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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kevin Love

Available Tuesday
Kris Dunn

Cleared for Action Tuesday
Khris Middleton

is Available on Tuesday
Tyrese Martin

Won't Play Tuesday
Robert Williams III

is Ruled Out for Tuesday Night
Jalen Green

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Deni Avdija

is Available for Tuesday's Game
Evan Mobley

Out 1-3 Weeks Due to Calf Injury
Leo Carlsson

to Miss Olympics
Alex Turcotte

Unavailable Tuesday
Carlos Correa

Won't Play for Puerto Rico in World Baseball Classic
Dylan Holloway

Remains Out Tuesday
Marco Rossi

to Return After Olympics
Thatcher Demko

Won't Return This Season
Sam Malinski

Inks Four-Year Extension With Avalanche
Bryan Rust

Slapped With Three-Game Suspension
Si Woo Kim

Looks to Continue Incredible Run at Torrey Pines
Jason Day

has a Good Chance to Keep Momentum This Weekend
Keegan Bradley

has Good Course History at Torrey Pines
Cam Thomas

Will Be Available Tuesday in Phoenix
Billy Horschel

Isn't a Great DFS Option at Torrey Pines
Malik Monk

Ruled Out on Tuesday
Zach LaVine

Will Not Play Tuesday in New York
Aaron Rodgers

Mike McCarthy Says he Wants Aaron Rodgers to Return
Bilal Coulibaly

Ready to Return to Action Against Portland
Deni Avdija

Draws Another Questionable Tag on Tuesday
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Will Not Play Tuesday Against Clippers
Lauri Markkanen

Available Tuesday Night
Will Zalatoris

Has a Shot to Challenge at the Farmers Insurance Open
Adam Scott

Can Continue Hot Start to 2026 Season at Farmers Insurance Open
Keith Mitchell

Hoping For a Strong Finish at Farmers Insurance Open
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Continue Strong Start at Farmers Insurance Open
Tom Hoge

Can Continue Hot Start to 2026 Season at Farmers Insurance Open
Harris English

Has a Chance to Repeat as Winner at the Farmers Insurance Open
Patrick Cantlay

Continues Playing Well and Can Compete at Farmers Insurance Open
Ludvig Aberg

Looks to Bounce Back After Withdrawing at American Express
Drake Maye

Expected to be Fine for Super Bowl
Xander Schauffele

is The Best Fit at Torrey Pines This Week
Tennessee Titans

Titans Set to Hire Brian Daboll as New Offensive Coordinator
Justin Rose

Making 16th Start at Farmers Insurance Open
Maverick McNealy

is a Smart Play at Torrey Pines
Buffalo Bills

Bills Promote Joe Brady to Head Coach
Brooks Koepka

Making PGA Tour Return at Farmers Insurance Open
CFB

Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi Signs with Michigan
Teuvo Teravainen

Set to Return Tuesday
CFB

Darian Mensah Reaches Settlement with Duke, Expected to Land at Miami
Simon Edvinsson

Out Until Olympics
Josh Norris

Won't Play This Week
Zeev Buium

Lands on Injured Reserve
Brock Boeser

Canucks Place Brock Boeser on Injured Reserve
Sean Durzi

Hurt on Monday Night
Lauri Markkanen

Expected to Return Tuesday
Keyonte George

Resting Tuesday
Malik Monk

Tagged as Questionable for Tuesday
Zach LaVine

Iffy for Tuesday's Action
Kawhi Leonard

Questionable Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Without Timetable for Return
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Not Drawing Interest on Open Market?
Jonas Brodin

to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Kasperi Kapanen

Returns From Three-Game Absence Monday
Lawson Crouse

Available Against Lightning
Carson Soucy

Won't Play Monday
Rasmus Ristolainen

Returns to Flyers Lineup
Ryan Pulock

Misses Second Consecutive Game
Shedeur Sanders

Named as Pro Bowl Replacement
Simon Holmstrom

a Game-Time Call Monday
Framber Valdez

Among Many High-End Pitchers on Free-Agent Market
Jose Altuve

Won't Participate in World Baseball Classic
Harrison Bader

Agrees With Giants on Two-Year Deal
Paddy Pimblett

Drops Decision
Justin Gaethje

Becomes the New Interim-Lightweight Champion
Song Yadong

Suffers Unanimous Decision Loss
MMA

Sean O'Malley Gets Back In The Win Column
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Extends His Win Streak
Derrick Lewis

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Officially Hire Mike McDaniel as Offensive Coordinator
Nathan Eovaldi

Doesn't Expect Any Limitations in Spring Training
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Dominates in NFC Championship Game Win
Scott Wedgewood

Activated From Non-Roster List
Matthew Stafford

Plans to Return in 2026
CFB

Arthur Smith to Become Ohio State's Offensive Coordinator
Bo Nix

Sidelined for 12 Weeks With Broken Ankle
Jose Altuve

to Mainly Play Second Base
Yu Darvish

Considering Retirement
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Finalizing Deal to Make Mike McCarthy Their Head Coach
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez Signs Seven-Year Extension With Guardians
Gunnar Henderson

is Fully Healthy Heading into Spring Training
Tyreek Hill

Dolphins Expected to Release Tyreek Hill
Paddy Pimblett

Set For Interim Lightweight Title Fight
Justin Gaethje

An Underdog At UFC 324
Song Yadong

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Sean O'Malley Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Derrick Lewis

Returns At UFC 324
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Philip Rivers

Interviewing for Bills Head-Coaching Job
NFL

Fernando Mendoza Officially Declares for NFL Draft
CFB

Arch Manning Undergoes Foot Surgery
Dalton Kincaid

Played Through Torn PCL
CFB

College Football Playoff Expected to Remain a 12-Team Field in 2026
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Hire Jesse Minter as Their Head Coach
Indianapolis Colts

FBI Investigating the Death of Colts Owner Jim Irsay
MacKenzie Gore

Rangers Acquire MacKenzie Gore From the Nationals
Brandon Sproat

Dealt to Brewers in Four-Player Trade
Jett Williams

Brewers Acquire Jett Williams From Mets
Freddy Peralta

Mets Acquire Freddy Peralta From Brewers

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP