul Tuten

to Miss a Few Weeks With Finger Injury
Joe Burrow

Will Start the Rest of the Season
Jayden Daniels

to be Shut Down for Final Three Games
Philip Rivers

Will Start Again in Week 16
Drake London

Falcons "Very Hopeful" Drake London Can Return in Week 16
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Dylan Raiola Entering His Name into Transfer Portal
Micah Parsons

MRI Confirms Torn ACL for Micah Parsons
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Cincinnati's Brendan Sorsby Plans to Transfer When Portal Opens
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia, Phillies Finalizing One-Year Deal on Monday
Jaylen Warren

Questionable for Monday Night Due to Illness
Bam Knight

has "Bad Sprain," Unlikely to Play in Week 16
Brandon Royval

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
CFB

Baylor, LSU, Miami Among Potential Suitors for DJ Lagway
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Aidan Chiles Will Enter Transfer Portal
Manel Kape

Shines At UFC Vegas 112
New York Jets

Jets Fire Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks
Kevin Vallejos

Gets Second-Round Knockout Win
Christian Watson

Avoids Long-Term Injury, Status for Week 16 Unclear
Giga Chikadze

Suffers His First Career Knockout Loss
CFB

Quarterback DJ Lagway Entering Transfer Portal
Cesar Almeida

Gets Dominated
Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Wins Sixth Fight In A Row
Teddye Buchanan

Ravens Linebacker Teddye Buchanan Believed to Have Torn ACL
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Melquizael Costa

Gets First-Round Knockout Win
Marcus Buchecha

Still Winless In The UFC
Kennedy Nzechukwu

And Marcus Buchecha Fight To Draw
Lance Gibson jr

Lance Gibson Jr. Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
King Green

Gets Back In The Win Column
Dallas Goedert

has Third Two-Touchdown Game on Sunday
Kenley Jansen

Agrees to One-Year Deal With Tigers
Merrill Kelly

Returns to Diamondbacks on Two-Year Deal
Jorge Polanco

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Mets
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Return to South Carolina in 2026
CFB

Washington State Expected to Hire Kirby Moore as Next Head Coach
CFB

Kyle Whittingham Stepping Down as Utah Head Coach
Manel Kape

Set For UFC Vegas 112 Main Event
Brandon Royval

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 112
Kevin Vallejos

Set For His Third UFC Fight
Giga Chikadze

In Dire Need Of Victory
Cesar Almeida

Set To Welcome Cezary Oleksiejczuk To The UFC
Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Maikel Garcia

Royals Agree on Five-Year Extension
Melquizael Costa

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Looks to Win Second Consecutive Fights
Marcus Buchecha

Looks To Bounce Back
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Sherrone Moore Charged with Home Invasion, Among Other Charges
CFB

Freddie Kitchens Fired from North Carolina Coaching Staff
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Bryce Underwood Could Leave Michigan Without Buyout
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Padres Not Considering Trading Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tarik Skubal

Tigers Engaged in "Serious Talks" Around Trading Tarik Skubal at the Winter Meetings
CFB

Chris Brazzell II Declaring for NFL Draft
CFB

Fernando Mendoza Named AP College Football Player of the Year
Raisel Iglesias

to Remain the Braves Closer
Robert Suarez

Agrees on Three-Year Deal With Braves
CFB

Sherrone Moore Remains in Police Custody

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