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Bruce Matson explains why Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery is an overhyped sleeper and ADP bust for 2020 fantasy football drafts.
David Montgomery finished his rookie season with 889 rushing yards and six touchdowns while also catching 25 passes and 185 yards and one touchdown. This production allowed him to achieve RB24 along with two RB1 weeks and three RB2 weeks. He was able to reach this level of production as a rookie on a team that ranked 29th in the league in total offense. Judging from the surface, it appears Montgomery is destined to break out and become one of the top running backs in the league. Usually, when a rookie can put together some production and flash some of their talents, they are on a trajectory to jump to the next level of their career.
Even with Montgomery out of action over the last couple of weeks with a groin injury that could possibly prevent him from suiting up for week one against the Detroit Lions, he’s still holding significant value in redraft. If anything, he’s being considered a mid-round steal due to the injury-discount that is now being bestowed to many fantasy general managers.
The hype train isn’t out of control, but the train is still rolling down the tracks to fast. There are some things drafters need to be aware of before they go all-in and make the investment in Montgomery.
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Non-Elite Athleticism
Athleticism isn’t everything, but it matters. The fact that he ran a 4.63 40-yard dash which added to a 50th percentile size-adjusted speed score proves that he doesn’t have the homerun hitting speed to consistently bust out long gains. Combine that with a 10th percentile burst score and a 55th percentile agility score and you have a suboptimal athlete playing in one the toughest sports in the world.
The lack of athleticism really matters when a running back has to run behind a below-average offensive line. According to PFF, the Bears line ranked 20th in the league with a 58.5 run-block rating last season. It’s not like he’s running through gaping holes where he can hit full speed when a reaches the second level of the defense. His compromised athleticism prevents him from being able to create something out of nothing when the play breaks down.
Bad offensive line play creates vision and trust issues for a young running back, making the player skittish during their approach to the line of scrimmage. Scheme fit can also derail a running back’s ability to hit his true potential. Both factors are at play with Montgomery. He was unable to maximize his opportunities by not having the feel or the ability to appropriately read his blocks when approaching the line of scrimmage.
Now, let’s pivot back to his less than desirable athleticism. When the hole breaks down or when Montgomery makes a wrong read, he doesn’t have the extra gear to bail him out, leaving him a sitting duck in the hole or behind the line of scrimmage. Unless he improves this part of his game, he won’t be around for long in the NFL.
Courtesy of Rotoviz
Even with him seeing a large portion of the touches, Montgomery provided volatile week to week production last season. There are no indicators suggesting that he will become more dependable in 2020. Jordan Howard was siphoning snaps from Montgomery last season, but we have a sample of him being the lead back from week ten to the end of the season. During that time, he only produced two RB2 weeks.
Courtesy of 4for4.com
Negative Team Context
Montgomery is playing behind a bad offensive line with less than optimal athleticism and has issues finding the running lane. What will magnify all those issues is the Bears’ strength of schedule which is brutal against the run this year. It appears we are going to see him run against some of the toughest defensive fronts during the early stages of the season with his scheduling starting to ease up when we approach the fantasy playoffs. If fantasy general managers are expecting to use him as their RB2 or even flex, then they might be in trouble because it appears that game scripts will not be in his favor during a large portion of the season.
According to Pro Football Outsiders, the Bears ranked 22nd in the league in plays ran while in a neutral game script. The slow-paced offense affects Montgomery and other players' ability to maximize their fantasy impact because fewer plays ran means there are fewer opportunities for the offensive player to put up numbers in the box score. This becomes a major issue when playing against a tough schedule because playing against tougher defenses naturally impacts the pace of the game.
Not only does Montgomery has to deal with bad offensive line play but he also has to deal with bad quarterback play. Mitchell Trubisky is projected to open the season as the team’s starting quarterback with Nick Foles waiting in the wings. This is not a luxurious situation. Trubisky ranked 33rd among quarterback 141 drop backs or more with a 71.1 adjusted completion percentage and ranked 33rd among quarterbacks with a 93.0 quarterback rating while dealing with a clean pocket.
Trubisky’s inability to move the chains and maintain drives will also squander a lot of opportunities for Montgomery. It will also limit his touchdown ceiling because the Bears will have less chances in the red zone. The Bears are not expected to ahead in a lot of games where they are using Montgomery to run out the clock.
The fact that Montgomery will be starting the season coming back from a groin injury is a major red flag. This is an injury that is highly likely to reoccur during the season and could limit his touch-count during his first few games. What makes Montgomery valuable in fantasy football is the volume of touches he will likely see throughout the year. The injury jeopardizes his ability to consistently see a scalable workload through the season.
2020 Outlook
Montgomery is projected to be the alpha in the Bears’ backfield. He should see a large enough volume of work to at least make him flex worthy. However, his ceiling rather low and the groin injury makes his floor bottomless. Why invest in a player that doesn’t have the gusto to put your fantasy team over the top, but also carries enough risk to bottom out on your team anytime during the season.
To avoid busting in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts, fantasy gamers can always pivot to the wide receiver position. Instead of drafting Montgomery at a 65.7 ADP, fantasy managers can always turn to drafting Jarvis Landry, Tyler Boyd, Marquise Brown and even Evan Engram to avoid the risk of drafting Montgomery in fantasy drafts.
We all want to have a plethora of running backs on our roster since it’s the most malleable position in fantasy. We must keep in mind that not all running backs are worth the risk. Montgomery is a player that could be an anvil at the end of many fantasy rosters, weighing them down while preventing them from maximizing their week to week scoring outputs.
If you are playing to win, then don’t draft Montgomery.
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