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Ryan's list of overrated and underrated CBB power rankings from AP, for 2023 NCAA college basketball teams for Week 13. Who are the most overvalued and undervalued college basketball teams after Week 12?
Two-thirds of the season have somehow already come and gone, which marks a certain realization point for a lot of college basketball teams across the country. These remaining games will either make or break a team's NCAA tournament resume. Devin Carter of Providence said it best after his dominant performance against Georgetown and his former coach this past weekend. "At this point in the season, can't lose any more home games. You have to take care of business."
Week 13 marked only the third week of the season that the top five teams experienced no movement. UConn, Purdue, UNC, Houston, and Tennessee went a combined 9-0 on the week, with no real scares to report. The same cannot be said of the remaining 20 teams in the AP Poll, with seven teams experiencing a fall, four of those dropping at least four spots.
It's time for the next article of a year-long series: Overrated and Underrated College Basketball Teams after the release of the weekly Associated Press Poll. All rankings listed are based on the Week 13 AP Poll.
Overrated College Basketball Teams For Week 13
Texas Tech Red Raiders: #20 to #15
There's no doubting that the Red Raiders have been one of the more impressive teams over the past week. They took care of business against BYU at home and then traveled to Oklahoma and upset the Sooners on the road by a point. While I do think Oklahoma is slightly overrated as well, winning on the road in this conference might be the hardest thing to do in the sport, so I want to give credit where credit is due. This team is currently at the top of the toughest conference in college basketball.
With that said, I don't believe Texas Tech competing at the top of the Big 12 is sustainable for a couple of reasons. The defense definitely has some sizeable question marks, currently ranked #67 on KenPom and allowing 76 points per game in league play when you take out one good performance against K-State.
Grant McCasland was a great hire from North Texas and has completed flipped the identity of this team to be more offensive-focused. The Red Raiders have had a top-five defense in college basketball three out of the past six years, including a No. 1 ranking in two of those years, but those days may be behind us.
Five out of six of Texas Tech's top scorers are new additions. Their lead man, Pop Isaacs, is the only returnee. Isaacs is a volume scorer at 17 points per game, but is not efficient (38% FG, 32% 3PT). Think of him as the Big 12's Wade Taylor. Both need a lot of shots to get theirs, but can take over a game when they are on.
Point guard Joe Toussaint is putting up career-best numbers after three years at Iowa and one at West Virginia. He's a natural fit in McCasland's offense. While these guys form one of the most underrated backcourts in the conference, this team is extremely prone to turning the ball over (17.9% -- third-worst in the Big 12), which is a concern especially when you consider they still have to travel to #18 Baylor, #12 Iowa State, and #25 TCU.
If the Red Raiders are able to pull off another road victory at TCU tonight, I will start to believe more, but I do think they will start to slip in the Big 12 standings. Right now, they are defying the odds. Some negative regression is likely in their future.
Underrated College Basketball Teams For Week 13
Alabama Crimson Tide: Unranked to #24
This team can flat-out score the basketball. Ranked as the No. 1 team in both adjusted offensive metrics on KenPom and EvanMiya, the Crimson Tide are an absolute juggernaut on that end of the floor with four guys in double figures, highlighted by Mark Sears' SEC-leading 20 points per game.
Four guys with over 10 points a night is impressive, but it's not otherworldly by any means. A plethora of teams also meet this criteria. What separates the Crimson Tide from other offenses is their depth. They have nine guys that average 10+ minutes per game, and eight of them all score over five points. Their three-point shooting is also remarkable, with five different players all shooting above 40% from long range (minimum 35 attempts).
The defensive definitely leaves quite a bit to be desired (#66 on KenPom), but at least for the regular season, this is less important when you're scoring over 100 points in regulation against conference foes (109 points vs. LSU on Saturday).
Their tournament prospects are less rosy because of their inability to rely on the defense, but that's not the purpose of this article. If you are a college basketball fanatic and haven't watched a Crimson Tide game yet, make an effort to catch one. This team scores so effortlessly at every level, while also rebounding the ball at a top-40 rate in the country. Mark Sears is a legitimate SEC Player of the Year candidate.
Northwestern Wildcats: Unranked (fourth in other receiving votes)
Two of the most fun teams to root for both reside in the Big 10 this year. Nebraska and Northwestern boast some huge wins on their resume and also have electric guard play. On the Northwestern side, it starts and ends with Boo Buie, who would likely win Big 10 Player of the Year if not for returning winner Zach Edey. The senior guard from Albany is fourth in the conference in points (18.5) and third in assists (5.3), leading his team to a current third-place Big 10 ranking vs. an eighth place preseason spot.
The analytics aren't the biggest fan of the Wildcats -- they reside outside the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom -- but they turn the ball over at one of the lowest rates in the country and play at a colossal pace. It reminds me of some old Tony Bennett Virginia teams, minus the exceptional defense.
While that isn't necessarily the best basketball to watch, the Wildcats score uber-efficiently, grinding their opponents down with long possessions and well-run offensive sets. They just took down an Illinois team that had Terrance Shannon Jr., with Buie going for 29 in the OT victory. This program has never won an NCAA tournament game, having only made the Big Dance twice in history. Chris Collins breaks that streak this season.
