X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Stop that Hype Train! Paul Richardson (WR, WAS)

Washington Redskins wide receiver Paul Richardson is an overhyped sleeper for 2018 fantasy football drafts. Justin Carter outlines the reasons why Richardson will be overdrafted and may be an ADP bust.

After four seasons in Seattle, wide receiver Paul Richardson signed a five-year, $40 million deal with Washington in free agency to join up with a new look offense that features quarterback Alex Smith replacing former Redskin and current Viking Kirk Cousins.

Coming off his best season in the NFL, Richardson has been on plenty of sleeper lists this off-season, but is the former second-round pick worth that hype? Will he find a place in Washington's receiving corps, or will Richardson fade into the background?

Let's look at some reasons why we'll ultimately look back on Paul Richardson as an overhyped sleeper by the end of the season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Paul Richardson's Ill-fit in Washington

2017 was unquestionably Paul Richardson's best season as a pro; his 44 catches, 703 yards, and six touchdowns all represented career highs for the receiver, but will a new team mean an increase in opportunities for Richardson?

Washington let Kirk Cousins go and brought in Alex Smith at quarterback. Smith has a resurgent 2017 campaign, throwing for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career and 26 touchdowns, topping his previous career best of 23. Other things that Smith posted his best numbers ever in: completion percentage, interception percentage, adjusted yards per attempt...really, by any metric 2017 was Alex Smith at his best, and he did it without a top second receiver thanks to the high-end talent the team had -- wide receiver Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce, and running back Kareem Hunt.

I bring Smith up here because what you think about Paul Richardson's ability to be successful this year depends greatly on what you think of Alex Smith's ability to be successful. Per Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs offensive line ranked ninth last season in pass-blocking efficiency, while Washington's line ranked 24th. Washington dealt with injuries up and down the line last season so some positive regression can be expected, but it doesn't seem like a reach to suggest that the line play Smith had early in the season. Remember: five of his seven best completion percentages came in the first five games when the Chiefs offensive line was playing its best football.

But enough about the quarterback! You're here to read about Paul Richardson, so let's talk about Paul Richardson.

First, the issue of the depth chart. Right now, Washington's depth chart lists three starting receivers: Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder, and Richardson. Crowder, who was in the slot 55.6 percent of the time in 2017, has a fairly solidified role as the slot receiver. While Smith has gone deep on a higher percentage of his throws every year since 2014, he still ranked just 15th in that category last year. Yes, Smith was the league's most accurate deep passer, but his career numbers suggest that was a blip. Except for a healthy dose of short and medium throws to Crowder this year. He's the best receiver Washington has. Between him and the tight ends -- a healthy Jordan Reed or Vernon Davis if Reed goes down -- the safer throws are covered.

That leaves the outside receiver position, where Doctson and Richardson will both see time. Doctson was in on 74.31 percent of Washington's offensive plays last season, the highest percentage of any of the team's receivers. Though he totaled just 35 catches for 502 yards and a catch rate of only 44.9 percent, Doctson flashed the potential that made him a first-round pick in 2016. His catch rate numbers are also torpedoed by a two catch game against Denver when Pro Football Reference credited him with 13 targets. In fact, over the final two games of the season, Doctson was targeted 23 times, though the raw production wasn't great. What I do feel good about with Doctson, though? A seven-game stretch where he caught 55.3 percent of his targets, resulting in 21 catches.

Paul Richardson's 4.40 40-yard dash time surpasses Doctson's 4.50 time, but PlayerProfiler puts Doctson in the 96th percentile for catch radius while Richardson ranks in the 77th percentile. Not bad, but a healthy Doctson -- he's dealt with minor injuries during camp -- should have the first crack as the WR1 in Washington.

Notice that I've talked around Richardson for most of this piece, instead focusing on the pieces around him as evidence why he won't break out this season. Honestly, I did this because I like Richardson a lot. He'll likely be the fourth option on this team, but he's going to be one of the most talented fourth options in the league. The problem, though, is that you're drafting Richardson late in your draft at a time when there are still players on the board who could be their team's third options. I love potential, but sometimes it all comes down to opportunity and fit when trying to figure out production. Richardson's fit in Washington on an offense that just downgraded at quarterback isn't great. Head coach Jay Gruden has had three top 50 fantasy wide receivers once, but that came with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Alex Smith...just a second, let me hit the enter button here for emphasis...

Alex Smith has supported two top 50 receivers ONCE in his career. That was in 2006. The WR2 finished 49th overall. His best finish from a WR3 is 81st. Consider me out on Paul Richardson for reasons that don't really have that much to do with Paul Richardson.

 

More Overvalued Draft Picks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez2 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk2 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Michael King2 hours ago

Fans 11 In Five Shutout Innings Tuesday
Christian Yelich3 hours ago

Hits First Homer Of Season, Steals Base Tuesday
Evan Engram3 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Anthony Bender3 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Robert Hassell III3 hours ago

Has Three-Hit Day At Triple-A
Thomas Harrington3 hours ago

Hit Hard In MLB Debut Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson3 hours ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer3 hours ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams3 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge3 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews4 hours ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones4 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin4 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice4 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep4 hours ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson4 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell4 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao4 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry4 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey4 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt5 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz5 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman5 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford6 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi6 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen6 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick6 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners6 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay7 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López7 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland7 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia7 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti7 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL7 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette7 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus7 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants7 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears7 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Sam Ehlinger8 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Guerschon Yabusele8 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns8 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals8 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Jevon Carter8 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry8 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips8 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith8 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball8 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter9 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey9 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton9 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale9 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant9 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal9 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II9 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons9 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young9 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser9 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo9 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud9 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart9 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba9 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga9 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry10 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown10 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault10 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere10 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn10 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro10 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions12 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans13 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders13 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear13 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins13 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL13 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä13 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway13 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys13 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal13 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy13 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris14 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk14 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth15 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp16 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim16 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood16 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau16 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole16 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith20 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment20 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka20 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov20 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov20 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes21 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman2 days ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF