Stop that Hype Train! Paul Richardson (WR, WAS)

August 16, 2018

Washington Redskins wide receiver Paul Richardson is an overhyped sleeper for 2018 fantasy football drafts. Justin Carter outlines the reasons why Richardson will be overdrafted and may be an ADP bust.

After four seasons in Seattle, wide receiver Paul Richardson signed a five-year, $40 million deal with Washington in free agency to join up with a new look offense that features quarterback Alex Smith replacing former Redskin and current Viking Kirk Cousins.

Coming off his best season in the NFL, Richardson has been on plenty of sleeper lists this off-season, but is the former second-round pick worth that hype? Will he find a place in Washington's receiving corps, or will Richardson fade into the background?

Let's look at some reasons why we'll ultimately look back on Paul Richardson as an overhyped sleeper by the end of the season.

Paul Richardson's Ill-fit in Washington

2017 was unquestionably Paul Richardson's best season as a pro; his 44 catches, 703 yards, and six touchdowns all represented career highs for the receiver, but will a new team mean an increase in opportunities for Richardson?

Washington let Kirk Cousins go and brought in Alex Smith at quarterback. Smith has a resurgent 2017 campaign, throwing for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career and 26 touchdowns, topping his previous career best of 23. Other things that Smith posted his best numbers ever in: completion percentage, interception percentage, adjusted yards per attempt...really, by any metric 2017 was Alex Smith at his best, and he did it without a top second receiver thanks to the high-end talent the team had -- wide receiver Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce, and running back Kareem Hunt.

I bring Smith up here because what you think about Paul Richardson's ability to be successful this year depends greatly on what you think of Alex Smith's ability to be successful. Per Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs offensive line ranked ninth last season in pass-blocking efficiency, while Washington's line ranked 24th. Washington dealt with injuries up and down the line last season so some positive regression can be expected, but it doesn't seem like a reach to suggest that the line play Smith had early in the season. Remember: five of his seven best completion percentages came in the first five games when the Chiefs offensive line was playing its best football.

But enough about the quarterback! You're here to read about Paul Richardson, so let's talk about Paul Richardson.

First, the issue of the depth chart. Right now, Washington's depth chart lists three starting receivers: Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder, and Richardson. Crowder, who was in the slot 55.6 percent of the time in 2017, has a fairly solidified role as the slot receiver. While Smith has gone deep on a higher percentage of his throws every year since 2014, he still ranked just 15th in that category last year. Yes, Smith was the league's most accurate deep passer, but his career numbers suggest that was a blip. Except for a healthy dose of short and medium throws to Crowder this year. He's the best receiver Washington has. Between him and the tight ends -- a healthy Jordan Reed or Vernon Davis if Reed goes down -- the safer throws are covered.

That leaves the outside receiver position, where Doctson and Richardson will both see time. Doctson was in on 74.31 percent of Washington's offensive plays last season, the highest percentage of any of the team's receivers. Though he totaled just 35 catches for 502 yards and a catch rate of only 44.9 percent, Doctson flashed the potential that made him a first-round pick in 2016. His catch rate numbers are also torpedoed by a two catch game against Denver when Pro Football Reference credited him with 13 targets. In fact, over the final two games of the season, Doctson was targeted 23 times, though the raw production wasn't great. What I do feel good about with Doctson, though? A seven-game stretch where he caught 55.3 percent of his targets, resulting in 21 catches.

Paul Richardson's 4.40 40-yard dash time surpasses Doctson's 4.50 time, but PlayerProfiler puts Doctson in the 96th percentile for catch radius while Richardson ranks in the 77th percentile. Not bad, but a healthy Doctson -- he's dealt with minor injuries during camp -- should have the first crack as the WR1 in Washington.

Notice that I've talked around Richardson for most of this piece, instead focusing on the pieces around him as evidence why he won't break out this season. Honestly, I did this because I like Richardson a lot. He'll likely be the fourth option on this team, but he's going to be one of the most talented fourth options in the league. The problem, though, is that you're drafting Richardson late in your draft at a time when there are still players on the board who could be their team's third options. I love potential, but sometimes it all comes down to opportunity and fit when trying to figure out production. Richardson's fit in Washington on an offense that just downgraded at quarterback isn't great. Head coach Jay Gruden has had three top 50 fantasy wide receivers once, but that came with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Alex Smith...just a second, let me hit the enter button here for emphasis...

Alex Smith has supported two top 50 receivers ONCE in his career. That was in 2006. The WR2 finished 49th overall. His best finish from a WR3 is 81st. Consider me out on Paul Richardson for reasons that don't really have that much to do with Paul Richardson.

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