Outfielders Ready to Break Out in 2020

March 16, 2020

Pierre Camus identifies outfielders who could break out in 2020 for fantasy baseball leagues. These OF are sleepers in the late portion of fantasy drafts.

Spring training is no more and the season has been delayed. That may unfortunately delay the ascent of budding young stars who were performing well this preseason and cementing a role on their team's Major League roster. Every fantasy baseball manager yearns to find the coveted breakout star; each of these players could potentially fit the bill in one way or another.

None of these players have produced remarkably in the pros yet, nor do they have any expected stats that indicate they were crushing the ball during a small sample size. These players have the chops and the minor-league track record, they simply need the opportunity.

ADP data comes courtesy of the NFBC and reflects draft position from March 1 - 15, 2020. All of these outfielders are being selected outside the top-300 overall draft picks and the top-80 outfielders. While they don't all belong on fantasy rosters to start the season, each should be considered as a viable late-round flier in mixed redraft leagues.

Seth Brown, Oakland Athletics

All eyes are focused on Ramon Laureano in Oakland's outfield after a strong second half that has cemented his spot at the top of the A's lineup. That's reflected in his ADP of 78 overall, however, so it could be argued that he has already established himself as a fantasy asset. A lesser-known prospect that could make waves is Seth Brown, who already has a spot on the 40-man roster and has made a case to earn a spot on the 26-man roster. Brown was batting .343 with one HR, eight RBI, and seven runs scored in Cactus League action before its suspension. An intercostal strain to right fielder Stephen Piscotty could leave an opening for Brown to see action early in the season, as he presents far more offensive upside than veteran Robbie Grossman.

Brown uses his 6'3", 220-lb frame to generate power from the left side. He clubbed 30 homers in Single-A, 14 in Double-A, then 37 in Triple-A a year ago. His 2019 power output was second in the Pacific Coast League, ahead of popular sleeper Sam Hilliard. The difference is that Hilliard plays in Coors, while Brown plays in the Oakland Coliseum, which had the second-lowest HR Factor for left-handed batters. There's a big difference between the PCL and the AL West, but Brown still has the chops to supply power like teammate Khris Davis if the at-bats are available. When looking for a power surge in the later rounds, Brown could be worth a shot.

Roman Quinn, Philadelphia Phillies

Quinn won't provide any semblance of power, but he can give you something more rare and valuable - speed. A sprint speed rating in the 99th percentile is a good starting point.

Quinn has only seen a part-time role on the big-league squad the past couple of years, totaling 239 at-bats the last two seasons. In that time, he's hit .239 and stolen 18 bases. As a career .280 hitter in the minors, he can probably do better with more consistency. The easiest comp is Mallex Smith, who stole a league-leading 46 bases despite hitting .227 last year. Smith did hit .296 the previous year, so it's not as if you have to completely sacrifice average to gain steals for a player like this. Quinn could become the National League version of Smith given the chance, but at an ADP about 300 spots later (501 overall). The only question is whether he ever grows into a full-time role.

It would seem that Jay Bruce has the inside track to start in left field for the Phillies while Adam Haseley holds down center field. The leash may not be long for either player though, as this team wants to make a run for the postseason. Quinn doesn't need to be drafted outside of NL-only leagues but should be monitored and added if he becomes a regular in the lineup.

Clint Frazier, New York Yankees

Between Aaron Judge's rib, Giancarlo Stanton's calf, and Aaron Hicks being Aaron Hicks, there are plenty of opportunities for a reserve Yankees outfielder to make an impact in 2020. Will it be Frazier, Mike Tauchman, Miguel Andujar or all of the above? While there may be room for all three on fantasy rosters, my money is on the only one who was once a top-20 prospect - that's Frazier.

You may recall that Red Thunder got off to a blazing start last season, batting .324 with six HR and 17 RBI in 68 April at-bats. He cooled down and then saw his playing time disappear starting in June once Judge returned. That shouldn't be a problem this season, unless Opening Day gets pushed back much farther than anticipated and either of the towering sluggers is back for good. As has been a common thread with all these young outfielders, Frazier could thrive with regular playing time. He posted a respectable 6.9 Brls/PA% last year, but that rate should grow to match his 60 raw power rating. Frazier can play either corner outfield spot and should finally get a chance to make his mark in the Bronx this year. He's being drafted after both Andujar and Tauchman but could wind up outproducing both.

Trent Grisham, San Diego Padres

Grisham nearly matches Quinn in sprint speed, ranking in the 93rd percentile, but his offensive profile fits closer to Frazier. Grisham showed off some of his power upon being called up by Milwaukee late last season but mostly struggled in his first taste of the majors. His expected slash line of .227/.302/.365 was a disappointment, leading the Brewers to move him to San Diego along with Zach Davies in exchange for Luis Urias and Eric Lauer. With Manuel Margot also on the move to Tampa, Grisham is now set to man center field and bat somewhere in the middle of the Friars' lineup.

Grisham does offer speed, having stolen 25 bases in his first pro season at Rookie ball and then 38 bases at Single-A Advanced. Those steal totals barely reached double-digits the last two years in Double-A and Triple-A, so 10 SB might be a reasonable expectation, especially considering we don't know how aggressive new manager Jayce Tingler will be. Fortunately, Grisham is growing into his power as his SB totals decline. After failing to reach double-digit dongs the previous four years in the minors, he jacked 26 in 2019 and added another six for the Brewers. His home ballpark isn't ideal for a budding power hitter, but this is one prospect who may not have to worry about playing time and will be surrounded by talented players like Manny Machado, Tommy Pham, and Fernando Tatis Jr. At age 23, he may not be ready to fully blossom yet and will have to hold off Franchy Cordero and fellow prospect Taylor Trammell for his job. If he does, Grisham could be a strong value.

Victor Reyes, Detroit Tigers

Reyes was a semi-popular sleeper since late last year after he batted .304 and stole nine bases in 69 games for Los Tigres. That excitement abated a bit when the organization signed veteran Cameron Maybin, who is essentially the same type of player at the same position. Reyes should still find plenty of at-bats for a rebuilding club if he performs well. There's also a good chance Maybin gets dealt midseason to a contender in need of an outfielder, He is now on his sixth different team in the last four seasons, after all.

As far as Reyes, he has a fairly strong 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed and could be a cheap source of speed. In addition, his .283 xBA ranked in the top-50 among batters with at least 100 PA, just behind Austin Meadows and Juan Soto. He won't do many favors in points leagues with a 3.7% walk rate in his brief Major League career. Consequently, his R+RBI potential will be limited if he stays at the bottom of the lineup for that reason. The best-case scenario has Reyes matching last year's .304 batting average with 20-25 steals at a cost of nothing more than a dollar in auctions or a last-round pick in snake drafts.

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