Outfielder Busts Due to Bounce Back in 2021

March 1, 2021

Matt Musico analyzes three outfielders who were busts last season that could bounce back strong in 2021 for fantasy baseball and could be undervalued draft targets.

MLB's 60-game regular season in 2020 was weird for a lot of reasons, but at the core of it, we experienced a baseball season that was more of a sprint than a marathon. Throw in the uncertainty of COVID-19 potentially wreaking havoc on the schedule at any moment in time, and making any kind of fantasy baseball roster move brought more questions to consider than ever before.

Baseball players aren't immune to this weirdness and uncertainty because, well, they're human beings just like the rest of us. This unique season included a number of players not living up to fantasy baseball expectations as they have in the recent past. While the past will be discussed, the focus will mainly be looking ahead to 2021 and why results for certain players will get back to normal.

As it currently stands, baseball is expected to return to being that 162-game marathon. This is welcome news but could make it slightly tricky for fantasy baseball owners to appropriately value players who disappointed last year. Here are three outfielders who should be bouncing back after a rougher than expected 2020 campaign.

Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP: 11.60

On the surface, Christian Yelich didn't have a horrible season for the Brewers, as he posted a 113 wRC+ with 12 home runs, 22 RBI, and 39 runs scored. It's just tough to view this as a solid year after he lit the world on fire in Milwaukee with a 167 wRC+ in 2018 and 175 in 2019, both of which included at least 7.0 fWAR. Add on the fact that his OPS in 2020 dropped down to .786 after two consecutive years of being at least 1.000, and yea, the people who drafted him likely felt a little let down.

It was great to see his walk rate jump nearly five percentage points to 18.6%, but that fact is less great when it's accompanied by an increase in strikeout rate from 20.3% to an eye-popping (in a bad way) 30.8%. Yelich's ground-ball rate also ticked back up in 2020 (43.2% to 50.8%) at the expense of his fly-ball rate (35.9% to 29.8%). However, he's shown an ability to be an elite producer with a batted-ball profile like that, especially since his hard-hit rate was still above 40.0% for the year.

The biggest problem for the 29-year-old outfielder was that his aggressiveness at the plate plummeted. While it was good to see his chase rate drop from 30.6% to 20.3%, it was unfortunate to watch his swing rate on strikes take a similar dive (71.2% to 60.1%). These decreases correlated to similar drops in contact rate, so it ultimately makes sense as to why his overall production took a step back last year.

Yelich had two of his best years (both in Milwaukee) with total swing rates at 44.0% in '18 and 45.2% in '19, before watching that number settle in at 34.6% in 2020. With a full year's worth of games on tap, Yelich will have the opportunity to make any necessary adjustments and get more aggressive at the plate on his way toward being an elite fantasy baseball contributor again in 2021.

Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers

ADP: 164.54

After three solid years between 2017 and 2019 (although 2019 was abbreviated because of injury), Joey Gallo took a step back in 2020. That three-year run included two seasons of at least 40 home runs, a slugging percentage that never dropped below .498 during a single season, a wRC+ that never dropped below 108, and three consecutive years of at least 2.7 fWAR.

Gallo still hit 10 home runs in 226 plate appearances this past year, but it was accompanied with a .197 ISO -- the first time that number has dipped below .292 since 2016 (.120 in 30 plate appearances). He finished the year with an 86 wRC+ and a rather anemic .181 batting average to go along with a bloated 35.0% strikeout rate. The thing is, though, a lot of the things we watched from Gallo in 2020 aren't necessarily new -- it's just a part of who we've come to know him as on the field.

The 35.0% strikeout rate was the fourth-highest among qualified hitters last year, but it was actually a new career-best mark for the outfielder in a single season. And yea, that .181 average was the second-lowest in baseball, but let's be honest -- it's not much different than previous years. In his two seasons of at least 40 homers, Gallo produced batting averages of .209 and .206. While he did post a .253 average in 297 plate appearances during the 2019 season, that appears to be an anomaly because of an ultra-inflated .368 BABIP (.270 career mark).

Gallo is one of the game's ultimate "three true outcomes" type of hitter, so we should be expecting lots of power and run production and not much else in other categories. Although his 91.2 mph average exit velocity was a few ticks below what it was the year before, Statcast still put him among the league's best in not only that category, but also hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

The jury is still out on how friendly Globe Life Park will be for hitters (22nd-best place for homers in 2020, according to ESPN's park factors), but that shouldn't be much of a concern right now because Gallo's power can play anywhere. His average home-run distance of 417 feet ranked among the 15 highest in baseball last year.

At his current ADP, FanGraphs' Steamer projections have him mostly outperforming what'd be expected of him from Nick Mariano's Expected Draft Values research, outside of the batting average benchmark. It'd be beneficial to nab someone with a track record of outperforming the expected power numbers expected while everyone else is down on him because of the things he's already known for: a high strikeout rate and a low batting average.

Kyle Schwarber, Washington Nationals

ADP: 192.82

Just a year removed from his best offensive campaign with the Chicago Cubs, Kyle Schwarber found himself getting non-tendered this winter and hitting the open market. Baseball makes life come at you fast.

But now he's on to a fresh start with the Nationals, hoping to regain some of the magic that led to a 38-homer and 92-RBI campaign for Chicago in 2019. Even though he finished 2020 with a career-low 91 wRC+ that also included a trip on the interstate with a .188 batting average, there were some positives to glean from an unusual season. He still hit 11 home runs and posted a .204 ISO, so the main portion of his offensive game is still there.

And after posting a career-high 93.5 mph average exit velocity in 2019, he followed that up with a 92.8 mph mark this past year. The biggest change between these two seasons, though, was Schwarber's launch angle -- it was just about cut in half, going from 15.5 degrees to 8.8. That obviously led to a career-worst 50.8% ground-ball rate, which explains the low .219 BABIP (.267 mark for his career).

His hard-hit rate settled in above 40.0% for the third consecutive year, so Schwarber's quality of contact isn't the problem -- it's picking which pitches to attack. Watching his 29.8% chase rate and 62.6% swing rate on strikes settle back into the 2018-19 levels (around 25.0% and 65.0%, respectively) will help. A full season will be very helpful for the left-handed slugger, though, because of his track record. He's enjoyed five seasons with at least 200 plate appearances, and his ground-ball rate has been above 41.0% in a single year just twice: this past season's 50.8% mark, and a 43.7% rate in 2018.

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